ABSTRACT
Aedes aegypti is the main vector of dengue in the Americas and is also a transmitter of urban yellow fever arboviruses, Zika, and Chikungunya, all of which have substantial economic impacts on the affected countries. Through mathematical models, the influence of climatic factors on the oviposition of Ae. aegypti was determined. The data were collected in the city of Apucarana, Paraná State, using oviposition traps. Daily data were submitted to a negative binomial regression model (p < 0.05). The analyses were performed using the R statistical program to determine the climatic factors that most influenced oviposition. A Poisson regression showed that the variables temperature, atmospheric pressure, humidity, and precipitation significantly increased the number of eggs. However, using the semi-normal probability graph with a simulation envelope, it was determined that the Poisson regression model was not adequate to explain the relationships between the variables. Thus, a negative binomial regression model was used, which overcame the problem of overdispersion, and showed that only temperature affected the increase in the number of eggs, where an increase of 1 °C was expected to result in a 54.03% increase in the number of Ae. aegypti eggs.
