Assessing uncertainties in crop and pasture ensemble model simulations of productivity and N2 O emissions.

Simulation models are extensively used to predict agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions. However, the uncertainties of (reduced) model ensemble simulations have not been assessed systematically for variables affecting food security and climate change mitigation, within multi-species agricultural contexts. We report an international model comparison and benchmarking exercise, showing the potential of multi-model ensembles to predict productivity and nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions for wheat, maize, rice and temperate grasslands. Using a multi-stage modelling protocol, from blind simulations (stage 1) to partial (stages 2-4) and full calibration (stage 5), 24 process-based biogeochemical models were assessed individually or as an ensemble against long-term experimental data from four temperate grassland and five arable crop rotation sites spanning four continents. Comparisons were performed by reference to the experimental uncertainties of observed yields and N2 O emissions. Results showed that across sites and crop/grassland types, 23%-40% of the uncalibrated individual models were within two standard deviations (SD) of observed yields, while 42 (rice) to 96% (grasslands) of the models were within 1 SD of observed N2 O emissions. At stage 1, ensembles formed by the three lowest prediction model errors predicted both yields and N2 O emissions within experimental uncertainties for 44% and 33% of the crop and grassland growth cycles, respectively. Partial model calibration (stages 2-4) markedly reduced prediction errors of the full model ensemble E-median for crop grain yields (from 36% at stage 1 down to 4% on average) and grassland productivity (from 44% to 27%) and to a lesser and more variable extent for N2 O emissions. Yield-scaled N2 O emissions (N2 O emissions divided by crop yields) were ranked accurately by three-model ensembles across crop species and field sites. The potential of using process-based model ensembles to predict jointly productivity and N2 O emissions at field scale is discussed.

Trends in primary particulate matter emissions from Canadian agriculture.

Particulate matter (PM) has long been recognized as an air pollutant due to its adverse health and environmental impacts. As emission of PM from agricultural operations is an emerging air quality issue, the Agricultural Particulate Matter Emissions Indicator (APMEI) has been developed to estimate the primary PM contribution to the atmosphere from agricultural operations on Census years and to assess the impact of practices adopted to mitigate these emissions at the soil landscape polygon scale as part of the agri-environmental indicator report series produced by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. In the APMEI, PM emissions from animal feeding operations, wind erosion, land preparation, crop harvest, fertilizer and chemical application, grain handling, and pollen were calculated and compared for the Census years of 1981-2006. In this study, we present the results for PM10 and PM2.5, which exclude chemical application and pollen sources as they only contribute to total suspended particles. In 2006, PM emissions from agricultural operations were estimated to be 652.6 kt for PM10 and 158.1 kt for PM2.5. PM emissions from wind erosion and land preparation account for most of PM emissions from agricultural operations in Canada, contributing 82% of PM10 and 76% of PM2.5 in 2006. Results from the APMEI show a strong reduction in PM emissions from agricultural operations between 1981 and 2006, with a decrease of 40% (442.8 kt) for PM10 and 47% (137.7 kt) for PM2.5. This emission reduction is mainly attributed to the adoption of conservation tillage and no-till practices and the reduction in the area of summer fallow land.