Opioid analgesic exposure during the first trimester of pregnancy and the risk of major congenital malformations in infants: a systematic review and meta-analysis†.

BACKGROUND: Prescribed opioid analgesics are frequently used to manage pain in pregnancy. However, the available literature regarding the teratogenic potential of opioid use during pregnancy has not been systematically summarised. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to assess the quality of the evidence on these potential risks and calculate a pooled estimate of risk for any opioid analgesic and individual opioids. METHODS: We searched PubMed, Embase and CINAHL for published studies assessing the risk of major congenital malformations in infants following first-trimester exposure to opioid analgesics compared with a reference group, excluding studies examining opioid agonist therapy or illicit opioid use. We assessed the risk of bias using the Risk of Bias in Non-Randomised Studies of Intervention tool. We pooled adjusted risk estimates from studies rated at serious risk of bias or better in a random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Of 12 identified studies, 11 were at high risk of bias (eight serious; three critical). Relative to unexposed infants, those exposed to any opioid use during the first trimester of pregnancy were not at an increased risk of major congenital malformations overall (relative risk 1.04, 95%CI 0.98-1.11); cardiovascular malformations (relative risk 1.07, 95%CI 0.96-1.20); or central nervous system malformations (relative risk 1.06, 95%CI 0.92-1.21). Raised risk estimates were observed for gastrointestinal malformations (relative risk 1.40, 95%CI 0.38-5.16) and cleft palate (relative risk 1.57, 95%CI 0.48-5.13) following any opioid exposure and atrial septal defects (relative risk 1.20, 95%CI 1.05-1.36) following codeine exposure. CONCLUSIONS: Although the meta-analysis did not indicate substantial increased risk for most malformations examined, this risk remains uncertain due to the methodological limitations of the included studies. Healthcare professionals and pharmaceutical regulators should be aware of the issues related to the quality of research in this field.

Prescription retinoid and contraception use in women in Australia: A population-based study.

BACKGROUND/OBECTIVES: Oral retinoids are teratogenic, and pregnancy avoidance is an important part of retinoid prescribing. Australia does not have a standardised pregnancy prevention programme for women using oral retinoids, and the contraception strategies for women who use oral retinoids are not well understood. The objectives were to determine trends in the use of prescription retinoids among Australian reproductive-aged women and whether women dispensed oral retinoids used contraception concomitantly. METHODS: This was a population-based study using Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits (PBS) dispensing claims for a random 10% sample of 15-44-year-old Australian women, 2013 - 2021. We described rates and annual trends in dispensing claims for PBS-listed retinoids and contraceptives. We also estimated concomitant oral retinoid and contraceptive use on the day of each retinoid dispensing and determined if there was a period of contraceptive treatment that overlapped. Estimates were then extrapolated to the national level. RESULTS: There were 1,545,800 retinoid dispensings to reproductive-aged women; 57.1% were oral retinoids. The rate of retinoid dispensing to reproductive-aged women increased annually, from 28 dispensings per 1000 population in 2013 to 41 per 1000 in 2021. The rate of oral retinoid dispensing doubled over the study period, from 14 dispensings per 1000 population in 2013 to 28 per 1000 in 2021, while topical retinoid dispensing did not change. Only 25% of oral retinoid dispensings had evidence of concomitant contraceptive use in 2021. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of oral retinoid dispensing have doubled among reproductive-aged women over the past decade. A large percentage of oral retinoid use does not appear to have concomitant contraception use, posing a risk of teratogenic effects in pregnancies.

