Modeling the Cost of Vaccinating a Measles Zero-Dose Child in Zambia Using Three Vaccination Strategies.

Countries with moderate to high measles-containing vaccine coverage face challenges in reaching the remaining measles zero-dose children. There is growing interest in targeted vaccination activities to reach these children. We developed a framework for prioritizing districts for targeted measles and rubella supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) for Zambia in 2020, incorporating the use of the WHO's Measles Risk Assessment Tool (MRAT) and serosurveys. This framework was used to build a model comparing the cost of vaccinating one zero-dose child under three vaccination scenarios: standard nationwide SIA, targeted subnational SIA informed by MRAT, and targeted subnational SIA informed by both MRAT and measles seroprevalence data. In the last scenario, measles seroprevalence data are acquired via either a community-based serosurvey, residual blood samples from health facilities, or community-based IgG point-of-contact rapid diagnostic testing. The deterministic model found that the standard nationwide SIA is the least cost-efficient strategy at 13.75 USD per zero-dose child vaccinated. Targeted SIA informed by MRAT was the most cost-efficient at 7.63 USD per zero-dose child, assuming that routine immunization is just as effective as subnational SIA in reaching zero-dose children. Under similar conditions, a targeted subnational SIA informed by both MRAT and seroprevalence data resulted in 8.17-8.35 USD per zero-dose child vaccinated, suggesting that use of seroprevalence to inform SIA planning may not be as cost prohibitive as previously thought. Further refinement to the decision framework incorporating additional data may yield strategies to better target the zero-dose population in a financially feasible manner.

Global vaccine coverage and childhood survival estimates: 1990-2019.

Objective: To quantify the association between reduction in child mortality and routine immunization across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We used child mortality and vaccine coverage data from the Global Burden of Disease Study. We used a modified child survival framework and applied a mixed-effects regression model to estimate the reduction in deaths in children younger than 5 years associated with eight vaccines. Findings: Between 1990 and 2019, the diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP), measles, rotavirus and Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccines were significantly associated with an estimated 86.9 (95% confidence interval, CI: 57.2 to 132.4) million fewer deaths in children younger than 5 years worldwide. This decrease represented a 24.2% (95% CI: 19.8 to 28.9) reduction in deaths relative to a scenario without vaccines. The DTP and measles vaccines averted 46.7 (95% CI: 30.0 to 72.7) million and 37.9 (95% CI: 25.4 to 56.8) million deaths, respectively. Of the total reduction in child mortality associated with vaccines, 84.2% (95% CI: 83.0 to 85.1) occurred in 73 countries supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, with an estimated 45.4 (95% CI: 29.8 to 69.2) million fewer deaths from 2000 to 2019. The largest reductions in deaths associated with these four vaccines were in India, China, Ethiopia, Pakistan and Bangladesh (in order of the size of reduction). Conclusion: Vaccines continue to reduce childhood mortality significantly, especially in Gavi-supported countries, emphasizing the need for increased investment in routine immunization programmes.

Equity in vaccine coverage in Uganda from 2000 to 2016: revealing the multifaceted nature of inequity.

