A randomized trial examining the effect of predictive analytics and tailored interventions on the cost of care.

This two-arm randomized controlled trial evaluated the impact of a Stepped-Care intervention (predictive analytics combined with tailored interventions) on the healthcare costs of older adults using a Personal Emergency Response System (PERS). A total of 370 patients aged 65 and over with healthcare costs in the middle segment of the cost pyramid for the fiscal year prior to their enrollment were enrolled for the study. During a 180-day intervention period, control group (CG) received standard care, while intervention group (IG) received the Stepped-Care intervention. The IG had 31% lower annualized inpatient cost per patient compared with the CG (3.7 K, $8.1 K vs. $11.8 K, p = 0.02). Both groups had similar annualized outpatient costs per patient ($6.1 K vs. $5.8 K, p = 0.10). The annualized total cost reduction per patient in the IG vs. CG was 20% (3.5 K, $17.7 K vs. $14.2 K, p = 0.04). Predictive analytics coupled with tailored interventions has great potential to reduce healthcare costs in older adults, thereby supporting population health management in home or community settings.

Predictive analytics and tailored interventions improve clinical outcomes in older adults: a randomized controlled trial.

This study explored the potential to improve clinical outcomes in patients at risk of moving to the top segment of the cost acuity pyramid. This randomized controlled trial evaluated the impact of a Stepped-Care approach (predictive analytics + tailored nurse-driven interventions) on healthcare utilization among 370 older adult patients enrolled in a homecare management program and using a Personal Emergency Response System. The Control group (CG) received care as usual, while the Intervention group (IG) received Stepped-Care during a 180-day intervention period. The primary outcome, decrease in emergency encounters, was not statistically significant (15%, p = 0.291). However, compared to the CG, the IG had significant reductions in total 90-day readmissions (68%, p = 0.007), patients with 90-day readmissions (76%, p = 0.011), total 180-day readmissions (53%, p = 0.020), and EMS encounters (49%, p = 0.006). Predictive analytics combined with tailored interventions could potentially improve clinical outcomes in older adults, supporting population health management in home or community settings.

Predicting Unplanned Readmissions Following a Hip or Knee Arthroplasty: Retrospective Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Total joint replacements are high-volume and high-cost procedures that should be monitored for cost and quality control. Models that can identify patients at high risk of readmission might help reduce costs by suggesting who should be enrolled in preventive care programs. Previous models for risk prediction have relied on structured data of patients rather than clinical notes in electronic health records (EHRs). The former approach requires manual feature extraction by domain experts, which may limit the applicability of these models. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to develop and evaluate a machine learning model for predicting the risk of 30-day readmission following knee and hip arthroplasty procedures. The input data for these models come from raw EHRs. We empirically demonstrate that unstructured free-text notes contain a reasonably predictive signal for this task. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of data from 7174 patients at Partners Healthcare collected between 2006 and 2016. These data were split into train, validation, and test sets. These data sets were used to build, validate, and test models to predict unplanned readmission within 30 days of hospital discharge. The proposed models made predictions on the basis of clinical notes, obviating the need for performing manual feature extraction by domain and machine learning experts. The notes that served as model inputs were written by physicians, nurses, pathologists, and others who diagnose and treat patients and may have their own predictions, even if these are not recorded. RESULTS: The proposed models output readmission risk scores (propensities) for each patient. The best models (as selected on a development set) yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.846 (95% CI 82.75-87.11) for hip and 0.822 (95% CI 80.94-86.22) for knee surgery, indicating reasonable discriminative ability. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning models can predict which patients are at a high risk of readmission within 30 days following hip and knee arthroplasty procedures on the basis of notes in EHRs with reasonable discriminative power. Following further validation and empirical demonstration that the models realize predictive performance above that which clinical judgment may provide, such models may be used to build an automated decision support tool to help caretakers identify at-risk patients.

Provider- and Patient-Related Barriers to and Facilitators of Digital Health Technology Adoption for Hypertension Management: Scoping Review.

