Modeling the distribution of the endangered Jemez Mountains salamander (Plethodon neomexicanus) in relation to geology, topography, and climate.

The Jemez Mountains salamander (Plethodon neomexicanus; hereafter JMS) is an endangered salamander restricted to the Jemez Mountains in north-central New Mexico, United States. This strictly terrestrial and lungless species requires moist surface conditions for activities such as mating and foraging. Threats to its current habitat include fire suppression and ensuing severe fires, changes in forest composition, habitat fragmentation, and climate change. Forest composition changes resulting from reduced fire frequency and increased tree density suggest that its current aboveground habitat does not mirror its historically successful habitat regime. However, because of its limited habitat area and underground behavior, we hypothesized that geology and topography might play a significant role in the current distribution of the salamander. We modeled the distribution of the JMS using a machine learning algorithm to assess how geology, topography, and climate variables influence its distribution. The best habitat suitability model indicates that geology type and maximum winter temperature (November to March) were most important in predicting the distribution of the salamander (23.5% and 50.3% permutation importance, respectively). Minimum winter temperature was also an important variable (21.4%), suggesting this also plays a role in salamander habitat. Our habitat suitability map reveals low uncertainty in model predictions, and we found slight discrepancies between the designated critical habitat and the most suitable areas for the JMS. Because geological features are important to its distribution, we recommend that geological and topographical data are considered, both during survey design and in the description of localities of JMS records once detected.

Phylogeographic structure of the dunes sagebrush lizard, an endemic habitat specialist.

Phylogeographic divergence and population genetic diversity within species reflect the impacts of habitat connectivity, demographics, and landscape level processes in both the recent and distant past. Characterizing patterns of differentiation across the geographic range of a species provides insight on the roles of organismal and environmental traits in evolutionary divergence and future population persistence. This is particularly true of habitat specialists where habitat availability and resource dependence may result in pronounced genetic structure as well as increased population vulnerability. We use DNA sequence data as well as microsatellite genotypes to estimate range-wide phylogeographic divergence, historical population connectivity, and historical demographics in an endemic habitat specialist, the dunes sagebrush lizard (Sceloporus arenicolus). This species is found exclusively in dune blowouts and patches of open sand within the shinnery oak-sand dune ecosystem of southeastern New Mexico and adjacent Texas. We find evidence of phylogeographic structure consistent with breaks and constrictions in suitable habitat at the range-wide scale. In addition, we find support for a dynamic and variable evolutionary history across the range of S. arenicolus. Populations in the Monahans Sandhills have deeply divergent lineages consistent with long-term demographic stability. In contrast, populations in the Mescalero Sands are not highly differentiated, though we do find evidence of demographic expansion in some regions and relative demographic stability in others. Phylogeographic history and population genetic differentiation in this species has been shaped by the configuration of habitat patches within a geologically complex and historically dynamic landscape. Our findings identify regions as genetically distinctive conservation units as well as underscore the genetic and demographic history of different lineages of S. arenicolus.

The amphibians and reptiles of Colima, Mexico, with a summary of their conservation status.

Colima is the fourth smallest Mexican state, covering only 0.3% of the surface area of Mexico, but due to the remarkable diversity of physiographic and environmental conditions present in Colima it contains a high biological diversity. We generated an up-to-date herpetofaunal checklist for Colima, with a summary of the conservation status of Colima's amphibians and reptiles. Our checklist contains a total of 153 species of amphibians and reptiles (three introduced). Thirty-nine are amphibians and 114 are reptiles. More than half of Colima's herpetofauna are Mexican endemics (66.7% of amphibians, 67.5% of reptiles). Less than 25% of the amphibian and reptile species in Colima are in protected categories according to the IUCN Red List and SEMARNAT. The reptiles in the Marine and Revillagigedo Archipelago regions are the most threatened taxa of the Colima herpetofauna. Colima shares > 80% of its herpetofauna with its neighboring states, Jalisco and Michoacán.

