Associations of mixed metal exposure with chronic kidney disease from NHANES 2011-2018.

Metals have been proved to be one of risk factors for chronic kidney disease (CKD) and diabetes, but the effect of mixed metal co-exposure and potential interaction between metals are still unclear. We assessed the urine and whole blood levels of cadmium (Cd), manganese (Mn), lead (Pb), mercury (Hg), and renal function in 3080 adults from National Health and Nutrition Survey (NHANES) (2011-2018) to explore the effect of mixed metal exposure on CKD especially in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Weighted quantile sum regression model and Bayesian Kernel Machine Regression model were used to evaluate the overall exposure impact of metal mixture and potential interaction between metals. The results showed that the exposure to mixed metals was significantly associated with an increased risk of CKD in blood glucose stratification, with the risk of CKD being 1.58 (1.26,1.99) times in urine and 1.67 (1.19,2.34) times in whole blood higher in individuals exposed to high concentrations of the metal mixture compared to those exposed to low concentrations. The effect of urine metal mixture was elevated magnitude in stratified analysis. There were interactions between urine Pb and Cd, Pb and Mn, Pb and Hg, Cd and Mn, Cd and Hg, and blood Pb and Hg, Mn and Cd, Mn and Pb, Mn and Hg on the risk of CKD in patients with T2DM and no significant interaction between metals was observed in non-diabetics. In summary, mixed metal exposure increased the risk of CKD in patients with T2DM, and there were complex interactions between metals. More in-depth studies are needed to explore the mechanism and demonstrate the causal relationship.

Temporal Trend of Serum Perfluorooctanoic Acid and Perfluorooctane Sulfonic Acid among U.S. Adults with or without Comorbidities in NHANES 1999-2018.

Perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are associated with adverse health effects. This study examined the trend of perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) levels in individuals with and without pre-existing comorbidities. We analyzed the characteristics of 13,887 participants across nine U.S. NHANES cycles (1999-2000 to 2017-2018) and calculated the geometric mean (GM) of PFOA and PFOS levels, standardized by sex and age. A joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trends of serum PFOA and PFOS levels. We observed declining PFOA and PFOS serum levels among adults in NHANES from 1999-2000 to 2017-2018. Serum PFOA and PFOS concentrations were higher in men, smokers, and individuals with pre-existing CKD, hyperlipidemia, CVD, and cancer. We observed faster decline rates in PFOA levels among individuals with diabetes and CKD and faster decline rates in PFOS levels among individuals with diabetes and those without CKD. This study provided evidence of varying levels and changing trends of PFOA and PFOS between groups with and without established chronic disease, highlighting the role of environmental chemicals in the onset and development of chronic diseases.

Obstructive sleep apnea and mental disorders: a bidirectional mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have reported associations between obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and several mental disorders. However, further research is required to determine whether these associations are causal. Therefore, we evaluated the bidirectional causality between the genetic liability for OSA and nine mental disorders by using Mendelian randomization (MR). METHOD: We performed two-sample bidirectional MR of genetic variants for OSA and nine mental disorders. Summary statistics on OSA and the nine mental disorders were extracted from the FinnGen study and the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium. The primary analytical approach for estimating causal effects was the inverse-variance weighted (IVW), with the weighted median and MR Egger as complementary methods. The MR Egger intercept test, Cochran's Q test, Rucker's Q test, and the MR pleiotropy residual sum and outlier (MR-PRESSO) test were used for sensitivity analyses. RESULT: MR analyses showed that genetic liability for major depressive disorder (MDD) was associated with an increased risk of OSA (odds ratio [OR] per unit increase in the risk of MDD, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.11-1.49; P < 0.001). In addition, genetic liability for OSA may be associated with an increased risk of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) (OR = 1.26; 95% CI, 1.02-1.56; p = 0.032). There was no evidence that OSA is associated with other mental disorders. CONCLUSION: Our study indicated that genetic liability for MDD is associated with an increased risk of OSA without a bidirectional relationship. Additionally, there was suggestive evidence that genetic liability for OSA may have a causal effect on ADHD. These findings have implications for prevention and intervention strategies targeting OSA and ADHD. Further research is needed to investigate the biological mechanisms underlying our findings and the relationship between OSA and other mental disorders.