BACKGROUND: The uptake of digital health technology (DHT) has been surprisingly low in clinical practice. Despite showing great promise to improve patient outcomes and disease management, there is limited information on the factors that contribute to the limited adoption of DHT, particularly for hypertension management. OBJECTIVE: This scoping review provides a comprehensive summary of barriers to and facilitators of DHT adoption for hypertension management reported in the published literature with a focus on provider- and patient-related barriers and facilitators. METHODS: This review followed the methodological framework developed by Arskey and O'Malley. Systematic literature searches were conducted on PubMed or Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, and Excerpta Medica database. Articles that reported on barriers to and/or facilitators of digital health adoption for hypertension management published in English between 2008 and 2017 were eligible. Studies not reporting on barriers or facilitators to DHT adoption for management of hypertension were excluded. A total of 2299 articles were identified based on the above criteria after removing duplicates, and they were assessed for eligibility. Of these, 2165 references did not meet the inclusion criteria. After assessing 134 studies in full text, 98 studies were excluded (full texts were either unavailable or studies did not fulfill the inclusion criteria), resulting in a final set of 32 articles. In addition, 4 handpicked articles were also included in the review, making it a total of 36 studies. RESULTS: A total of 36 studies were selected for data extraction after abstract and full-text screening by 2 independent reviewers. All conflicts were resolved by a third reviewer. Thematic analysis was conducted to identify major themes pertaining to barriers and facilitators of DHT from both provider and patient perspectives. The key facilitators of DHT adoption by physicians that were identified include ease of integration with clinical workflow, improvement in patient outcomes, and technology usability and technical support. Technology usability and timely technical support improved self-management and patient experience, and positive impact on patient-provider communication were most frequently reported facilitators for patients. Barriers to use of DHTs reported by physicians include lack of integration with clinical workflow, lack of validation of technology, and lack of technology usability and technical support. Finally, lack of technology usability and technical support, interference with patient-provider relationship, and lack of validation of technology were the most commonly reported barriers by patients. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest the settings and context in which DHTs are implemented and individuals involved in implementation influence adoption. Finally, to fully realize the potential of digitally enabled hypertension management, there is a greater need to validate these technologies to provide patients and providers with reliable and accurate information on both clinical outcomes and cost effectiveness.

Learning to Identify Patients at Risk of Uncontrolled Hypertension Using Electronic Health Records Data.

Hypertension is a major risk factor for stroke, cardiovascular disease, and end-stage renal disease, and its prevalence is expected to rise dramatically. Effective hypertension management is thus critical. A particular priority is decreasing the incidence of uncontrolled hypertension. Early identification of patients at risk for uncontrolled hypertension would allow targeted use of personalized, proactive treatments. We develop machine learning models (logistic regression and recurrent neural networks) to stratify patients with respect to the risk of exhibiting uncontrolled hypertension within the coming three-month period. We trained and tested models using EHR data from 14,407 and 3,009 patients, respectively. The best model achieved an AUROC of 0.719, outperforming the simple, competitive baseline of relying prediction based on the last BP measure alone (0.634). Perhaps surprisingly, recurrent neural networks did not outperform a simple logistic regression for this task, suggesting that linear models should be included as strong baselines for predictive tasks using EHR.

Evaluating the Impact of a Web-Based Risk Assessment System (CareSage) and Tailored Interventions on Health Care Utilization: Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Soaring health care costs and a rapidly aging population, with multiple comorbidities, necessitates the development of innovative strategies to deliver high-quality, value-based care. OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study is to evaluate the impact of a risk assessment system (CareSage) and targeted interventions on health care utilization. METHODS: This is a two-arm randomized controlled trial recruiting 370 participants from a pool of high-risk patients receiving care at a home health agency. CareSage is a risk assessment system that utilizes both real-time data collected via a Personal Emergency Response Service and historical patient data collected from the electronic medical records. All patients will first be observed for 3 months (observation period) to allow the CareSage algorithm to calibrate based on patient data. During the next 6 months (intervention period), CareSage will use a predictive algorithm to classify patients in the intervention group as "high" or "low" risk for emergency transport every 30 days. All patients flagged as "high risk" by CareSage will receive nurse triage calls to assess their needs and personalized interventions including patient education, home visits, and tele-monitoring. The primary outcome is the number of 180-day emergency department visits. Secondary outcomes include the number of 90-day emergency department visits, total medical expenses, 180-day mortality rates, time to first readmission, total number of readmissions and avoidable readmissions, 30-, 90-, and 180-day readmission rates, as well as cost of intervention per patient. The two study groups will be compared using the Student t test (two-tailed) for normally distributed and Mann Whitney U test for skewed continuous variables, respectively. The chi-square test will be used for categorical variables. Time to event (readmission) and 180-day mortality between the two study groups will be compared by using the Kaplan-Meier survival plots and the log-rank test. Cox proportional hazard regression will be used to compute hazard ratio and compare outcomes between the two groups. RESULTS: We are actively enrolling participants and the study is expected to be completed by end of 2018; results are expected to be published in early 2019. CONCLUSIONS: Innovative solutions for identifying high-risk patients and personalizing interventions based on individual risk and needs may help facilitate the delivery of value-based care, improve long-term patient health outcomes and decrease health care costs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03126565; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03126565 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6ymDuAwQA).