BACKGROUND: This study analyses vaccine coverage and equity among children under five years of age in Uganda based on the 2016 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey (UDHS) dataset. Understanding equity in vaccine access and the determinants is crucial for the redress of emerging as well as persistent inequities. METHODS: Applied to the UDHS for 2000, 2006, 2011, and 2016, the Vaccine Economics Research for Sustainability and Equity (VERSE) Equity Toolkit provides a multivariate assessment of immunization coverage and equity by (1) ranking the sample population with a composite direct unfairness index, (2) generating quantitative measure of efficiency (coverage) and equity, and (3) decomposing inequity into its contributing factors. The direct unfairness ranking variable is the predicted vaccination coverage from a logistic model based upon fair and unfair sources of variation in vaccination coverage. Our fair source of variation is defined as the child's age - children too young to receive routine immunization are not expected to be vaccinated. Unfair sources of variation are the child's region of residence, and whether they live in an urban or rural area, the mother's education level, the household's socioeconomic status, the child's sex, and their insurance coverage status. For each unfair source of variation, we identify a "more privileged" situation. RESULTS: The coverage and equity of the Diphtheria-Pertussis-Tetanus vaccine, 3rd dose (DPT3) and the Measles-Containing Vaccine, 1st dose (MCV1) - two vaccines indicative of the health system's performance - improved significantly since 2000, from 49.7% to 76.8% and 67.8% to 82.7%, respectively, and there are fewer zero-dose children: from 8.4% to 2.2%. Improvements in retaining children in the program so that they complete the immunization schedule are more modest (from 38.1% to 40.8%). Progress in coverage was pro-poor, with concentration indices (wealth only) moving from 0.127 (DPT3) and 0.123 (MCV1) in 2000 to -0.042 and -0.029 in 2016. Gains in overall equity (composite) were more modest, albeit significant for most vaccines except for MCV1: concentration indices of 0.150 (DPT3) and 0.087 (MCV1) in 2000 and 0.054 and 0.055 in 2016. The influence of the region and settings (urban/rural) of residence significantly decreased since 2000. CONCLUSION: The past two decades have seen significant improvements in vaccine coverage and equity, thanks to the efforts to strengthen routine immunization and ongoing supplemental immunization activities such as the Family Health Days. While maintaining the regular provision of vaccines to all regions, efforts should be made to alleviate the impact of low maternal education and literacy on vaccination uptake.

Group-based trajectory models of integrated vaccine delivery and equity in low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Integrated vaccine delivery - the linkage of routine vaccination with provision of other essential health services - is a hallmark of robust primary care systems that has been linked to equitable improvements in population health outcomes. METHODS: We gathered longitudinal data relating to routine immunization coverage and vaccination equity in 78 low- and middle-income countries that have ever received support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, using multiple imputation to handle missing values. We then estimated several group-based trajectory models to describe the relationship between integrated vaccine delivery and vaccination equity in these countries. Finally, we used multinomial logistic regression to identify predictors of group membership. RESULTS: We identified five distinct trajectories of geographic vaccination equity across both the imputed and non-imputed datasets, along with two and four trajectories of socioeconomic vaccination equity in the imputed and non-imputed datasets, respectively. Integration was associated with reductions in the slope index of inequality of measles vaccination in the countries analyzed. Integration was also associated with an increase in the percentage of districts reporting high measles vaccination coverage. CONCLUSIONS: Integrated vaccine delivery is most strongly associated with improvements in vaccination equity in settings with high baseline levels of inequity. Continued scholarship is needed to further characterize the relationship between integration and health equity, as well as to improve measurement of vaccination coverage and integration.

Understanding household-level risk factors for zero dose immunization in 82 low- and middle-income countries.

