Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality: A multi-country time-series study.

BACKGROUND: Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has different effects. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. METHODS: We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758 locations in 47 countries or regions from 1972 to 2020. We defined inter-day TV as the standard deviation (SD) of daily mean temperatures across the lag interval, and intra-day TV as the average SD of minimum and maximum temperatures on each day. In the first stage, inter-day and intra-day TVs were modelled simultaneously in the quasi-Poisson time-series model for each location. In the second stage, a multi-level analysis was used to pool the location-specific estimates. RESULTS: Overall, the mortality risk due to each interquartile range [IQR] increase was higher for intra-day TV than for inter-day TV. The risk increased by 0.59% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53, 0.65) for all-cause mortality, 0.64% (95% CI: 0.56, 0.73) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.65% (95% CI: 0.49, 0.80) for respiratory mortality per IQR increase in intra-day TV0-7 (0.9 °C). An IQR increase in inter-day TV0-7 (1.6 °C) was associated with 0.22% (95% CI: 0.18, 0.26) increase in all-cause mortality, 0.44% (95% CI: 0.37, 0.50) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and 0.31% (95% CI: 0.21, 0.41) increase in respiratory mortality. The proportion of all-cause deaths attributable to intra-day TV0-7 and inter-day TV0-7 was 1.45% and 0.35%, respectively. The mortality risks varied by lag interval, climate area, season, and climate type. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicated that intra-day TV may explain the main part of the mortality risk related to TV and suggested that comprehensive evaluations should be proposed in more countries to help protect human health.

Ozone-related acute excess mortality projected to increase in the absence of climate and air quality controls consistent with the Paris Agreement.

Short-term exposure to ground-level ozone in cities is associated with increased mortality and is expected to worsen with climate and emission changes. However, no study has yet comprehensively assessed future ozone-related acute mortality across diverse geographic areas, various climate scenarios, and using CMIP6 multi-model ensembles, limiting our knowledge on future changes in global ozone-related acute mortality and our ability to design targeted health policies. Here, we combine CMIP6 simulations and epidemiological data from 406 cities in 20 countries or regions. We find that ozone-related deaths in 406 cities will increase by 45 to 6,200 deaths/year between 2010 and 2014 and between 2050 and 2054, with attributable fractions increasing in all climate scenarios (from 0.17% to 0.22% total deaths), except the single scenario consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement (declines from 0.17% to 0.15% total deaths). These findings stress the need for more stringent air quality regulations, as current standards in many countries are inadequate.

Tropical cyclone-specific mortality risks and the periods of concern: A multicountry time-series study.

BACKGROUND: More intense tropical cyclones (TCs) are expected in the future under a warming climate scenario, but little is known about their mortality effect pattern across countries and over decades. We aim to evaluate the TC-specific mortality risks, periods of concern (POC) and characterize the spatiotemporal pattern and exposure-response (ER) relationships on a multicountry scale. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality among the general population were collected from 494 locations in 18 countries or territories during 1980 to 2019. Daily TC exposures were defined when the maximum sustained windspeed associated with a TC was ≥34 knots using a parametric wind field model at a 0.5° × 0.5° resolution. We first estimated the TC-specific mortality risks and POC using an advanced flexible statistical framework of mixed Poisson model, accounting for the population changes, natural variation, seasonal and day of the week effects. Then, a mixed meta-regression model was used to pool the TC-specific mortality risks to estimate the overall and country-specific ER relationships of TC characteristics (windspeed, rainfall, and year) with mortality. Overall, 47.7 million all-cause, 15.5 million cardiovascular, and 4.9 million respiratory deaths and 382 TCs were included in our analyses. An overall average POC of around 20 days was observed for TC-related all-cause and cardiopulmonary mortality, with relatively longer POC for the United States of America, Brazil, and Taiwan (>30 days). The TC-specific relative risks (RR) varied substantially, ranging from 1.04 to 1.42, 1.07 to 1.77, and 1.12 to 1.92 among the top 100 TCs with highest RRs for all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. At country level, relatively higher TC-related mortality risks were observed in Guatemala, Brazil, and New Zealand for all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. We found an overall monotonically increasing and approximately linear ER curve of TC-related maximum sustained windspeed and cumulative rainfall with mortality, with heterogeneous patterns across countries and regions. The TC-related mortality risks were generally decreasing from 1980 to 2019, especially for the Philippines, Taiwan, and the USA, whereas potentially increasing trends in TC-related all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risks were observed for Japan. CONCLUSIONS: The TC mortality risks and POC varied greatly across TC events, locations, and countries. To minimize the TC-related health burdens, targeted strategies are particularly needed for different countries and regions, integrating epidemiological evidence on region-specific POC and ER curves that consider across-TC variability.

