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1.
Glob Chang Biol ; 30(6): e17363, 2024 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38864471

ABSTRACT

Recently burned boreal forests have lower aboveground fuel loads, generating a negative feedback to subsequent wildfires. Despite this feedback, short-interval reburns (≤20 years between fires) are possible under extreme weather conditions. Reburns have consequences for ecosystem recovery, leading to enduring vegetation change. In this study, we characterize the strength of the fire-fuel feedback in recently burned Canadian boreal forests and the weather conditions that overwhelm resistance to fire spread in recently burned areas. We used a dataset of daily fire spread for thousands of large boreal fires, interpolated from remotely sensed thermal anomalies to which we associated local weather from ERA5-Land for each day of a fire's duration. We classified days with >3 ha of fire growth as spread days and defined burned pixels overlapping a fire perimeter ≤20 years old as short-interval reburns. Results of a logistic regression showed that the odds of fire spread in recently burned areas were ~50% lower than in long-interval fires; however, all Canadian boreal ecozones experienced short-interval reburning (1981-2021), with over 100,000 ha reburning annually. As fire weather conditions intensify, the resistance to fire spread declines, allowing fire to spread in recently burned areas. The weather associated with short-interval fire spread days was more extreme than the conditions during long-interval spread, but overall differences were modest (e.g. relative humidity 2.6% lower). The frequency of fire weather conducive to short-interval fire spread has significantly increased in the western boreal forest due to climate warming and drying (1981-2021). Our results suggest an ongoing degradation of fire-fuel feedbacks, which is likely to continue with climatic warming and drying.


Subject(s)
Forests , Weather , Wildfires , Wildfires/prevention & control , Wildfires/statistics & numerical data , Climate Change , Global Warming
2.
Nat Commun ; 15(1): 2412, 2024 Mar 25.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38528012

ABSTRACT

Fire suppression is the primary management response to wildfires in many areas globally. By removing less-extreme wildfires, this approach ensures that remaining wildfires burn under more extreme conditions. Here, we term this the "suppression bias" and use a simulation model to highlight how this bias fundamentally impacts wildfire activity, independent of fuel accumulation and climate change. We illustrate how attempting to suppress all wildfires necessarily means that fires will burn with more severe and less diverse ecological impacts, with burned area increasing at faster rates than expected from fuel accumulation or climate change. Over a human lifespan, the modeled impacts of the suppression bias exceed those from fuel accumulation or climate change alone, suggesting that suppression may exert a significant and underappreciated influence on patterns of fire globally. Managing wildfires to safely burn under low and moderate conditions is thus a critical tool to address the growing wildfire crisis.

3.
Circ Cardiovasc Imaging ; 17(1): e015858, 2024 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38227694

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Advanced chronic kidney disease is associated with high cardiovascular risk, even after kidney transplant. Pretransplant cardiac testing may identify patients who require additional assessment before transplant or would benefit from risk optimization. The objective of the current study was to determine the relative prognostic utility of pretransplant positron emission tomography (PET) and single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) for posttransplant major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs). METHODS: We retrospectively followed patients who underwent MPI before kidney transplant for the occurrence of MACE after transplant including myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure, and cardiac death. An abnormal MPI result was defined as a total perfusion deficit >5% of the myocardium. To determine associations of MPI results with MACE, we utilized Cox hazard regression with propensity weighting for PET versus SPECT with model factors, including demographics and cardiovascular risk factors. RESULTS: A total of 393 patients underwent MPI (208 PET and 185 SPECT) and were followed for a median of 5.9 years post-transplant. Most were male (58%), median age was 58 years, and there was a high burden of hypertension (88%) and diabetes (33%). A minority had abnormal MPI (n=58, 15%). In propensity-weighted hazard regression, abnormal PET result was associated with posttransplant MACE (hazard ratio, 3.02 [95% CI, 1.78-5.11]; P<0.001), while there was insufficient evidence of an association of abnormal SPECT result with MACE (1.39 [95% CI, 0.72-2.66]; P=0.33). The explained relative risk of the PET result was higher than the SPECT result (R2 0.086 versus 0.007). Normal PET was associated with the lowest risk of MACE (2.2%/year versus 3.6%/year for normal SPECT; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Kidney transplant recipients are at high cardiovascular risk, despite a minority having obstructive coronary artery disease on MPI. PET MPI findings predict posttransplant MACE. Normal PET may better discriminate lower risk patients compared with normal SPECT, which should be confirmed in a larger prospective study.