INTRODUCTION: In 2021, an estimated 18 million children did not receive a single dose of routine vaccinations and constitute the population known as zero dose children. There is growing momentum and investment in reaching zero dose children and addressing the gross inequity in the reach of immunization services. To effectively do so, there is an urgent need to characterize more deeply the population of zero dose children and the barriers they face in accessing routine immunization services. METHODS: We utilized the most recent DHS and MICS data spanning 2011 to 2020 from low, lower-middle, and upper-middle income countries. Zero dose status was defined as children aged 12-23 months who had not received any doses of BCG, DTP-containing, polio, and measles-containing vaccines. We estimated the prevalence of zero-dose children in the entire study sample, by country income level, and by region, and characterized the zero dose population by household-level factors. Multivariate logistic regressions were used to determine the household-level sociodemographic and health care access factors associated with zero dose immunization status. To pool multicountry data, we adjusted the original survey weights according to the country's population of children 12-23 months of age. To contextualize our findings, we utilized United Nations Population Division birth cohort data to estimate the study population as a proportion of the global and country income group populations. RESULTS: We included a total of 82 countries in our univariate analyses and 68 countries in our multivariate model. Overall, 7.5% of the study population were zero dose children. More than half (51.9%) of this population was concentrated in African countries. Zero dose children were predominantly situated in rural areas (75.8%) and in households in the lowest two wealth quintiles (62.7%) and were born to mothers who completed fewer than four antenatal care (ANC) visits (66.5%) and had home births (58.5%). Yet, surprisingly, a considerable proportion of zero dose children's mothers did receive appropriate care during pregnancy (33.5% of zero dose children have mothers who received at least 4 ANC visits). When controlled for other factors, children had three times the odds (OR = 3.00, 95% CI: 2.72, 3.30) of being zero dose if their mother had not received any tetanus injections, 2.46 times the odds (95% CI: 2.21, 2.74) of being zero dose if their mother had not received any ANC visits, and had nearly twice the odds (OR = 1.87, 95% CI: 1.70, 2.05) of being zero dose if their mother had a home delivery, compared to children of mothers who received at least 2 tetanus injections, received at least 4 ANC visits, and had a facility delivery, respectively. DISCUSSION: A lack of access to maternal health care was a strong risk factor of zero dose status and highlights important opportunities to improve the quality and integration of maternal and child health programs. Additionally, because a substantial proportion of zero dose children and their mothers do receive appropriate care, approaches to reach zero dose children should incorporate mitigating missed opportunities for vaccination.

Adding new childhood vaccines to China's National Immunization Program: evidence, benefits, and priorities.

China's National Immunization Program has made remarkable achievements but does not include several important childhood vaccines that are readily available in the private market, such as pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV), rotavirus vaccine, Haemophilus influenzae serotype b (Hib) vaccine, and varicella vaccine. We reviewed the literature to assess these four non-National Immunization Program vaccines in terms of their disease burdens, coverage, inequalities, and cost-effectiveness in China and aimed to recommend priorities for introducing them to the National Immunization Program. Based on our calculations using the available evidence, incorporating these vaccines into China's National Immunization Program in 2019 could have averted 11 761 deaths among children younger than 5 years, accounting for 10·29% of the total deaths in children younger than 5 years and reducing the mortality rate from 7·8 per 1000 to 7·0 per 1000. The review showed that 13-valent PCV (PCV13) had the lowest and most inequitable coverage but could prevent the highest number of deaths. In a budgetary analysis for the cohort of newborns in 2023, we estimated that the projected aggregate government costs were US$1954·92 million for PCV13, $1273·13 million for pentavalent rotavirus vaccine, $415·30 million for Hib vaccine, and $221·64 million for varicella vaccine. Our overall multicriteria decision analysis suggested the following priority order for introducing these four non-programme vaccines to the National Immunization Program to benefit the Chinese population: PCV13, rotavirus vaccine, Hib vaccine, and varicella vaccine.

An Estimate Of The Return On Investment Of A Malaria Vaccine In 20 Sub-Saharan African Countries, 2021-30.

Malaria is a leading global health problem that was responsible for an estimated 619,000 deaths worldwide in 2021. We modeled the return on investment (ROI) for the introduction and continuation of a four-dose malaria vaccine, RTS,S/AS01, from 2021 to 2030 in twenty sub-Saharan African countries supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. We used the Decade of Vaccine Economics benefits and costing outputs to calculate an ROI using health impact data modeled by the Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (hereafter "Swiss") and Imperial College London (hereafter "Imperial"). The Swiss estimates with a base vaccine price of US$7.00 resulted in an ROI of 0.42, and the Imperial impact estimates with the same base vaccine price resulted in an ROI of 2.30. Inclusion of the fifth seasonal dose for ten countries exhibiting high seasonal disease burden increased the Swiss ROI by 143 percent, to 1.02, and the Imperial ROI by 23.5 percent, to 2.84. To improve ROI, decision makers should continue to improve delivery platforms, decrease vaccine delivery costs, deliver the malaria vaccine in fewer doses, and provide access to vaccine resources.

