Optimized Post-Vaccination Strategies and Preventative Measures for SARS-CoV-2

IntroductionSince March of 2020, over 210 million SARS-CoV-2 cases have been reported and roughly five billion doses of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine have been delivered. The rise of the more infectious delta variant has recently indicated the value of reinstating previously relaxed non-pharmacological and test-driven preventative measures. These efforts have been met with resistance, due, in part, to a lack of site-specific quantitative evidence which can justify their value. As vaccination rates continue to increase, a gap in knowledge exists regarding appropriate thresholds for escalation and de-escalation of COVID-19 preventative measures. MethodsWe conducted a series of simulation experiments, trialing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus in a hypothesized working environment that is subject to COVID-19 infections from the surrounding community. We established cohorts of individuals who would, in simulation, work together for a set period of time. With these cohorts, we tested the rates of workplace and community acquired infections based on applied isolation strategies, community infection rates (CIR), scales of testing, non-pharmaceutical interventions, variant predominances and testing strategies, vaccination coverages, and vaccination efficacies of the members included. Permuting through each combination of these variables, we estimated expected case counts for 33,462 unique workplace scenarios. ResultsWhen the CIR is 5 new confirmed cases per 100,000 or fewer, and at 50% of the workforce is vaccinated with a 95% efficacious vaccine, then testing daily with an antigen-based or PCR based test in only unvaccinated workers will result in less than one infection through 4,800 person weeks. When the community infection rate per 100,000 persons is less than or equal to 60, and the vaccination coverage of the workforce is 100% with 95% vaccine efficacy then no masking or routine testing + isolation strategies are needed to prevent workplace acquired infections regardless of variant predominance. Identifying and isolating workers with antigen-based SARS-CoV-2 testing methods results in the same or fewer workplace acquired infections than testing with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) methods. ConclusionsSpecific scenarios exist in which preventative measures taken to prevent SARS-CoV-2 spread, including masking, and testing plus isolation strategies can safely be relaxed. Further, efficacious testing with quarantine strategies exist for implementation in only unvaccinated cohorts in a workplace. Due to shorter turnaround time, antigen-based testing with lower sensitivity is more effective than PCR testing with higher sensitivities in comparable testing strategies. The general reference interactive heatmap we provide can be used for site specific, immediate, parameter-based case count predictions to inform appropriate institutional policy making.

Optimal test-assisted quarantine strategies for COVID-19

ObjectiveTo evaluate the effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 testing on shortening the duration of quarantines for COVID-19 and to identify the most effective choices of testing schedules. DesignWe performed extensive simulations to evaluate the performance of quarantine strategies when one or more SARS-CoV-2 tests were administered during the quarantine. Simulations were based on statistical models for the transmissibility and viral loads of SARS-CoV-2 infections and the sensitivities of available testing methods. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the impact of perturbations in model assumptions on the outcomes of optimal strategies. ResultsWe found that SARS-CoV-2 testing can effectively reduce the length of a quarantine without compromising safety. A single RT-PCR test performed before the end of quarantine can reduce quarantine duration to 10 days. Two tests can reduce the duration to 8 days, and three highly sensitive RT-PCR tests can justify a 6-day quarantine. More strategic testing schedules and longer quarantines are needed if tests are administered with less sensitive RT-PCR tests or antigen tests. Shorter quarantines can be utilized for applications that tolerate a residual post-quarantine transmission risk comparable to a 10-day quarantine. ConclusionsTesting could substantially reduce the length of isolation, reducing the physical and mental stress caused by lengthy quarantines. With increasing capacity and lowered costs of SARS-CoV-2 tests, test-assisted quarantines could be safer and more cost-effective than 14-day quarantines and warrant more widespread use. RESEARCH IN CONTEXTO_ST_ABSWhat is already known on this topic?C_ST_ABSO_LIRecommendations for quarantining individuals who could have been infected with COVID-19 are based on limited evidence. C_LIO_LIDespite recent theoretical and case studies of test-assisted quarantines, there has been no substantive investigation to quantify the safety and efficacy of, nor an exhaustive search for, optimal test-assisted quarantine strategies. C_LI What this study addsO_LIOur simulations indicate that the 14-day quarantine approach is overly conservative and can be safely shortened if testing is performed. C_LIO_LIOur recommendations include testing schedules that could be immediately adopted and implemented as government and industry policies. C_LI Role of the Funding SourceA major technology company asked that we perform simulations to understand the optimal strategy for managing personnel quarantining before forming cohorts of individuals who would work closely together. The funding entity did not influence the scope or output of the study but requested that we include antigen testing as a component of the quarantining process. Patrick Yu and Peter Matos are employees of Corporate Medical Advisors, and International S.O.S employs Julie McCashin. Other funding sources are research grants and did not influence the investigation.

Prevalence, Patterns, and Genetic Association Analysis of Modic Vertebral Endplate Changes.