Impact of coordinated care on adherence to antihypertensive medicines among adults experiencing polypharmacy in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Adherence to antihypertensives is key for blood pressure control. Most people with hypertension have several comorbidities and require multiple medicines, leading to complex care pathways. Strategies for coordinating medicine use can improve adherence, but cumulative benefits of multiple strategies are unknown. METHODS: Using dispensing claims for a 10% sample of eligible Australians, we identified adult users of antihypertensives during July 2018-June 2019 who experienced polypharmacy (≥5 unique medicines). We measured medicine use reflecting coordinated medicine management in 3 months before and including first observed dispensing, including: use of simple regimens for each cardiovascular medicine; prescriber continuity; and coordination of dispensings at the pharmacy. We measured adherence (proportion of days covered) to antihypertensive medicines in the following 12 months, and used logistic regression to assess independent associations and interactions of adherence with these measures of care. RESULTS: We identified 202 708 people, of which two-thirds (66.6%) had simple cardiovascular medicine regimens (one tablet per day for each medicine), two-thirds (63.3%) were prescribed >75% of medicines from the same prescriber, and two-thirds (65.5%) filled >50% of their medicine on the same day. One-third (28.4%) of people experienced all three measures of coordinated care. Although all measures were significantly associated with higher adherence, adherence was greatest among people experiencing all three measures (odds ratio = 1.63; 95% confidence interval: 1.55-1.72). This interaction was driven primarily by effects of prescriber continuity and dispensing coordination. CONCLUSIONS: Coordinating both prescribing and dispensing of medicines can improve adherence to antihypertensives, which supports strategies consolidating both prescribing and supply of patients' medicines.

Long-term prescribed opioid use after hospitalization or emergency department presentation among opioid naïve adults (2014-2020)-A population-based descriptive cohort study.

AIMS: The aim of this work is to describe opioid initiation and long-term use after emergency department (ED) visits or hospitalizations in New South Wales, Australia, by patient, admission and clinical characteristics. METHODS: This is a population-based cohort study, including all hospitalizations and ED visits between 2014 and 2020, linked to medicine dispensings, deaths and cancer registrations (Medicines Intelligence Data Platform), among adults with no opioid dispensings in the previous year. Outcome measures were opioid initiations (dispensed within 7 days of discharge) and long-term use (90 days of continuous exposure, 90-270 days after initiation). RESULTS: The cohort included 16 153 096 admissions by 4.2 million opioid-naïve adults; 39.0% were ED presentations without hospital admission, 16.8% hospital admissions via ED and 44.2% direct hospital admissions. Opioids were initiated post-discharge for 6.2% of ED, 8.3% of hospital via ED and 10.0% of direct hospital admissions; of these 1.0%, 2.5% and 0.5% progressed to long-term opioid use, respectively. Initiation was lowest in obstetric admissions without surgery (1.0%), and highest among trauma admissions (25.4%), obstetric admissions with surgical intervention (19.8%) and non-trauma surgical admissions (12.0%). Long-term use was highest among medical admissions via ED (3.5%), trauma admissions (2.3%) and ED alone (1.0%). From 2014 to 2020, overall opioid initiations decreased 16% from 8.7% to 7.2%, and long-term opioid use decreased 33% from 1.3% to 0.8%. CONCLUSIONS: Both opioid initiation and long-term use decreased over time; however, the higher rates of long-term use following trauma, and medical admissions via ED, warrant further surveillance. Strategies supporting appropriate prescribing and access to multidisciplinary pain services will facilitate best practice care.

Antipsychotic use during pregnancy and risk of specific neurodevelopmental disorders and learning difficulties in children: a multinational cohort study.

