Uptake and utilization of directly acting antiviral medications for hepatitis C infection in U.S. veterans.

New drugs therapies have revolutionized the treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. The objectives of this study were to evaluate uptake and utilization of boceprevir and telaprevir in the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). We evaluated whether therapies conformed to response-guided protocols, whether they replaced standard interferon plus ribavirin treatment, and whether IL-28B was used to guide treatment. We performed an administrative data-based analysis of all patients receiving pharmacologic treatment for HCV in VA from October 2009 to July 2013. There were 12 737 new HCV prescriptions in VA during this time, with 5564 boceprevir or telaprevir prescriptions (44%) and 7173 prescriptions (56%) written for standard interferon plus ribavirin treatment. Prescriptions for the new treatments heavily favoured boceprevir vs telaprevir (83% vs 17%). Sixty-two percent (62%) of boceprevir-treated patients completed their minimum-specified protocol, while 69.2% of telaprevir-treated patients completed their minimum-specified protocol. From October 2010 to July 2012, 4090 patients had an IL-28B test; less than 16% of these tests guided subsequent HCV prescriptions. Uptake of boceprevir and telaprevir was rapid; the number of patients initiating treatment approximately doubled in the period after their introduction. While new prescriptions favor boceprevir or telaprevir over standard interferon plus ribavirin therapy, there appears to still be a strong role of interferon plus ribavirin in treating HCV patients. This work can inform our understanding of how other new effective HCV therapies will be used, their diffusion, and the timing of their diffusion in actual clinical practice.

Diagnosis of obstructive sleep apnea in adults: a clinical practice guideline from the American College of Physicians

DESCRIPTION: The American College of Physicians (ACP) developed this guideline to present the evidence and provide clinical recommendations on the diagnosis of obstructive sleep apnea in adults. METHODS: This guideline is based on published literature on this topic that was identified by using MEDLINE (1966 through May 2013), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. Searches were limited to English-language publications. The clinical outcomes evaluated for this guideline included all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, nonfatal cardiovascular disease, stroke, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, postsurgical outcomes, and quality of life. Sensitivities, specificities, and likelihood ratios were also assessed as outcomes of diagnostic tests. This guideline grades the evidence and recommendations by using ACP's clinical practice guidelines grading system. RECOMMENDATION 1: ACP recommends a sleep study for patients with unexplained daytime sleepiness. (Grade: weak recommendation, low-quality evidence). RECOMMENDATION 2: ACP recommends polysomnography for diagnostic testing in patients suspected of obstructive sleep apnea. ACP recommends portable sleep monitors in patients without serious comorbidities as an alternative to polysomnography when polysomnography is not available for diagnostic testing. (Grade: weak recommendation, moderate-quality evidence).(AU)

A randomized trial of computer-based reminders and audit and feedback to improve HIV screening in a primary care setting.

Despite recommendations for voluntary HIV screening, few medical centres have implemented screening programmes. The objective of the study was to determine whether an intervention with computer-based reminders and feedback would increase screening for HIV in a Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) health-care system. The design of the study was a randomized controlled trial at five primary care clinics at the VA Palo Alto Health Care System. All primary care providers were eligible to participate in the study. The study intervention was computer-based reminders to either assess HIV risk behaviours or to offer HIV testing; feedback on adherence to reminders was provided. The main outcome measure was the difference in HIV testing rates between intervention and control group providers. The control group providers tested 1.0% (n = 67) and 1.4% (n = 106) of patients in the preintervention and intervention period, respectively; intervention providers tested 1.8% (n = 98) and 1.9% (n = 114), respectively (P = 0.75). In our random sample of 753 untested patients, 204 (27%) had documented risk behaviours. Providers were more likely to adhere to reminders to test rather than with reminders to perform risk assessment (11% versus 5%, P < 0.01). Sixty-one percent of providers felt that lack of time prevented risk assessment. In conclusion, in primary care clinics in our setting, HIV testing rates were low. Providers were unaware of the high rates of risky behaviour in their patient population and perceived important barriers to testing. Low-intensity clinical reminders and feedback did not increase rates of screening.

Cost-effectiveness of voluntary HIV screening in Russia.