Assessing the Usability of an Automated Continuous Temperature Monitoring Device (iThermonitor) in Pediatric Patients: Non-Randomized Pilot Study.

BACKGROUND: Fever is an important vital sign and often the first one to be assessed in a sick child. In acutely ill children, caregivers are expected to monitor a child's body temperature at home after an initial medical consult. Fever literacy of many caregivers is known to be poor, leading to fever phobia. In children with a serious illness, the responsibility of periodically monitoring temperature can add substantially to the already stressful experience of caring for a sick child. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this pilot study was to assess the feasibility of using the iThermonitor, an automated temperature measurement device, for continuous temperature monitoring in postoperative and postchemotherapy pediatric patients. METHODS: We recruited 25 patient-caregiver dyads from the Pediatric Surgery Department at the Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) and the Pediatric Cancer Centers at the MGH and the Dana Farber Cancer Institute. Enrolled dyads were asked to use the iThermonitor device for continuous temperature monitoring over a 2-week period. Surveys were administered to caregivers at enrollment and at study closeout. Caregivers were also asked to complete a daily event-monitoring log. The Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7 item questionnaire was also used to assess caregiver anxiety at enrollment and closeout. RESULTS: Overall, 19 participant dyads completed the study. All 19 caregivers reported to have viewed temperature data on the study-provided iPad tablet at least once per day, and more than a third caregivers did so six or more times per day. Of all participants, 74% (14/19) reported experiencing an out-of-range temperature alert at least once during the study. Majority of caregivers reported that it was easy to learn how to use the device and that they felt confident about monitoring their child's temperature with it. Only 21% (4/9) of caregivers reported concurrently using a device other than the iThermonitor to monitor their child's temperature during the study. Continuous temperature monitoring was not associated with an increase in caregiver anxiety. CONCLUSIONS: The study results reveal that the iThermonitor is a highly feasible and easy-to-use device for continuous temperature monitoring in pediatric oncology and surgery patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02410252; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02410252 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/73LnO7hel).

A Multimodal mHealth Intervention (FeatForward) to Improve Physical Activity Behavior in Patients with High Cardiometabolic Risk Factors: Rationale and Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Physical inactivity is one of the leading risk factors contributing to the rising rates of chronic diseases and has been associated with deleterious health outcomes in patients with chronic disease conditions. We developed a mobile phone app, FeatForward, to increase the level of physical activity in patients with cardiometabolic risk (CMR) factors. This intervention is expected to result in an overall improvement in patient health outcomes. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to evaluate the effect of a mobile phone-based app, FeatForward, on physical activity levels and other CMR factors in patients with chronic conditions. METHODS: The study will be implemented as a 2-arm randomized controlled trial with 300 adult patients with chronic conditions over a 6-month follow-up period. Participants will be assigned to either the intervention group receiving the FeatForward app and standard care versus a control group who will receive only usual care. The difference in physical activity levels between the control group and intervention group will be measured as the primary outcome. We will also evaluate the effect of this intervention on secondary measures including clinical outcome changes in global CMR factors (glycated hemoglobin, fasting blood glucose, blood pressure, waist circumference, Serum lipids, C-reactive protein), health-related quality of life, health care usage, including attendance of scheduled clinic visits and hospitalizations, usability, and satisfaction, participant engagement with the FeatForward app, physician engagement with physician portal, and willingness to engage in physical activity. Instruments that will be used in evaluating secondary outcomes include the Short-Form (SF)-12, app usability and satisfaction questionnaires, physician satisfaction questionnaire. The intention-to-treat approach will be used to evaluate outcomes. All outcomes will be measured longitudinally at baseline, midpoint (3 months), and 6 months. Our primary outcome, physical activity, will be assessed by mixed-model analysis of variance with intervention assignment as between-group factor and time as within-subject factor. A similar approach will be used to analyze continuous secondary outcomes while categorical outcomes will be analyzed by chi-square test. RESULTS: The study is still in progress and we hope to have the results by the end of 2016. CONCLUSIONS: The mobile phone-based app, FeatForward, could lead to significant improvements in physical activity and other CMR factors in patients.