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1.
J Hydrometeorol ; 25(5): 709-733, 2024 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38994349

ABSTRACT

Hydrological predictions at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) time scales can support improved decision-making in climate-dependent sectors like agriculture and hydropower. Here, we present an S2S hydrological forecasting system (S2S-HFS) for western tropical South America (WTSA). The system uses the global NASA Goddard Earth Observing System S2S meteorological forecast system (GEOS-S2S) in combination with the generalized analog regression downscaling algorithm and the NASA Land Information System (LIS). In this implementation study, we evaluate system performance for 3-month hydrological forecasts for the austral autumn season (March-May) using ensemble hindcasts for 2002-17. Results indicate that the S2S-HFS generally offers skill in predictions of monthly precipitation up to 1-month lead, evapotranspiration up to 2 months lead, and soil moisture content up to 3 months lead. Ecoregions with better hindcast performance are located either in the coastal lowlands or in the Amazon lowland forest. We perform dedicated analysis to understand how two important teleconnections affecting the region are represented in the S2S-HFS: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). We find that forecast skill for all variables at 1-month lead is enhanced during the positive phase of ENSO and the negative phase of AAO. Overall, this study indicates that there is meaningful skill in the S2S-HFS for many ecoregions in WTSA, particularly for long memory variables such as soil moisture. The skill of the precipitation forecast, however, decays rapidly after forecast initialization, a phenomenon that is consistent with S2S meteorological forecasts over much of the world.

2.
PLOS Clim ; 3(4)2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39027120

ABSTRACT

Malaria transmission is influenced by climate and land use/land cover change (LULC). This study examines the impact of climate and LULC on malaria risk in the Ecuadorian Amazon. Weekly malaria surveillance data between 2008 and 2019 from Ecuador's Ministry of Public Health were combined with hydrometeorological and LULC data. Cross-correlation analyses identified time lags. Bayesian spatiotemporal models estimated annual LULC rates of change (ARC) by census area and assessed the effects on Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum incidence. ARC for the five land cover classes (forest, agriculture, urban, shrub vegetation, water) ranged from -1 to 4% with agriculture increasing across areas. Forest and shrub vegetation ARC were significantly associated with both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum. Temperature and terrestrial water content showed consistent negative relationships with both species. Precipitation had varying effects on Plasmodium vivax (null) and Plasmodium falciparum (increase) incidence. Shrubs and forest expansion, increased temperature, and terrestrial water content reduced malaria incidence, while increased precipitation had varying effects. Relationships between malaria, LULC, and climate are complex, influencing risk profiles. These findings aid decision-making and guide further research in the region.

3.
BMJ Open ; 14(4): e078911, 2024 Apr 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38626977

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Understanding human mobility's role in malaria transmission is critical to successful control and elimination. However, common approaches to measuring mobility are ill-equipped for remote regions such as the Amazon. This study develops a network survey to quantify the effect of community connectivity and mobility on malaria transmission. METHODS: We measure community connectivity across the study area using a respondent driven sampling design among key informants who are at least 18 years of age. 45 initial communities will be selected: 10 in Brazil, 10 in Ecuador and 25 in Peru. Participants will be recruited in each initial node and administered a survey to obtain data on each community's mobility patterns. Survey responses will be ranked and the 2-3 most connected communities will then be selected and surveyed. This process will be repeated for a third round of data collection. Community network matrices will be linked with each country's malaria surveillance system to test the effects of mobility on disease risk. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study protocol has been approved by the institutional review boards of Duke University (USA), Universidad San Francisco de Quito (Ecuador), Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia (Peru) and Universidade Federal Minas Gerais (Brazil). Results will be disseminated in communities by the end of the study.