Fluctuating risk of acute kidney injury-related mortality for four weeks after exposure to air pollution: A multi-country time-series study in 6 countries.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have reported that air pollution is related to kidney diseases. However, the global evidence on the risk of death from acute kidney injury (AKI) owing to air pollution is limited. Therefore, we investigated the association between short-term exposure to air pollution-particulate matter ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5), ozone (O3), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2)-and AKI-related mortality using a multi-country dataset. METHODS: This study included 41,379 AKI-related deaths in 136 locations in six countries during 1987-2018. A novel case time-series design was applied to each air pollutant during 0-28 lag days to estimate the association between air pollution and AKI-related deaths. Moreover, we calculated AKI deaths attributable to non-compliance with the World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines. RESULTS: The relative risks (95% confidence interval) of AKI-related deaths are 1.052 (1.003, 1.103), 1.022 (0.994, 1.050), and 1.022 (0.982, 1.063) for 5, 10, and 10 µg/m3 increase in lag 0-28 days of PM2.5, warm-season O3, and NO2, respectively. The lag-distributed association showed that the risk appeared immediately on the day of exposure to air pollution, gradually decreased, and then increased again reaching the peak approximately 20 days after exposure to PM2.5 and O3. We also found that 1.9%, 6.3%, and 5.2% of AKI deaths were attributed to PM2.5, warm-season O3, and NO2 concentrations above the WHO guidelines. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence that public health policies to reduce air pollution may alleviate the burden of death from AKI and suggests the need to investigate the several pathways between air pollution and AKI death.

Urinary heavy metals and attention-deficit/hyperactivity symptoms of preschool children: a mixed-exposure analysis.

The neurotoxic effects of certain heavy metals are well established, but only a few studies have investigated the joint effect of concurrent exposure to multiple ones. The study aims to evaluate the association between mixed exposure to neurotoxic metals and the psychosocial behavior of preschool children. Using a stratified sampling strategy, we recruited participants from 105 kindergartens in 41 townships of Taiwan and excluded those with blood lead levels ≥ 3.5 µg/L. The first-morning void urines were collected and analyzed for cadmium, manganese, arsenic, chromium, lead, and nickel concentrations using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. We applied the parentally reported Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) and Swanson, Nolan, and Pelham IV (SNAP-IV) scales to evaluate the psychosocial behaviors. Multiple linear regressions were utilized to evaluate the associations between each heavy metal and the outcomes, while the mixed effect of concurrent exposure was estimated by using a Quantile g-computation approach. A total of 977 preschool children were included in the study, and the mean (SD) age was 5.7 (0.7) years old. In single pollutant models, we observed adverse effects of urinary manganese, nickel, arsenic, and lead on the specific subsets of SDQ. Furthermore, the combined effect of six heavy metals significantly affected the hyperactivity/inattention symptoms (beta = 0.46, 95% CI: 0.13-0.78, with all metals increased by one quartile), and chromium and lead were the two major contributors. Similar detrimental effects of urinary cadmium and lead were also observed in the SNAP-IV subsets, although the joint effect analysis was not significant. The study provided evidence that concurrent exposure to multiple heavy metals may exert increased risks of hyperactivity/inattention in children compared to single pollutant exposure. Further studies are needed to verify our findings regarding mixed exposure to multiple neurotoxic metals.

