Predictable patterns within the kelp forest can indirectly create temporary refugia from ocean acidification.

Kelps are recognized for providing many ecosystem services in coastal areas and considered in ocean acidification (OA) mitigation. However, assessing OA modification requires an understanding of the multiple parameters involved in carbonate chemistry, especially in highly dynamic systems. We studied the effects of sugar kelp (Saccharina latissima) on an experimental farm at the north end of Hood Canal, Washington-a low retentive coastal system. In this field mesocosm study, two oyster species (Magallana gigas, Ostrea lurida) were exposed at locations in the mid, edge, and outside the kelp array. The Hood Head Sugar Kelp Farm Model outputs were used to identify dominating factors in spatial and temporal kelp dynamics, while wavelet spectrum analyses helped in understanding predictability patterns. This was linked to the measured biological responses (dissolution, growth, isotopes) of the exposed organisms. Positioned in an area of high (sub)-diel tidal fluxes with low retention potential, there were no measurable alterations of the seawater pH at the study site, demonstrating that the kelp array could not induce a direct mitigating effect against OA. However, beneficial responses in calcifiers were still observed, which are linked to two causes: increased pH predictability and improved provisioning through kelp-derived particulate organic resource utilization and as such, kelp improved habitat suitability and indirectly created refugia against OA. This study can serve as an analogue for many coastal bay habitats where prevailing physical forcing drives chemical changes. Future macrophyte studies that investigate OA mitigating effects should focus also on the importance of predictability patterns, which can additionally improve the conditions for marine calcifiers and ecosystem services vulnerable to or compromised by OA, including aquaculture sustainability.

Natural Analogues in pH Variability and Predictability across the Coastal Pacific Estuaries: Extrapolation of the Increased Oyster Dissolution under Increased pH Amplitude and Low Predictability Related to Ocean Acidification.

Coastal-estuarine habitats are rapidly changing due to global climate change, with impacts influenced by the variability of carbonate chemistry conditions. However, our understanding of the responses of ecologically and economically important calcifiers to pH variability and temporal variation is limited, particularly with respect to shell-building processes. We investigated the mechanisms driving biomineralogical and physiological responses in juveniles of introduced (Pacific; Crassostrea gigas) and native (Olympia; Ostrea lurida) oysters under flow-through experimental conditions over a six-week period that simulate current and future conditions: static control and low pH (8.0 and 7.7); low pH with fluctuating (24-h) amplitude (7.7 ± 0.2 and 7.7 ± 0.5); and high-frequency (12-h) fluctuating (8.0 ± 0.2) treatment. The oysters showed physiological tolerance in vital processes, including calcification, respiration, clearance, and survival. However, shell dissolution significantly increased with larger amplitudes of pH variability compared to static pH conditions, attributable to the longer cumulative exposure to lower pH conditions, with the dissolution threshold of pH 7.7 with 0.2 amplitude. Moreover, the high-frequency treatment triggered significantly greater dissolution, likely because of the oyster's inability to respond to the unpredictable frequency of variations. The experimental findings were extrapolated to provide context for conditions existing in several Pacific coastal estuaries, with time series analyses demonstrating unique signatures of pH predictability and variability in these habitats, indicating potentially benefiting effects on fitness in these habitats. These implications are crucial for evaluating the suitability of coastal habitats for aquaculture, adaptation, and carbon dioxide removal strategies.

Conservation aquaculture as a tool for imperiled marine species: Evaluation of opportunities and risks for Olympia oysters, Ostrea lurida.

Conservation aquaculture is becoming an important tool to support the recovery of declining marine species and meet human needs. However, this tool comes with risks as well as rewards, which must be assessed to guide aquaculture activities and recovery efforts. Olympia oysters (Ostrea lurida) provide key ecosystem functions and services along the west coast of North America, but populations have declined to the point of local extinction in some estuaries. Here, we present a species-level, range-wide approach to strategically planning the use of aquaculture to promote recovery of Olympia oysters. We identified 12 benefits of culturing Olympia oysters, including identifying climate-resilient phenotypes that add diversity to growers' portfolios. We also identified 11 key risks, including potential negative ecological and genetic consequences associated with the transfer of hatchery-raised oysters into wild populations. Informed by these trade-offs, we identified ten priority estuaries where aquaculture is most likely to benefit Olympia oyster recovery. The two highest scoring estuaries have isolated populations with extreme recruitment limitation-issues that can be addressed via aquaculture if hatchery capacity is expanded in priority areas. By integrating social criteria, we evaluated which project types would likely meet the goals of local stakeholders in each estuary. Community restoration was most broadly suited to the priority areas, with limited commercial aquaculture and no current community harvest of the species, although this is a future stakeholder goal. The framework we developed to evaluate aquaculture as a tool to support species recovery is transferable to other systems and species globally; we provide a guide to prioritizing local knowledge and developing recommendations for implementation by using transparent criteria. Our collaborative process engaging diverse stakeholders including managers, scientists, Indigenous Tribal representatives, and shellfish growers can be used elsewhere to seek win-win opportunities to expand conservation aquaculture where benefits are maximized for both people and imperiled species.