Subject(s)
Community Networks , Malaria , Humans , Peru/epidemiology , Ecuador/epidemiology , Brazil/epidemiology , Malaria/epidemiology , Malaria/prevention & control
6.
medRxiv ; 2023 Nov 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38076857

ABSTRACT

Objectives: Understanding human mobility's role on malaria transmission is critical to successful control and elimination. However, common approaches to measuring mobility are ill-equipped for remote regions such as the Amazon. This study develops a network survey to quantify the effect of community connectivity and mobility on malaria transmission. Design: A community-level network survey. Setting: We collect data on community connectivity along three river systems in the Amazon basin: the Pastaza river corridor spanning the Ecuador-Peru border; and the Amazon and Javari river corridors spanning the Brazil-Peru border. Participants: We interviewed key informants in Brazil, Ecuador, and Peru, including from indigenous communities: Shuar, Achuar, Shiwiar, Kichwa, Ticuna, and Yagua. Key informants are at least 18 years of age and are considered community leaders. Primary outcome: Weekly, community-level malaria incidence during the study period. Methods: We measure community connectivity across the study area using a respondent driven sampling design. Forty-five communities were initially selected: 10 in Brazil, 10 in Ecuador, and 25 in Peru. Participants were recruited in each initial node and administered a survey to obtain data on each community's mobility patterns. Survey responses were ranked and the 2-3 most connected communities were then selected and surveyed. This process was repeated for a third round of data collection. Community network matrices will be linked with eadch country's malaria surveillance system to test the effects of mobility on disease risk. Findings: To date, 586 key informants were surveyed from 126 communities along the Pastaza river corridor. Data collection along the Amazon and Javari river corridors is ongoing. Initial results indicate that network sampling is a superior method to delineate migration flows between communities. Conclusions: Our study provides measures of mobility and connectivity in rural settings where traditional approaches are insufficient, and will allow us to understand mobility's effect on malaria transmission.

7.
PLoS One ; 18(11): e0287412, 2023.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37910447

ABSTRACT

Gulf War Illness (GWI) is a major health problem for approximately 250,000 Gulf War (GW) veterans, but the etiology of GWI is unclear. We hypothesized that mitochondrial dysfunction is an important contributor to GWI, based on the similarity of some GWI symptoms to those occurring in some mitochondrial diseases; the plausibility that certain pollutants to which GW veterans were exposed affect mitochondria; mitochondrial effects observed in studies in laboratory models of GWI; and previous evidence of mitochondrial outcomes in studies in GW veterans. A primary role of mitochondria is generation of energy via oxidative phosphorylation. However, direct assessment of mitochondrial respiration, reflecting oxidative phosphorylation, has not been carried out in veterans with GWI. In this case-control observational study, we tested multiple measures of mitochondrial function and integrity in a cohort of 114 GW veterans, 80 with and 34 without GWI as assessed by the Kansas definition. In circulating white blood cells, we analyzed multiple measures of mitochondrial respiration and extracellular acidification, a proxy for non-aerobic energy generation; mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) copy number; mtDNA damage; and nuclear DNA damage. We also collected detailed survey data on demographics; deployment; self-reported exposure to pesticides, pyridostigmine bromide, and chemical and biological warfare agents; and current biometrics, health and activity levels. We observed a 9% increase in mtDNA content in blood in veterans with GWI, but did not detect differences in DNA damage. Basal and ATP-linked oxygen consumption were respectively 42% and 47% higher in veterans without GWI, after adjustment for mtDNA amount. We did not find evidence for a compensatory increase in anaerobic energy generation: extracellular acidification was also lower in GWI (12% lower at baseline). A subset of 27 and 26 veterans returned for second and third visits, allowing us to measure stability of mitochondrial parameters over time. mtDNA CN, mtDNA damage, ATP-linked OCR, and spare respiratory capacity were moderately replicable over time, with intraclass correlation coefficients of 0.43, 0.44, 0.50, and 0.57, respectively. Other measures showed higher visit-to-visit variability. Many measurements showed lower replicability over time among veterans with GWI compared to veterans without GWI. Finally, we found a strong association between recalled exposure to pesticides, pyridostigmine bromide, and chemical and biological warfare agents and GWI (p < 0.01, p < 0.01, and p < 0.0001, respectively). Our results demonstrate decreased mitochondrial respiratory function as well as decreased glycolytic activity, both of which are consistent with decreased energy availability, in peripheral blood mononuclear cells in veterans with GWI.