Background: Antipsychotics are commonly prescribed to treat a range of psychiatric conditions in women of reproductive age and during pregnancy, including schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, anxiety, depression, autism spectrum disorder, and insomnia. This study aimed to evaluate whether children exposed to antipsychotic medication prenatally are at increased risk of specific neurodevelopmental disorders and learning difficulties. Methods: Our population-based cohort study used nationwide register data (1 January 2000-31 December 2020) on pregnant women diagnosed with a psychiatric disorder and their live-born singletons from Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden. Cox proportional hazard regression yielded propensity score-weighted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for risk of intellectual-, speech or language-, learning-developmental disorders, and a composite outcome of the listed disorders. We defined poor performance as scoring within the lowest quartile on national school tests in mathematics and language arts. We estimated propensity score-weighted risk ratios (aRRs) using Poisson regression. We analysed data from Denmark separately and pooled results using random effects meta-analysis. Findings: Among 213,302 children (median follow-up: 6.7 years), 11 626 (5.5%) were exposed to antipsychotics prenatally. Adjusted risk estimates did not suggest an increased risk of neurodevelopmental disorders: aHR of 1.06 (95% CI 0.94-1.20) for the composite outcome, or for poor academic performance: aRR of 1.04 (95% CI 0.91-1.18) in mathematics, and of 1.00 (95% CI 0.87-1.15) in language arts. Results were generally consistent across individual medications, trimesters of exposure, sibling- and sensitivity analyses. Interpretation: The findings of this large multinational cohort study suggest there is little to no increased risk of child neurodevelopmental disorders or learning difficulties after prenatal exposure to antipsychotics. Our findings can assist clinicians and women managing mental illness during pregnancy. Funding: This study was funded by the NordForsk Nordic Program on Health and Welfare (Nordic Pregnancy Drug Safety Studies, project No. 83539), by the Research Council of Norway (International Pregnancy Drug Safety Studies, project No. 273366) and by the Research Council of Norway through its Centres of Excellence funding scheme (project No. 262700), and UNSW Scientia Programme Awards (PS46019, PS46019-A).

Geographic variation in sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist use in people with type 2 diabetes in New South Wales, Australia.

AIM: Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) improve glycaemic control and cardio-renal outcomes for people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, geographic and socio-economic variation in use is not well understood. METHODS: We identified 367 829 New South Wales residents aged ≥40 years who dispensed metformin in 2020 as a proxy for T2D. We estimated the prevalence of use of other glucose-lowering medicines among people with T2D and the prevalence of SGLT2i and GLP-1RA use among people using concomitant T2D therapy (i.e. metformin + another glucose-lowering medicine). We measured the prevalence by small-level geography, stratified by age group, and characterized by remoteness and socio-economic status. RESULTS: The prevalence of SGLT2i (29.7%) and GLP-1RA (8.3%) use in people with T2D aged 40-64 increased with geographic remoteness and in areas of greater socio-economic disadvantage, similar to other glucose-lowering medicines. The prevalence of SGLT2i (55.4%) and GLP-1RA (15.4%) among people using concomitant T2D therapy varied across geographic areas, with lower SGLT2i use in more disadvantaged areas and localized areas of high GLP-1RA use (2.5 times the median). Compared with people aged 40-64 years, the prevalence of SGLT2i and GLP-1RA use was lower in older age groups, but with similar patterns of variation across geographic areas. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of SGLT2i and GLP-1RA use varied by geography, probably reflecting a combination of system- and prescriber-level factors. Socio-economic variation in GLP-1RA use was overshadowed by localized patterns of prescribing. Continued monitoring of variation can help shape interventions to optimize use among people who would benefit the most.

Oxycodone initiation in Australia (2014-2018): Sociodemographic factors and preceding health service use.

AIMS: Oxycodone is the most commonly prescribed strong opioid in Australia. This study describes health service antecedents and sociodemographic factors associated with oxycodone initiation. METHODS: Population-based new user cohort study linking medicine dispensings, hospitalizations, emergency department visits, medical services and cancer notifications from New South Wales (NSW) for 2014-2018. New users had no dispensings of any opioid in the preceding year. We analysed health service use in the 5 days preceding initiation and proportion of people on treatment over 1 year and fitted an area-based, multivariable initiation model with sociodemographic covariates. RESULTS: Oxycodone accounted for 30% of opioid initiations. Annually, 3% of the NSW population initiated oxycodone, and 5-6% were prevalent users; the new user cohort comprised 830 963 people. Discharge from hospital (39.3%), therapeutic procedures (21.4%) and emergency department visits (19.7%) were common; a hospital admission for injury (6.0%) or a past-year history of cancer (7.2%) were less common. At 1 year after initiation, 4.6% of people were using oxycodone. In the multivariable model, new use of oxycodone increased with age and was higher for people outside major cities, for example, an incidence rate ratio of 1.43 (95% confidence interval 1.36-1.51) for inner regional areas relative to major cities; there was no evidence of variation in rates of new use by social disadvantage. CONCLUSION: About half of new oxycodone use in NSW was preceded by a recent episode of hospital care or a therapeutic procedure. Higher rates of oxycodone initiation in rural and regional areas were not explained by sociodemographic factors.