Interactive effects of ambient fine particulate matter and ozone on daily mortality in 372 cities: two stage time series analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate potential interactive effects of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) on daily mortality at global level. DESIGN: Two stage time series analysis. SETTING: 372 cities across 19 countries and regions. POPULATION: Daily counts of deaths from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and respiratory disease. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Daily mortality data during 1994-2020. Stratified analyses by co-pollutant exposures and synergy index (>1 denotes the combined effect of pollutants is greater than individual effects) were applied to explore the interaction between PM2.5 and O3 in association with mortality. RESULTS: During the study period across the 372 cities, 19.3 million deaths were attributable to all causes, 5.3 million to cardiovascular disease, and 1.9 million to respiratory disease. The risk of total mortality for a 10 µg/m3 increment in PM2.5 (lag 0-1 days) ranged from 0.47% (95% confidence interval 0.26% to 0.67%) to 1.25% (1.02% to 1.48%) from the lowest to highest fourths of O3 concentration; and for a 10 µg/m3 increase in O3 ranged from 0.04% (-0.09% to 0.16%) to 0.29% (0.18% to 0.39%) from the lowest to highest fourths of PM2.5 concentration, with significant differences between strata (P for interaction <0.001). A significant synergistic interaction was also identified between PM2.5 and O3 for total mortality, with a synergy index of 1.93 (95% confidence interval 1.47 to 3.34). Subgroup analyses showed that interactions between PM2.5 and O3 on all three mortality endpoints were more prominent in high latitude regions and during cold seasons. CONCLUSION: The findings of this study suggest a synergistic effect of PM2.5 and O3 on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, indicating the benefit of coordinated control strategies for both pollutants.

Joint effect of heat and air pollution on mortality in 620 cities of 36 countries.

BACKGROUND: The epidemiological evidence on the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on mortality is still inconsistent. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on daily mortality in a large dataset of 620 cities from 36 countries. METHODS: We used daily data on all-cause mortality, air temperature, particulate matter ≤ 10 µm (PM10), PM ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) from 620 cities in 36 countries in the period 1995-2020. We restricted the analysis to the six consecutive warmest months in each city. City-specific data were analysed with over-dispersed Poisson regression models, followed by a multilevel random-effects meta-analysis. The joint association between air temperature and air pollutants was modelled with product terms between non-linear functions for air temperature and linear functions for air pollutants. RESULTS: We analyzed 22,630,598 deaths. An increase in mean temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile of city-specific distributions was associated with an average 8.9 % (95 % confidence interval: 7.1 %, 10.7 %) mortality increment, ranging between 5.3 % (3.8 %, 6.9 %) and 12.8 % (8.7 %, 17.0 %), when daily PM10 was equal to 10 or 90 µg/m3, respectively. Corresponding estimates when daily O3 concentrations were 40 or 160 µg/m3 were 2.9 % (1.1 %, 4.7 %) and 12.5 % (6.9 %, 18.5 %), respectively. Similarly, a 10 µg/m3 increment in PM10 was associated with a 0.54 % (0.10 %, 0.98 %) and 1.21 % (0.69 %, 1.72 %) increase in mortality when daily air temperature was set to the 1st and 99th city-specific percentiles, respectively. Corresponding mortality estimate for O3 across these temperature percentiles were 0.00 % (-0.44 %, 0.44 %) and 0.53 % (0.38 %, 0.68 %). Similar effect modification results, although slightly weaker, were found for PM2.5 and NO2. CONCLUSIONS: Suggestive evidence of effect modification between air temperature and air pollutants on mortality during the warm period was found in a global dataset of 620 cities.

Global short-term mortality risk and burden associated with tropical cyclones from 1980 to 2019: a multi-country time-series study.

BACKGROUND: The global spatiotemporal pattern of mortality risk and burden attributable to tropical cyclones is unclear. We aimed to evaluate the global short-term mortality risk and burden associated with tropical cyclones from 1980 to 2019. METHODS: The wind speed associated with cyclones from 1980 to 2019 was estimated globally through a parametric wind field model at a grid resolution of 0·5°â€ˆ× 0·5°. A total of 341 locations with daily mortality and temperature data from 14 countries that experienced at least one tropical cyclone day (a day with maximum sustained wind speed associated with cyclones ≥17·5 m/s) during the study period were included. A conditional quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear model was applied to assess the tropical cyclone-mortality association. A meta-regression model was fitted to evaluate potential contributing factors and estimate grid cell-specific tropical cyclone effects. FINDINGS: Tropical cyclone exposure was associated with an overall 6% (95% CI 4-8) increase in mortality in the first 2 weeks following exposure. Globally, an estimate of 97 430 excess deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 71 651-126 438) per decade were observed over the 2 weeks following exposure to tropical cyclones, accounting for 20·7 (95% eCI 15·2-26·9) excess deaths per 100 000 residents (excess death rate) and 3·3 (95% eCI 2·4-4·3) excess deaths per 1000 deaths (excess death ratio) over 1980-2019. The mortality burden exhibited substantial temporal and spatial variation. East Asia and south Asia had the highest number of excess deaths during 1980-2019: 28 744 (95% eCI 16 863-42 188) and 27 267 (21 157-34 058) excess deaths per decade, respectively. In contrast, the regions with the highest excess death ratios and rates were southeast Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. From 1980-99 to 2000-19, marked increases in tropical cyclone-related excess death numbers were observed globally, especially for Latin America and the Caribbean and south Asia. Grid cell-level and country-level results revealed further heterogeneous spatiotemporal patterns such as the high and increasing tropical cyclone-related mortality burden in Caribbean countries or regions. INTERPRETATION: Globally, short-term exposure to tropical cyclones was associated with a significant mortality burden, with highly heterogeneous spatiotemporal patterns. In-depth exploration of tropical cyclone epidemiology for those countries and regions estimated to have the highest and increasing tropical cyclone-related mortality burdens is urgently needed to help inform the development of targeted actions against the increasing adverse health impacts of tropical cyclones under a changing climate. FUNDING: Australian Research Council and Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Risk of type 2 diabetes after diagnosed gestational diabetes is enhanced by exposure to PM2.5.