Subject(s)
Coronary Artery Disease , Kidney Transplantation , Myocardial Perfusion Imaging , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Female , Prospective Studies , Retrospective Studies , Kidney Transplantation/adverse effects , Myocardial Perfusion Imaging/methods , Tomography, Emission-Computed, Single-Photon/methods , Positron-Emission Tomography , Prognosis
4.
J Am Heart Assoc ; : e029541, 2023 Nov 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37947105

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: HIV infection and abacavir-containing antiretroviral regimens are associated with vascular endothelial dysfunction and increased cardiovascular risk. Positron emission tomography (PET)-derived myocardial blood flow reserve (MBFR), the ratio of vasodilator stress to rest myocardial blood flow, is a well-validated measure of coronary microvascular health and marker of cardiovascular risk. Our objective was to compare MBFR among people with HIV (PWH) with matched non-HIV controls and to assess whether switching from dolutegravir/lamivudine/abacavir to the non-abacavir regimen bictegravir/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) would improve MBFR. METHODS AND RESULTS: Thirty-seven PWH were 1:2 matched on cardiovascular risk factors to 75 people without HIV, and MBFR corrected for differences in resting hemodynamics was compared in a cross-sectional design. PWH were majority men (68%) with a mean age of 56 years. Mean stress myocardial blood flow (1.83 mL/min per g [95% CI, 1.68-1.98] versus 2.40 mL/min per g [95% CI, 2.25-2.54]; P<0.001) and MBFR (2.18 [95% CI, 1.96-2.40] versus 2.68 [95% CI, 2.47-2.89]; P=0.002) was significantly lower in PWH than in people without HIV. In a single-arm, multicenter trial, a subset of 25 PWH who were virologically suppressed on dolutegravir/lamivudine/abacavir underwent positron emission tomography myocardial perfusion imaging at baseline and after switching to bictegravir/emtricitabine/TAF. MBFR was unchanged after switching to bictegravir/emtricitabine/TAF for a mean of 27 weeks (MBFR, 2.34 to 2.29; P=0.61), except in PWH with impaired MBFR at baseline (<2.00; N=6) in whom MBFR increased from 1.58 to 2.02 (P=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: PWH had reduced coronary microvascular function compared with controls without HIV. Coronary microvascular function did not improve after switching from dolutegravir/lamivudine/abacavir to bictegravir/emtricitabine/TAF. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; unique identifier: NCT03656783.

5.
Circ Cardiovasc Imaging ; 16(9): e015324, 2023 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37655498

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Given the central importance of cardiorenal interactions, mechanistic tools for evaluating cardiorenal physiology are needed. In the heart and kidneys, shared pathways of neurohormonal activation, hypertension, and vascular and interstitial fibrosis implicate the relevance of systemic vascular health. The availability of a long axial field of view positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) system enables simultaneous evaluation of cardiac and renal blood flow. METHODS: This study evaluated the feasibility of quantification of renal blood flow using data acquired during routine, clinically indicated 13N-ammonia myocardial perfusion PET/CT. Dynamic PET image data were used to calculate renal blood flow. Reproducibility was assessed by the intraclass correlation coefficient among 3 independent readers. PET-derived renal blood flow was correlated with imaging and clinical parameters in the overall cohort and with histopathology in a small companion study of patients with a native kidney biopsy. RESULTS: Among 386 consecutive patients with myocardial perfusion PET/CT, 296 (76.7%) had evaluable images to quantify renal perfusion. PET quantification of renal blood flow was highly reproducible (intraclass correlation coefficient 0.98 [95% CI, 0.93-0.99]) and was correlated with the estimated glomerular filtration rate (r=0.64; P<0.001). Compared across vascular beds, resting renal blood flow was correlated with maximal stress myocardial blood flow and myocardial flow reserve (stress/rest myocardial blood flow), an integrated marker of endothelial health. In patients with kidney biopsy (n=12), resting PET renal blood flow was strongly negatively correlated with histological interstitial fibrosis (r=-0.85; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Renal blood flow can be reliably measured from cardiac 13N-ammonia PET/CT and allows for simultaneous assessment of myocardial and renal perfusion, opening a potential novel avenue to interrogate the mechanisms of emerging therapies with overlapping cardiac and renal benefits.


