Applying Convolutional Neural Networks to data on unstructured meshes with space-filling curves.

This paper presents the first classical Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) that can be applied directly to data from unstructured finite element meshes or control volume grids. CNNs have been hugely influential in the areas of image classification and image compression, both of which typically deal with data on structured grids. Unstructured meshes are frequently used to solve partial differential equations and are particularly suitable for problems that require the mesh to conform to complex geometries or for problems that require variable mesh resolution. Central to our approach are space-filling curves, which traverse the nodes or cells of a mesh tracing out a path that is as short as possible (in terms of numbers of edges) and that visits each node or cell exactly once. The space-filling curves (SFCs) are used to find an ordering of the nodes or cells that can transform multi-dimensional solutions on unstructured meshes into a one-dimensional (1D) representation, to which 1D convolutional layers can then be applied. Although developed in two dimensions, the approach is applicable to higher dimensional problems. To demonstrate the approach, the network we choose is a convolutional autoencoder (CAE), although other types of CNN could be used. The approach is tested by applying CAEs to data sets that have been reordered with a space-filling curve. Sparse layers are used at the input and output of the autoencoder, and the use of multiple SFCs is explored. We compare the accuracy of the SFC-based CAE with that of a classical CAE applied to two idealised problems on structured meshes, and then apply the approach to solutions of flow past a cylinder obtained using the finite-element method and an unstructured mesh.

Real-time updating of dynamic social networks for COVID-19 vaccination strategies.

Vaccination strategy is crucial in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the supply is still limited in many countries, contact network-based interventions can be most powerful to set an efficient strategy by identifying high-risk individuals or communities. However, due to the high dimension, only partial and noisy network information can be available in practice, especially for dynamic systems where contact networks are highly time-variant. Furthermore, the numerous mutations of SARS-CoV-2 have a significant impact on the infectious probability, requiring real-time network updating algorithms. In this study, we propose a sequential network updating approach based on data assimilation techniques to combine different sources of temporal information. We then prioritise the individuals with high-degree or high-centrality, obtained from assimilated networks, for vaccination. The assimilation-based approach is compared with the standard method (based on partially observed networks) and a random selection strategy in terms of vaccination effectiveness in a SIR model. The numerical comparison is first carried out using real-world face-to-face dynamic networks collected in a high school, followed by sequential multi-layer networks generated relying on the Barabasi-Albert model emulating large-scale social networks with several communities.

SARS-CoV2 in public spaces in West London, UK during COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Spread of SARS-CoV2 by aerosol is considered an important mode of transmission over distances >2 m, particularly indoors. OBJECTIVES: We determined whether SARS-CoV2 could be detected in the air of enclosed/semi-enclosed public spaces. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Between March 2021 and December 2021 during the easing of COVID-19 pandemic restrictions after a period of lockdown, we used total suspended and size-segregated particulate matter (PM) samplers for the detection of SARS-CoV2 in hospitals wards and waiting areas, on public transport, in a university campus and in a primary school in West London. RESULTS: We collected 207 samples, of which 20 (9.7%) were positive for SARS-CoV2 using quantitative PCR. Positive samples were collected from hospital patient waiting areas, from hospital wards treating patients with COVID-19 using stationary samplers and from train carriages in London underground using personal samplers. Mean virus concentrations varied between 429 500 copies/m3 in the hospital emergency waiting area and the more frequent 164 000 copies/m3 found in other areas. There were more frequent positive samples from PM samplers in the PM2.5 fractions compared with PM10 and PM1. Culture on Vero cells of all collected samples gave negative results. CONCLUSION: During a period of partial opening during the COVID-19 pandemic in London, we detected SARS-CoV2 RNA in the air of hospital waiting areas and wards and of London Underground train carriage. More research is needed to determine the transmission potential of SARS-CoV2 detected in the air.

Assessing uncertainty and heterogeneity in machine learning-based spatiotemporal ozone prediction in Beijing-Tianjin- Hebei region in China.

Accurate prediction of spatiotemporal ozone concentration is of great significance to effectively establish advanced early warning systems and regulate air pollution control. However, the comprehensive assessment of uncertainty and heterogeneity in spatiotemporal ozone prediction remains unknown. Here, we systematically analyze the hourly and daily spatiotemporal predictive performances using convolutional long short term memory (ConvLSTM) and deep convolutional generative adversarial network (DCGAN) models over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in China from 2013 to 2018. In extensive scenarios, our results show that the machine learning-based (ML-based) models achieve better spatiotemporal ozone concentration prediction performance with multiple meteorological conditions. A further comparison to the air pollution model-Nested Air Quality Prediction Modelling System (NAQPMS) and monitoring observations, the ConvLSTM model demonstrates the practical feasibility of identifying high ozone concentration distribution and capturing spatiotemporal ozone variation patterns at a high spatial resolution (here 15 km × 15 km).