BACKGROUND: Air pollution and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) are both associated with increased diabetes mellitus (DM) occurrence. However, whether air pollutants modify the effects of GDM on the occurrence of DM has been unknown. This study aims to determine whether the effect of GDM on DM development can be modified by exposure to ambient air pollutants. METHODS: Women with one singleton birth delivery during 2004-14 according to the Taiwan Birth Certificate Database (TBCD) were included as the study cohort. Those newly diagnosed as having DM 1 year or later after childbirth were identified as DM cases. Controls were selected among women without DM diagnosis during follow-up. Personal residence was geocoded and linked with interpolated concentrations of air pollutants into township levels. Conditional logistic regression was used to determine the odds ratio (OR) of pollutant exposure and GDM, adjusting for age, smoking and meteorological variables. RESULTS: There were 9846 women who were newly diagnosed as having DM over a mean follow-up period of 10.2 years. We involved them and the 10-fold matching controls involved in our final analysis. The OR (odds ratio) (95% confidence interval, 95% CI) of DM occurrence per interquartile range increased in particulate matter (PM) smaller than or equal to 2.5 µm (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) was 1.31 (1.22-1.41) and 1.20 (1.16-1.25), respectively. The effects of PM exposure on DM development were significantly higher in the GDM group (OR: 2.46, 95% CI: 1.84-3.30) than in the non-GDM group (OR: 1.30, 95% CI: 1.21-1.40). CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to high levels of PM2.5 and O3 elevates the risk of DM. GDM acted synergistically in DM development with exposure to PM2.5 but not with that to O3.

Heat-related cardiorespiratory mortality: Effect modification by air pollution across 482 cities from 24 countries.

BACKGROUND: Evidence on the potential interactive effects of heat and ambient air pollution on cause-specific mortality is inconclusive and limited to selected locations. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the effects of heat on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality and its modification by air pollution during summer months (six consecutive hottest months) in 482 locations across 24 countries. METHODS: Location-specific daily death counts and exposure data (e.g., particulate matter with diameters ≤ 2.5 µm [PM2.5]) were obtained from 2000 to 2018. We used location-specific confounder-adjusted Quasi-Poisson regression with a tensor product between air temperature and the air pollutant. We extracted heat effects at low, medium, and high levels of pollutants, defined as the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile of the location-specific pollutant concentrations. Country-specific and overall estimates were derived using a random-effects multilevel meta-analytical model. RESULTS: Heat was associated with increased cardiorespiratory mortality. Moreover, the heat effects were modified by elevated levels of all air pollutants in most locations, with stronger effects for respiratory than cardiovascular mortality. For example, the percent increase in respiratory mortality per increase in the 2-day average summer temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile was 7.7% (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 7.6-7.7), 11.3% (95%CI 11.2-11.3), and 14.3% (95% CI 14.1-14.5) at low, medium, and high levels of PM2.5, respectively. Similarly, cardiovascular mortality increased by 1.6 (95%CI 1.5-1.6), 5.1 (95%CI 5.1-5.2), and 8.7 (95%CI 8.7-8.8) at low, medium, and high levels of O3, respectively. DISCUSSION: We observed considerable modification of the heat effects on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality by elevated levels of air pollutants. Therefore, mitigation measures following the new WHO Air Quality Guidelines are crucial to enhance better health and promote sustainable development.

