ABSTRACT
To explore the effects of climate change on malaria and 20 neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), and potential effect amelioration through mitigation and adaptation, we searched for papers published from January 2010 to October 2023. We descriptively synthesised extracted data. We analysed numbers of papers meeting our inclusion criteria by country and national disease burden, healthcare access and quality index (HAQI), as well as by climate vulnerability score. From 42 693 retrieved records, 1543 full-text papers were assessed. Of 511 papers meeting the inclusion criteria, 185 studied malaria, 181 dengue and chikungunya and 53 leishmaniasis; other NTDs were relatively understudied. Mitigation was considered in 174 papers (34%) and adaption strategies in 24 (5%). Amplitude and direction of effects of climate change on malaria and NTDs are likely to vary by disease and location, be non-linear and evolve over time. Available analyses do not allow confident prediction of the overall global impact of climate change on these diseases. For dengue and chikungunya and the group of non-vector-borne NTDs, the literature privileged consideration of current low-burden countries with a high HAQI. No leishmaniasis papers considered outcomes in East Africa. Comprehensive, collaborative and standardised modelling efforts are needed to better understand how climate change will directly and indirectly affect malaria and NTDs.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Even moderate differences in rotavirus vaccine effectiveness against non-vaccine genotypes may exert selective pressures on circulating rotaviruses. Whether this vaccine effect or natural temporal fluctuations underlie observed changes in genotype distributions is unclear. METHODS: We systematically reviewed studies reporting rotavirus genotypes from children <5 years of age globally between 2005 and 2023. We compared rotavirus genotypes between vaccine-introducing and non-introducing settings globally and by World Health Organization (WHO) region, calendar time, and time since vaccine introduction. RESULTS: Crude pooling of genotype data from 361 studies indicated higher G2P[4], a non-vaccine genotype, prevalence in vaccine-introducing settings, both globally and by WHO region. This difference did not emerge when examining genotypes over time in the Americas, the only region with robust longitudinal data. Relative to non-introducing settings, G2P[4] detections were more likely in settings with recent introduction (e.g. 1-2 years post-introduction aOR: 4.39 (95% CI: 2.87-6.72)) but were similarly likely in settings with more time elapsed since introduction, (e.g. 7 or more years aOR (1.62 95% CI: 0.49-5.37)). CONCLUSIONS: When accounting for both regional and temporal trends, there was no substantial evidence of long-term vaccine-related selective pressures on circulating genotypes. Increased prevalence of G2P[4] may be transient after rotavirus vaccine introduction.
ABSTRACT
Before the introduction of vaccines, group A rotaviruses (RVA) were the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis in children worldwide. The National Rotavirus Strain Surveillance System (NRSSS) was established in 1996 by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to perform passive RVA surveillance in the USA. We report the distribution of RVA genotypes collected through NRSSS during the 2009-2016 RVA seasons and retrospectively examine the genotypes detected through the NRSSS since 1996. During the 2009-2016 RVA seasons, 2134 RVA-positive fecal specimens were sent to the CDC for analysis of the VP7 and VP4 genes by RT-PCR genotyping assays and sequencing. During 2009-2011, RVA genotype G3P[8] dominated, while G12P[8] was the dominant genotype during 2012-2016. Vaccine strains were detected in 1.7% of specimens and uncommon/unusual strains, including equine-like G3P[8] strains, were found in 1.9%. Phylogenetic analyses showed limited VP7 and VP4 sequence variation within the common genotypes with 1-3 alleles/lineages identified per genotype. A review of 20 years of NRSSS surveillance showed two changes in genotype dominance, from G1P[8] to G3P[8] and then G3P[8] to G12P[8]. A better understanding of the long-term effects of vaccine use on epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of circulating RVA strains requires continued surveillance.