Study on the trend of congenital heart disease inpatient costs and its influencing factors in economically underdeveloped areas of China, 2015-2020: a case study of Gansu Province.

Background: Economic data on congenital heart disease are scarce in economically underdeveloped areas of China. Therefore, this study aimed to shed light on the level and changing trend of congenital heart disease inpatients' economic burden in underdeveloped areas. Method: This study used a multi-stage stratified cluster sampling method to select 11,055 inpatients with congenital heart disease from 197 medical and health institutions in Gansu Province. Their medical records and expenses were obtained from the Hospital Information System. Univariate analysis was conducted using the rank sum test and Spearman rank correlation. Quantile regression and random forest were used to analyze the influencing factors. Results: From 2015 to 2020, the average length of stay for congenital heart disease patients in Gansu Province was 10.09 days, with an average inpatient cost of USD 3,274.57. During this period, the average inpatient costs per time increased from USD 3,214.85 to USD 3,403.41, while the average daily inpatient costs increased from USD 330.05 to USD 376.56. The average out-of-pocket costs per time decreased from USD 2,305.96 to USD 754.77. The main factors that affected the inpatient costs included length of stay, cardiac procedure, proportion of medications, age, and hospital level. Conclusion: Congenital heart disease causes a significant economic burden on both families and society. Therefore, to further reduce the patient's financial burden, the length of stay should be reasonably reduced, and the rational distribution of medical resources should be continuously promoted to ensure equitable access to healthcare services.

Association and interactions between mixed exposure to trace elements and the prevalence of kidney stones: a study of NHANES 2017-2018.

Background: The association between exposure to trace elements mixture and the prevalence of kidney stones and the interactions between elements are unclear. The aim of this study was to explore the association between exposure to trace elements mixture and the prevalence of kidney stones and the interactions between the elements. Methods: A total of 1,244 participants (139 kidney stone formers and 1,105 non-stone former participants) in NHANES 2017-2018 were included. The exposure to trace elements was evaluated by measuring their concentration in urine samples. Three methods, Logistic regression, quantile-based g computation (qgcomp), and Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR), were used for analysis. Results: According to the results from qgcomp and BKMR, a negative association was found between exposure to the 13 trace elements and the prevalence of kidney stones [OR = 0.50 (0.32, 0.78)]. Subgroup analysis revealed that Co, As, and iodine in the whole population, Co, As, and Ni in males, and Cs, iodine, and Sb in females, were most strongly associated with kidney stones. Kidney stone was found to be positively correlated with Co and negatively correlated with the other elements. Besides, there were significant interactions between Ni and Pb in the whole population, Co and iodine in males, and Pb and iodine in females. Conclusion: There was a negative association between exposure to the mixture of 13 trace elements and the prevalence of kidney stones.

A Qualitative Exploration of Older Patients' Experiences With Frailty and Related Management Strategies.

BACKGROUND: Frailty is highly prevalent in hospitalized older patients and may increase the risk of adverse health outcomes. Understanding the experiences of older patients and the management strategies they use to recover from frailty is crucial to developing appropriate interventions. PURPOSE: This study was designed to explore the frailty experiences of older adults and the management strategies they use to recover from frailty. METHODS: Using purposive sampling, semistructured, face-to-face interviews were conducted with 16 older patients with frailty. Data were analyzed using content analysis. RESULTS: The experiences of participants were classified into three phases, including the (a) individual sensing phase, (b) daily-living-threatening phase, and (c) acclimatization and acceptance phase. When experiencing frailty, the participants developed management strategies to facilitate recovery, which manifested in three phases: (a) making flexible adjustments to the daily routine, (b) using adequate support systems, and (c) adopting positive thinking. CONCLUSIONS/IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: The results indicate that familial support and positive thinking are important management strategies for successful recovery in frail individuals. Older patients require adequate support systems. Positive thinking was also found to be an effective management strategy for recovery. Healthcare professionals should not only focus on providing supportive resources but also provide support to older patients to facilitate their adoption of positive thinking to face life changes brought on by frailty.

