ABSTRACT
ObjectivTo explore the link between COVID-19 incidence, socio-economic covariates, and NHL incidence. DesignEcological study design. SettingSardinia, Italy. ParticipantsWe used official reports on the total cases of COVID-19 in 2020, published data on NHL incidence, and socio-economic indicators by administrative unit, covering the whole regional population. Main outcomes and measuresWe used multivariable regression analysis to explore the association between the natural logarithm (ln) of the 2020 cumulative incidence of COVID-19 and the ln-transformed NHL incidence in 1974-2003, weighing by population size and adjusting by socioeconomic deprivation and other covariates. ResultsThe cumulative incidence of COVID-19 increased in relation to past incidence of NHL (p < 0.001), socioeconomic deprivation (p = 0.006), and proportion of elderly residents (p < 0.001) and decreased with urban residency (p = 0.001). Several sensitivity analyses confirmed the finding of an association between COVID-19 and NHL. ConclusionThis ecological study found an ecological association between NHL and COVID-19. If further investigation would confirm our findings, shared susceptibility factors should be investigated among the plausible underlying mechanisms. Strengths and limitations of this studyO_LIThis study exploited the availability of incidence data for non-Hodgkins lymphoma over a 30-year time frame and the 2020 cumulative incidence data for COVID-19 available for all administrative units in the Sardinia region, Italy. C_LIO_LIUsing an ecological study design, we observed that COVID-19 occurrence increased with past incidence of non-Hodgkins lymphoma. C_LIO_LILimitations of the ecological study design require further investigation for confirmation and for identification of susceptibility factors possibly shared between the two diseases. C_LI
ABSTRACT
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on excess mortality from all causes in 2020 varied across and within European countries. Using data for 2015-2019, we applied Bayesian spatio-temporal models to quantify the expected weekly deaths at the regional level had the pandemic not occurred in England, Greece, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland. With around 30%, Madrid, Castile-La Mancha, Castile-Leon (Spain) and Lombardia (Italy) were the regions with the highest excess mortality. In England, Greece and Switzerland, the regions most affected were Outer London and the West Midlands (England), Eastern, Western and Central Macedonia (Greece), and Ticino (Switzerland), with 15-20% excess mortality in 2020. Our study highlights the importance of the large transportation hubs for establishing community transmission in the first stages of the pandemic. Acting promptly to limit transmission around these hubs is essential to prevent spread to other regions and countries.
ABSTRACT
Serology-based tests have become a key public health element in the COVID-19 pandemic to assess the degree of herd immunity that has been achieved in the population. These tests differ between one another in several ways. Here, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the diagnostic accuracy of currently available SARS-CoV-2 serological tests, and assessed their real-world performance under scenarios of varying proportion of infected individuals. We included independent studies that specified the antigen used for antibody detection and used quantitative methods. We identified nine independent studies, of which six were based on commercial ELISA or CMIA/CLIA assays, and three on in-house tests. Test sensitivity ranged from 68% to 93% for IgM, from 65% to 100% for IgG, and from 83% to 98% for total antibodies. Random-effects models yielded a summary sensitivity of 82% (95%CI 75-88%) for IgM, and 85% for both IgG (95%CI 73-93%) and total antibodies (95%CI 74-94%). Specificity was very high for most tests, and its pooled estimate was 98% (95%CI 92-100%) for IgM and 99% (95%CI 98-100%) for both IgG and total antibodies. The heterogeneity of sensitivity and specificity across tests was generally high (I2>50%). In populations with a low prevalence ([≤]5%) of seroconverted individuals, the positive predictive value would be [≤]88% for most assays, except those reporting perfect specificity. Our data suggest that the use of serological tests for large-scale prevalence surveys (or to grant "immunity passports") are currently only justified in hard-hit regions, while they should be used with caution elsewhere.
ABSTRACT
Humans are exposed to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons PAHs from various occupational, dietary, environmental and medicinal sources. We measured 1 hydroxypyrene glucuronide 1 OHP gluc concentration in urines from male non smokers n = 50, smokers of blond tobacco n = 31, smokers of black tobacco n = 16, and pipe smokers n = 3 . Immunoaffinity chromatography was used as a preparative step and synchronous fluorescence spectroscopy as the quantitation method. The concentration of 1 OHP gluc in urine from smokers mean SE: 1.04 0.13 pmol ml-1 urine was significantly higher than in urine from non smokers 0.55 0.05 pmol ml-1 urine by the Wilcoxon rank sum test non smokers versus all smokers, p = 0.001; vs black tobacco smokers, p = 0.001; vs blond tobacco smokers, p = 0.007 . Urinary 1 OHP gluc concentration among subjects who had consumed roasted, grilled or broiled meat within the past 24 h was elevated compared with those who had not p = 0.025 . Multiple linear regression showed significant associations of urinary 1 OHP gluc with number of cigarettes smoked p = 0.002 and consumption of roasted, grilled or broiled meat p = 0.028 . Systemic CYP1A2 activity estimated by caffeine metabolism was significantly correlated with urinary 1 OHP gluc concentration. However, this association was probably due to cigarette smoking, since adjusting for cigarette smoking by multiple linear regression made the association between urinary 1 OHP gluc and CYP1A2 phenotype non significant. These results further support the use of urinary 1 OHP gluc as a biomarker of recent pyrene exposure through inhalation or diet.