Estimating global and regional between-country inequality in routine childhood vaccine coverage in 195 countries and territories from 2019 to 2021: a longitudinal study.

Background: Global routine childhood vaccine coverage has plateaued in recent years, and the COVID-19 pandemic further disrupted immunisation services. We estimated global and regional inequality of routine childhood vaccine coverage from 2019 to 2021, particularly assessing the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: We used longitudinal data for 11 routine childhood vaccines from the WHO-UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage (WUENIC), including 195 countries and territories in 2019-2021. The slope index of inequality (SII) and relative index of inequality (RII) of each vaccine were calculated through linear regression to express the difference in coverage between the top and bottom 20% of countries at the global and regional levels. We also explored inequalities of routine childhood vaccine coverage by WHO regions and unvaccinated children by income groups. Findings: Globally between January 1, 2019 and December 31, 2021, most childhood vaccines showed a declining trend in coverage, and therefore an increasing number of unvaccinated children, especially in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Between-country inequalities existed for all 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators. The SII for the third dose of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-containing vaccine (DTP3) coverage was 20.1 percentage points (95% confidence interval: 13.7, 26.5) in 2019, and rose to 23.6 (17.5, 30.0) in 2020 and 26.9 (20.0, 33.8) in 2021. Similar patterns were found for RII results and in other routine vaccines. In 2021, the second dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV2) coverage had the highest global absolute inequality (31.2, [21.5-40.8]), and completed rotavirus vaccine (RotaC) coverage had the lowest (7.8, [-3.9, 19.5]). Among six WHO regions, the European Region consistently had the lowest inequalities, and the Western Pacific Region had the largest inequalities for many indicators, although both increased from 2019 to 2021. Interpretation: Global and regional inequalities of routine childhood vaccine coverage persisted and substantially increased from 2019 to 2021. These findings reveal economic-related inequalities by vaccines, regions, and countries, and underscore the importance of reducing such inequalities. These inequalities were widened during the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in even lower coverage and more unvaccinated children in low-income countries. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Multivariate Assessment of Vaccine Equity in Cambodia: A Longitudinal VERSE Tool Case Study Using Demographic and Health Survey 2004, 2010, and 2014.

Cambodia has exhibited great progress in achieving high coverage in nationally recommended immunizations. As vaccination program managers plan interventions to reach last-mile children, it is important to consider issues of equity immunization priority setting. In this analysis, we apply the VERSE Equity Tool to Cambodia's Demographic and Health Survey for the years 2004, 2010, and 2014 to evaluate multivariate equity in vaccine coverage for 11 vaccination statuses, emphasizing the results of the 2014 survey for MCV1, DTP3, fully immunized for age (FULL), and zero dose (ZERO). The largest drivers of vaccination inequity are socioeconomic status and the educational attainment of the child's mother. MCV1, DTP3, and FULL exhibit increasing levels of both coverage and equity with increasing survey years. The national composite Wagstaff concentration index values from the 2014 survey for DTP3, MCV1, ZERO, and FULL are 0.089, 0.068, 0.573, and 0.087, respectively. The difference in vaccination status coverage between the most and least advantaged quintiles of Cambodia's population, using multivariate ranking criteria, is 23.5% for DTP3, 19.5% for MCV1, 9.1% for ZERO, and 30.3% for FULL. By utilizing these VERSE Equity Tool outputs, immunization program leaders in Cambodia can identify subnational regions in need of targeted interventions.

Multivariate assessment of vaccine equity in Nigeria: A VERSE tool case study using demographic and health survey 2018.

