Human Social Behavior and Demography Drive Patterns of Fine-Scale Dengue Transmission in Endemic Areas of Colombia.

Dengue is known to transmit between humans and A. aegypti mosquitoes living in neighboring houses. Although transmission is thought to be highly heterogeneous in both space and time, little is known about the patterns and drivers of transmission in groups of houses in endemic settings. We carried out surveys of PCR positivity in children residing in 2-block patches of highly endemic cities of Colombia. We found high levels of heterogeneity in PCR positivity, varying from less than 30% in 8 of the 10 patches to 56 and 96%, with the latter patch containing 22 children simultaneously PCR positive (PCR22) for DEN2. We then used an agent-based model to assess the likely eco-epidemiological context of this observation. Our model, simulating daily dengue dynamics over a 20 year period in a single two block patch, suggests that the observed heterogeneity most likely derived from variation in the density of susceptible people. Two aspects of human adaptive behavior were critical to determining this density: external social relationships favoring viral introduction (by susceptible residents or infectious visitors) and immigration of households from non-endemic areas. External social relationships generating frequent viral introduction constituted a particularly strong constraint on susceptible densities, thereby limiting the potential for explosive outbreaks and dampening the impact of heightened vectorial capacity. Dengue transmission can be highly explosive locally, even in neighborhoods with significant immunity in the human population. Variation among neighborhoods in the density of local social networks and rural-to-urban migration is likely to produce significant fine-scale heterogeneity in dengue dynamics, constraining or amplifying the impacts of changes in mosquito populations and cross immunity between serotypes.

An eco-physiological model of the impact of temperature on Aedes aegypti life history traits.

Physiological processes mediate the impact of ecological conditions on the life histories of insect vectors. For the dengue/chikungunya mosquito, Aedes aegypti, three life history traits that are critical to urban population dynamics and control are: size, development rate and starvation mortality. In this paper we make use of prior laboratory experiments on each of these traits at 2°C intervals between 20 and 30°C, in conjunction with eco-evolutionary theory and studies on A.aegypti physiology, in order to develop a conceptual and mathematical framework that can predict their thermal sensitivity. Our model of reserve dependent growth (RDG), which considers a potential tradeoff between the accumulation of reserves and structural biomass, was able to robustly predict laboratory observations, providing a qualitative improvement over the approach most commonly used in other A.aegypti models. RDG predictions of reduced size at higher temperatures, but increased reserves relative to size, are supported by the available evidence in Aedes spp. We offer the potentially general hypothesis that temperature-size patterns in mosquitoes are driven by a net benefit of finishing the growing stage with proportionally greater reserves relative to structure at warmer temperatures. By relating basic energy flows to three fundamental life history traits, we provide a mechanistic framework for A.aegypti development to which ecological complexity can be added. Ultimately, this could provide a framework for developing and field testing hypotheses on how processes such as climate variation, density dependent regulation, human behavior or control strategies may influence A.aegypti population dynamics and disease risk.

The interactive roles of Aedes aegypti super-production and human density in dengue transmission.

BACKGROUND: A. aegypti production and human density may vary considerably in dengue endemic areas. Understanding how interactions between these factors influence the risk of transmission could improve the effectiveness of the allocation of vector control resources. To evaluate the combined impacts of variation in A. aegypti production and human density we integrated field data with simulation modeling. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using data from seven censuses of A. aegypti pupae (2007-2009) and from demographic surveys, we developed an agent-based transmission model of the dengue transmission cycle across houses in 16 dengue-endemic urban 'patches' (1-3 city blocks each) of Armenia, Colombia. Our field data showed that 92% of pupae concentrated in only 5% of houses, defined as super-producers. Average secondary infections (R(0)) depended on infrequent, but highly explosive transmission events. These super-spreading events occurred almost exclusively when the introduced infectious person infected mosquitoes that were produced in super-productive containers. Increased human density favored R(0), and when the likelihood of human introduction of virus was incorporated into risk, a strong interaction arose between vector production and human density. Simulated intervention of super-productive containers was substantially more effective in reducing dengue risk at higher human densities. SIGNIFICANCE/CONCLUSIONS: These results show significant interactions between human population density and the natural regulatory pattern of A. aegypti in the dynamics of dengue transmission. The large epidemiological significance of super-productive containers suggests that they have the potential to influence dengue viral adaptation to mosquitoes. Human population density plays a major role in dengue transmission, due to its potential impact on human-A. aegypti contact, both within a person's home and when visiting others. The large variation in population density within typical dengue endemic cities suggests that it should be a major consideration in dengue control policy.

Geographic variation in risk factors for SFG rickettsial and leptospiral exposure in Colombia.

In order to characterize the patterns of human exposure to spotted fever group (SFG) rickettsial and leptospiral infection, IgG surveys were conducted on 642 residents of ten different areas of the rural district of Necoclí, Colombia. Areas were selected based on forest cover and human settlement pattern, and individual risk factors were elucidated through multivariate logistic models, controlling for variance clustering within communities. Overall, prevalence of high antibody titers indicating previous exposure to SFG rickettsia and leptospira was 29.2% and 35.6%, respectively, and both were most prevalent in the same peri-urban neighborhood. Forest cover .10% demonstrated the strongest independent association with leptospiral exposure, followed by homes with outdoor storage sheds. Isolated rural housing was the only variable independently associated with SFG rickettsia exposure. Community-level variables significantly modified the effects of individual risk factors. For both pathogens the eldest quartile was less exposed in periurban areas although there was no age effect overall for either. Females living in population settlements were more exposed to SFG rickettsiae but there was no sex association in isolated rural houses. Similarly, in sites with forest cover .10%, individuals working at home had higher leptospira seroprevalence, but place of work was not a risk factor in areas of forest cover ,10%. These data suggest that the patterns of maintenance and/or exposure to leptospira and rickettsia vary across different human created landscapes and settlement patterns. While contrasting risk factors may reflect the unique transmission cycles of each pathogen, the observed patterns of geographic variation suggest that both diseases may respond similarly larger scale human-ecological dynamics.