Associations of urinary and blood cadmium concentrations with all-cause mortality in US adults with chronic kidney disease: a prospective cohort study.

Epidemiological evidence for the relationship between cadmium exposure and mortality in specific chronic kidney disease (CKD) populations remains scarce. We aimed to explore the relationships between cadmium concentrations in urine and blood and all-cause mortality among CKD patients in the USA. This cohort study was composed of 1825 CKD participants from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (1999-2014) who were followed up to December 31, 2015. All-cause mortality was ascertained by matching the National Death Index (NDI) records. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for all-cause mortality in relation to urinary and blood cadmium concentrations by Cox regression models. During an average follow-up period of 82 months, 576 CKD participants died. Compared with the lowest quartiles, HRs (95% CIs) for all-cause mortality associated with the fourth weighted quartiles of urinary and blood cadmium concentrations were 1.75 (1.28 to 2.39) and 1.59 (1.17 to 2.15), respectively. Furthermore, the HRs (95% CIs) for all-cause mortality per ln-transformed IQR increment in cadmium concentrations in urine (1.15 µg/g UCr) and blood (0.95 µg/L) were 1.40 (1.21 to 1.63) and 1.22 (1.07 to 1.40), respectively. Linear concentration-response relationships between urinary and blood cadmium concentrations and all-cause mortality were also found. Our findings suggested that increased cadmium concentrations in both urine and blood significantly contributed to enhanced mortality risk in CKD patients, thus highlighting that efforts to reduce cadmium exposure may reduce mortality risk in high-risk populations with CKD.

Prospective assessment of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma diagnosis from endoscopic ultrasonography images with the assistance of deep learning.

BACKGROUND: Endosonographers are highly dependent on the diagnosis of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). The objectives of this study were to develop a deep-learning radiomics (DLR) model based on endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) images for identifying PDAC and to explore its true clinical benefit. METHODS: A retrospective data set of EUS images that included PDAC and benign lesions was used as a training cohort (N = 368 patients) to develop the DLR model, and a prospective data set was used as a test cohort (N = 123 patients) to validate the effectiveness of the DLR model. In addition, seven endosonographers performed two rounds of reader studies on the test cohort with or without DLR assistance to further assess the clinical applicability and true benefits of the DLR model. RESULTS: In the prospective test cohort, DLR exhibited an area under the receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.936 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.889-0.976) with a sensitivity of 0.831 (95% CI, 0.746-0.913) and 0.904 (95% CI, 0.820-0.980), respectively. With DLR assistance, the overall diagnostic performance of the seven endosonographers improved: one endosonographer achieved a significant expansion of specificity (p = .035,) and another achieved a significant increase in sensitivity (p = .038). In the junior endosonographer group, the diagnostic performance with the help of the DLR was higher than or comparable to that of the senior endosonographer group without DLR assistance. CONCLUSIONS: A prospective test cohort validated that the DLR model based on EUS images effectively identified PDAC. With the assistance of this model, the gap between endosonographers at different levels of experience narrowed, and the accuracy of endosonographers expanded.

Nanosecond pulsed electric field ablation-induced modulation of sphingolipid metabolism is associated with Ly6c2+ mononuclear phagocyte differentiation in liver cancer.