Subject(s)
Persian Gulf Syndrome , Pesticides , Veterans , Humans , Adenosine Triphosphate , Biological Warfare Agents , DNA, Mitochondrial , Energy Metabolism , Gulf War , Leukocytes, Mononuclear , Pyridostigmine Bromide , Case-Control Studies
8.
Epidemiol Infect ; 151: e202, 2023 Nov 30.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38031496

ABSTRACT

Migration is an important risk factor for malaria transmission for malaria transmission, creating networks that connect Plasmodium between communities. This study aims to understand the timing of why people in the Peruvian Amazon migrated and how characteristics of these migrants are associated with malaria risk. A cohort of 2,202 participants was followed for three years (July 2006 - October 2009), with thrice-weekly active surveillance to record infection and recent travel, which included travel destination(s) and duration away. Migration occurred more frequently in the dry season, but the 7-day rolling mean (7DRM) streamflow was positively correlated with migration events (OR 1.25 (95% CI: 1.138, 1.368)). High-frequency and low-frequency migrant populations reported 9.7 (IRR 7.59 (95% CI:.381, 13.160)) and 4.1 (IRR 2.89 (95% CI: 1.636, 5.099)) times more P. vivax cases than those considered non-migrants and 30.7 (IRR 32.42 (95% CI: 7.977, 131.765)) and 7.4 (IRR 7.44 (95% CI: 1.783, 31.066)) times more P. falciparum cases, respectively. High-frequency migrants employed in manual labour within their community were at 2.45 (95% CI: 1.113, 5.416) times higher risk than non-employed low-frequency migrants. This study confirms the importance of migration for malaria risk as well as factors increasing risk among the migratory community, including, sex, occupation, and educational status.


Subject(s)
Malaria, Falciparum , Malaria, Vivax , Malaria , Humans , Malaria, Vivax/epidemiology , Malaria, Falciparum/epidemiology , Plasmodium vivax , Plasmodium falciparum , Peru/epidemiology , Prospective Studies , Malaria/epidemiology
9.
Parasit Vectors ; 16(1): 410, 2023 Nov 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37941062

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Models can be used to study and predict the impact of interventions aimed at controlling the spread of infectious agents, such as Taenia solium, a zoonotic parasite whose larval stage causes epilepsy and economic loss in many rural areas of the developing nations. To enhance the credibility of model estimates, calibration against observed data is necessary. However, this process may lead to a paradoxical dependence of model parameters on location-specific data, thus limiting the model's geographic transferability. METHODS: In this study, we adopted a non-local model calibration approach to assess whether it can improve the spatial transferability of CystiAgent, our agent-based model of local-scale T. solium transmission. The calibration dataset for CystiAgent consisted of cross-sectional data on human taeniasis, pig cysticercosis and pig serology collected in eight villages in Northwest Peru. After calibration, the model was transferred to a second group of 21 destination villages in the same area without recalibrating its parameters. Model outputs were compared to pig serology data collected over a period of 2 years in the destination villages during a trial of T. solium control interventions, based on mass and spatially targeted human and pig treatments. RESULTS: Considering the uncertainties associated with empirical data, the model produced simulated pre-intervention pig seroprevalences that were successfully validated against data collected in 81% of destination villages. Furthermore, the model outputs were able to reproduce validated pig seroincidence values in 76% of destination villages when compared to the data obtained after the interventions. The results demonstrate that the CystiAgent model, when calibrated using a non-local approach, can be successfully transferred without requiring additional calibration. CONCLUSIONS: This feature allows the model to simulate both baseline pre-intervention transmission conditions and the outcomes of control interventions across villages that form geographically homogeneous regions, providing a basis for developing large-scale models representing T. solium transmission at a regional level.


Subject(s)
Cysticercosis , Swine Diseases , Taenia solium , Taeniasis , Humans , Animals , Swine , Cross-Sectional Studies , Swine Diseases/epidemiology , Swine Diseases/prevention & control , Swine Diseases/parasitology , Cysticercosis/epidemiology , Cysticercosis/prevention & control , Cysticercosis/veterinary , Taeniasis/epidemiology , Taeniasis/prevention & control , Taeniasis/parasitology
10.
Environ Health Perspect ; 131(9): 97008, 2023 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37747404

