ABSTRACT
Dirofilariosis is a vector-borne zoonotic disease whose distribution is linked to the presence of culicid mosquitoes. Spain and Portugal are considered endemic countries; however, the distribution of dirofilariosis is not uniform. Our aim was to develop a more accurate risk model of dirofilariosis transmission for the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal) and the Balearic Islands (Spain). To do this, we used a set of key variables related to parasite transmission: the potential distribution of suitable habitats for Culex pipiens calculated via an ecological niche model (ENM) and the potential number of Dirofilaria spp. generations. The resulting model was validated with the prevalence and geolocation of D. immitis-infected dogs from all provinces and districts. In addition, the impact of possible future climatic conditions was estimated. A quantitative estimate of the risk of infection by Dirofilaria spp. was obtained at a resolution of 1 km2. The entire analyzed territory was susceptible to contact with the parasite. The highest risk of infection was found throughout the eastern coastal strip and the south of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, as well as in the areas surrounding the basins of the main rivers, and the lowest risk was located in the higher-altitude areas. We found a robust and positive relationship between the risk of dirofilariosis and the observed prevalence of infested dogs in the study area (ß ± SE = 3.32 ± 1.43 p < 0.05). In 2080, the percentage of territory gain for Cx. pipiens will increase to 49.98%, which will increase the risk of infection. This new model provides a high predictive value for the current and predicted presence and risk and can serve as a tool for the management and control of dirofilariosis.
ABSTRACT
Various factors are currently causing an increase in vector-borne parasitic diseases at a global scale; among them, some stand out, such as climatic disturbances derived from global change, the increase in movements of reservoir animals, or changes in land made by human activity. In the European continent, there have been an increasing number of epidemiological studies focused on the detection of these diseases, especially in dogs. In Spain, there are few epidemiological studies focused on the evaluation of the biotic and abiotic factors that may influence the distribution, such as climatic zones, orography, or presence of water reservoirs. The aim of this study was to analyze the prevalence and distribution of several canine vector-borne diseases caused by Dirofilaria immitis, Leishmania infantum, Anaplasma platys, and Ehrlichia canis in the autonomous community of Castilla y León, the largest region of the Iberian Peninsula, providing a geospatial approach based on a geographic information system (GIS) analysis. Blood from a total of 1,475 domestic dogs from the nine provinces of Castilla y León were analyzed. Also, a GIS analysis of the sample locations was carried out, taking into account the most important predictor variables. The prevalence in dogs infected by D. immitis was 7.19%, and the seroprevalence by L. infantum was 4.61 and 1.56% for A. platys and E. canis. Most of the infected animals were located in areas with stagnant water, irrigated agriculture, or riverbanks, always close to forest and woodland vegetation. These results indicate that dogs living in Castilla y León should take prophylactic measures to avoid infections.