Russia has one of the world's fastest growing HIV epidemics, and HIV screening has been widespread. Whether such screening is an effective use of resources is unclear. We used epidemiologic and economic data from Russia to develop a Markov model to estimate costs, quality of life and survival associated with a voluntary HIV screening programme compared with no screening in Russia. We measured discounted lifetime health-care costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. We varied our inputs in sensitivity analysis. Early identification of HIV through screening provided a substantial benefit to persons with HIV, increasing life expectancy by 2.1 years and 1.7 QALYs. At a base-case prevalence of 1.2%, once-per-lifetime screening cost $13,396 per QALY gained, exclusive of benefit from reduced transmission. Cost-effectiveness of screening remained favourable until prevalence dropped below 0.04%. When HIV-transmission-related costs and benefits were included, once-per-lifetime screening cost $6910 per QALY gained and screening every two years cost $27,696 per QALY gained. An important determinant of the cost-effectiveness of screening was effectiveness of counselling about risk reduction. Early identification of HIV infection through screening in Russia is effective and cost-effective in all but the lowest prevalence groups.

Validation of two models to estimate the probability of malignancy in patients with solitary pulmonary nodules.

BACKGROUND: Effective strategies for managing patients with solitary pulmonary nodules (SPN) depend critically on the pre-test probability of malignancy. OBJECTIVE: To validate two previously developed models that estimate the probability that an indeterminate SPN is malignant, based on clinical characteristics and radiographic findings. METHODS: Data on age, smoking and cancer history, nodule size, location and spiculation were collected retrospectively from the medical records of 151 veterans (145 men, 6 women; age range 39-87 years) with an SPN measuring 7-30 mm (inclusive) and a final diagnosis established by histopathology or 2-year follow-up. Each patient's final diagnosis was compared with the probability of malignancy predicted by two models: one developed by investigators at the Mayo Clinic and the other developed from patients enrolled in a VA Cooperative Study. The accuracy of each model was assessed by calculating areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the models were calibrated by comparing predicted and observed rates of malignancy. RESULTS: The area under the ROC curve for the Mayo Clinic model (0.80; 95% CI 0.72 to 0.88) was higher than that of the VA model (0.73; 95% CI 0.64 to 0.82), but this difference was not statistically significant (Delta = 0.07; 95% CI -0.03 to 0.16). Calibration curves showed that the probability of malignancy was underestimated by the Mayo Clinic model and overestimated by the VA model. CONCLUSIONS: Two existing prediction models are sufficiently accurate to guide decisions about the selection and interpretation of subsequent diagnostic tests in patients with SPNs, although clinicians should also consider the prevalence of malignancy in their practice setting when choosing a model.

Cost-effectiveness of screening for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with cirrhosis due to chronic hepatitis C.

BACKGROUND: Screening for hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhotic patients using abdominal ultrasonography and alpha-foetoprotein levels is widely practiced. AIM: To evaluate its cost-effectiveness using a Markov decision model. METHODS: Several screening strategies with abdominal ultrasonography or computerized tomography and serum alpha-foetoprotein at 6-12-month intervals in 40-year-old patients with chronic hepatitis C and compensated cirrhosis were simulated from a societal perspective, resulting in discounted costs per quality-adjusted life-year saved. Extensive sensitivity analysis was performed. RESULTS: For the least efficacious strategy, annual alpha-foetoprotein/ultrasonography, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (vs. no screening) was $23 043/quality-adjusted life-year. Biannual alpha-foetoprotein/annual ultrasonography, the most commonly used strategy in the United States, was more efficacious, with a cost-effectiveness ratio of $33 083/quality-adjusted life-year vs. annual alpha-foetoprotein/ultrasonography. The most efficacious strategy, biannual alpha-foetoprotein/ultrasonography, resulted in a cost-effectiveness ratio of $73 789/quality-adjusted life-year vs. biannual alpha-foetoprotein/annual ultrasonography. Biannual alpha-foetoprotein/annual computerized tomography screening resulted in a cost-effectiveness ratio of $51 750/quality-adjusted life-year vs. biannual alpha-foetoprotein/annual ultrasonography screening. CONCLUSIONS: Screening for hepatocellular carcinoma is as cost-effective as other accepted screening protocols. Of the strategies evaluated, biannual alpha-foetoprotein/annual ultrasonography gives the most quality-adjusted life-year gain while still maintaining a cost-effectiveness ratio <$50 000/quality-adjusted life-year. Biannual alpha-foetoprotein/annual computerized tomography screening may be cost-effective.