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Few birth cohorts in South America evaluate the joint effect of minerals and toxic metals on neonatal health. In Madre de Dios, Peru, mercury exposure is prevalent owing to artisanal gold mining, yet its effect on neonatal health is unknown. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to determine whether toxic metals are associated with lower birth weight and shorter gestational age independently of antenatal care and other maternal well-being factors. METHODS: Data are from the COhorte de NAcimiento de MAdre de Dios (CONAMAD) birth cohort, which enrolled pregnant women in Madre de Dios prior to their third trimester and obtained maternal and cord blood samples at birth. We use structural equation models (SEMs) to construct latent variables for the maternal metals environment (ME) and the fetal environment (FE) using concentrations of calcium, iron, selenium, zinc, magnesium, mercury, lead, and arsenic measured in maternal and cord blood, respectively. We then assessed the relationship between the latent variables ME and FE, toxic metals, prenatal visits, hypertension, and their effect on gestational age and birth weight. RESULTS: Among 198 mothers successfully enrolled and followed at birth, 29% had blood mercury levels that exceeded the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention threshold of 5.8µg/L and 2 mothers surpassed the former 5-µg/dL threshold for blood lead. The current threshold value is 3.5µg/dL. Minerals and toxic metals loaded onto ME and FE latent variables. ME was associated with FE (ß=0.24; 95% CI: 0.05, 0.45). FE was associated with longer gestational age (ß=2.31; 95% CI: -0.3, 4.51) and heavier birth weight. Mercury exposure was not directly associated with health outcomes. A 1% increase in maternal blood lead shortened gestational age by 0.05 d (ß=-0.75; 95% CI: -1.51, -0.13), which at the 5-µg/dL threshold resulted in a loss of 3.6 gestational days and 76.5g in birth weight for newborns. Prenatal care visits were associated with improved birth outcomes, with a doubling of visits from 6 to 12 associated with 5.5 more gestational days (95% CI: 1.6, 9.4) and 319g of birth weight (95% CI: 287.6, 350.7). DISCUSSION: Maternal lead, even at low exposures, was associated with shorter gestation and lower birth weight. Studies that focus only on harmful exposures or nutrition may mischaracterize the dynamic maternal ME and FE. SEMs provide a framework to evaluate these complex relationships during pregnancy and reduce overcontrolling that can occur with linear regression. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10557.


Subject(s)
Birth Cohort , Mercury , Humans , Female , Infant, Newborn , Pregnancy , Birth Weight , Gold , Peru/epidemiology , Mercury/analysis , Mining , Minerals , Maternal Exposure
11.
Scand J Public Health ; 51(5): 682-691, 2023 Jul.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36883722

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The overarching aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness over time of government interventions and policy restrictions and the impact of determinants on spread and mortality during the first-wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, globally, regionally and by country-income level, up to 18 May 2020. METHODS: We created a global database merging World Health Organization daily case reports (from 218 countries/territories) with other socio-demographic and population health measures from 21 January to 18 May 2020. A four-level government policy interventions score (low to very high) was created based on the Oxford Stringency Index. RESULTS: Our results support the use of very high government interventions to suppress both COVID-19 spread and mortality effectively during wave one globally compared to other policy levels of control. Similar trends in virus propagation and mortality were observed in all country-income levels and specific regions. CONCLUSIONS: Rapid implementation of government interventions was needed to contain the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak and to reduce COVID-19-related mortality.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , SARS-CoV-2 , Pandemics/prevention & control , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Policy , Government
12.
Lancet Reg Health Am ; 20: 100477, 2023 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36970494

ABSTRACT

Background: Although malaria control investments worldwide have resulted in dramatic declines in transmission since 2000, progress has stalled. In the Amazon, malaria resurgence has followed withdrawal of Global Fund support of the Project for Malaria Control in Andean Border Areas (PAMAFRO). We estimate intervention-specific and spatially-explicit effects of the PAMAFRO program on malaria incidence across the Loreto region of Peru, and consider the influence of the environmental risk factors in the presence of interventions. Methods: We conducted a retrospective, observational, spatial interrupted time series analysis of malaria incidence rates among people reporting to health posts across Loreto, Peru between the first epidemiological week of January 2001 and the last epidemiological week of December 2016. Model inference is at the smallest administrative unit (district), where the weekly number of diagnosed cases of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum were determined by microscopy. Census data provided population at risk. We include as covariates weekly estimates of minimum temperature and cumulative precipitation in each district, as well as spatially- and temporally-lagged malaria incidence rates. Environmental data were derived from a hydrometeorological model designed for the Amazon. We used Bayesian spatiotemporal modeling techniques to estimate the impact of the PAMAFRO program, variability in environmental effects, and the role of climate anomalies on transmission after PAMAFRO withdrawal. Findings: During the PAMAFRO program, incidence of P. vivax declined from 42.8 to 10.1 cases/1000 people/year. Incidence for P. falciparum declined from 14.3 to 2.5 cases/1000 people/year over this same period. The effects of PAMAFRO-supported interventions varied both by geography and species of malaria. Interventions were only effective in districts where interventions were also deployed in surrounding districts. Further, interventions diminished the effects of other prevailing demographic and environmental risk factors. Withdrawal of the program led to a resurgence in transmission. Increasing minimum temperatures and variability and intensity of rainfall events from 2011 onward and accompanying population displacements contributed to this resurgence. Interpretation: Malaria control programs must consider the climate and environmental scope of interventions to maximize effectiveness. They must also ensure financial sustainability to maintain local progress and commitment to malaria prevention and elimination efforts, as well as to offset the effects of environmental change that increase transmission risk. Funding: National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Institutes of Health, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

