A Mechanistic Model for Long COVID Dynamics.

Long COVID, a long-lasting disorder following an acute infection of COVID-19, represents a significant public health burden at present. In this paper, we propose a new mechanistic model based on differential equations to investigate the population dynamics of long COVID. By connecting long COVID with acute infection at the population level, our modeling framework emphasizes the interplay between COVID-19 transmission, vaccination, and long COVID dynamics. We conducted a detailed mathematical analysis of the model. We also validated the model using numerical simulation with real data from the US state of Tennessee and the UK.

Publication bias in trials registered in the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry: Is it a problem? A cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Timely publication of clinical trials is critical to ensure the dissemination and implementation of high-quality healthcare evidence. This study investigates the publication rate and time to publication of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) registered in the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study of RCTs registered with the ANZCTR in 2007, 2009, and 2011. Multiple bibliographic databases were searched until October 2021 to identify trial publications. We then calculated publication rates, proportions, and the time to publish calculated from the date of first participation enrolment to publication date. RESULTS: Of 1,970 trial registrations, 541 (27%) remained unpublished 10 to 14 years later, and the proportion of trials published decreased by 7% from 2007 to 2011. The average time to publish was 4.63 years. The prospective trial registration rate for 2007, 2009 and 2011 was 48% (952 trials) and over this time there was an increase of 19% (280 prospective trials). Trials funded by non-Industry organizations were more likely to be published (74%, 1204/1625 trials) than the industry-funded trials (61%, 224/345 trials). Larger trials with at least 1000 participants were published at a rate of 88% (85/97 trials) and on average took 5.4 years to be published. Smaller trials with less than 100 participants were published at a lower rate with 67% (687/1024 trials) published and these trials took 4.31 years on average to publish. CONCLUSIONS: Just over a quarter of all trials on the ANZCTR for 2007, 2009, and 2011 remain unpublished over a decade later. The average time to publication of nearly five years may reflect the larger trials which will have taken longer to recruit participants. Over half of study sample trials were retrospectively registered, but prospective registration improved over time, highlighting the role of mandating trial registration.

HOW DOES THE LATENCY PERIOD IMPACT THE MODELING OF COVID-19 TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS?

We introduce two mathematical models based on systems of differential equations to investigate the relationship between the latency period and the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. We analyze the equilibrium and stability properties of these models, and perform an asymptotic study in terms of small and large latency periods. We fit the models to the COVID-19 data in the U.S. state of Tennessee. Our numerical results demonstrate the impact of the latency period on the dynamical behaviors of the solutions, on the value of the basic reproduction numbers, and on the accuracy of the model predictions.