Quantifying the population impact of a prophylactic Helicobacter pylori vaccine.

BACKGROUND: Helicobacter pylori vaccines, which have been suggested as promising interventions to control infection, are under development. We sought to quantify the potential population impact of a prophylactic H. pylori vaccine. METHODS: We developed a mathematical model that compartmentalized the population according to age, infection status and clinical state. A proportion of individuals was assumed to acquire infection and develop gastritis, duodenal ulcer (DU), chronic atrophic gastritis and gastric cancer (GC). We first simulated the model without vaccine intervention, to obtain estimates of H. pylori prevalence, and GC and DU incidences based on intrinsic dynamics. We then incorporated a prophylactic vaccine (80% efficacy, lifetime protection, 80% coverage) targeting all infants. We tested vaccination programs over unlimited as well as limited time spans. Analyses were performed for the US, Japan and a prototypical developing country. RESULTS: In the US, our model predicted a decrease in H. pylori prevalence from 12.0% in 2010 to 4.2% in 2100 without intervention. With 10 years of vaccination beginning in 2010, prevalence would decrease to 0.7% by year 2100. In the same period, incidence of H. pylori-attributable GC would decrease from 4.5 to 0.4 per 100,000 with vaccine (compared to 1.3 per 100,000 without vaccine). Incidence of H. pylori-attributable DU would decrease from 33.3 to 2.5 per 100,000 with vaccine (compared to 12.2 per 100,000 without vaccine). In Japan, incidence of H. pylori-attributable GC would decrease from 17.6 to 1.0 per 100,000 after 10 years of vaccination (compared to 3.0 per 100,000 without vaccine). In a prototypical developing country, after 10 years of vaccination, H. pylori-attributable GC would decrease from 31.8 to 22.5 per 100,000 by 2090, returning to the original level by mid-2100s. Under continuous vaccination, it would decrease to 5.8 per 100,000 by 2100. INTERPRETATION: In the US and Japan, a 10-year vaccination program would confer almost the same reduction in H. pylori and associated diseases as a vaccination effort that extends beyond 10 years. In developing countries, a continuous vaccination effort would be required to eliminate the pathogen and its associated diseases.

Cost-effectiveness of a potential vaccine for Coccidioides immitis.

Coccidioidomycosis, a systemic fungal infection, affects Americans living in the Southwest. We evaluated the cost- effectiveness of a potential vaccine against Coccidioides immitis. Using a decision model we developed, we estimate that among children, vaccination would saved 1.9 quality-adjusted life days (QALD) and $33 per person. Among adults, screening followed by vaccination would save 0.5 QALD per person and cost $62,000 per quality adjusted life year gained over no vaccination. If the birth cohort in highly endemic counties of California and Arizona were immunized in 2001, 11 deaths would be averted and $3 million would be saved (in net present value) over the lifetime of these infants. Vaccination of adults to prevent disseminated coccidioidomycosis would provide a modest health benefit similar in magnitude to other vaccines but would increase net expenditures. Vaccination of children in highly endemic regions would provide a larger health benefit and would reduce total health care expenditures.

Potential cost-effectiveness of prophylactic use of the implantable cardioverter defibrillator or amiodarone after myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: Clinical trials have shown that implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) improve survival in patients with sustained ventricular arrhythmias. OBJECTIVE: To determine the efficacy necessary to make prophylactic ICD or amiodarone therapy cost-effective in patients with myocardial infarction. DESIGN: Markov model-based cost utility analysis. DATA SOURCES: Survival, cardiac death, and inpatient costs were estimated on the basis of the Myocardial Infarction Triage and Intervention registry. Other data were derived from the literature. TARGET POPULATION: Patients with past myocardial infarction who did not have sustained ventricular arrhythmia. TIME HORIZON: Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: Societal. INTERVENTIONS: ICD or amiodarone compared with no treatment. OUTCOME MEASURES: Life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, number needed to treat, and incremental cost-effectiveness. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: Compared with no treatment, ICD use led to the greatest QALYs and the highest expenditures. Amiodarone use resulted in intermediate QALYs and costs. To obtain acceptable cost-effectiveness thresholds (

Publishing web-based guidelines using interactive decision models.