Nigeria experiences wide heterogeneity in vaccination rates by vaccine and region. However, inequities in vaccination status extend beyond just geographic covariates. Traditionally, inequity is represented by a single metric pertaining to socioeconomic status. A growing body of literature suggests that this view is limiting, and a multi-factor approach is necessary to comprehensively evaluate relative disadvantage between individuals. The Vaccine Economics Research for Sustainability and Equity (VERSE) tool produces a composite equity metric, which accounts for multiple factors influencing inequity in vaccination coverage. We apply the VERSE tool to Nigeria's 2018 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) to cross-sectionally evaluate equity in vaccination status for national immunization program (NIP) vaccines over the following contributing covariates: age of child, sex of child, maternal education level, socioeconomic status, health insurance status, state of residence, and urban or rural designation. We also assess equity for zero-dose, fully immunized for age, and completion of NIP. Results show that socioeconomic status contributes substantially to variation vaccination coverage, but it is not the most substantial factor. For all vaccination statuses, except for NIP completion, maternal education level is the greatest contributor towards a child's immunization status among model variables. We highlight the outputs for zero-dose, fully immunized at infancy, MCV1 and PENTA1. The percentage point gap in vaccination status between the top and bottom quintiles of disadvantage, as ranked by the composite indicator is 31.1 (29.5-32.7) for zero-dose status, 53.1 (51.3-54.9) for full immunization status, 48.9 (46.9-50.9) for MCV1, and 67.6 (66.0-69.2) for PENTA1. Though concentration indices indicate inequity for all statuses, full immunization coverage is very low at 31.5% suggesting significant gaps in reaching children after initial doses for routine immunizations. Applying the VERSE tool to future Nigeria DHS surveys can allow decisionmakers to track changes in vaccination coverage equity, in a standardized manner, over time.

Comparing Multivariate with Wealth-Based Inequity in Vaccination Coverage in 56 Countries: Toward a Better Measure of Equity in Vaccination Coverage.

INTRODUCTION: Following a call from the World Health Organization in 2017 for a methodology to monitor immunization coverage equity in line with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, this study applies the Vaccine Economics Research for Sustainability and Equity (VERSE) vaccination equity toolkit to measure national-level inequity in immunization coverage using a multidimensional ranking procedure and compares this with traditional wealth-quintile based ranking methods for assessing inequity. The analysis covers 56 countries with a most recent Demographic & Health Survey (DHS) between 2010 and 2022. The vaccines examined include Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG), Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis-containing vaccine doses 1 through 3 (DTP1-3), polio vaccine doses 1-3 (Polio1-3), the measles-containing vaccine first dose (MCV1), and an indicator for being fully immunized for age with each of these vaccines. MATERIALS & METHODS: The VERSE equity toolkit is applied to 56 DHS surveys to rank individuals by multiple disadvantages in vaccination coverage, incorporating place of residence (urban/rural), geographic region, maternal education, household wealth, sex of the child, and health insurance coverage. This rank is used to estimate a concentration index and absolute equity coverage gap (AEG) between the top and bottom quintiles, ranked by multiple disadvantages. The multivariate concentration index and AEG are then compared with traditional concentration index and AEG measures, which use household wealth as the sole criterion for ranking individuals and determining quintiles. RESULTS: We find significant differences between the two sets of measures in almost all settings. For fully-immunized for age status, the inequities captured using the multivariate metric are between 32% and 324% larger than what would be captured examining inequities using traditional metrics. This results in a missed coverage gap of between 1.1 and 46.4 percentage points between the most and least advantaged. CONCLUSIONS: The VERSE equity toolkit demonstrated that wealth-based inequity measures systematically underestimate the gap between the most and least advantaged in fully-immunized for age coverage, correlated with maternal education, geography, and sex by 1.1-46.4 percentage points, globally. Closing the coverage gap between the bottom and top wealth quintiles is unlikely to eliminate persistent socio-demographic inequities in either coverage or access to vaccines. The results suggest that pro-poor interventions and programs utilizing needs-based targeting, which reflects poverty only, should expand their targeting criteria to include other dimensions to reduce systemic inequalities, holistically. Additionally, a multivariate metric should be considered when setting targets and measuring progress toward reducing inequities in healthcare coverage.

Financing And Funding Gap For 16 Vaccines Across 94 Low- And Middle-Income Countries, 2011-30.

