ABSTRACT
Objective: Intent-to-treat analysis follows patients from listing to death, regardless of their transplant status, and aims to provide a more holistic scope of the progress made in adult solid-organ transplantation. Background: Many studies have shown progress in waitlist and post-transplant survival for adult kidney, liver, heart, and lung transplants, but there is a need to provide a more comprehensive perspective of transplant outcomes for patients and their families. Methods: Univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses were used to analyze factors contributing to intent-to-treat survival in 813,862 adults listed for kidney, liver, heart, and lung transplants. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to examine changes in waitlist, post-transplant, and intent-to-treat survival. Transplantation rates were compared using χ2 tests. Results: Intent-to-treat survival has steadily increased for liver, heart, and lung transplants. The percentage of patients transplanted within 1 year significantly increased for heart (57.4% from 52.9%) and lung (73.5% from 33.2%). However, the percentage of patients transplanted within 1 year significantly decreased from 35.8% to 21.2% for kidney transplant. Notably, intent-to-treat survival has decreased for kidneys despite increases in waitlist and post-transplant survival, likely because of the decreased transplant rate. Conclusion: Intent-to-treat survival steadily improved for liver, heart, and lung transplant over the 30-year study period. Continued advancements in allocation policy, immunosuppression, and improved care of patients on the waitlist may contribute to further progress in outcomes of all organs, but the increasing discrepancy in supply and demand of donor kidneys is alarming and has impeded the progress of kidney intent-to-treat survival.
ABSTRACT
UNLABELLED: The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) allocation system for liver transplantation provides "exceptions" for diseases such as hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). It was the aim of this study to assess equipoise between exception candidates and nonexception candidates on the waiting list and to assess if the exception system contributes to steadily increasing regional MELD at transplant. In all, 78,595 adult liver transplant candidates between January 2005 and December 2012 were analyzed. Yearly trends in waiting list characteristics and transplantation rates were analyzed for statistical association with MELD exceptions. Regional variations in these associations and the effect of exceptions on regional MELD scores at transplant were also analyzed. 27.29% of the waiting list was occupied by candidates with exceptions. Candidates with exceptions fared much better on the waiting list compared to those without exceptions in mean days waiting (HCC 237 versus non-HCC 426), transplantation rates (HCC 79.05% versus non-HCC 40.60%), and waiting list death rates (HCC 4.49% versus non-HCC 24.63%). Strong regional variation in exception use occurred but exceptions were highly correlated with waiting list death rates, transplantation rates, and MELD score at removal in all regions. In a multivariate model predicting MELD score at transplant within regions, the percentage of HCC MELD exceptions was the strongest independent predictor of regional MELD score at transplant. CONCLUSION: Liver transplant candidates with MELD exceptions have superior outcomes compared to nonexception candidates and the current MELD exception system is largely responsible for steadily increasing MELD scores at transplant independent of geography.
Subject(s)
Carcinoma, Hepatocellular/surgery , Liver Neoplasms/surgery , Liver Transplantation , Severity of Illness Index , Waiting Lists/mortality , Female , Humans , Male , Middle AgedABSTRACT
Adult-to-adult living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) is in a state of flux. Technical innovations and demand have outpaced internal and external regulatory efforts. This has led to a wide array of centers performing LDLT for a variety of indications without clear evidence on the risks to the donor or recipient or the system as a whole. The birth from necessity of LDLT in Asia has led to the extrapolation of the technique in America and Europe that has not been sufficiently studied in the appropriate populations. While there is a clear benefit in some patients, the appropriate donors and recipients have not been defined. Regulatory and ethical consideration should be focused on minimizing acceptable risk in donors and recipients and expanding the investigation into the costs and outcomes of this challenging procedure. The recently funded adult-to-adult living donor liver transplantation cohort sponsored by the National Institutes of Health aims to answer some of these questions over the next five years.