Preclinical studies have proven that nanosecond pulsed electric field (nsPEF) ablation can be a safe and effective treatment for humans with unresectable liver cancer that are ineligible for thermal ablation. The concomitant activation of antitumor immunity by nsPEF can also potentially prevent tumor recurrence. However, whether nsPEF exhibits similar efficacy in a clinical setting remains to be investigated. A prospective clinical trial (clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT04039747) was conducted to evaluate the safety and efficacy of ultrasound (US)-guided nsPEF ablation in 15 patients with unresectable liver cancer that were ineligible for thermal ablation. We found that nsPEF ablation was safe and produced a 12-month recurrence-free survival (RFS) and local RFS of 60% (9/15) and 86.7% (13/15), respectively, in the enrolled patients. Integrative proteomic and metabolomic analysis showed that sphingolipid metabolism was the most significantly enriched pathway in patient sera after nsPEF without recurrence within 8 months. A similar upregulation of sphingolipid metabolism was observed in the intratumoral mononuclear phagocytes (MNPs), rather than other immune and nonimmune cells, of an nsPEF-treated mouse model. We then demonstrated that lymphocyte antigen 6 complex, locus C2-positive (Ly6c2+ ) monocytes first differentiated into Ly6c2+ monocyte-derived macrophages with an increase in sphingolipid metabolic activity, and subsequently into Ly6c2+ dendritic cells (DCs). Ly6c2+ DCs communicated with CD8+ T cells and increased the proportions of IFN-γ+ CD8+ memory T cells after nsPEF, and this finding was subsequently confirmed by depletion of liver Ly6c2+ MNPs. In conclusion, nsPEF was a safe and effective treatment for liver cancer. The alteration of sphingolipid metabolism induced by nsPEF was associated with the differentiation of Ly6c2+ MNPs, and subsequently induced the formation of memory CD8+ T cells with potent antitumor effect.

Optimization of Vaccination Clinics to Improve Staffing Decisions for COVID-19: A Time-Motion Study.

As the COVID-19 pandemic disturbed people's daily life for more than 2 years, many COVID-19 vaccines have been carried forward systematically to curb the transmission of the virus. However, high vaccination tasks bring great challenges to personnel allocation. We observed nine vaccination clinics in Huzhou and Shanghai and built a discrete-event simulation model to simulate the optimal staffing of vaccination clinics under 10 different scenarios. Based on the result of the simulations, we optimized the allocation of vaccination staff in different stages of epidemic development by province in China. The results showed that optimizing staffing could both boost service utilization and shorten the queuing time for vaccination recipients. Taking Jilin Province as an example, to increase the booster vaccination rate within 3 months, the number of vaccination staff members needed was 2028, with a continuous small-scale breakout and 2,416 under a stable epidemic situation. When there was a shortage of vaccination staff, the total number of vaccination clinic staff members needed could be significantly reduced by combining the preview and registration steps. This study provides theoretical support for the personnel arrangement of COVID-19 vaccinations of a booster dose by province and the assessment of current vaccination staff reserves.

Impact of the national hepatitis B immunization program in China: a modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Elimination of hepatitis B virus (HBV) is a striking challenge for countries with high or moderate disease burden. Therefore, using China as a practical case to share experiences for similar countries may accelerate the achievement of the WHO 2030 target of 90% reduction in HBV-related incidence. We aim to evaluate the impact of national HBV immunization strategies in China; and the feasibility to achieve WHO 2030 targets under different scenarios. METHODS: We constructed an expanded Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model and decision tree-Markov model to estimate the epidemic of HBV in China, assess the feasibility of 2030 Elimination Goals through the projections and conduct the economic analysis. Least square method was used to calibrate the expanded SEIR model by yearly data of laboratory-confirmed HBV cases from 1990 to 2018. Two models were separately used to evaluate the impact and cost-effectiveness of HBV vaccine by comparing prevalence of chronic HBV infections, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), incremental cost effectiveness ratio and benefit-cost ratio (BCR) under various intervention options, providing a basis for exploring new containment strategies. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2020, the number of chronic HBV infections decreased by 33.9%. The current status quo would lead to 55.73 million infections (3.95% prevalence) in 2030, compared to 90.63 million (6.42% prevalence) of the "Without the NIP" scenario (NIP: National Immunization Program), 114.78 million (8.13% prevalence) without any interventions. The prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT) strategy showed a net benefit as 12,283.50 dollars per person, with BCR as 12.66, which is higher than that of universal vaccination at 9.49. Compared with no screening and no vaccination, the PMTCT strategy could save 7726.03 dollars for each QALY increase. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings proved the HBV vaccination has demonstrated a substantial positive impact on controlling the epidemic of HBV in terms of effectiveness and economy after about 30 years of implementation of the national hepatitis B immunization program which also provided containment experience for high or medium burden countries. As for China, the next step should focus on exploring strategies to improve diagnosis and treatment coverage to reduce the burden of HBV-related deaths and ultimately eliminate HBV.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Utilization of Inpatient Mental Health Services in Shanghai, China.

