Quantile connectedness in agri-commodity markets: What has changed over past six decades?

Agri commodities have been investigated in the past to determine their inter-relationships. However, no study has checked their risk spillover/connectedness for six decades using extreme quantiles. Various shocks (positive/negative) often pose challenges to these commodities over the past six decades. Such shocks' impact is usually observed in extreme quantiles or tails. Therefore, we have investigated fourteen agri commodities (namely Coffee, Cocoa, Soyabean, Wheat, Sugar, Orange, Chicken, Beef, Maize, Tea, Coconut Oil, Groundnut Oil, Palm Oil & Rice) from January 1, 1960 to June 1, 2022 (covering 62 years on a monthly basis), deploying Quantile VAR or QVAR as suggested by [1](extended [2,3] calibration). We found that the risk spillover/connectedness never came down for these Agri commodities. It is always at a higher level (more than 55%) proving that agri commodities remain vulnerable to various shocks throughout. Spillover looks symmetric as both the extreme tails enjoy about 92-93% connectedness levels, whereas the median is below 60%. Rice, Orange Juice, Chicken, Tea and Groundnut Oil were consistent net receivers across such a long-time frame, whereas Palm Oil, Soyabeans, Maize and Wheat were net emitters all through. Further, we found decreasing complexity (network connectedness reduction) with increased quantiles. Since these findings are over such an extended period, policy decisions can be made based on them.

Disaggregated energy use and socioeconomic sustainability within OECD countries.

This study investigates the relationship between disaggregated energy use, human development, trade openness, economic growth, urbanization, and sustainability index in OECD countries from 2014 to 2019. Static, quantile, and dynamic panel data approaches are employed. The findings reveal that fossil fuels such as petroleum, solid fuels, natural gas, and coal decrease sustainability. On the contrary, alternative sources such as renewable and nuclear energy seem to contribute positively to sustainable socioeconomic development. It is also interesting to note that alternative energy sources strongly influence socioeconomic sustainability in the lower and upper quantiles. Also, the human development index and trade openness improve sustainability, while urbanization seems to be an obstacle in complying with sustainability goals within OECD countries. Policymakers should revisit their strategies toward sustainable development by mitigating fossil fuels and urbanization and promoting human development, trade openness, and alternative energy sources as drivers of economic progress.