Subject(s)
Ammonia , Positron Emission Tomography Computed Tomography , Humans , Feasibility Studies , Reproducibility of Results , Positron-Emission Tomography , Kidney/diagnostic imaging , Perfusion , Fibrosis
6.
Glob Chang Biol ; 29(24): 7029-7050, 2023 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37706328

ABSTRACT

Climate warming, land use change, and altered fire regimes are driving ecological transformations that can have critical effects on Earth's biota. Fire refugia-locations that are burned less frequently or severely than their surroundings-may act as sites of relative stability during this period of rapid change by being resistant to fire and supporting post-fire recovery in adjacent areas. Because of their value to forest ecosystem persistence, there is an urgent need to anticipate where refugia are most likely to be found and where they align with environmental conditions that support post-fire tree recruitment. Using biophysical predictors and patterns of burn severity from 1180 recent fire events, we mapped the locations of potential fire refugia across upland conifer forests in the southwestern United States (US) (99,428 km2 of forest area), a region that is highly vulnerable to fire-driven transformation. We found that low pre-fire forest cover, flat slopes or topographic concavities, moderate weather conditions, spring-season burning, and areas affected by low- to moderate-severity fire within the previous 15 years were most commonly associated with refugia. Based on current (i.e., 2021) conditions, we predicted that 67.6% and 18.1% of conifer forests in our study area would contain refugia under moderate and extreme fire weather, respectively. However, potential refugia were 36.4% (moderate weather) and 31.2% (extreme weather) more common across forests that experienced recent fires, supporting the increased use of prescribed and resource objective fires during moderate weather conditions to promote fire-resistant landscapes. When overlaid with models of tree recruitment, 23.2% (moderate weather) and 6.4% (extreme weather) of forests were classified as refugia with a high potential to support post-fire recruitment in the surrounding landscape. These locations may be disproportionately valuable for ecosystem sustainability, providing habitat for fire-sensitive species and maintaining forest persistence in an increasingly fire-prone world.


Subject(s)
Fires , Tracheophyta , Ecosystem , Forests , Trees , Weather
8.
Small ; 19(49): e2302401, 2023 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37559167

ABSTRACT

For the past century, trypsin has been the primary method of cell dissociation, largely without any major changes to the process. Enzymatic cell detachment strategies for large-scale cell culturing processes are popular but can be labor-intensive, potentially lead to the accumulation of genetic mutations, and produce large quantities of liquid waste. Therefore, engineering surfaces to lower cell adhesion strength could enable the next generation of cell culture surfaces for delicate primary cells and automated, high-throughput workflows. In this study, a process for creating microtextured polystyrene (PS) surfaces to measure the impact of microposts on the adhesion strength of cells is developed. Cell viability and proliferation assays show comparable results in two cancer cell lines between micropost surfaces and standard cell culture vessels. However, cell image analysis on microposts reveals that cell area decreases by half, and leads to an average twofold increase in cell length per area. Using a microfluidic-based method up to a seven times greater percentage of cells are removed from micropost surfaces than the flat control surfaces. These results show that micropost surfaces enable decreased cell adhesion strength while maintaining similar cell viabilities and proliferation as compared to flat PS surfaces.


