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2.
PLoS One ; 17(7): e0270789, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35816497

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: India has experienced the second largest outbreak of COVID-19 globally, yet there is a paucity of studies analysing contact tracing data in the region which can optimise public health interventions (PHI's). METHODS: We analysed contact tracing data from Karnataka, India between 9 March and 21 July 2020. We estimated metrics of transmission including the reproduction number (R), overdispersion (k), secondary attack rate (SAR), and serial interval. R and k were jointly estimated using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach. We studied determinants of risk of further transmission and risk of being symptomatic using Poisson regression models. FINDINGS: Up to 21 July 2020, we found 111 index cases that crossed the super-spreading threshold of ≥8 secondary cases. Among 956 confirmed traced cases, 8.7% of index cases had 14.4% of contacts but caused 80% of all secondary cases. Among 16715 contacts, overall SAR was 3.6% [95% CI, 3.4-3.9] and symptomatic cases were more infectious than asymptomatic cases (SAR 7.7% vs 2.0%; aRR 3.63 [3.04-4.34]). As compared to infectors aged 19-44 years, children were less infectious (aRR 0.21 [0.07-0.66] for 0-5 years and 0.47 [0.32-0.68] for 6-18 years). Infectors who were confirmed ≥4 days after symptom onset were associated with higher infectiousness (aRR 3.01 [2.11-4.31]). As compared to asymptomatic cases, symptomatic cases were 8.16 [3.29-20.24] times more likely to cause symptomatic infection in their secondary cases. Serial interval had a mean of 5.4 [4.4-6.4] days, and case fatality rate was 2.5% [2.4-2.7] which increased with age. CONCLUSION: We found significant heterogeneity in the individual-level transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 which could not be explained by the degree of heterogeneity in the underlying number of contacts. To strengthen contact tracing in over-dispersed outbreaks, testing and tracing delays should be minimised and retrospective contact tracing should be implemented. Targeted measures to reduce potential superspreading events should be implemented. Interventions aimed at children might have a relatively small impact on reducing transmission owing to their low symptomaticity and infectivity. We propose that symptomatic cases could cause a snowballing effect on clinical severity and infectiousness across transmission generations; further studies are needed to confirm this finding.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Contact Tracing , Bayes Theorem , COVID-19/epidemiology , Child , Humans , India/epidemiology , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2
3.
Vis Comput Ind Biomed Art ; 4(1): 18, 2021 Jun 21.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34151397

ABSTRACT

Although the education sector is improving more quickly than ever with the help of advancing technologies, there are still many areas yet to be discovered, and there will always be room for further enhancements. Two of the most disruptive technologies, machine learning (ML) and blockchain, have helped replace conventional approaches used in the education sector with highly technical and effective methods. In this study, a system is proposed that combines these two radiant technologies and helps resolve problems such as forgeries of educational records and fake degrees. The idea here is that if these technologies can be merged and a system can be developed that uses blockchain to store student data and ML to accurately predict the future job roles for students after graduation, the problems of further counterfeiting and insecurity in the student achievements can be avoided. Further, ML models will be used to train and predict valid data. This system will provide the university with an official decentralized database of student records who have graduated from there. In addition, this system provides employers with a platform where the educational records of the employees can be verified. Students can share their educational information in their e-portfolios on platforms such as LinkedIn, which is a platform for managing professional profiles. This allows students, companies, and other industries to find approval for student data more easily.

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