Association between long-term use of calcium channel blockers (CCB) and the risk of breast cancer: a retrospective longitudinal observational study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Calcium channel blockers (CCB), a commonly prescribed antihypertensive (AHT) medicine, may be associated with increased risk of breast cancer. The proposed study aims to examine whether long-term CCB use is associated with the development of breast cancer and to characterise the dose-response nature of any identified association, to inform future hypertension management. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The study will use data from 2 of Australia's largest cohort studies; the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health, and the 45 and Up Study, combined with the Rotterdam Study. Eligible women will be those with diagnosed hypertension, no history of breast cancer and no prior CCB use at start of follow-up (2004-2009). Cumulative dose-duration exposure to CCB and other AHT medicines will be captured at the earliest date of: the outcome (a diagnosis of invasive breast cancer); a competing risk event (eg, bilateral mastectomy without a diagnosis of breast cancer, death prior to any diagnosis of breast cancer) or end of follow-up (censoring event). Fine and Gray competing risks regression will be used to assess the association between CCB use and development of breast cancer using a generalised propensity score to adjust for baseline covariates. Time-varying covariates related to interaction with health services will also be included in the model. Data will be harmonised across cohorts to achieve identical protocols and a two-step random effects individual patient-level meta-analysis will be used. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval was obtained from the following Human research Ethics Committees: Curtin University (ref No. HRE2022-0335), NSW Population and Health Services Research Ethics Committee (2022/ETH01392/2022.31), ACT Research Ethics and Governance Office approval under National Mutual Acceptance for multijurisdictional data linkage research (2022.STE.00208). Results of the proposed study will be published in high-impact journals and presented at key scientific meetings. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05972785.

Secondary Analysis of the Salt Substitute and Stroke Study (SSaSS): Effects of Potassium-Enriched Salt on Cardiac Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: The SSaSS (Salt Substitute and Stroke Study) has shown that use of a potassium-enriched salt lowers the risk of stroke, total cardiovascular events, and premature death. The effects on cause-specific cardiac outcomes are reported here. METHODS: SSaSS was an unblinded, cluster-randomised trial assessing the effects of potassium-enriched salt compared with regular salt among 20 995 Chinese adults with established stroke and older age and uncontrolled hypertension. Post hoc efficacy analyses were performed using an intention-to-treat method and a hierarchical Poisson regression model adjusting for clustering to obtain rate ratios and 95% CIs. We assessed acute coronary syndrome, heart failure, arrhythmia, and sudden death. RESULTS: Over a mean 4.74 years follow-up, there were 695 acute coronary syndrome events, 454 heart failure events, 230 arrhythmia events, and 1133 sudden deaths recorded. The rates of events were lower in potassium-enriched salt group for all outcomes but CIs were wide for most: acute coronary syndrome (6.32 versus 7.65 events per 1000 person-years; rate ratio, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.65-0.99]); heart failure (9.14 versus 11.32 events per 1000 person-years; rate ratio, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.60-1.28]); arrhythmia (4.43 versus 6.20 events per 1000 person-years; rate ratio, 0.59 [95% CI, 0.35-0.98]); and sudden death (11.01 versus 11.76 events per 1000 person-years; rate ratio, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.82-1.07]; all P>0.05 with adjustment for multiple comparisons). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that use of potassium-enriched salt is more likely to prevent than cause cardiac disease but the post hoc nature of these analyses precludes definitive conclusions. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02092090.