We estimated immunization program costs, financing, and funding gaps for sixteen vaccines among ninety-four low- and middle-income countries during the period 2011-30. Inputs were obtained from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, the 2020 Decade of Vaccine Economics costing analysis, the World Health Organization, Gavi, and the United Nations Children's Fund. We found a total funding gap of $38.4 billion between 2011 and 2030, with the cost of immunization delivery being the main driver (86 percent) of the funding gap. On average, government financing of vaccination programs steadily rises throughout the period. However, the decline in both Gavi and development assistance for health (DAH) financing anticipated between 2011 and 2030 outpaces the forecasted increases in domestic government immunization spending. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was applied to both the costing and the scenario analyses to address uncertainty in the financing of vaccines and vaccine delivery. The results highlight a narrowing gap for vaccine acquisition but a growing gap for vaccine delivery, which emphasizes the critical need for resource mobilization and sustainable financial strategies for immunization programs at national and global levels, as well as a need to address the COVID-19 pandemic's potential effects on government financing for vaccines between 2021 and 2030.

Achieving immunization agenda 2030 coverage targets for 14 pathogens: Projected product and immunization delivery costs for 194 Countries, 2021-2030.

Understanding the level of investment needed for the next decade is vital to achieve the goal of Immunization Agenda 2030 (IA2030). Through the immunization funder perspective, this study estimates both global and regional economic resources required to achieve IA2030 coverage among 194 WHO member countries from 2021 to 2030, against 14 pathogens: Hepatitis B (Hep B), Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib), Human papillomavirus (HPV), Japanese encephalitis (JE), Measles, Meningitis A (Men A), Streptococcus pneumoniae, Rotavirus, Rubella, Yellow Fever (YF), Diphtheria, Tetanus, Pertussis, and Tuberculosis. The total cost of immunization program, routine vaccine, routine delivery, and non-routine costs (SIA and stockpile) were estimated using WHO coverage forecast for IA2030. Incremental costs of achieving IA2030 for all vaccines and cost per immunized child were also assessed. All costs were calculated for each income and regional level, as well as global level. Scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis were conducted to account for uncertainty in future vaccine pricing and delivery costs. The total cost of immunization programs is $269.8 billion (95% confidence interval: $247.1 - $311.8), of which $152.8 billion is considered as routine vaccine cost, $114.9 billion is routine delivery cost. Non- routine cost for LICs and LMICs totaled $2.1 billion. The incremental cost of achieving coverage goals after 2020 is $89.9 billion ($27.7-$110.1), with upper-middle income countries requiring the largest increase in investment (56.2% of incremental costs). The average immunization cost per child across all countries is $192.6. Scenario analysis using the minimum and maximum vaccines price for fully self-financing countries resulted in total costs ranging from $193.6 and $552.2 billion. The immunization program cost among 194 WHO member countries is expected to increase during this decade. The strategy for resource mobilization and increasing investment from country governments and donors are essential to achieving IA2030 coverage and ensuring sustainable immunization programs.

Economic impact of vaccine safety incident in Ukraine: The economic case for safety system investment.

BACKGROUND: Vaccine confidence and coverage decreased following a death temporally but not causally related to measles vaccination in Ukraine in 2008. Large measles outbreaks including international exportations followed. Herein we characterize this experience including associated costs. METHODS: Mixed-methods were used to characterize this vaccine safety incident and quantify health and economic costs. Qualitative interviews illuminate the incident, social climate, and corruption that influenced vaccine confidence in Ukraine. A literature review explored attitudes toward vaccines in the USSR and post-independence Ukraine. Infectious disease incidence was examined before and after the vaccine safety incident. An economic analysis estimated associated healthcare costs, including prevention and outbreak control measures, additional vaccination activities due to failure of the 2008 campaign, treatment costs for new cases domestically and foreign exportation, and productivity loss from treatment time and mortality for new cases. FINDINGS: Vaccine hesitancy and distrust in government and public health programs due to corruption existed in Ukraine before the vaccine safety incident. The mishandling of the 2008 incident catalyzed the decline of vaccine confidence and prompted poor procurement decisions, leading to a drop in infant vaccination coverage, increased domestic measles cases, and exportation of measles. The estimated cost of this incident was approximately $140 million from 2008 to 2018. INTERPRETATION: Absent a rapid and credible vaccine safety response, a coincidental death following immunization resulted in major outbreaks of measles with substantial economic costs. Adequate investments in a post-licensure safety system may help avoid similar future incidents.