Subject(s)
Cell Culture Techniques , Neoplasms , Cell Adhesion , Cells, Cultured , Physical Phenomena
9.
Glob Chang Biol ; 29(10): 2681-2696, 2023 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36880282

ABSTRACT

Species across the planet are shifting their ranges to track suitable climate conditions in response to climate change. Given that protected areas have higher quality habitat and often harbor higher levels of biodiversity compared to unprotected lands, it is often assumed that protected areas can serve as steppingstones for species undergoing climate-induced range shifts. However, there are several factors that may impede successful range shifts among protected areas, including the distance that must be traveled, unfavorable human land uses and climate conditions along potential movement routes, and lack of analogous climates. Through a species-agnostic lens, we evaluate these factors across the global terrestrial protected area network as measures of climate connectivity, which is defined as the ability of a landscape to facilitate or impede climate-induced movement. We found that over half of protected land area and two-thirds of the number of protected units across the globe are at risk of climate connectivity failure, casting doubt on whether many species can successfully undergo climate-induced range shifts among protected areas. Consequently, protected areas are unlikely to serve as steppingstones for a large number of species under a warming climate. As species disappear from protected areas without commensurate immigration of species suited to the emerging climate (due to climate connectivity failure), many protected areas may be left with a depauperate suite of species under climate change. Our findings are highly relevant given recent pledges to conserve 30% of the planet by 2030 (30 × 30), underscore the need for innovative land management strategies that allow for species range shifts, and suggest that assisted colonization may be necessary to promote species that are adapted to the emerging climate.


Subject(s)
Conservation of Natural Resources , Ecosystem , Humans , Biodiversity , Climate Change , Travel
10.
Cardiooncology ; 9(1): 5, 2023 Jan 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36670480

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Consensus guidelines recommend periodic screening for coronary artery disease (CAD) in Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) survivors treated with radiation therapy (RT) to the chest. However, the prognostic utility of screening strategies in this population remains unclear. We evaluated the association between functional testing, coronary artery calcifications (CAC), and guideline-based risk assessment and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in HL survivors treated with RT. METHODS: We retrospectively studied HL survivors treated with RT who underwent functional testing between 2003 and 2020 and chest computed tomography (CT) within 12 months of each other at our center. CAC was assessed semi-quantitatively from CT images. Cardiovascular risk was estimated using the 2019 ACC/AHA Guideline on the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease. Diagnostic test characteristics were calculated using major adverse cardiac events (MACE) during follow-up as the gold standard. RESULTS: The study included 159 patients (median age at functional testing 48 years, median age at HL diagnosis 27 years, 62.9% female). Abnormal functional testing had the highest specificity (94.2% (95% CI 88.4%-97.6%)) and positive likelihood ratio (4.55 (95% CI 1.86-11.13)) while CAC had the highest sensitivity (63.2% (95% CI 46.0%-78.2%)) and lowest negative likelihood ratio (0.52 (95% CI 0.34-0.80)). Specificity for ACC/AHA risk assessment was also high (88.5% (95% CI 81.1%-93.7%)). Over 3.3 years of follow-up, abnormal functional testing (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) 5.10, 95% CI 2.41 - 10.78, p < 0.001) and CAC (adjusted SHR 3.58, 95% CI 1.35 - 9.47, p = 0.010) were both significantly associated with MACE. CONCLUSIONS: In HL survivors treated with RT, both abnormal functional testing and ACC/AHA risk assessment had high specificity for subsequent MACE, but CAC had higher sensitivity. Further research is needed to inform CAD screening and primary prevention strategies in this population.