Commonly used methods for guideline development and dissemination do not enable developers to tailor guidelines systematically to specific patient populations and update guidelines easily. We developed a web-based system, ALCHEMIST, that uses decision models and automatically creates evidence-based guidelines that can be disseminated, tailored and updated over the web. Our objective was to demonstrate the use of this system with clinical scenarios that provide challenges for guideline development. We used the ALCHEMIST system to develop guidelines for three clinical scenarios: (1) Chlamydia screening for adolescent women, (2) antiarrhythmic therapy for the prevention of sudden cardiac death; and (3) genetic testing for the BRCA breast-cancer mutation. ALCHEMIST uses information extracted directly from the decision model, combined with the additional information from the author of the decision model, to generate global guidelines. ALCHEMIST generated electronic web-based guidelines for each of the three scenarios. Using ALCHEMIST, we demonstrate that tailoring a guideline for a population at high-risk for Chlamydia changes the recommended policy for control of Chlamydia from contact tracing of reported cases to a population-based screening programme. We used ALCHEMIST to incorporate new evidence about the effectiveness of implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICD) and demonstrate that the cost-effectiveness of use of ICDs improves from $74 400 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained to $34 500 per QALY gained. Finally, we demonstrate how a clinician could use ALCHEMIST to incorporate a woman's utilities for relevant health states and thereby develop patient-specific recommendations for BRCA testing; the patient-specific recommendation improved quality-adjusted life expectancy by 37 days. The ALCHEMIST system enables guideline developers to publish both a guideline and an interactive decision model on the web. This web-based tool enables guideline developers to tailor guidelines systematically, to update guidelines easily, and to make the underlying evidence and analysis transparent for users.

Accuracy of positron emission tomography for diagnosis of pulmonary nodules and mass lesions: a meta-analysis.

CONTEXT: Focal pulmonary lesions are commonly encountered in clinical practice, and positron emission tomography (PET) with the glucose analog 18-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) may be an accurate test for identifying malignant lesions. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the diagnostic accuracy of FDG-PET for malignant focal pulmonary lesions. DATA SOURCES: Studies published between January 1966 and September 2000 in the MEDLINE and CANCERLIT databases; reference lists of identified studies; abstracts from recent conference proceedings; and direct contact with investigators. STUDY SELECTION: Studies that examined FDG-PET or FDG with a modified gamma camera in coincidence mode for diagnosis of focal pulmonary lesions; enrolled at least 10 participants with pulmonary nodules or masses, including at least 5 participants with malignant lesions; and presented sufficient data to permit calculation of sensitivity and specificity were included in the analysis. DATA EXTRACTION: Two reviewers independently assessed study quality and abstracted data regarding prevalence of malignancy and sensitivity and specificity of the imaging test. Disagreements were resolved by discussion. DATA SYNTHESIS: We used a meta-analytic method to construct summary receiver operating characteristic curves. Forty studies met inclusion criteria. Study methodological quality was fair. Sample sizes were small and blinding was often incomplete. For 1474 focal pulmonary lesions of any size, the maximum joint sensitivity and specificity (the upper left point on the receiver operating characteristic curve at which sensitivity and specificity are equal) of FDG-PET was 91.2% (95% confidence interval, 89.1%-92.9%). In current practice, FDG-PET operates at a point on the summary receiver operating characteristic curve that corresponds approximately to a sensitivity and specificity of 96.8% and 77.8%, respectively. There was no difference in diagnostic accuracy for pulmonary nodules compared with lesions of any size (P =.43), for semiquantitative methods of image interpretation compared with qualitative methods (P =.52), or for FDG-PET compared with FDG imaging with a modified gamma camera in coincidence mode (P =.19). CONCLUSIONS: Positron emission tomography with 18-fluorodeoxyglucose is an accurate noninvasive imaging test for diagnosis of pulmonary nodules and larger mass lesions, although few data exist for nodules smaller than 1 cm in diameter. In current practice, FDG-PET has high sensitivity and intermediate specificity for malignancy.

Employment and alcohol use after liver transplantation for alcoholic and nonalcoholic liver disease: a systematic review.