COVID-19 impact on index testing services and programmatic cost in 5 high HIV prevalence Indian districts.

BACKGROUND: Restrictions to curb the first wave of COVID-19 in India resulted in a decline in facility-based HIV testing rates, likely contributing to increased HIV transmission and disease progression. The programmatic and economic impact of COVID-19 on index testing, a standardized contact tracing strategy, remains unknown. METHODS: Retrospective programmatic and costing data were analyzed under a US government-supported program to assess the pandemic's impact on the programmatic outcomes and cost of index testing implemented in two Indian states (Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh). We compared index testing continuum outcomes during lockdown (April-June 2020) and post-lockdown (July-Sept 2020) relative to pre-lockdown (January-March 2020) by estimating adjusted rate ratios (aRRs) using negative binomial regression. Startup and recurrent programmatic costs were estimated across geographies using a micro-costing approach. Per unit costs were calculated for each index testing continuum outcome. RESULTS: Pre-lockdown, 2431 index clients were offered services, 3858 contacts were elicited, 3191 contacts completed HIV testing, 858 contacts tested positive, and 695 contacts initiated ART. Compared to pre-lockdown, the number of contacts elicited decreased during lockdown (aRR = 0.13; 95% CI: 0.11-0.16) and post-lockdown (aRR = 0.49; 95% CI: 0.43-0.56); and the total contacts newly diagnosed with HIV also decreased during lockdown (aRR = 0.22; 95% CI: 0.18-0.26) and post-lockdown (aRR = 0.52; 95% CI: 0.45-0.59). HIV positivity increased from 27% pre-lockdown to 40% during lockdown and decreased to 26% post-lockdown. Further, ART initiation improved from 81% pre-lockdown to 88% during lockdown and post-lockdown. The overall cost to operate index testing was $193,457 pre-lockdown and decreased during lockdown to $132,177 (32%) and $126,155 (35%) post-lockdown. Post-lockdown unit cost of case identification rose in facility sites ($372) compared to pre-lockdown ($205), however it decreased in community-based sites from pre-lockdown ($277) to post-lockdown ($166). CONCLUSIONS: There was a dramatic decline in the number of index testing clients in the wake of COVID-19 restrictions that resulted in higher unit costs to deliver services; yet, improved linkage to ART suggests that decongesting centres could improve efficiency. Training index testing staff to provide support across services including non-facility-based HIV testing mechanisms (i.e., telemedicine, HIV self-testing, community-based approaches) may help optimize resources during public health emergencies.

Coverage and Equity of Childhood Vaccines in China.