12.
J Am Heart Assoc ; 11(20): e025844, 2022 10 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36250654

ABSTRACT

Background Cardiovascular complications from COVID-19 contribute to its high morbidity and mortality. The effect of COVID-19 infection on the coronary vasculature is not known. The objective of this study was to investigate the prevalence of coronary vasomotor dysfunction identified by coronary flow reserve from cardiac positron emission tomography in patients with previous COVID-19 infection. Methods and Results All patients who had polymerase chain reaction-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection referred for myocardial stress perfusion positron emission tomography imaging at Brigham and Women's Hospital from April 2020 to July 2021 were compared with a matched control group without prior SARS-CoV-2 infection imaged in the same period. The main outcome was the prevalence of coronary vasomotor dysfunction. Myocardial perfusion and myocardial blood flow reserve were quantified using N13-ammonia positron emission tomography imaging. Thirty-four patients with prior COVID-19 were identified and compared with 103 matched controls. The median time from polymerase chain reaction-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 to cardiac positron emission tomography was 4.6 months (interquartile range,1.2-5.6 months). There were 16 out of 34 (47%) patients previously hospitalized for COVID-19 infection. Baseline cardiac risk factors were common, and 18 (53%) patients in the COVID-19 group had abnormal myocardial perfusion. Myocardial blood flow reserve was abnormal (<2) in 44.0% of the patients with COVID-19 compared with 11.7% of matched controls (P<0.001). The mean myocardial blood flow reserve was 19.4% lower in patients with COVID-19 compared with control patients (2.00±0.45 versus 2.48±0.47, P<0.001). Conclusions Myocardial blood flow reserve was impaired in patients with prior COVID-19 infection compared with cardiovascular risk factor-matched controls, suggesting a relationship between SARS-CoV-2 infection and coronary vascular health. These data highlight the need to assess long-term consequences of COVID-19 on vascular health in future prospective studies.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Cardiomyopathies , Coronary Artery Disease , Fractional Flow Reserve, Myocardial , Myocardial Perfusion Imaging , Humans , Female , Coronary Circulation/physiology , Myocardial Perfusion Imaging/methods , COVID-19/complications , COVID-19/diagnosis , Ammonia/pharmacology , SARS-CoV-2 , Tomography, X-Ray Computed , Positron-Emission Tomography/methods , Coronary Artery Disease/diagnostic imaging , Coronary Artery Disease/epidemiology
13.
Sci Rep ; 12(1): 17305, 2022 10 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36243789

ABSTRACT

Parental religious beliefs and practices (religiosity) may have profound effects on youth, especially in neurodevelopmentally complex periods such as adolescence. In n = 5566 children (median age = 120.0 months; 52.1% females; 71.2% with religious affiliation) from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development study, relationships between parental religiosity and non-religious beliefs on family values (data on youth beliefs were not available), topological properties of youth resting-state brain networks, and executive function, inhibitory control, and cognitive flexibility were investigated. Lower caregiver education and family income were associated with stronger parental beliefs (p < 0.01). Strength of both belief types was correlated with lower efficiency, community structure, and robustness of frontoparietal control, temporoparietal, and dorsal attention networks (p < 0.05), and lower Matrix Reasoning scores. Stronger religious beliefs were negatively associated (directly and indirectly) with multiscale properties of salience and default-mode networks, and lower Flanker and Dimensional Card Sort scores, but positively associated with properties of the precuneus. Overall, these effects were small (Cohen's d ~ 0.2 to ~ 0.4). Overlapping neuromodulatory and cognitive effects of parental beliefs suggest that early adolescents may perceive religious beliefs partly as context-independent rules on expected behavior. However, religious beliefs may also differentially affect cognitive flexibility, attention, and inhibitory control and their neural substrates.


Subject(s)
Adolescent Behavior , Religion , Adolescent , Adolescent Behavior/psychology , Brain , Child , Cognition , Female , Humans , Male , Parents
14.
Annu Int Conf IEEE Eng Med Biol Soc ; 2021: 3133-3136, 2021 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34891905