Evolution of the data and methods in real-world COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness studies on mortality: a scoping review protocol.

BACKGROUND: Early evidence on COVID-19 vaccine efficacy came from randomised trials. Many important questions subsequently about vaccine effectiveness (VE) have been addressed using real-world studies (RWS) and have informed most vaccination policies globally. As the questions about VE have evolved during the pandemic so have data, study design, and analytical choices. This scoping review aims to characterise this evolution and provide insights for future pandemic planning-specifically, what kinds of questions are asked at different stages of a pandemic, and what data infrastructure and methods are used? METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will identify relevant studies in the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health VIEW-hub database, which curates both published and preprint VE RWS identified from PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, the WHO COVID Database, MMWR, Eurosurveillance, medRxiv, bioRxiv, SSRN, Europe PMC, Research Square, Knowledge Hub, and Google. We will include RWS of COVID-19 VE that reported COVID-19-specific or all-cause mortality (coded as 'death' in the 'effectiveness studies' data set).Information on study characteristics; study context; data sources; design and analytic methods that address confounding will be extracted by single reviewer and checked for accuracy and discussed in a small group setting by methodological and analytic experts. A timeline mapping approach will be used to capture the evolution of this body of literature.By describing the evolution of RWS of VE through the COVID-19 pandemic, we will help identify options for VE studies and inform policy makers on the minimal data and analytic infrastructure needed to support rapid RWS of VE in future pandemics and of healthcare strategies more broadly. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: As data is in the public domain, ethical approval is not required. Findings of this study will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications, conference presentations, and working-papers to policy makers. REGISTRATION: https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/ZHDKR.

Overcoming silos in health care systems through meso-level organisations - a case study of health reforms in New South Wales, Australia.

Fragmented care delivery is a barrier to improving health system performance worldwide. Investment in meso-level organisations is a potential strategy to improve health system integration, however, its effectiveness remains unclear. In this paper, we provide an overview of key international and Australian integrated care policies. We then describe Collaborative Commissioning - a novel health reform policy to integrate primary and hospital care sectors in New South Wales (NSW), Australia and provide a case study of a model focussed on older person's care. The policy is theorised to achieve greater integration through improved governance (local stakeholders identifying as part of one health system), service delivery (communities perceive new services as preferable to status quo) and incentives (efficiency gains are reinvested locally with progressively higher value care achieved). If effectively implemented at scale, Collaborative Commissioning has potential to improve health system performance in Australia and will be of relevance to similar reform initiatives in other countries.

Quality use of publicly subsidised tapentadol in Australia: a population-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: Sustained-release (SR) tapentadol was listed on Australia's Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) in 2014 for chronic severe pain requiring long-term opioid treatment. Dispensings have increased since listing despite declining trends in other PBS-listed opioids. Preferential prescribing of SR opioids may increase the risk of dependence and accidental overdose, particularly when used to treat acute pain. AIMS: To explore the quality use of publicly subsidised tapentadol in Australia. METHODS: We examined annual initiation rates and patterns of use of tapentadol (SR) in the dispensing records of a 10% random sample of PBS-eligible Australians (2014-2021). We used national tapentadol sales data to assess the proportion of sales attributable to the PBS. RESULTS: Tapentadol initiation increased from 2014, peaking at 7.5/1000 adult population in 2019 before declining to 5.3/1000 in 2021. We identified 63 766 new users between 2014 and 2020, of whom 92.8% discontinued in the first year following initiation, 58.0% had only a single dispensing and 34.3% had no other opioids dispensed in the 3 months before or after initiation. 27.8% of new users were dispensed tapentadol on the same day as potentially interacting medicines. There was a sustained drop in the proportion of sales attributable to the PBS from June 2020 onwards, from an average of 69.1%, to 63.9% of pack sales. CONCLUSIONS: Patterns of use suggest tapentadol (SR) is generally used for short duration. Although most tapentadol sold in Australia is subsidised, there is evidence of a shift towards private sales.