13.
Lancet Planet Health ; 6(11): e909-e918, 2022 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36370729

ABSTRACT

To date, there are few examples of implementation science studies that help guide climate-related health adaptation. Implementation science is the study of methods to promote the adoption and integration of evidence-based tools, interventions, and policies into practice to improve population health. These studies can provide the needed empirical evidence to prioritise and inform implementation of health adaptation efforts. This Personal View discusses five case studies that deployed disease early warning systems around the world. These cases studies illustrate challenges to deploying early warning systems and guide recommendations for implementation science approaches to enhance future research. We propose theory-informed approaches to understand multilevel barriers, design strategies to overcome those barriers, and analyse the ability of those strategies to advance the uptake and scale-up of climate-related health interventions. These findings build upon previous theoretical work by grounding implementation science recommendations and guidance in the context of real-world practice, as detailed in the case studies.


Subject(s)
Climate Change , Implementation Science
14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36237535

ABSTRACT

Background: Studies have shown elevated blood lead levels (BLL) in residents of remote communities in the Amazon, yet sources of lead exposure are not fully understood, such as lead ammunition consumed in wild game. Methods: Data was collected during two cross-sectional studies that enrolled 307 individuals in 26 communities. Regression models with community random effects were used to evaluate risk factors for BLLs, including diet, water source, smoking, sex, age, and indigenous status. The All-Ages Lead Model (AALM) from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was used to estimate background and dose from wild game consumption. Findings: Indigenous status and wild game consumption were associated with increased BLLs. Indigenous participants had 2.52 µg/dL (95% CI: 1.95-3.24) higher BLLs compared to non-indigenous. Eating wild game was associated with a 1.41 µg/dL (95% CI: 1.20-1.70) increase in BLLs. Two or more portions per serving were associated with increased BLLs of 1.66 µg/dL (95% CI: 1.10-2.57), compared to smaller servings. Using the AALM, we estimate background lead exposures to be 20 µg/day with consumption of wild game contributing 500 µg/meal. Lastly, we found a strong association between BLLs and mercury exposure. Interpretation: Consumption of wild game hunted with lead ammunition may pose a common source of lead exposure in the Amazon. Communities that rely on wild game and wild fish may face a dual burden of exposure to lead and mercury, respectively.

15.
PLoS One ; 17(9): e0275247, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36166462

ABSTRACT

The pork tapeworm, Taenia solium, is the cause of a preventable zoonotic disease, cysticercosis, affecting both pigs and humans. Continued endemic transmission of T. solium is a major contributor of epilepsy and other neurologic morbidity, and the source of important economic losses, in many rural areas of developing countries. Simulation modelling can play an important role in aiding the design and evaluation of strategies to control or even eliminate transmission of the parasite. In this paper, we present a new agent based model of local-scale T. solium transmission and a new, non-local, approach to the model calibration to fit model outputs to observed human taeniasis and pig cysticercosis prevalence simultaneously for several endemic villages. The model fully describes all relevant aspects of T. solium transmission, including the processes of pig and human infection, the spatial distribution of human and pig populations, the production of pork for human consumption, and the movement of humans and pigs in and out in several endemic villages of the northwest of Peru. Despite the high level of uncertainty associated with the empirical measurements of epidemiological data associated with T. solium, the non-local calibrated model parametrization reproduces the observed prevalences with an acceptable precision. It does so not only for the villages used to calibrate the model, but also for villages not included in the calibration process. This important finding demonstrates that the model, including its calibrated parametrization, can be successfully transferred within an endemic region. This will enable future studies to inform the design and optimization of T. solium control interventions in villages where the calibration may be prevented by the limited amount of empirical data, expanding the possible applications to a wider range of settings compared to previous models.