(1) Purpose: The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has had an impact on mental health and the utilization of hospital-based inpatient mental health care worldwide. The aim of this study was to determine the impact of this pandemic on the utilization of this service in Shanghai by comparison with hospital-based health care records during the preceding 4 years. (2) Methods: The medical records were provided by the Shanghai Municipal Health Insurance Bureau. Diagnostic coding was based on International Classification of Diseases-10th revision (ICD-10), and inpatients with codes from F00 to F99 were examined. (3) Results: Inpatients were compared according to gender, age, pandemic stage, and type of mental disease. Utilization of psychiatric inpatient care in Shanghai during each of the four stages of the pandemic (1 January 2016 to 21 January 2020; 22 January 2020 to 9 February 2020; 10 February 2020 to 1 March 2020; 2 March 2020 to 31 July 2020) was analyzed. Before the lockdown, the utilization of psychiatric inpatient care had an overall upward trend; after the lockdown, the number of inpatients dropped sharply; as of 31 July 2020, it has not been restored. The utilization of this service for most types of mental disease declined rapidly during the pandemic; for vascular dementia (VAD, F01), it was relatively steady. The observed number of inpatient patients was about 51.07% lower than the predicted number in 2020. (4) Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic led to the implementation of prevention and control measures that reduced the utilization of psychiatric inpatient care in Shanghai. The use of inpatient services for categories F20-F29 had the greatest decline, and VAD (F01) had the smallest change during the pandemic. This service consequence of COVID-19 is apparent; to assure access to adequate service during a pandemic, health care professionals should pay close attention to changes in the utilization of different mental health services.

ARIMA and ARIMA-ERNN models for prediction of pertussis incidence in mainland China from 2004 to 2021.

OBJECTIVE: To compare an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with a model that combines ARIMA with the Elman recurrent neural network (ARIMA-ERNN) in predicting the incidence of pertussis in mainland China. BACKGROUND: The incidence of pertussis has increased rapidly in mainland China since 2016, making the disease an increasing public health threat. There is a pressing need for models capable of accurately predicting the incidence of pertussis in order to guide prevention and control measures. We developed and compared two models for predicting pertussis incidence in mainland China. METHODS: Data on the incidence of pertussis in mainland China from 2004 to 2019 were obtained from the official website of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. An ARIMA model was established using SAS (ver. 9.4) software and an ARIMA-ERNN model was established using MATLAB (ver. R2019a) software. The performances of these models were compared. RESULTS: From 2004 to 2019, there were 104,837 reported cases of pertussis in mainland China, with an increasing incidence over time. The incidence of pertussis showed obvious seasonal characteristics, with the peak lasting from March to September every year. Compared with the mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the ARIMA model, those of the ARIMA-ERNN model were 81.43%, 95.97% and 80.86% lower, respectively, in fitting performance. In terms of prediction performance, the MAE, MSE and MAPE were 37.75%, 56.88% and 43.75% lower, respectively. CONCLUSION: The fitting and prediction performances of the ARIMA-ERNN model were better than those of the ARIMA model. This provides theoretical support for the prediction of infectious diseases and should be beneficial to public health decision making.

Patterns of human social contact and mask wearing in high-risk groups in China.