Predicting the risk of pancreatic cancer in women with new-onset diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: People with new-onset diabetes mellitus (diabetes) could be a possible target population for pancreatic cancer surveillance. However, distinguishing diabetes caused by pancreatic cancer from type 2 diabetes remains challenging. We aimed to develop and validate a model to predict pancreatic cancer among women with new-onset diabetes. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among Australian women newly diagnosed with diabetes, using first prescription of anti-diabetic medications, sourced from administrative data, as a surrogate for the diagnosis of diabetes. The outcome was a diagnosis of pancreatic cancer within 3 years of diabetes diagnosis. We used prescription medications, severity of diabetes (i.e., change/addition of medication within 2 months after first medication), and age at diabetes diagnosis as potential predictors of pancreatic cancer. RESULTS: Among 99 687 women aged ≥ 50 years with new-onset diabetes, 602 (0.6%) were diagnosed with pancreatic cancer within 3 years. The area under the receiver operating curve for the risk prediction model was 0.73. Age and diabetes severity were the two most influential predictors followed by beta-blockers, acid disorder drugs, and lipid-modifying agents. Using a risk threshold of 50%, sensitivity and specificity were 69% and the positive predictive value (PPV) was 1.3%. CONCLUSIONS: Our model doubled the PPV of pancreatic cancer in women with new-onset diabetes from 0.6% to 1.3%. Age and rapid progression of diabetes were important risk factors, and pancreatic cancer occurred more commonly in women without typical risk factors for type 2 diabetes. This model could prove valuable as an initial screening tool, especially as new biomarkers emerge.

Changes in systemic cancer therapy in Australia during the Delta and Omicron waves of the COVID-19 pandemic (2021-2022): a controlled interrupted time series analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Australian lockdowns in response to the initial coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in 2020 were associated with small and transient changes in the use of systemic cancer therapy. We aimed to investigate the impacts of the longer and more restrictive lockdowns in the Australian states of New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria during both the Delta subvariant lockdowns in mid-2021 and the Omicron subvariant outbreak in late 2021/early 2022. STUDY TYPE: Population-based, controlled interrupted time series analysis. METHODS: We conducted a national observational study using de-identified records of government-subsidised cancer medicines dispensed to a random 10% sample of Australians between July 2018 and July 2022. We used controlled interrupted time series analysis to investigate changes in the dispensing, initiation and discontinuation of all cancer medicines dispensed to residents of NSW and Victoria, using the rest of Australia as a control series. We used quasi-Poisson regression to model weekly counts and estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for the effect of (each) the Delta phase lockdown and the Omicron outbreak on our systemic cancer therapy outcomes. RESULTS: Between July 2018 and July 2022, cancer medicines were dispensed 592 141 times to 33 198 people in NSW and Victoria. Overall, there were no changes to the rates of dispensing, initiation or discontinuation of antineoplastics during the Delta phase lockdowns. In both states during the Omicron outbreak, there were significant decreases in the dispensing of antineoplastics (NSW IRR 0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.84, 0.93. Victoria IRR 0.92; 95% CI 0.88, 0.96) and in the initiation of endocrine therapy (NSW IRR 0.85; 95% CI 0.74, 0.99. Victoria IRR 0.78; 95% CI 0.65, 0.94), and no changes in the discontinuation of any systemic cancer therapy. CONCLUSIONS: The 2021 lockdowns and 2021/2022 Omicron outbreaks in NSW and Victoria had significant impacts on the dispensing, initiation and discontinuation of systemic cancer therapies, however, the overall effects were minimal. The impacts of lockdowns were less significant than the Omicron outbreaks, suggesting COVID-19 infection, health system capacity, and patient and community concerns were important factors for treatment changes.

