ABSTRACT
Iran has increased its CO2 emissions significantly during the past few decades. The household sector in Iran contributes one of the largest sectors of CO2 emissions. Despite this significant contribution, the existing policies have predominantly concentrated on large-scale initiatives while overlooking the regional role in shaping and implementing these plans. Therefore, this study investigates the relationship between CO2 emissions and the efficient factors in three major groups including energy, climate, and household socio-economic factors. This study aims to address regional carbon emissions and develop CO2 reduction policies tailored to each region's specific circumstances. It focuses on planning strategies at the regional level to effectively tackle CO2 emissions. Household panel data of 28 provinces of Iran are employed by using both static and dynamic panel models for the years 2001 to 2019. Static estimation includes Fixed Effect (FE), Random Effect (RE) and pooled Partial least squares (PLS), Dynamic estimation includes difference Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). The empirical result of the static method showed positive dependence of household CO2 emissions on Heating Degree Days (HDD), Cooling Degree Days (CDD), precipitation level, oil consumption, gas consumption, household income, size of household, and also building stocks. In more detail, educational rate, dummy variable (removal of energy subsidy), and oil price reveal the greatest negative impact on the emissions with elasticities of - 0.428, - 0.31, and - 0.15; It represents 1% increase causes - 0.428, - 0.31, - 0.15, decrease CO2 emissions, respectively. however, household size, gas consumption, and oil consumption show the most significant positive effects on CO2 emissions with 1 percent increase causes CO2 emissions increases by 0.1, 0.044, and 0.026, respectively. Regarding the impact of climate factors, a 1% increase in Heating Degree Days, Cooling Degree Days, and precipitation level causes CO2 emissions increase by 0.024%, 0.004%, and 0.011% respectively, due to an increase in fossil energy demand. Results of the dynamic method of the system Generalized Method of Moments are similar to the static estimation results, except for that household size and urbanization are not significant. Also, removing the energy subsidy for fossil fuels due to substantial subsidy in fossil fuels in Iran or implementing a re-pricing energy policy can be a beneficial way to control carbon emissions from households within the provinces of the country. However, it is important to consider that this shift could potentially transfer subsidies to investments in the private sector for renewable energies.
ABSTRACT
Analyzing and understanding the driving factors behind CO2 emissions is noticeable due to increasing the awareness about CO2 emissions, and it is a highlight in Iran's agriculture sector because of the increasing amount of CO2 emissions, inefficient government policies, and rising fossil energy consumption in last decade. By considering the regional differences to investigate this aim, the Theil index and Kaya factor used to analysis the provincial inequality in CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and identify the driving factor. Using the Theil approach helps us to find out the inequality trend in CO2 emissions and energy consumption and also inequality across different provinces. In that way, the Kaya identity applied to analyze the factor behind the inequality in CO2 emissions. The empirical result shows some points, primary, according to the criteria and weights in the grouping methodologies, the GDP, due to the lower level of contribution in within-group inequality, is better than the population. Further, by assessing the inequality in the consumption of different forms of energy and CO2emissions across the provinces, most of the inequality was related to within-group, and the Theil trends are decreasing in gas and electricity; this trend is unclear and fluctuated in petroleum products and increase in CO2 emissions. Secondly, the first and second phases of subsidizing targeting have reduced the consumption and inequality of petroleum products and CO2emissions in the short term. Still, the inequality in CO2 emissions continues to increase recently. Thirdly, the national inequality in CO2emission mainly attributed to energy factors across provinces, and an increase in the energy inequalities helps to explain the CO2 inequality increase.