BACKGROUND: The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has changed human behavior in areas such as contact patterns and mask-wearing frequency. Exploring human-human contact patterns and mask-wearing habits in high-risk groups is an essential step in fully understanding the transmission of respiratory infection-based diseases. This study had aims to quantify local human-human (H-H) contacts in high-risk groups in representative provinces of China and to explore the occupation-specific assortativity and heterogeneity of social contacts. METHODS: Delivery workers, medical workers, preschoolers, and students from Qinghai, Shanghai, and Zhejiang were recruited to complete an online questionnaire that queried general information, logged contacts, and assessed the willingness to wear a mask in different settings. The "group contact" was defined as contact with a group at least 20 individuals. The numbers of contacts across different characteristics were assessed and age-specific contact matrices were established. A generalized additive mixed model was used to analyze the associations between the number of individual contacts and several characteristics. The factors influencing the frequency of mask wearing were evaluated with a logistic regression model. RESULTS: A total of 611,287 contacts were reported by 15,635 participants. The frequency of daily individual contacts averaged 3.14 (95% confidence interval: 3.13-3.15) people per day, while that of group contacts was 37.90 (95% CI: 37.20-38.70). Skin-to-skin contact and long-duration contact were more likely to occur at home or among family members. Contact matrices of students were the most assortative (all contacts q-index = 0.899, 95% CI: 0.894-0.904). Participants with larger household sizes reported having more contacts. Higher household income per capita was significantly associated with a greater number of contacts among preschoolers (P50,000-99,999 = 0.033) and students (P10,000-29,999 = 0.017). In each of the public places, the frequency of mask wearing was highest for delivery workers. For preschoolers and students with more contacts, the proportion of those who reported always wearing masks was lower (P < 0.05) in schools/workplaces and public transportation than preschoolers and students with fewer contacts. CONCLUSIONS: Contact screening efforts should be concentrated in the home, school, and workplace after an outbreak of an epidemic, as more than 75% of all contacts, on average, will be found in such places. Efforts should be made to improve the mask-wearing rate and age-specific health promotion measures aimed at reducing transmission for the younger demographic. Age-stratified and occupation-specific social contact research in high-risk groups could help inform policy-making decisions during the post-relaxation period of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Vaccination as an alternative to non-drug interventions to prevent local resurgence of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: While a COVID-19 vaccine protects people from serious illness and death, it remains a concern when and how to lift the high-cost and strict non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). This study examined the joint effect of vaccine coverage and NPIs on the control of local and sporadic resurgence of COVID-19 cases. METHODS: Between July 2021 and January 2022, we collected the large-scale testing information and case number of imported COVID-19 patients from the website of the National Health Commission of China. A compartment model was developed to identify the level of vaccine coverage that would allow safe relaxation of NPIs, and vaccination strategies that can best achieve this level of coverage. We applied Monte Carlo simulation 50 000 times to remove random fluctuation effects and obtain fitted/predicted epidemic curve based on various parameters with 95% confidence interval at each time point. RESULTS: We found that a vaccination coverage of 50.4% was needed for the safe relaxation of NPIs, if the vaccine effectiveness was 79.3%. The total number of incidence cases under the key groups firstly strategy was 103 times higher than that of accelerated vaccination strategy. It needed 35 months to fully relax NPIs if the key groups firstly strategy was implemented, and 27 months were needed with the accelerated vaccination strategy. If combined the two strategies, only 8 months are needed to achieve the vaccine coverage threshold for the fully relaxation of NPIs. Sensitivity analyses results shown that the higher the transmission rate of the virus and the lower annual vaccine supply, the more difficult the epidemic could be under control. When the transmission rate increased 25% or the vaccination effectiveness rate decreased 20%, 33 months were needed to reduce the number of total incidence cases below 1000. CONCLUSIONS: As vaccine coverage improves, the NPIs can be gradually relaxed. Until that threshold is reached, however, strict NPIs are still needed to control the epidemic. The more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variant led to higher resurgence probability, which indicates the importance of accelerated vaccination and achieving the vaccine coverage earlier.

Factors That Impact Acceptance of COVID-19 Vaccination in Different Community-Dwelling Populations in China.