Data Assimilation Predictive GAN (DA-PredGAN) Applied to a Spatio-Temporal Compartmental Model in Epidemiology.

We propose a novel use of generative adversarial networks (GANs) (i) to make predictions in time (PredGAN) and (ii) to assimilate measurements (DA-PredGAN). In the latter case, we take advantage of the natural adjoint-like properties of generative models and the ability to simulate forwards and backwards in time. GANs have received much attention recently, after achieving excellent results for their generation of realistic-looking images. We wish to explore how this property translates to new applications in computational modelling and to exploit the adjoint-like properties for efficient data assimilation. We apply these methods to a compartmental model in epidemiology that is able to model space and time variations, and that mimics the spread of COVID-19 in an idealised town. To do this, the GAN is set within a reduced-order model, which uses a low-dimensional space for the spatial distribution of the simulation states. Then the GAN learns the evolution of the low-dimensional states over time. The results show that the proposed methods can accurately predict the evolution of the high-fidelity numerical simulation, and can efficiently assimilate observed data and determine the corresponding model parameters.

Characteristics of fine and ultrafine aerosols in the London underground.

Underground railway systems are recognised spaces of increased personal pollution exposure. We studied the number-size distribution and physico-chemical characteristics of ultrafine (PM0.1), fine (PM0.1-2.5) and coarse (PM2.5-10) particles collected on a London underground platform. Particle number concentrations gradually increased throughout the day, with a maximum concentration between 18:00 h and 21:00 h (local time). There was a maximum decrease in mass for the PM2.5, PM2.5-10 and black carbon of 3.9, 4.5 and ~ 21-times, respectively, between operable (OpHrs) and non-operable (N-OpHrs) hours. Average PM10 (52 µg m-3) and PM2.5 (34 µg m-3) concentrations over the full data showed levels above the World Health Organization Air Quality Guidelines. Respiratory deposition doses of particle number and mass concentrations were calculated and found to be two- and four-times higher during OpHrs compared with N-OpHrs, reflecting events such as train arrival/departure during OpHrs. Organic compounds were composed of aromatic hydrocarbons and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) which are known to be harmful to health. Specific ratios of PAHs were identified for underground transport that may reflect an interaction between PAHs and fine particles. Scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) chemical maps of fine and ultrafine fractions show they are composed of Fe and O in the form of magnetite and nanosized mixtures of metals including Cr, Al, Ni and Mn. These findings, and the low air change rate (0.17 to 0.46 h-1), highlight the need to improve the ventilation conditions.

Enhancing high-fidelity nonlinear solver with reduced order model.

We propose the use of reduced order modeling (ROM) to reduce the computational cost and improve the convergence rate of nonlinear solvers of full order models (FOM) for solving partial differential equations. In this study, a novel ROM-assisted approach is developed to improve the computational efficiency of FOM nonlinear solvers by using ROM's prediction as an initial guess. We hypothesize that the nonlinear solver will take fewer steps to the converged solutions with an initial guess that is closer to the real solutions. To evaluate our approach, four physical problems with varying degrees of nonlinearity in flow and mechanics have been tested: Richards' equation of water flow in heterogeneous porous media, a contact problem in a hyperelastic material, two-phase flow in layered porous media, and fracture propagation in a homogeneous material. Overall, our approach maintains the FOM's accuracy while speeding up nonlinear solver by 18-73% (through suitable ROM-assisted FOMs). More importantly, the proximity of ROM's prediction to the solution space leads to the improved convergence of FOMs that would have otherwise diverged with default initial guesses. We demonstrate that the ROM's accuracy can impact the computational efficiency with more accurate ROM solutions, resulting in a better cost reduction. We also illustrate that this approach could be used in many FOM discretizations (e.g., finite volume, finite element, or a combination of those). Since our ROMs are data-driven and non-intrusive, the proposed procedure can easily lend itself to any nonlinear physics-based problem.

Digital twins based on bidirectional LSTM and GAN for modelling the COVID-19 pandemic.

The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has now spread throughout the globe infecting over 150 million people and causing the death of over 3.2 million people. Thus, there is an urgent need to study the dynamics of epidemiological models to gain a better understanding of how such diseases spread. While epidemiological models can be computationally expensive, recent advances in machine learning techniques have given rise to neural networks with the ability to learn and predict complex dynamics at reduced computational costs. Here we introduce two digital twins of a SEIRS model applied to an idealised town. The SEIRS model has been modified to take account of spatial variation and, where possible, the model parameters are based on official virus spreading data from the UK. We compare predictions from one digital twin based on a data-corrected Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory network with predictions from another digital twin based on a predictive Generative Adversarial Network. The predictions given by these two frameworks are accurate when compared to the original SEIRS model data. Additionally, these frameworks are data-agnostic and could be applied to towns, idealised or real, in the UK or in other countries. Also, more compartments could be included in the SEIRS model, in order to study more realistic epidemiological behaviour.