Subject(s)
Cysticercosis , Swine Diseases , Taenia solium , Taeniasis , Animals , Cysticercosis/epidemiology , Cysticercosis/prevention & control , Cysticercosis/veterinary , Humans , Peru/epidemiology , Swine , Swine Diseases/epidemiology , Taeniasis/epidemiology , Taeniasis/prevention & control , Taeniasis/veterinary
16.
Sci Adv ; 8(39): eabq3917, 2022 Sep 30.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36170357

ABSTRACT

In additive manufacturing, it is imperative to increase print speeds, use higher-viscosity resins, and print with multiple different resins simultaneously. To this end, we introduce a previously unexplored ultraviolet-based photopolymerization three-dimensional printing process. The method exploits a continuous liquid interface-the dead zone-mechanically fed with resin at elevated pressures through microfluidic channels dynamically created and integral to the growing part. Through this mass transport control, injection continuous liquid interface production, or iCLIP, can accelerate printing speeds to 5- to 10-fold over current methods such as CLIP, can use resins an order of magnitude more viscous than CLIP, and can readily pattern a single heterogeneous object with different resins in all Cartesian coordinates. We characterize the process parameters governing iCLIP and demonstrate use cases for rapidly printing carbon nanotube-filled composites, multimaterial features with length scales spanning several orders of magnitude, and lattices with tunable moduli and energy absorption.

17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35627872

ABSTRACT

Deforestation, artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM), and the rapid development related to highway expansion cause opportunities for toxic trace element exposure in the Amazon region of Madre de Dios (MDD), Peru, one of the most biologically diverse places in the world. The objective of this study was to assess the exposure to arsenic, cadmium, lead, and mercury among adults in Madre de Dios. In total, 418 adult (18+ years) participants in the Investigacion de Migracion, Ambiente, y Salud (IMAS) (Migration, Environment, and Health Study) participated in this study. Consent, survey data, and biospecimens were collected between August and November 2014. Nail elements were measured by inductively coupled plasma sector field mass spectrometry. Differences by selected individual and household characteristics and local land uses were tested using one-way ANOVAs and linear mixed models. Adults in ASGM-affected areas had higher nail arsenic and nail cadmium than their non-ASGM counterparts. Higher household fish consumption was positively associated with nail mercury and nail lead. The results indicate that adult exposure to arsenic, cadmium, lead, and mercury is heterogeneous across Madre de Dios, and the exposures related to ASGM communities and fish consumption suggest that exposures from artisanal and small-scale mining are environmentally widespread. Further investigation is warranted to ascertain potential health impacts.


Subject(s)
Arsenic , Mercury , Trace Elements , Animals , Arsenic/analysis , Cadmium/analysis , Fishes , Gold/analysis , Humans , Mercury/analysis , Nails/chemistry , Peru , Trace Elements/analysis
18.
PLoS Comput Biol ; 18(5): e1010118, 2022 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35587497

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: The Taenia solium tapeworm is responsible for cysticercosis, a neglected tropical disease presenting as larvae in the body of a host following taenia egg ingestion. Neurocysticercosis (NCC), the name of the disease when it affects the human central nervous system, is a major cause of epilepsy in developing countries, and can also cause intracranial hypertension, hydrocephalus and death. Simulation models can help identify the most cost-effective interventions before their implementation. Modelling NCC should enable the comparison of a broad range of interventions, from treatment of human taeniasis (presence of an adult taenia worm in the human intestine) to NCC mitigation. It also allows a focus on the actual impact of the disease, rather than using proxies as is the case for other models. METHODS: This agent-based model is the first model that simulates human NCC and associated pathologies. It uses the output of another model, CystiAgent, which simulates the evolution of pig cysticercosis and human taeniasis, adding human and cyst agents, including a model of cyst location and stage, human symptoms, and treatment. CystiHuman also accounts for delays in the appearance of NCC-related symptoms. It comprises three modules detailing cyst development, seizure probability and timing, and intracranial hypertension/hydrocephalus, respectively. It has been implemented in Java MASON and calibrated in three endemic villages in Peru, then applied to another village (Rica Playa) to compare simulation results with field data in that village. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Despite limitations in available field data, parameter values found through calibration are plausible and simulated outcomes in Rica Playa are close to actual values for NCC prevalence and the way it increases with age and cases with single lesions. Initial simulations further suggest that short-term interventions followed by a rapid increase in taeniasis prevalence back to original levels may have limited impacts on NCC prevalence.