(1) Background: It is important to improve vaccination strategies and immunization programs to achieve herd immunity to infectious diseases. (2) Methods: To assess the acceptance of COVID-19 vaccination, we conducted face-to-face surveys and online surveys in Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Qinghai provinces. A fixed-effect model and a random effects model were used to analyze factors associated with the acceptance of COVID-19 vaccination. (3) Findings: We initially recruited 3173 participants, 3172 participants completed the full questionnaire (the response rate was nearly 100%), of which 2169 were valid questionnaires, with an effective rate of 87.3%. The results indicated that 82.6% of participants were willing to receive vaccination when it was available in the community, and 57.2% of deliverymen, 43.3% of medical workers, 78.2% of parents of primary and secondary school children, and 72.2% of parents of preschool children were willing to receive vaccination. The models showed that participants who were male (female vs. male: OR = 1.49, 95% CI (1.12, 1.98)), 60 to 69 years-old (60-69 vs. <30: OR = 0.52, 95% CI (0.29, 0.92)), had less education (medium vs. low: OR = 1.50, 95% CI (1.05, 2.23)), had good health status (good vs. low: OR = 0.36, 95% CI (0.15, 0.88)), and had positive attitudes and trust (OR = 0.14, 95% CI (0.10, 0.20)) in vaccines approved by the National Health Commission were more likely to accept vaccination. Participants also had an increased vaccination acceptance if it was recommended by government sources, doctors, relatives, or friends. Most participants learned about COVID-19 vaccination from television, radio, and newspapers, followed by community or hospital campaigns and the internet. (4) Conclusions: Government sources and doctors could increase the acceptance of vaccination by promoting the efficacy and safety of COVID-19 vaccination by the use of mass media and emphasizing the necessity of vaccination for everyone.

Temporal variations of short-term associations between PM10 and NO2 concentrations and emergency department visits in Shanghai, China 2008-2019.

Levels and constituents of ambient air pollution have substantially changed in China over the last decade. Such changes may lead to the variations in health effects of air pollution. Very limited studies, however, have investigated the temporal variations in health effects of air pollution on a long-term scale, especially in China. We evaluated the temporal variations in short-term associations between PM10 and NO2 concentrations and emergency department (ED) visits during a 12-year period from 2008 to 2019 in Shanghai, China. A quasi-Poisson generalized linear regression was performed to assess the associations between PM10 and NO2 concentrations and ED visits during entire study period and three specific periods. We evaluated the temporal variations of period-specific associations with an interaction variable between pollutant concentrations and period indicators. We further investigated the concentration-response relationships for specific periods. The effects on specific subpopulations (males and females; 18-65 years old and >65 years old) were also examined. A 10 µg/m3 increase of PM10 and NO2 corresponded to 0.48% (95% CI: 0.36%, 0.59%) and 1.51% (95% CI: 1.25%, 1.78%) increase in ED visits at lag0-7 day for entire study period, respectively. The short-term associations between ED visits and NO2 remained unchanged over time (P-value > 0.05), while the effects from PM10 were significantly inconsistent (P-value < 0.05), with the highest effect observed during the intermediate period of 2012-2015 and the lowest effect observed during the initial period of 2008-2011. Similar temporal trends were found in subgroups, except for elderly group. Despite substantial reduction in ambient PM10 and NO2 concentrations, the short-term effects on ED visits for NO2 remained stable and even increased for PM10. More efforts were needed to reduce harmful components in air pollution mixture to reduce the health hazards of air pollution.

Effects of prolonged incubation period and centralized quarantine on the COVID-19 outbreak in Shijiazhuang, China: a modeling study.

BACKGROUND: From 2 January to 14 February 2021, a local outbreak of COVID-19 occurred in Shijiazhuang, the capital city of Hebei Province, with a population of 10 million. We analyzed the characteristics of the local outbreak of COVID-19 in Shijiazhuang and evaluated the effects of serial interventions. METHODS: Publicly available data, which included age, sex, date of diagnosis, and other patient information, were used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak in Shijiazhuang. The maximum likelihood method and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method were used to estimate the serial interval and incubation period, respectively. The impact of incubation period and different interventions were simulated using a well-fitted SEIR+q model. RESULTS: From 2 January to 14 February 2021, there were 869 patients with symptomatic COVID-19 in Shijiazhuang, and most cases (89.6%) were confirmed before 20 January. Overall, 40.2% of the cases were male, 16.3% were aged 0 to 19 years, and 21.9% were initially diagnosed as asymptomatic but then became symptomatic. The estimated incubation period was 11.6 days (95% CI 10.6, 12.7 days) and the estimated serial interval was 6.6 days (0.025th, 0.975th: 0.6, 20.0 days). The results of the SEIR+q model indicated that a longer incubation period led to a longer epidemic period. If the comprehensive quarantine measures were reduced by 10%, then the nucleic acid testing would need to increase by 20% or more to minimize the cumulative number of cases. CONCLUSIONS: Incubation period was longer than serial interval suggested that more secondary transmission may occur before symptoms onset. The long incubation period made it necessary to extend the isolation period to control the outbreak. Timely contact tracing and implementation of a centralized quarantine quickly contained this epidemic in Shijiazhuang. Large-scale nucleic acid testing also helped to identify cases and reduce virus transmission.

