ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Machine-learning algorithms are becoming popular techniques to predict ambient air PM2.5 concentrations at high spatial resolutions (1 × 1 km) using satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD). Most machine-learning models have aimed to predict 24 h-averaged PM2.5 concentrations (mean PM2.5) in high-income regions. Over Mexico, none have been developed to predict subdaily peak levels, such as the maximum daily 1-h concentration (max PM2.5). OBJECTIVE: Our goal was to develop a machine-learning model to predict mean PM2.5 and max PM2.5 concentrations in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area from 2004 through 2019. METHODS: We present a new modeling approach based on extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and inverse-distance weighting that uses AOD, meteorology, and land-use variables. We also investigated applications of our mean PM2.5 predictions that can aid local authorities in air-quality management and public-health surveillance, such as the co-occurrence of high PM2.5 and heat, compliance with local air-quality standards, and the relationship of PM2.5 exposure with social marginalization. RESULTS: Our models for mean and max PM2.5 exhibited good performance, with overall cross-validated mean absolute errors (MAE) of 3.68 and 9.20 µg/m3, respectively, compared to mean absolute deviations from the median (MAD) of 8.55 and 15.64 µg/m3. In 2010, everybody in the study region was exposed to unhealthy levels of PM2.5. Hotter days had greater PM2.5 concentrations. Finally, we found similar exposure to PM2.5 across levels of social marginalization. SIGNIFICANCE: Machine learning algorithms can be used to predict highly spatiotemporally resolved PM2.5 concentrations even in regions with sparse monitoring. IMPACT: Our PM2.5 predictions can aid local authorities in air-quality management and public-health surveillance, and they can advance epidemiological research in Central Mexico with state-of-the-art exposure assessment methods.
Subject(s)
Machine Learning , Meteorology , Humans , MexicoABSTRACT
RATIONALE: Associations between urban (outdoor) airborne particulate matter (PM) exposure and TB and potential biological mechanisms are poorly explored. OBJECTIVES: To examine whether in vivo exposure to urban outdoor PM in Mexico City and in vitro exposure to urban outdoor PM2.5 (< 2.5 µm median aerodynamic diameter) alters human host immune cell responses to Mycobacterium tuberculosis. METHODS: Cellular toxicity (flow cytometry, proliferation assay (MTS assay)), M. tuberculosis and PM2.5 phagocytosis (microscopy), cytokine-producing cells (Enzyme-linked immune absorbent spot (ELISPOT)), and signalling pathway markers (western blot) were examined in bronchoalveolar cells (BAC) and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) from healthy, non-smoking, residents of Mexico City (n=35; 13 female, 22 male). In vivo-acquired PM burden in alveolar macrophages (AM) was measured by digital image analysis. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: In vitro exposure of AM to PM2.5 did not affect M. tuberculosis phagocytosis. High in vivo-acquired AM PM burden reduced constitutive, M. tuberculosis and PM-induced interleukin-1ß production in freshly isolated BAC but not in autologous PBMC while it reduced constitutive production of tumour necrosis factor-alpha in both BAC and PBMC. Further, PM burden was positively correlated with constitutive, PM, M. tuberculosis and purified protein derivative (PPD)-induced interferon gamma (IFN-γ) in BAC, and negatively correlated with PPD-induced IFN-γ in PBMC. CONCLUSIONS: Inhalation exposure to urban air pollution PM impairs important components of the protective human lung and systemic immune response against M. tuberculosis. PM load in AM is correlated with altered M. tuberculosis-induced cytokine production in the lung and systemic compartments. Chronic PM exposure with high constitutive expression of proinflammatory cytokines results in relative cellular unresponsiveness.