STUDY DESIGN: A prospective genetic association study. PURPOSE: The etiology of Modic changes (MCs) is unclear. Recently, the role of genetic factors in the etiology of MCs has been evaluated. However, studies with a larger patient subset are lacking, and candidate genes involved in other disc degeneration phenotypes have not been evaluated. We studied the prevalence of MCs and genetic association of 41 candidate genes in a large Indian cohort. OVERVIEW OF LITERATURE: MCs are vertebral endplate signal changes predominantly observed in the lumbar spine. A significant association between MCs and lumbar disc degeneration and nonspecific low back pain has been described, with the etiopathogenesis implicating various mechanical, infective, and biochemical factors. METHODS: We studied 809 patients using 1.5-T magnetic resonance imaging to determine the prevalence, patterns, distribution, and type of lumbar MCs. Genetic association analysis of 71 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of 41 candidate genes was performed based on the presence or absence of MCs. SNPs were genotyped using the Sequenome platform, and an association test was performed using PLINK software. RESULTS: The mean age of the study population (n=809) was 36.7±10.8 years. Based on the presence of MCs, the cohort was divided into 702 controls and 107 cases (prevalence, 13%). MCs were more commonly present in the lower (149/251, 59.4%) than in the upper (102/251, 40.6%) endplates. L4-5 endplates were the most commonly affected levels (30.7%). Type 2 MCs were the most commonly observed pattern (n=206, 82%). The rs2228570 SNP of VDR (p=0.02) and rs17099008 SNP of MMP20 (p=0.03) were significantly associated with MCs. CONCLUSIONS: Genetic polymorphisms of SNPs of VDR and MMP20 were significantly associated with MCs. Understanding the etiopathogenetic mechanisms of MCs is important for planning preventive and therapeutic strategies.

Genetic Polymorphisms in Estrogen Metabolic Pathway Associated with Risks of Alzheimer's Disease: Evidence from a Southern Chinese Population.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether genetic variations on the estrogen metabolic pathway would be associated with risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD). DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: Individuals were recruited at the Memory Clinic, Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong. PARTICIPANTS: Chinese individuals with (n = 426) and without (n = 350) AD. MEASUREMENTS: All subjects underwent a standardized cognitive assessment and genotyping of four candidate genes on the estrogen metabolic pathway (estrogen receptor α gene (ESR1), estrogen receptor ß gene (ESR2), cytochrome P450 19A1 gene (CYP19A1), cytochrome P450 11A1 gene (CYP11A1)). RESULTS: Apart from consistent results showing an association between apolipoprotein (APO)E and AD, strong evidence of disease associations were found for polymorphisms in ESR2 and CYP11A1 based on the entire data set. For ESR2, significant protective effects were found for A alleles of rs4986938 (permuted P = .02) and rs867443 (permuted P = .02). For CYP11A1, significant risk effects were found for G alleles of rs11638442 (permuted P = .03) and rs11632698 (permuted P = .03). Stratifying subjects according to APOE ε4 status, their genetic effects continued to be significant in the APOE ε4-negative subgroup. Associations between CYP11A1 polymorphisms (rs2279357, rs2073475) and risk of AD were detected in women but not men. Further gene-level analysis confirmed the above association between ESR2 and CYP11A1, and pathway-level analysis highlighted the genetic effect of the estrogen metabolic pathway on disease susceptibility (permuted pathway-level P = .03). CONCLUSION: Consistent with previous biological findings for sex steroid hormones in the central nervous system, genetic alterations on the estrogen metabolic pathway were revealed in the Chinese population. Confirmation of these present findings in an independent population is warranted to elucidate disease pathogenesis and to explore the potential of hormone therapy in the treatment of AD.

Prevalence, Patterns, and Genetic Association Analysis of Modic Vertebral Endplate Changes

STUDY DESIGN: A prospective genetic association study. PURPOSE: The etiology of Modic changes (MCs) is unclear. Recently, the role of genetic factors in the etiology of MCs has been evaluated. However, studies with a larger patient subset are lacking, and candidate genes involved in other disc degeneration phenotypes have not been evaluated. We studied the prevalence of MCs and genetic association of 41 candidate genes in a large Indian cohort. OVERVIEW OF LITERATURE: MCs are vertebral endplate signal changes predominantly observed in the lumbar spine. A significant association between MCs and lumbar disc degeneration and nonspecific low back pain has been described, with the etiopathogenesis implicating various mechanical, infective, and biochemical factors. METHODS: We studied 809 patients using 1.5-T magnetic resonance imaging to determine the prevalence, patterns, distribution, and type of lumbar MCs. Genetic association analysis of 71 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of 41 candidate genes was performed based on the presence or absence of MCs. SNPs were genotyped using the Sequenome platform, and an association test was performed using PLINK software. RESULTS: The mean age of the study population (n=809) was 36.7±10.8 years. Based on the presence of MCs, the cohort was divided into 702 controls and 107 cases (prevalence, 13%). MCs were more commonly present in the lower (149/251, 59.4%) than in the upper (102/251, 40.6%) endplates. L4–5 endplates were the most commonly affected levels (30.7%). Type 2 MCs were the most commonly observed pattern (n=206, 82%). The rs2228570 SNP of VDR (p=0.02) and rs17099008 SNP of MMP20 (p=0.03) were significantly associated with MCs. CONCLUSIONS: Genetic polymorphisms of SNPs of VDR and MMP20 were significantly associated with MCs. Understanding the etiopathogenetic mechanisms of MCs is important for planning preventive and therapeutic strategies.