ABSTRACT

Ongoing large-scale human brain studies are generating complex neuroimaging data from thousands of individuals that can be leveraged to derive data-driven, anatomically accurate brain parcellations. However, despite their promise and many strengths, these data are highly heterogeneous, a characteristic that may affect the anatomical accuracy and generalization of the template but has received relatively little attention. Using multiple similarity measures and thresholding approaches, this study investigated the topological intra- and inter-individual variability of restingstate (rs) functional edge maps (often used for brain parcellation), estimated from rs-fMRI connectivity in n = 5878 children from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) study. Findings from this initial investigation indicate that choosing a subject- vs cohort-based threshold for estimating edge maps from connectivity matrices does not significantly impact the map topology. In contrast, the choice of similarity measure and non-linear relationship between similarity and edge map sparsity may have a significant impact on map classification and the generation of parcellation atlases. Multi-level classification revealed multiple clusters with a potentially complex mapping onto biological variables beyond simple demographics.Clinical Relevance- Case-control neuroimaging studies should use domain-specific (e.g., demographics-specific) atlases for parcellating the brain, to improve accuracy and rigor of cohort comparisons. To be generalizable, such atlases need to be derived from large datasets, which are inherently heterogeneous. In a cohort of 5878 children (age ~9-10 years), this study systematically assessed the impact of heterogeneity and similarity of edge maps, which are derived from rs-fMRI connectivity and typically used to generate parcellation atlases.


Subject(s)
Big Data , Magnetic Resonance Imaging , Adolescent , Brain/diagnostic imaging , Child , Humans , Image Processing, Computer-Assisted , Neuroimaging
15.
Ecol Appl ; 31(8): e02433, 2021 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34339088

ABSTRACT

We review science-based adaptation strategies for western North American (wNA) forests that include restoring active fire regimes and fostering resilient structure and composition of forested landscapes. As part of the review, we address common questions associated with climate adaptation and realignment treatments that run counter to a broad consensus in the literature. These include the following: (1) Are the effects of fire exclusion overstated? If so, are treatments unwarranted and even counterproductive? (2) Is forest thinning alone sufficient to mitigate wildfire hazard? (3) Can forest thinning and prescribed burning solve the problem? (4) Should active forest management, including forest thinning, be concentrated in the wildland urban interface (WUI)? (5) Can wildfires on their own do the work of fuel treatments? (6) Is the primary objective of fuel reduction treatments to assist in future firefighting response and containment? (7) Do fuel treatments work under extreme fire weather? (8) Is the scale of the problem too great? Can we ever catch up? (9) Will planting more trees mitigate climate change in wNA forests? And (10) is post-fire management needed or even ecologically justified? Based on our review of the scientific evidence, a range of proactive management actions are justified and necessary to keep pace with changing climatic and wildfire regimes and declining forest heterogeneity after severe wildfires. Science-based adaptation options include the use of managed wildfire, prescribed burning, and coupled mechanical thinning and prescribed burning as is consistent with land management allocations and forest conditions. Although some current models of fire management in wNA are averse to short-term risks and uncertainties, the long-term environmental, social, and cultural consequences of wildfire management primarily grounded in fire suppression are well documented, highlighting an urgency to invest in intentional forest management and restoration of active fire regimes.


Subject(s)
Fires , Wildfires , Climate Change , Forests , North America
16.
Cereb Cortex ; 31(10): 4840-4852, 2021 08 26.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33987673

ABSTRACT

Adolescence is a period of profound but incompletely understood changes in the brain's neural circuitry (the connectome), which is vulnerable to risk factors such as unhealthy weight, but may be protected by positive factors such as regular physical activity. In 5955 children (median age = 120 months; 50.86% females) from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) cohort, we investigated direct and indirect (through impact on body mass index [BMI]) effects of physical activity on resting-state networks, the backbone of the functional connectome that ubiquitously affects cognitive function. We estimated significant positive effects of regular physical activity on network connectivity, efficiency, robustness and stability (P ≤ 0.01), and on local topologies of attention, somatomotor, frontoparietal, limbic, and default-mode networks (P < 0.05), which support extensive processes, from memory and executive control to emotional processing. In contrast, we estimated widespread negative BMI effects in the same network properties and brain regions (P < 0.05). Additional mediation analyses suggested that physical activity could also modulate network topologies leading to better control of food intake, appetite and satiety, and ultimately lower BMI. Thus, regular physical activity may have extensive positive effects on the development of the functional connectome, and may be critical for improving the detrimental effects of unhealthy weight on cognitive health.