Numerical study of COVID-19 spatial-temporal spreading in London.

A recent study reported that an aerosolized virus (COVID-19) can survive in the air for a few hours. It is highly possible that people get infected with the disease by breathing and contact with items contaminated by the aerosolized virus. However, the aerosolized virus transmission and trajectories in various meteorological environments remain unclear. This paper has investigated the movement of aerosolized viruses from a high concentration source across a dense urban area. The case study looks at the highly air polluted areas of London: University College Hospital (UCH) and King's Cross and St Pancras International Station (KCSPI). We explored the spread and decay of COVID-19 released from the hospital and railway stations with the prescribed meteorological conditions. The study has three key findings: the primary result is that the concentration of viruses decreases rapidly by a factor of 2-3 near the sources although the virus may travel from meters up to hundreds of meters from the source location for certain meteorological conditions. The secondary finding shows viruses released into the atmosphere from entry and exit points at KCSPI remain trapped within a small radial distance of < 50 m. This strengthens the case for the use of face coverings to reduce the infection rate. The final finding shows that there are different levels of risk at various door locations for UCH; depending on which door is used there can be a higher concentration of COVID-19. Although our results are based on London, since the fundamental knowledge processes are the same, our study can be further extended to other locations (especially the highly air polluted areas) in the world.

The ventilation of buildings and other mitigating measures for COVID-19: a focus on wintertime.

The year 2020 has seen the emergence of a global pandemic as a result of the disease COVID-19. This report reviews knowledge of the transmission of COVID-19 indoors, examines the evidence for mitigating measures, and considers the implications for wintertime with a focus on ventilation.

An overview of methods of fine and ultrafine particle collection for physicochemical characterisation and toxicity assessments.

Particulate matter (PM) is a crucial health risk factor for respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. The smaller size fractions, ≤2.5 µm (PM2.5; fine particles) and ≤0.1 µm (PM0.1; ultrafine particles), show the highest bioactivity but acquiring sufficient mass for in vitro and in vivo toxicological studies is challenging. We review the suitability of available instrumentation to collect the PM mass required for these assessments. Five different microenvironments representing the diverse exposure conditions in urban environments are considered in order to establish the typical PM concentrations present. The highest concentrations of PM2.5 and PM0.1 were found near traffic (i.e. roadsides and traffic intersections), followed by indoor environments, parks and behind roadside vegetation. We identify key factors to consider when selecting sampling instrumentation. These include PM concentration on-site (low concentrations increase sampling time), nature of sampling sites (e.g. indoors; noise and space will be an issue), equipment handling and power supply. Physicochemical characterisation requires micro- to milli-gram quantities of PM and it may increase according to the processing methods (e.g. digestion or sonication). Toxicological assessments of PM involve numerous mechanisms (e.g. inflammatory processes and oxidative stress) requiring significant amounts of PM to obtain accurate results. Optimising air sampling techniques are therefore important for the appropriate collection medium/filter which have innate physical properties and the potential to interact with samples. An evaluation of methods and instrumentation used for airborne virus collection concludes that samplers operating cyclone sampling techniques (using centrifugal forces) are effective in collecting airborne viruses. We highlight that predictive modelling can help to identify pollution hotspots in an urban environment for the efficient collection of PM mass. This review provides guidance to prepare and plan efficient sampling campaigns to collect sufficient PM mass for various purposes in a reasonable timeframe.

How tall buildings affect turbulent air flows and dispersion of pollution within a neighbourhood.

The city of London, UK, has seen in recent years an increase in the number of high-rise/multi-storey buildings ("skyscrapers") with roof heights reaching 150 m and more, with the Shard being a prime example with a height of ∼310 m. This changing cityscape together with recent plans of local authorities of introducing Combined Heat and Power Plant (CHP) led to a detailed study in which CFD and wind tunnel studies were carried out to assess the effect of such high-rise buildings on the dispersion of air pollution in their vicinity. A new, open-source simulator, FLUIDITY, which incorporates the Large Eddy Simulation (LES) method, was implemented; the simulated results were subsequently validated against experimental measurements from the EnFlo wind tunnel. The novelty of the LES methodology within FLUIDITY is based on the combination of an adaptive, unstructured, mesh with an eddy-viscosity tensor (for the sub-grid scales) that is anisotropic. The simulated normalised mean concentrations results were compared to the corresponding wind tunnel measurements, showing for most detector locations good correlations, with differences ranging from 3% to 37%. The validation procedure was followed by the simulation of two further hypothetical scenarios, in which the heights of buildings surrounding the source building were increased. The results showed clearly how the high-rise buildings affected the surrounding air flows and dispersion patterns, with the generation of "dead-zones" and high-concentration "hotspots" in areas where these did not previously exist. The work clearly showed that complex CFD modelling can provide useful information to urban planners when changes to cityscapes are considered, so that design options can be tested against environmental quality criteria.