Long-Term Exposure to Air Pollution and the Occurrence of Metabolic Syndrome and Its Components in Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic syndrome (MetS), a major contributor to cardiovascular and metabolic diseases, has been linked with exposure to air pollution. However, the relationship between air pollutants and the five components of MetS [abdominal obesity, elevated triglyceride, decreased high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), elevated blood pressure, and elevated fasting blood glucose levels], has not been clearly described. OBJECTIVE: We examined the association between long-term exposure to air pollutants and the occurrence of MetS and its components by using a longitudinal cohort in Taiwan. METHODS: The MJ Health Research Foundation is a medical institute that conducts regular physical examinations. The development of MetS, based on a health examination and the medical history of an MJ cohort of 93,771 participants who were enrolled between 2006 and 2016 and had two or more examinations, was compared with estimated exposure to air pollutants in the year prior to health examination. The exposure levels to fine particulate matter [PM with an aerodynamic diameter of ≤2.5µm (PM2.5)] and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in the participants' residential areas were estimated using a hybrid Kriging/land-use regression (LUR) model executed using the XGBoost algorithm and a hybrid Kriging/LUR model, respectively. Cox regression with time-dependent covariates was conducted to estimate the effects of annual air pollutant exposure on the risk of MetS and its components. RESULTS: During the average follow-up period of 3.4 y, the incidence of MetS was 38.1/1,000 person-years. After mutual adjustment and adjustments for potential covariates, the results indicated that every 10-µg/m3 increase in annual PM2.5 concentration was associated with an increased risk of abdominal obesity [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR)=1.07; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01, 1.14], hypertriglyceridemia (aHR=1.17; 95% CI: 1.11, 1.23), low HDL-C (aHR=1.09; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.17), hypertension (aHR=1.15; 95% CI: 1.09, 1.21), and elevated fasting blood glucose (aHR=1.15; 95% CI: 1.10, 1.20). Furthermore, PM2.5 and NO2 may increase the risk of developing MetS among people who already "have" some components of MetS. DISCUSSION: Our findings suggest that in apparently healthy adults undergoing physical examination, exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 might be associated with the occurrence of MetS and its components. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10611.

Associations Between Extreme Temperatures and Cardiovascular Cause-Specific Mortality: Results From 27 Countries.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. Existing studies on the association between temperatures and cardiovascular deaths have been limited in geographic zones and have generally considered associations with total cardiovascular deaths rather than cause-specific cardiovascular deaths. METHODS: We used unified data collection protocols within the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Network to assemble a database of daily counts of specific cardiovascular causes of death from 567 cities in 27 countries across 5 continents in overlapping periods ranging from 1979 to 2019. City-specific daily ambient temperatures were obtained from weather stations and climate reanalysis models. To investigate cardiovascular mortality associations with extreme hot and cold temperatures, we fit case-crossover models in each city and then used a mixed-effects meta-analytic framework to pool individual city estimates. Extreme temperature percentiles were compared with the minimum mortality temperature in each location. Excess deaths were calculated for a range of extreme temperature days. RESULTS: The analyses included deaths from any cardiovascular cause (32 154 935), ischemic heart disease (11 745 880), stroke (9 351 312), heart failure (3 673 723), and arrhythmia (670 859). At extreme temperature percentiles, heat (99th percentile) and cold (1st percentile) were associated with higher risk of dying from any cardiovascular cause, ischemic heart disease, stroke, and heart failure as compared to the minimum mortality temperature, which is the temperature associated with least mortality. Across a range of extreme temperatures, hot days (above 97.5th percentile) and cold days (below 2.5th percentile) accounted for 2.2 (95% empirical CI [eCI], 2.1-2.3) and 9.1 (95% eCI, 8.9-9.2) excess deaths for every 1000 cardiovascular deaths, respectively. Heart failure was associated with the highest excess deaths proportion from extreme hot and cold days with 2.6 (95% eCI, 2.4-2.8) and 12.8 (95% eCI, 12.2-13.1) for every 1000 heart failure deaths, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Across a large, multinational sample, exposure to extreme hot and cold temperatures was associated with a greater risk of mortality from multiple common cardiovascular conditions. The intersections between extreme temperatures and cardiovascular health need to be thoroughly characterized in the present day-and especially under a changing climate.