The purpose of the study is to evaluate patterns of employment and alcohol use among liver transplant recipients with alcoholic (ALD) and nonalcoholic liver disease (non-ALD). MEDLINE, EMBASE, and bibliographic searches identified 5,505 potentially relevant articles published between January 1966 and October 1998. Eighty-two studies reporting data on 5,020 transplant recipients met our inclusion criteria. Pre-orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT), 29% of transplant recipients with ALD and 59% of those with non-ALD worked versus 33% and 80% at 3 years for transplant recipients with ALD and non-ALD, respectively (P <.00001 for each interval). We found no difference in the proportion of transplant recipients with ALD and non-ALD reporting early alcohol use post-OLT: 4% versus 5% at 6 months and 17% versus 16% at 12 months. However, among post-OLT drinkers, transplant recipients with non-ALD were more likely to drink moderately and those with ALD to drink excessively. At 7 years post-OLT, 32% of the patients with ALD reported using alcohol. The odds ratio for alcohol use among patients who maintained abstinence for fewer than 6 months pre-OLT versus those who maintained abstinence for greater than 6 months was 7.8 (95% confidence interval, 4.0 to 15.3). Before OLT and at long-term follow-up, substantially more transplant recipients with non-ALD than ALD were employed. The proportions of transplant recipients with ALD and non-ALD reporting alcohol use did not differ, although those with ALD tended to consume greater quantities.

Cost-effectiveness of radiofrequency ablation for supraventricular tachycardia.

BACKGROUND: Radiofrequency ablation is an established but expensive treatment option for many forms of supraventricular tachycardia. Most cases of supraventricular tachycardia are not life-threatening; the goal of therapy is therefore to improve the patient's quality of life. OBJECTIVE: To compare the cost-effectiveness of radiofrequency ablation with that of medical management of supraventricular tachycardia. DESIGN: Markov model. DATA SOURCES: Costs were estimated from a major academic hospital and the literature, and treatment efficacy was estimated from reports from clinical studies at major medical centers. Probabilities of clinical outcomes were estimated from the literature. To account for the effect of radiofrequency ablation on quality of life, assessments by patients who had undergone the procedure were used. TARGET POPULATION: Cohort of symptomatic patients who experienced 4.6 unscheduled visits per year to an emergency department or a physician's office while receiving long-term drug therapy for supraventricular tachycardia. TIME HORIZON: Patient lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: Societal. INTERVENTIONS: Initial radiofrequency ablation, long-term antiarrhythmic drug therapy, and treatment of acute episodes of arrhythmia with antiarrhythmic drugs. OUTCOME MEASURES: Costs, quality-adjusted life-years, life-years, and marginal cost-effectiveness ratios. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: Among patients who have monthly episodes of supraventricular tachycardia, radiofrequency ablation was the most effective and least expensive therapy and therefore dominated the drug therapy options. Radiofrequency ablation improved quality-adjusted life expectancy by 3.10 quality-adjusted life-years and reduced lifetime medical expenditures by $27 900 compared with long-term drug therapy. Long-term drug therapy was more effective and had lower costs than episodic drug therapy. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: The findings were highly robust over substantial variations in assumptions about the efficacy and complication rate of radiofrequency ablation, including analyses in which the complication rate was tripled and efficacy was decreased substantially. CONCLUSIONS: Radiofrequency ablation substantially improves quality of life and reduces costs when it is used to treat highly symptomatic patients. Although the benefit of radiofrequency ablation has not been studied in less symptomatic patients, a small improvement in quality of life is sufficient to give preference to radiofrequency ablation over drug therapy.

Electronic trial banks: a complementary method for reporting randomized trials.

BACKGROUND: Randomized clinical trial (RCT) results are often difficult to find, interpret, or apply to clinical care. The authors propose that RCTs be reported into electronic knowledge bases-trial banks-in addition to being reported in text. What information should these trial-bank reports contain? METHODS: Using the competency decomposition method, the authors specified the ideal trial-bank contents as the information necessary and sufficient for completing the task of systematic reviewing. RESULTS: They decomposed the systematic reviewing task into four top-level tasks and 62 subtasks. 162 types of trial information were necessary and sufficient for completing these subtasks. These items relate to a trial's design, execution, administration, and results. CONCLUSION: Trial-bank publishing of these 162 items would capture into computer-understandable form all the trial information needed for critically appraising and synthesizing trial results. Decision-support systems that access shared, up-to-date trial banks could help clinicians manage, synthesize, and apply RCT evidence more effectively.

Projected long-term costs of coronary stenting in multivessel coronary disease based on the experience of the Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation (BARI).

