Abundance-based detectability in a spatially-explicit metapopulation: a case study on a vulnerable beetle species in hollow trees.

In many fragmented habitats, the detectability of a population in a habitat patch closely depends on the local abundance of individuals. However, metapopulation studies rarely connect abundance and detectability. We propose a framework for using abundance-based estimates of detectability in the analysis of a spatially-explicit stochastic patch occupancy model (SPOM). We illustrate our approach with the example of Tenebrio opacus, a beetle inhabiting hollows in old trees, and have based it on a 6-year monitoring programme of adult beetles in an area harbouring a high density of old oaks. We validated our abundance-based methodology by showing that the estimates of detectability were positively and significantly correlated with those obtained from presence/absence data (Pearson r = 0.54, p < 2E-16) in our study system. We further showed that the height of the hollow on the tree and the area of its entrance hole, the living status and girth of the host tree, and the time of survey significantly affected the detectability of beetle populations. Median detectability was 51% for one survey. The SPOM analysis revealed a high but heterogeneous extinction risk among trees, suggesting a metapopulation dynamics between the "classic" and "mainland-island" paradigms. However, it also indicated unexplained beetle colonization of trees in our study, despite the fact that we included limited detectability in our estimation procedure. This may have been due to the cryptic larval stage of T. opacus and may thus invalidate the use of a classic SPOM in our study system.

Using Sex Pheromone and a Multi-Scale Approach to Predict the Distribution of a Rare Saproxylic Beetle.

The European red click beetle, Elater ferrugineus L., is associated with wood mould in old hollow deciduous trees. As a result of severe habitat fragmentation caused by human disturbance, it is threatened throughout its distribution range. A new pheromone-based survey method, which is very efficient in detecting the species, was used in the present study to relate the occurrence of E. ferrugineus to the density of deciduous trees. The latter data were from a recently completed regional survey in SE Sweden recording >120,000 deciduous trees. The occurrence of E. ferrugineus increased with increasing amount of large hollow and large non-hollow trees in the surrounding landscape. Quercus robur (oak) was found to be the most important substrate for E. ferrugineus, whereas two groups of tree species (Carpinus betulus, Fagus sylvatica, Ulmus glabra, vs. Acer platanoides, Aesculus hippocastanum, Fraxinus excelsior, Tilia cordata) were less important but may be a complement to oak in sustaining populations of the beetle. The occurrence of E. ferrugineus was explained by the density of oaks at two different spatial scales, within the circle radii 327 m and 4658 m. In conclusion, priority should be given to oaks in conservation management of E. ferrugineus, and then to the deciduous trees in the genera listed above. Conservation planning at large spatial and temporal scales appears to be essential for long-term persistence of E. ferrugineus. We also show that occurrence models based on strategic sampling might result in pessimistic predictions. This study demonstrates how pheromone-based monitoring make insects excellent tools for sustained feedback to models for landscape conservation management.

Evidence-based knowledge versus negotiated indicators for assessment of ecological sustainability: the Swedish Forest Stewardship Council standard as a case study.

Assessing ecological sustainability involves monitoring of indicators and comparison of their states with performance targets that are deemed sustainable. First, a normative model was developed centered on evidence-based knowledge about (a) forest composition, structure, and function at multiple scales, and (b) performance targets derived by quantifying the habitat amount in naturally dynamic forests, and as required for presence of populations of specialized focal species. Second, we compared the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) certification standards' ecological indicators from 1998 and 2010 in Sweden to the normative model using a Specific, Measurable, Accurate, Realistic, and Timebound (SMART) indicator approach. Indicator variables and targets for riparian and aquatic ecosystems were clearly under-represented compared to terrestrial ones. FSC's ecological indicators expanded over time from composition and structure towards function, and from finer to coarser spatial scales. However, SMART indicators were few. Moreover, they poorly reflected quantitative evidence-based knowledge, a consequence of the fact that forest certification mirrors the outcome of a complex social negotiation process.

Development of secondary woodland in oak wood pastures reduces the richness of rare epiphytic lichens.

Wooded pastures with ancient trees were formerly abundant throughout Europe, but during the last century, grazing has largely been abandoned often resulting in dense forests. Ancient trees constitute habitat for many declining and threatened species, but the effects of secondary woodland on the biodiversity associated with these trees are largely unknown. We tested for difference in species richness, occurrence, and abundance of a set of nationally and regionally red-listed epiphytic lichens between ancient oaks located in secondary woodland and ancient oaks located in open conditions. We refined the test of the effect of secondary woodland by also including other explanatory variables. Species occurrence and abundance were modelled jointly using overdispersed zero-inflated Poisson models. The richness of the red-listed lichens on ancient oaks in secondary woodland was half of that compared with oaks growing in open conditions. The species-level analyses revealed that this was mainly the result of lower occupancy of two of the study species. The tree-level abundance of one species was also lower in secondary woodland. Potential explanations for this pattern are that the study lichens are adapted to desiccating conditions enhancing their population persistence by low competition or that open, windy conditions enhance their colonisation rate. This means that the development of secondary woodland is a threat to red-listed epiphytic lichens. We therefore suggest that woody vegetation is cleared and grazing resumed in abandoned oak pastures. Importantly, this will also benefit the vitality of the oaks.

Multispecies and multiscale conservation planning: setting quantitative targets for red-listed lichens on ancient oaks.

Species occurrence in a habitat patch depends on local habitat and the amount of that habitat in the wider landscape. We used predictions from empirical landscape studies to set quantitative conservation criteria and targets in a multispecies and multiscale conservation planning effort. We used regression analyses to compare species richness and occurrence of five red-listed lichens on 50 ancient oaks (Quercus robur; 120-140 cm in diameter) with the density of ancient oaks in circles of varying radius from each individual oak. Species richness and the occurrence of three of the five species were best explained by increasing density of oaks within 0.5 km; one species was best explained by the density of oaks within 2 km, and another was best predicted by the density of oaks within 5 km. The minimum numbers of ancient oaks required for "successful conservation" was defined as the number of oaks required to obtain a predicted local occurrence of 50% for all species included or a predicted local occurrence of 80% for all species included. These numbers of oaks were calculated for two relevant landscape scales (1 km(2) and 13 km(2)) that corresponded to various species responses, in such a way that calculations also accounted for local number of oaks. Ten and seven of the 50 ancient oaks surveyed were situated in landscapes that already fulfilled criteria for successful conservation when the 50% and 80% criteria, respectively, were used to define the level of successful conservation. For cost-efficient conservation, oak stands in the landscapes most suitable for successful conservation should be prioritized for conservation and management (e.g., grazing and planting of new oaks) at the expense of oak stands situated elsewhere.