Subject(s)
Cysticercosis , Cysts , Hydrocephalus , Intracranial Hypertension , Neurocysticercosis , Taeniasis , Animals , Cysticercosis/diagnosis , Cysticercosis/epidemiology , Humans , Neurocysticercosis/diagnosis , Neurocysticercosis/epidemiology , Swine , Taeniasis/diagnosis , Taeniasis/epidemiology
19.
Urology ; 164: 112-117, 2022 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35276202

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To characterize appointment access for Medicaid-insured patients seeking care at urology practices affiliated with private equity firms in light of the recent national trends in practice consolidation. METHODS: We identified 214 urology offices affiliated with private equity firms that were geographically matched with 231 non-private equity affiliated urology offices. Using a standardized script, researchers posed as an adult patient with either Medicaid or commercial insurance in the clinical setting of new onset, painless hematuria. The primary outcome was whether the patient's insurance was accepted for an appointment. The secondary outcome was appointment wait time. RESULTS: We conducted 815 appointment inquiry calls to 214 private equity (PE) and 231 non-PE-affiliated urology offices across 12 states. Appointment availability was higher for commercially-insured patients (99.0%; 95% CI: 98.1%-99.9%) vs Medicaid-insured patients (59.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 55.0%-64.6%) (P < .0001). Medicaid acceptance was higher at non-PE affiliated (66.8%; CI 60.4%-73.2%) than PE-affiliated practices (52.1%; 95% CI 45.0%-59.2%) (P = .003). On multivariable logistic regression analysis, state Medicaid expansion status (odds ratio [OR] 2.20; CI 1.14-4.28; P = .020) was independently associated with Medicaid appointment availability, whereas PE-affiliation (OR 0.55; CI 0.37-0.83; P = .004) was independently associated with lower Medicaid access. Appointment wait times did not differ significantly for commercially-insured vs Medicaid patients (19.2 vs 20.1 days; p = .59), but PE-affiliated practices offered shorter mean wait times than non-PE offices (17.5 vs 21.4 days; P = .017). CONCLUSION: Access disparities for urologic evaluation in patients with Medicaid insurance at urology practices and were more pronounced at private equity acquired practices.


Subject(s)
Medicaid , Urology , Adult , Health Services Accessibility , Humans , Insurance Coverage , Insurance, Health , United States
20.
Nat Commun ; 13(1): 559, 2022 01 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35091543

ABSTRACT

Mercury emissions from artisanal and small-scale gold mining throughout the Global South exceed coal combustion as the largest global source of mercury. We examined mercury deposition and storage in an area of the Peruvian Amazon heavily impacted by artisanal gold mining. Intact forests in the Peruvian Amazon near gold mining receive extremely high inputs of mercury and experience elevated total mercury and methylmercury in the atmosphere, canopy foliage, and soils. Here we show for the first time that an intact forest canopy near artisanal gold mining intercepts large amounts of particulate and gaseous mercury, at a rate proportional with total leaf area. We document substantial mercury accumulation in soils, biomass, and resident songbirds in some of the Amazon's most protected and biodiverse areas, raising important questions about how mercury pollution may constrain modern and future conservation efforts in these tropical ecosystems.


Subject(s)
Atmosphere/analysis , Environmental Pollutants/analysis , Gold , Mercury/analysis , Mining , Rainforest , Animals , Atmosphere/chemistry , Birds/classification , Birds/metabolism , Environmental Monitoring/methods , Environmental Pollution/analysis , Feathers/chemistry , Gases/analysis , Geography , Peru , Plant Leaves/chemistry , Plant Leaves/metabolism , Soil/chemistry , Soil Pollutants/analysis , Soil Pollutants/metabolism
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