BACKGROUND: Stents are now used in the majority of percutaneous coronary revascularization procedures. It is not clear whether the higher initial cost of stenting is later repaid by reducing costly complications and repeat revascularization procedures, especially for patients with multivessel disease. METHODS: To project the long-term costs of using coronary stents, angioplasty, or bypass surgery to treat patients with multivessel coronary artery disease, we developed a decision model based on the outcomes documented in the Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation (BARI) randomized trial of coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA). We studied 2 clinical strategies: provisional stenting of suboptimal PTCA results and primary stenting of all angiographically eligible lesions. The cost of CABG was also updated to reflect contemporary practice. RESULTS: Provisional stenting had lower projected costs over a 4-year period than either traditional PTCA (-$1742, or -3.4%) or contemporary CABG (-$832, or -1.7%), mostly because of reductions in emergency CABG after PTCA. In contrast, primary stenting had higher projected costs over a 4-year period than either PTCA (+$333, or +0. 7%) or contemporary CABG (+$1243, or +2.5%), mainly because of the higher initial procedure costs. These results were not substantially altered when we systematically varied the key parameters of the models in 1-way and 2-way sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: A primary stenting strategy in patients with multivessel disease has higher projected long-term costs than CABG. In contrast, a provisional stenting strategy in multivessel disease has lower projected costs than either PTCA or CABG.

Effect and outcomes of the ASGE guidelines on the periendoscopic management of patients who take anticoagulants.

OBJECTIVE: In December 1997, the American Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) issued guidelines regarding periendoscopic management of patients who take anticoagulants. They recommended that physicians substitute heparin for warfarin in their patients who have highly thrombotic conditions (e.g., a mechanical valve in the mitral position), and who will undergo high-risk procedures (e.g., polypectomy). The purpose of this study was to assess whether patient outcomes and anticoagulant management changed after the publication of the 1997 guidelines. METHODS: We collected utilization data on all 104 patients at the Veterans Affairs Palo Alto Health Care System who were taking chronic warfarin therapy and who underwent endoscopic procedures during the study period (1996-1999). These patients underwent 99 colonoscopies, 63 upper endoscopies, and nine endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatographies. According to the ASGE guidelines, 18 of these patients had highly thrombotic conditions, whereas the remaining 86 patients had relatively low thrombotic conditions. We calculated their costs for intravenous or subcutaneous heparin therapy from the perspective of society. We followed-up all patients for 3 months, to determine the incidence of thrombotic and hemorrhagic outcomes. RESULTS: No patient suffered a thromboembolism or a hemorrhage; thus, the adverse-event rate (95% confidence interval) was 0% (0-3%). As recommended by the ASGE guidelines, all five (100%) patients who had highly thrombotic conditions had heparin substituted for warfarin before undergoing high-risk procedures. This strategy was also followed in 44 (27%) of the 166 procedures in other patients: 16 high-risk procedures in low-risk patients, and 28 low-risk procedures (in 20 low-thrombotic patients and in eight high-thrombotic patients). There was no significant difference between the management of any patients before and after the publication of the guidelines. The average cost per course of heparin therapy (typically 2 days intravenous heparin preprocedure, and 3 days heparin administered subcutaneously postendoscopy) was $1684. In all, 44 (90%) of 49 courses of heparin substituted for warfarin therapy were not recommended by the guidelines. CONCLUSIONS: Patients treated by the ASGE guidelines had the same 0% rate of thrombosis as patients who received periendoscopic heparin outside of the guidelines. Following the ASGE guidelines in all patients would have reduced the use of heparin therapy by 90%, for a net savings of $74,100.

A dynamic transmission model for predicting trends in Helicobacter pylori and associated diseases in the United States.

To assess the benefits of intervention programs against Helicobacter pylori infection, we estimated the baseline curves of its incidence and prevalence. We developed a mathematical (compartmental) model of the intrinsic dynamics of H. pylori, which represents the natural history of infection and disease progression. Our model divided the population according to age, infection status, and clinical state. Case-patients were followed from birth to death. A proportion of the population acquired H. pylori infection and became ill with gastritis, duodenal ulcer, chronic atrophic gastritis, or gastric cancer. We simulated the change in transmissibility consistent with the incidence of gastric cancer and duodenal ulcer over time, as well as current H. pylori prevalence. In the United States, transmissibility of H. pylori has decreased to values so low that, should this trend continue, the organism will disappear from the population without targeted intervention; this process, however, will take more than a century.