Nowhere to Go but Up: Impacts of Climate Change on Demographics of a Short-Range Endemic (Crotalus willardi obscurus) in the Sky-Islands of Southwestern North America.

Biodiversity elements with narrow niches and restricted distributions (i.e., 'short range endemics,' SREs) are particularly vulnerable to climate change. The New Mexico Ridge-nosed Rattlesnake (Crotalus willardi obscurus, CWO), an SRE listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act within three sky islands of southwestern North America, is constrained at low elevation by drought and at high elevation by wildfire. We combined long-term recapture and molecular data with demographic and niche modeling to gauge its climate-driven status, distribution, and projected longevity. The largest population (Animas) is numerically constricted (N = 151), with few breeding adults (Nb = 24) and an elevated inbreeding coefficient (ΔF = 0.77; 100 years). Mean home range (0.07 km2) is significantly smaller compared to other North American rattlesnakes, and movements are within, not among sky islands. Demographic values, when gauged against those displayed by other endangered/Red-Listed reptiles [e.g., Loggerhead Sea Turtle (Caretta caretta)], are either comparable or markedly lower. Survival rate differs significantly between genders (female

Linking irreplaceable landforms in a self-organizing landscape to sensitivity of population vital rates for an ecological specialist.

Irreplaceable, self-organizing landforms and the endemic and ecologically specialized biodiversity they support are threatened globally by anthropogenic disturbances. Although the outcome of disrupting landforms is somewhat understood, little information exists that documents population consequences of landform disturbance on endemic biodiversity. Conservation strategies for species dependent upon landforms have been difficult to devise because they require understanding complex feedbacks that create and maintain landforms and the consequences of landform configuration on demography of species. We characterized and quantified links between landform configuration and demography of an ecological specialist, the dunes sagebrush lizard (Sceloporus arenicolus), which occurs only in blowouts (i.e., wind-blown sandy depressions) of Shinnery oak (Quercus havardii) sand-dune landforms. We used matrix models to estimate vital rates from a multisite mark-recapture study of 6 populations occupying landforms with different spatial configurations. Sensitivity and elasticity analyses demonstrated demographic rates among populations varied in sensitivity to different landform configurations. Specifically, significant relationships between blowout shape complexity and vital rate elasticities suggested direct links between S. arenicolus demography and amount of edge in Shinnery oak sand-dune landforms. These landforms are irreplaceable, based on permanent transition of disturbed areas to alternative grassland ecosystem states. Additionally, complex feedbacks between wind, sand, and Shinnery oak maintain this landform, indicating restoration through land management practices is unlikely. Our findings that S. arenicolus population dynamics depended on landform configuration suggest that failure to consider processes of landform organization and their effects on species' population dynamics may lead to incorrect inferences about threats to endemic species and ineffective habitat management for threatened or endangered species. As such, successful conservation of these systems and the biodiversity they support must be informed by research linking process-oriented studies of self-organized landforms with studies of movement, behavior, and demography of species that dwell in them.

Landscape pattern determines neighborhood size and structure within a lizard population.

Although defining population structure according to discrete habitat patches is convenient for metapopulation theories, taking this approach may overlook structure within populations continuously distributed across landscapes. For example, landscape features within habitat patches direct the movement of organisms and define the density distribution of individuals, which can generate spatial structure and localized dynamics within populations as well as among them. Here, we use the neighborhood concept, which describes population structure relative to the scale of individual movements, to illustrate how localized dynamics within a population of lizards (Sceloporus arenicolus) arise in response to variation in landscape pattern within a continuous habitat patch. Our results emphasize links between individual movements at small scales and the emergence of spatial structure within populations which resembles metapopulation dynamics at larger scales. We conclude that population dynamics viewed in a landscape context must consider the explicit distribution and movement of individuals within continuous habitat as well as among habitat patches.