Importance: Measuring vaccination coverage rates and equity is crucial for informing immunization policies in China. Objectives: To estimate coverage rates and multidimensional equity for childhood vaccination in China. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study was conducted via a survey in 10 Chinese provinces between August 5 and October 16, 2019, among children ages 6 months to 5 years and their primary caregivers. Children's vaccination records and their primary caregivers' demographics and socioeconomic status were collected. Data were analyzed from November 2019 to March 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Vaccine coverage rates were measured as a percentage of National Immunization Program (NIP) and non-NIP vaccines administered before the day on which the child was surveyed. A multidimensional equity model applied a standardized approach to ranking individuals from least to most unfairly disadvantaged by estimating differences between observed vaccination status and estimated vaccination status as function of fair and unfair variation. Fair sources of variation in coverage included whether the child was of age to receive the vaccine, and unfair sources of variation included sex of the child and sociodemographic characteristics of caregivers. Absolute equity gaps (AEGs), concentration index values, and decompositions of factors associated with vaccine equity were estimated in the model. Results: Vaccine records and sociodemographic information of 5294 children (2976 [52.8%] boys and 2498 [47.2%] girls; age range, 6-59 months; 1547 children aged 12-23 months) and their primary caregivers were collected from 10 provinces. Fully immunized coverage under the NIP was 83.1% (95% CI, 82.0%-84.1%) at the national level and more than 80% in 7 provinces (province coverage ranged from 77.8% [95% CI, 74.3% to 81.3%] in Jiangxi to 88.4% [95% CI, 85.7%-91.1%] in Beijing). For most non-NIP vaccines, however, coverage rates were less than 50%, ranging from 1.8% (95% CI, 1.3%-2.2%) for the third dose of rotavirus vaccine to 67.1% (65.4% to 68.8%) for the first dose of the varicella vaccine. The first dose of Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccine had the largest AEG, at 0.603 (95% CI, 0.570-0.636), and rotavirus vaccine dose 3 had the largest concentration index value, at 0.769 (95% CI, 0.709-0.829). The largest share of non-NIP vaccine inequity was contributed by monthly family income per capita, followed by education level, place of residence, and province for caregivers. For example, the proportion of explained inequity for pneumococcal conjugate vaccine dose 3 was 40.94% (95% CI, 39.49%-42.39%), 22.67% (95% CI, 21.43%-23.9%), 27.15% (95% CI, 25.84%-28.46%), and 0.68% (95% CI, 0.44%-0.92%) for these factors, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: This cross-sectional study found that NIP vaccination coverage in China was high but there was inequity for non-NIP vaccines. These findings suggest that improvements in equitable coverage of non-NIP vaccination may be urgently needed to meet national immunization goals.

Healthcare use and costs among individuals receiving mental health services for depression within primary care in Nepal.

BACKGROUND: Integrating mental health services into primary care is a key strategy for reducing the mental healthcare treatment gap in low- and middle-income countries. We examined healthcare use and costs over time among individuals with depression and subclinical depressive symptoms in Chitwan, Nepal to understand the impact of integrated care on individual and health system resources. METHODS: Individuals diagnosed with depression at ten primary care facilities were randomized to receive a package of integrated care based on the Mental Health Gap Action Programme (treatment group; TG) or this package plus individual psychotherapy (TG + P); individuals with subclinical depressive symptoms received primary care as usual (UC). Primary outcomes were changes in use and health system costs of outpatient healthcare at 3- and 12-month follow up. Secondary outcomes examined use and costs by type. We used Poisson and log-linear models for use and costs, respectively, with an interaction term between time point and study group, and with TG as reference. RESULTS: The study included 192 primary care service users (TG = 60, TG + P = 60, UC = 72; 86% female, 24% formally employed, mean age 41.1). At baseline, outpatient visits were similar (- 11%, p = 0.51) among TG + P and lower (- 35%, p = 0.01) among UC compared to TG. Visits increased 2.30 times (p < 0.001) at 3 months among TG, with a 50% greater increase (p = 0.03) among TG + P, before returning to baseline levels among all groups at 12 months. Comparing TG + P to TG, costs were similar at baseline (- 1%, p = 0.97) and cost changes did not significantly differ at three (- 16%, p = 0.67) or 12 months (- 45%, p = 0.13). Costs among UC were 54% lower than TG at baseline (p = 0.005), with no significant differences in cost changes over follow up. Post hoc analysis indicated individuals not receiving psychotherapy used less frequent, more costly healthcare. CONCLUSION: Delivering psychotherapy within integrated services for depression resulted in greater healthcare use without significantly greater costs to the health system or individual. Previous research in Chitwan demonstrated psychotherapy determined treatment effectiveness for people with depression. While additional research is needed into service implementation costs, our findings provide further evidence supporting the inclusion of psychotherapy within mental healthcare integration in Nepal and similar contexts.