Subject(s)
Adolescent Development/physiology , Connectome , Exercise , Adolescent , Attention/physiology , Body Mass Index , Body Weight/physiology , Child , Cognition , Default Mode Network , Emotions/physiology , Executive Function , Female , Humans , Magnetic Resonance Imaging , Male , Memory , Nerve Net/growth & development , Nerve Net/physiology
17.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 117(47): 29730-29737, 2020 11 24.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33168732

ABSTRACT

Researchers are increasingly examining patterns and drivers of postfire forest recovery amid growing concern that climate change and intensifying fires will trigger ecosystem transformations. Diminished seed availability and postfire drought have emerged as key constraints on conifer recruitment. However, the spatial and temporal extent to which recurring modes of climatic variability shape patterns of postfire recovery remain largely unexplored. Here, we identify a north-south dipole in annual climatic moisture deficit anomalies across the Interior West of the US and characterize its influence on forest recovery from fire. We use annually resolved establishment models from dendrochronological records to correlate this climatic dipole with short-term postfire juvenile recruitment. We also examine longer-term recovery trajectories using Forest Inventory and Analysis data from 989 burned plots. We show that annual postfire ponderosa pine recruitment probabilities in the northern Rocky Mountains (NR) and the southwestern US (SW) track the strength of the dipole, while declining overall due to increasing aridity. This indicates that divergent recovery trajectories may be triggered concurrently across large spatial scales: favorable conditions in the SW can correspond to drought in the NR that inhibits ponderosa pine establishment, and vice versa. The imprint of this climatic dipole is manifest for years postfire, as evidenced by dampened long-term likelihoods of juvenile ponderosa pine presence in areas that experienced postfire drought. These findings underscore the importance of climatic variability at multiple spatiotemporal scales in driving cross-regional patterns of forest recovery and have implications for understanding ecosystem transformations and species range dynamics under global change.


Subject(s)
Climate Change , Ecological Parameter Monitoring/statistics & numerical data , Forests , Wildfires , Droughts , Hot Temperature/adverse effects , Models, Statistical , Pinus ponderosa , Plant Dispersal , Spatio-Temporal Analysis , United States
18.
Bioscience ; 70(8): 659-673, 2020 Aug 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32821066

ABSTRACT

Changing disturbance regimes and climate can overcome forest ecosystem resilience. Following high-severity fire, forest recovery may be compromised by lack of tree seed sources, warmer and drier postfire climate, or short-interval reburning. A potential outcome of the loss of resilience is the conversion of the prefire forest to a different forest type or nonforest vegetation. Conversion implies major, extensive, and enduring changes in dominant species, life forms, or functions, with impacts on ecosystem services. In the present article, we synthesize a growing body of evidence of fire-driven conversion and our understanding of its causes across western North America. We assess our capacity to predict conversion and highlight important uncertainties. Increasing forest vulnerability to changing fire activity and climate compels shifts in management approaches, and we propose key themes for applied research coproduced by scientists and managers to support decision-making in an era when the prefire forest may not return.

19.
Nat Commun ; 11(1): 3855, 2020 07 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32724035

ABSTRACT

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

20.
Nat Commun ; 11(1): 2121, 2020 05 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32358496

ABSTRACT

The top priority of fire management agencies in Canada is to protect human life and property. Here we investigate if decades of aggressive fire suppression in the boreal biome of Canada has reduced the proportion of recently burned forests (RBF; <30 years) near human communities, and thereby inadvertently increased the risk of wildfire. We measured the percentage of RBF, which are usually less flammable than older forests, up to a 25-km radius around communities compared to that in the surrounding regional fire regime zone. Our analysis of 160 communities across boreal Canada shows that 54.4% exhibited a deficit or lack of RBF, whereas only 15.0% showed a surplus. Overall, a majority (74.4%) of communities are surrounded by a low (≤10%) proportion of RBF, indicating a higher vulnerability of those communities to wildfire. These findings suggest that suppression policies are increasing flammability in the wildland-urban interface of boreal Canada.

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