EGFR nuclear import in gallbladder carcinoma: nuclear phosphorylated EGFR upregulates iNOS expression and confers independent prognostic impact.

BACKGROUND: The understanding of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) deregulation in carcinogenesis remains incomplete. We investigated the implications of EGFR gene status and EGFR nuclear translocation in gallbladder carcinoma (GBCA). METHODS: Subcellular localization of EGFR and phosphorylated EGFR (pEGFR) was analyzed by fractional immunoblotting and confocal immunofluorescence in GBCA cell lines. pEGFR binding to iNOS promoter was assessed by chromatin immunoprecipitation with iNOS promoter activity evaluated by luciferase assay. EGFR, pEGFR, and iNOS were immunohistochemically assessable for localization and level in the training set of 104 GBCAs on tissue microarrays, with 76 cases analyzed for EGFR gene by chromogenic in situ hybridization (CISH) and mutant-enriched PCR targeting exons 19 and 21. The prognostic impact of nuclear pEGFR (N-pEGFR) immunoexpression was reaffirmed on whole sections of 58 GBCAs in the test set. RESULTS: Nuclear expression of EGFR and pEGFR was substantiated in vitro with augmented activity of iNOS promoter elicited by pEGFR binding upon EGF treatment. Despite no mutation, EGFR amplification, identified in 11 cases (15%) by CISH, strongly correlated with cytoplasmic EGFR expression (P < 0.001) but not with disease-specific survival (DSS). Immunoexpression of nuclear EGFR (N-EGFR), cytoplasmic pEGFR, and N-pEGFR was strongly related to that of iNOS (all ≤0.005). N-pEGFR independently predicted worse DSS in both training (P = 0.0468, HR = 2.024) and test sets (P = 0.0223, HR = 5.573). CONCLUSIONS: N-EGFR and N-pEGFR express in GBCA, conferring clinical aggressiveness partly through iNOS transactivation. Lacking response-predicting mutation, EGFR gene status, albeit amplified in 15% of GBCA, is neither related to nuclear EGFR translocation nor prognostically useful.

Polymorphisms of CR1, CLU and PICALM confer susceptibility of Alzheimer's disease in a southern Chinese population.

In this case-controlled study, we tested susceptible genetic variants for Alzheimer's disease (AD) in CR1, CLU and PICALM from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in a southern Chinese population. Eight hundred twelve participants consisting of 462 late-onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD) patients and 350 nondemented control subjects were recruited. We found by multivariate logistic regression analysis, that single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in CR1 (rs6656401 adjusted allelic p = 0.035; adjusted genotypic p = 0.043) and CLU (rs2279590 adjusted allelic p = 0.035; adjusted genotypic p = 0.006; rs11136000 adjusted allelic p = 0.038; adjusted genotypic p = 0.009) were significantly different between LOAD patients and nondemented controls. For PICALM, LOAD association was found only in the APOE ε4 (-) subgroup (rs3851179 adjusted allelic p = 0.028; adjusted genotypic p = 0.013). Our findings showed evidence of CR1, CLU, and PICALM and LOAD susceptibility in an independent southern Chinese population, which provides additional evidence for LOAD association apart from prior genome-wide association studies in Caucasian populations.

Genetics of lumbar disk degeneration: technology, study designs, and risk factors.

Lumbar disk degeneration (LDD) is a common musculoskeletal condition. Genetic risk factors have been suggested to play a major role in its cause. This article reviews the main research strategies that have been used to study the genetics of LDD, and the genes that thus far have been identified to influence susceptibility to LDD. With the rapid progress in genomic technologies, further advances in the genetics of LDD are expected in the next few years.

IGG3: a tool to rapidly integrate large genotype datasets for whole-genome imputation and individual-level meta-analysis.

SUMMARY: There is an urgent and increasing demand for integrating large genotype datasets across genome-wide association studies and HapMap project for whole-genome imputation and individual-level meta-analysis. A new algorithm was developed to efficiently merge raw genotypes across large datasets and implemented in the latest version of IGG, IGG3. In addition, IGG3 can integrate the latest phased and unphased HapMap genotypes and can flexibly generate complete sets of input files for six popular genotype imputation tools. We demonstrated the efficiency of IGG3 by simulation tests, which could rapidly merge genotypes in tens of thousands of large genotype chips (e.g. Affymetrix Genome-Wide Human SNP Array 6.0 and Illumina Human1m-duo) and in HapMap III project on an ordinary desktop computer. AVAILABILITY: (http://bioinfo.hku.hk/iggweb) (version 3.0).