Coarse Particulate Air Pollution and Daily Mortality: A Global Study in 205 Cities.

Rationale: The associations between ambient coarse particulate matter (PM2.5-10) and daily mortality are not fully understood on a global scale. Objectives: To evaluate the short-term associations between PM2.5-10 and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries/regions worldwide. Methods: We collected daily mortality (total, cardiovascular, and respiratory) and air pollution data from 205 cities in 20 countries/regions. Concentrations of PM2.5-10 were computed as the difference between inhalable and fine PM. A two-stage time-series analytic approach was applied, with overdispersed generalized linear models and multilevel meta-analysis. We fitted two-pollutant models to test the independent effect of PM2.5-10 from copollutants (fine PM, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, ozone, and carbon monoxide). Exposure-response relationship curves were pooled, and regional analyses were conducted. Measurements and Main Results: A 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5-10 concentration on lag 0-1 day was associated with increments of 0.51% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.18%-0.84%), 0.43% (95% CI, 0.15%-0.71%), and 0.41% (95% CI, 0.06%-0.77%) in total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. The associations varied by country and region. These associations were robust to adjustment by all copollutants in two-pollutant models, especially for PM2.5. The exposure-response curves for total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality were positive, with steeper slopes at lower exposure ranges and without discernible thresholds. Conclusions: This study provides novel global evidence on the robust and independent associations between short-term exposure to ambient PM2.5-10 and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, suggesting the need to establish a unique guideline or regulatory limit for daily concentrations of PM2.5-10.

Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000-19: a three-stage modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability. However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperature variability and mortality across 43 countries or regions. Then, to provide a more comprehensive picture of the global burden of mortality associated with temperature variability, global gridded temperature data with a resolution of 0·5°â€ˆ× 0·5° were used to assess the temperature variability-related mortality burden at the global, regional, and national levels. Furthermore, temporal trends in temperature variability-related mortality burden were also explored from 2000-19. METHODS: In this modelling study, we applied a three-stage meta-analytical approach to assess the global temperature variability-related mortality burden at a spatial resolution of 0·5°â€ˆ× 0·5° from 2000-19. Temperature variability was calculated as the SD of the average of the same and previous days' minimum and maximum temperatures. We first obtained location-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations based on a daily time series of 750 locations from the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network. We subsequently constructed a multivariable meta-regression model with five predictors to estimate grid-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations across the globe. Finally, percentage excess in mortality and excess mortality rate were calculated to quantify the temperature variability-related mortality burden and to further explore its temporal trend over two decades. FINDINGS: An increasing trend in temperature variability was identified at the global level from 2000 to 2019. Globally, 1 753 392 deaths (95% CI 1 159 901-2 357 718) were associated with temperature variability per year, accounting for 3·4% (2·2-4·6) of all deaths. Most of Asia, Australia, and New Zealand were observed to have a higher percentage excess in mortality than the global mean. Globally, the percentage excess in mortality increased by about 4·6% (3·7-5·3) per decade. The largest increase occurred in Australia and New Zealand (7·3%, 95% CI 4·3-10·4), followed by Europe (4·4%, 2·2-5·6) and Africa (3·3, 1·9-4·6). INTERPRETATION: Globally, a substantial mortality burden was associated with temperature variability, showing geographical heterogeneity and a slightly increasing temporal trend. Our findings could assist in raising public awareness and improving the understanding of the health impacts of temperature variability. FUNDING: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.

Living proximity to petrochemical industries and the risk of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder in children.

Evidence regarding the negative neurodevelopmental effects of compound exposure to petrochemicals remains limited. We aimed to evaluate the association between exposure to petrochemical facilities and generated emissions during early life and the risk of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) development in children. We conducted a population-based birth cohort study using the 2004 to 2014 Taiwanese Birth Certificate Database and verified diagnoses of ADHD using the National Health Insurance Database. The level of petrochemical exposure in each participant's residential township was evaluated using the following 3 measurements: distance to the nearest petrochemical industrial plant (PIP), petrochemical exposure probability (accounting for monthly prevailing wind measurements), and monthly benzene concentrations estimated using kriging-based land-use regression models. We applied Cox proportional hazard models to evaluate the association. During the study period, 48,854 out of 1,863,963 children were diagnosed as having ADHD. The results revealed that residents of townships in close proximity to PIPs (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.20, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.16-1.23, <3 vs. ≥10 km), highly affected by petrochemical-containing prevailing winds (HR = 1.12, 95% CI: 1.08-1.16, ≥40% vs. <10%), and with high benzene concentrations (HR = 1.26, 95% CI: 1.23-1.29, ≥0.75 vs. <0.55 ppb) were consistently associated with the increased risk of ADHD development in children. The findings of the sensitivity analysis remained robust, particularly for the 2004 to 2009 birth cohort and for models accounting for a longer duration of postnatal exposure. This work provided clear evidence that living near petrochemical plants increases the risk of ADHD development in children. Further studies are warranted to confirm our findings.

