Predicting the spatial abundance of Ixodes ricinus ticks in southern Scandinavia using environmental and climatic data.

Recently, focus on tick-borne diseases has increased as ticks and their pathogens have become widespread and represent a health problem in Europe. Understanding the epidemiology of tick-borne infections requires the ability to predict and map tick abundance. We measured Ixodes ricinus abundance at 159 sites in southern Scandinavia from August-September, 2016. We used field data and environmental variables to develop predictive abundance models using machine learning algorithms, and also tested these models on 2017 data. Larva and nymph abundance models had relatively high predictive power (normalized RMSE from 0.65-0.69, R2 from 0.52-0.58) whereas adult tick models performed poorly (normalized RMSE from 0.94-0.96, R2 from 0.04-0.10). Testing the models on 2017 data produced good results with normalized RMSE values from 0.59-1.13 and R2 from 0.18-0.69. The resulting 2016 maps corresponded well with known tick abundance and distribution in Scandinavia. The models were highly influenced by temperature and vegetation, indicating that climate may be an important driver of I. ricinus distribution and abundance in Scandinavia. Despite varying results, the models predicted abundance in 2017 with high accuracy. The models are a first step towards environmentally driven tick abundance models that can assist in determining risk areas and interpreting human incidence data.

A large-scale screening for the taiga tick, Ixodes persulcatus, and the meadow tick, Dermacentor reticulatus, in southern Scandinavia, 2016.

The taiga tick, Ixodes persulcatus, has previously been limited to eastern Europe and northern Asia, but recently its range has expanded to Finland and northern Sweden. The species is of medical importance, as it, along with a string of other pathogens, may carry the Siberian and Far Eastern subtypes of tick-borne encephalitis virus. These subtypes appear to cause more severe disease, with higher fatality rates than the central European subtype. Until recently, the meadow tick, Dermacentor reticulatus, has been absent from Scandinavia, but has now been detected in Denmark, Norway and Sweden. Dermacentor reticulatus carries, along with other pathogens, Babesia canis and Rickettsia raoultii. Babesia canis causes severe and often fatal canine babesiosis, and R. raoultii may cause disease in humans. We collected 600 tick nymphs from each of 50 randomly selected sites in Denmark, southern Norway and south-eastern Sweden in August-September 2016. We tested pools of 10 nymphs in a Fluidigm real time PCR chip to screen for I. persulcatus and D. reticulatus, as well as tick-borne pathogens. Of all the 30,000 nymphs tested, none were I. persulcatus or D. reticulatus. Our results suggest that I. persulcatus is still limited to the northern parts of Sweden, and have not expanded into southern parts of Scandinavia. According to literature reports and supported by our screening results, D. reticulatus may yet only be an occasional guest in Scandinavia without established populations.

Predicting and mapping human risk of exposure to Ixodes ricinus nymphs using climatic and environmental data, Denmark, Norway and Sweden, 2016.

BackgroundTick-borne diseases have become increasingly common in recent decades and present a health problem in many parts of Europe. Control and prevention of these diseases require a better understanding of vector distribution.AimOur aim was to create a model able to predict the distribution of Ixodes ricinus nymphs in southern Scandinavia and to assess how this relates to risk of human exposure.MethodsWe measured the presence of I. ricinus tick nymphs at 159 stratified random lowland forest and meadow sites in Denmark, Norway and Sweden by dragging 400 m transects from August to September 2016, representing a total distance of 63.6 km. Using climate and remote sensing environmental data and boosted regression tree modelling, we predicted the overall spatial distribution of I. ricinus nymphs in Scandinavia. To assess the potential public health impact, we combined the predicted tick distribution with human density maps to determine the proportion of people at risk.ResultsOur model predicted the spatial distribution of I. ricinus nymphs with a sensitivity of 91% and a specificity of 60%. Temperature was one of the main drivers in the model followed by vegetation cover. Nymphs were restricted to only 17.5% of the modelled area but, respectively, 73.5%, 67.1% and 78.8% of the human populations lived within 5 km of these areas in Denmark, Norway and Sweden.ConclusionThe model suggests that increasing temperatures in the future may expand tick distribution geographically in northern Europe, but this may only affect a small additional proportion of the human population.

Characterizing the virome of Ixodes ricinus ticks from northern Europe.

RNA viruses are abundant infectious agents and present in all domains of life. Arthropods, including ticks, are well known as vectors of many viruses of concern for human and animal health. Despite their obvious importance, the extent and structure of viral diversity in ticks is still poorly understood, particularly in Europe. Using a bulk RNA-sequencing approach that captures the complete transcriptome, we analysed the virome of the most common tick in Europe - Ixodes ricinus. In total, RNA sequencing was performed on six libraries consisting of 33 I. ricinus nymphs and adults sampled in Norway. Despite the small number of animals surveyed, our virus identification pipeline revealed nine diverse and novel viral species, phylogenetically positioned within four different viral groups - bunyaviruses, luteoviruses, mononegavirales and partitiviruses - and sometimes characterized by extensive genetic diversity including a potentially novel genus of bunyaviruses. This work sheds new light on the virus diversity in I. ricinus, expands our knowledge of potential host/vector-associations and tick-transmitted viruses within several viral groups, and pushes the latitudinal limit where it is likely to find tick-associated viruses. Notably, our phylogenetic analysis revealed the presence of tick-specific virus clades that span multiple continents, highlighting the role of ticks as important virus reservoirs.