Impact of immunization programs on 11 childhood vaccine-preventable diseases in China: 1950-2018.

To evaluate the achievements of China's immunization program between 1950 and 2018, we chose 11 vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) as representative notifiable diseases and used annual surveillance data obtained between 1950 and 2018 to derive disease incidence and mortality trends. Quasi-Poisson and polynomial regression models were used to estimate the impacts of specific vaccine programs, and life-table methods were used to calculate the loss of life expectancy, years of life lost, and loss of working years. The total notification number for the 11 VPDs was 211,866,000 from 1950 to 2018. The greatest number occurred in 1959, with a total incidence of 1,723 per million persons. From 1978 to 2018, a substantial decline was observed in the incidence of major infectious diseases. The incidence of pertussis fell 98% from 126.35 to 1.58 per million, and the incidences of measles, meningococcal meningitis, and Japanese encephalitis fell 99%, 99%, and 98%, respectively. The regression models showed that most of the 11 diseases exhibited dramatic declines in morbidity after their integration into the Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI), while varicella and paratyphoid fever, which were not integrated into the EPI, showed increased morbidity. From 1978 to 2018, the total life expectancy for the 11 VPDs increased by 0.79 years, and similar results were obtained for different age groups. China has had great success in controlling VPDs in recent decades, and improving vaccination coverage is a key aspect of controlling VPDs in China.

Application of a novel hybrid algorithm of Bayesian network in the study of hyperlipidemia related factors: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: This article aims to understand the prevalence of hyperlipidemia and its related factors in Shanxi Province. On the basis of multivariate Logistic regression analysis to find out the influencing factors closely related to hyperlipidemia, the complex network connection between various variables was presented through Bayesian networks(BNs). METHODS: Logistic regression was used to screen for hyperlipidemia-related variables, and then the complex network connection between various variables was presented through BNs. Since some drawbacks stand out in the Max-Min Hill-Climbing (MMHC) hybrid algorithm, extra hybrid algorithms are proposed to construct the BN structure: MMPC-Tabu, Fast.iamb-Tabu and Inter.iamb-Tabu. To assess their performance, we made a comparison between these three hybrid algorithms with the widely used MMHC hybrid algorithm on randomly generated datasets. Afterwards, the optimized BN was determined to explore to study related factors for hyperlipidemia. We also make a comparison between the BN model with logistic regression model. RESULTS: The BN constructed by Inter.iamb-Tabu hybrid algorithm had the best fitting degree to the benchmark networks, and was used to construct the BN model of hyperlipidemia. Multivariate logistic regression analysis suggested that gender, smoking, central obesity, daily average salt intake, daily average oil intake, diabetes mellitus, hypertension and physical activity were associated with hyperlipidemia. BNs model of hyperlipidemia further showed that gender, BMI, and physical activity were directly related to the occurrence of hyperlipidemia, hyperlipidemia was directly related to the occurrence of diabetes mellitus and hypertension; the average daily salt intake, daily average oil consumption, smoking, and central obesity were indirectly related to hyperlipidemia. CONCLUSIONS: The BN of hyperlipidemia constructed by the Inter.iamb-Tabu hybrid algorithm is more reasonable, and allows for the overall linking effect between factors and diseases, revealing the direct and indirect factors associated with hyperlipidemia and correlation between related variables, which can provide a new approach to the study of chronic diseases and their associated factors.