Proximity to petrochemical industrial parks and risk of chronic glomerulonephritis.

This study determined whether individuals residing near petrochemical industrial parks (PIPs) have a higher risk of chronic glomerulonephritis (CGN). We performed population-based 1:4 case-control study by using Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database from 2000 to 2016. The subjects were aged 20-65 years, residing in western Taiwan, and did not have a history of any renal or urinary system disease in 2000. The case cohort included those who had at least three outpatient visits or one hospitalization between 2001 and 2016 with codes for CGN as per International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-Ninth and Tenth Revisions. Controls were randomly sampled age-, sex-, and urbanization-matched individuals without renal and urinary system diseases. Petrochemical exposure was evaluated by the distance to the nearest PIP of the residential township, and petrochemical exposure probability was examined considering the monthly prevailing wind direction. Conditional logistic regression was used to determine the association between petrochemical exposure and CGN risk. A total of 320,935 subjects were included in the final analysis (64,187 cases and 256,748 controls). After adjustment for potential confounders, living in townships within a 3-km radius of PIPs was associated with a higher risk of CGN (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.32, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.28-1.37). Compared with townships more than 20 km away from PIPs, those within 10 km of PIPs were associated with significantly increased risks of CGN in a dose-dependent manner. When prevailing wind was considered, townships with high exposure probability were associated with a significantly increased risk of CGN. We found that those residing near PIPs or with high petrochemical exposure probability had a higher risk of CGN. These findings highlight the need for monitoring environmental nephrotoxic substances and the renal health of residents living near PIPs.

Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM2·5 pollution: a global time series study in 749 locations.

BACKGROUND: Many regions of the world are now facing more frequent and unprecedentedly large wildfires. However, the association between wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality has not been well characterised. We aimed to comprehensively assess the association between short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality across various regions of the world. METHODS: For this time series study, data on daily counts of deaths for all causes, cardiovascular causes, and respiratory causes were collected from 749 cities in 43 countries and regions during 2000-16. Daily concentrations of wildfire-related PM2·5 were estimated using the three-dimensional chemical transport model GEOS-Chem at a 0·25°â€ˆ× 0·25° resolution. The association between wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure and mortality was examined using a quasi-Poisson time series model in each city considering both the current-day and lag effects, and the effect estimates were then pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Based on these pooled effect estimates, the population attributable fraction and relative risk (RR) of annual mortality due to acute wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure was calculated. FINDINGS: 65·6 million all-cause deaths, 15·1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 6·8 million respiratory deaths were included in our analyses. The pooled RRs of mortality associated with each 10 µg/m3 increase in the 3-day moving average (lag 0-2 days) of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure were 1·019 (95% CI 1·016-1·022) for all-cause mortality, 1·017 (1·012-1·021) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1·019 (1·013-1·025) for respiratory mortality. Overall, 0·62% (95% CI 0·48-0·75) of all-cause deaths, 0·55% (0·43-0·67) of cardiovascular deaths, and 0·64% (0·50-0·78) of respiratory deaths were annually attributable to the acute impacts of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure during the study period. INTERPRETATION: Short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 was associated with increased risk of mortality. Urgent action is needed to reduce health risks from the increasing wildfires. FUNDING: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.

Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures. METHODS: In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5°â€ˆ× 0·5° across the globe. A three-stage analysis strategy was used. First, the temperature-mortality association was fitted for each location by use of a time-series regression. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was built between location-specific estimates and meta-predictors. Finally, the grid-specific temperature-mortality association between 2000 and 2019 was predicted by use of the fitted meta-regression and the grid-specific meta-predictors. Excess deaths due to non-optimal temperatures, the ratio between annual excess deaths and all deaths of a year (the excess death ratio), and the death rate per 100 000 residents were then calculated for each grid across the world. Grids were divided according to regional groupings of the UN Statistics Division. FINDINGS: Globally, 5 083 173 deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 4 087 967-5 965 520) were associated with non-optimal temperatures per year, accounting for 9·43% (95% eCI 7·58-11·07) of all deaths (8·52% [6·19-10·47] were cold-related and 0·91% [0·56-1·36] were heat-related). There were 74 temperature-related excess deaths per 100 000 residents (95% eCI 60-87). The mortality burden varied geographically. Of all excess deaths, 2 617 322 (51·49%) occurred in Asia. Eastern Europe had the highest heat-related excess death rate and Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest cold-related excess death rate. From 2000-03 to 2016-19, the global cold-related excess death ratio changed by -0·51 percentage points (95% eCI -0·61 to -0·42) and the global heat-related excess death ratio increased by 0·21 percentage points (0·13-0·31), leading to a net reduction in the overall ratio. The largest decline in overall excess death ratio occurred in South-eastern Asia, whereas excess death ratio fluctuated in Southern Asia and Europe. INTERPRETATION: Non-optimal temperatures are associated with a substantial mortality burden, which varies spatiotemporally. Our findings will benefit international, national, and local communities in developing preparedness and prevention strategies to reduce weather-related impacts immediately and under climate change scenarios. FUNDING: Australian Research Council and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Short term associations of ambient nitrogen dioxide with daily total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality: multilocation analysis in 398 cities.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the short term associations between nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries/regions worldwide, using a uniform analytical protocol. DESIGN: Two stage, time series approach, with overdispersed generalised linear models and multilevel meta-analysis. SETTING: 398 cities in 22 low to high income countries/regions. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Daily deaths from total (62.8 million), cardiovascular (19.7 million), and respiratory (5.5 million) causes between 1973 and 2018. RESULTS: On average, a 10 µg/m3 increase in NO2 concentration on lag 1 day (previous day) was associated with 0.46% (95% confidence interval 0.36% to 0.57%), 0.37% (0.22% to 0.51%), and 0.47% (0.21% to 0.72%) increases in total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. These associations remained robust after adjusting for co-pollutants (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 µm or ≤2.5 µm (PM10 and PM2.5, respectively), ozone, sulfur dioxide, and carbon monoxide). The pooled concentration-response curves for all three causes were almost linear without discernible thresholds. The proportion of deaths attributable to NO2 concentration above the counterfactual zero level was 1.23% (95% confidence interval 0.96% to 1.51%) across the 398 cities. CONCLUSIONS: This multilocation study provides key evidence on the independent and linear associations between short term exposure to NO2 and increased risk of total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, suggesting that health benefits would be achieved by tightening the guidelines and regulatory limits of NO2.

Maternal proximity to petrochemical industrial parks and risk of premature rupture of membranes.

BACKGROUND: Living near petrochemical industries has been reported to increase the risks of adverse birth outcomes, such as low birth weight and preterm delivery. However, evidence regarding the role of petrochemical exposure in pregnancy complications remains limited. This study evaluated the association between maternal proximity to petrochemical industrial parks (PIPs) during pregnancy and the occurrence of premature rupture of membranes (PROM). METHODS: We performed a population-based 1:3 case-control study by using the 2004-2014 Taiwanese Birth Certificate Database. Birth records reported as stillbirth or bearing congenital anomalies were excluded. Cases were newborns reported to have PROM, whereas controls were randomly sampled from those without any pregnancy complications by matching birth year and urbanization index of the residential township. The proximity to PIPs was evaluated by calculating the distance to the nearest PIP of the maternal residential township during pregnancy. Furthermore, petrochemical exposure opportunity, accounting for monthly prevailing wind direction, was quantified during the entire gestational period. We applied conditional logistic regression models to evaluate the associations. RESULTS: In total, 29371 PROM cases were reported during the study period, with a corresponding 88113 healthy controls sampled. The results revealed that living within a 3-km radius of PIPs during pregnancy would increase the risk of PROM (odds ratio [OR] = 1.76, 95% CI: 1.66-1.87). Furthermore, compared with the lowest exposed group, those with high petrochemical exposure opportunity had a significantly increased risk of PROM occurrence (OR = 1.69-1.75). The adverse effects remained robust in the subgroup analysis for both term- and preterm-PROM. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the present work provide evidence that living near PIPs during pregnancy would increase the risk of PROM, and additional studies are warranted to confirm our findings.