Age-Related Risk of Serious Fall Events and Opioid Analgesic Use.

Importance: Opioid analgesics may be associated with increased risk of falls, particularly among older adults. Objective: To quantify the age-related risk of serious fall events among adults prescribed opioids by opioid exposure, time from initiation, and daily dose. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cohort study conducted in New South Wales, Australia, used data linking national pharmaceutical claims to national and state datasets, including information on sociodemographic characteristics, clinical characteristics, medicines use, health services utilization, and mortality (POPPY II study). It included adults (18 years or older) who initiated prescription opioid treatment, which was defined as no prior dispensing during the preceding 365 days, between January 1, 2005, and December 31, 2018. Data were analyzed from February to June 2023. Exposure: Time-dependent periods of opioid exposure were evaluated from dispensing records. Main Outcome and Measures: Serious fall events identified from emergency department, hospitalization, and mortality records. Negative binomial models were used to assess associations between time-dependent opioid exposure (overall, by time from initiation, and by dose), age, and risk of fall events. Models were adjusted for known fall risk factors, including other fall risk-increasing drugs, frailty risk, and prior serious fall events. Results: The cohort comprised 3 212 369 individuals who initiated prescription opioid treatment (1 702 332 women [53%]; median [IQR] age at initiation, 49 [32-65] years). Overall, 506 573 serious fall events were identified, including 5210 fatal falls. During exposure to opioids, the risk of serious fall events was elevated among all age groups; compared with the group aged 18 to 44 years, this risk was highest among those 85 years or older (adjusted incident rate ratio, 6.35; 95% CI, 6.20-6.51). Across all age groups, the first 28 days following opioid initiation was a time of increased serious fall risk; this risk increased with age. Among individuals aged 18 to 84 years, associations were identified between higher daily opioid doses and serious fall events. Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this cohort study suggest that prescription opioids were associated with increased risk of serious fall events among adults of all ages, with individuals 85 years or older at greatest risk. These risks should be considered when prescribing opioids, particularly for individuals with preexisting risk factors or when opioids are prescribed at higher doses. Targeted falls prevention efforts may be most effective within the first month following opioid initiation.

Association between unstable diabetes mellitus and risk of pancreatic cancer.

BACKGROUND: Deterioration of glycaemic control in people with long-standing diabetes mellitus (diabetes) may be a possible indicator of pancreatic cancer. However, the magnitude of the association between diabetes deterioration and pancreatic cancer has received little attention. METHODS: We conducted a matched cohort study, nested within a population-based cohort of Australian women with diabetes. Women with unstable diabetes, defined as a change in medication after a 2-year period of stable medication use, were matched by birth year to those with stable diabetes, in a 1:4 ratio. We used flexible parametric survival models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: We included 134,954 and 539,789 women in the unstable and stable diabetes cohorts, respectively (mean age 68 years). In total, 1,315 pancreatic cancers were diagnosed. Deterioration of stable diabetes was associated with a 2.5-fold increased risk of pancreatic cancer (HR 2.55; 95% CI 2.29-2.85). The risk was particularly high within the first year after diabetes deteriorated. HRs at 3 months, 6 months and 1 year were: 5.76 (95% CI 4.72-7.04); 4.56 (95% CI 3.81-5.46); and 3.33 (95% CI 2.86-3.89), respectively. The risk was no longer significantly different after 7 years. CONCLUSIONS: Deterioration in glycaemic control in people with previously stable diabetes may be an indicator of pancreatic cancer, suggesting investigations of the pancreas may be appropriate. The weaker longer-term (3-7 years) association between diabetes deterioration and pancreatic cancer may indicate that poor glycaemic control can be a risk factor for pancreatic cancer.

Characteristics and post-metastasis survival of recurrent metastatic breast cancer over time - An Australian population-based record linkage study, 2001-2016.

AIM: To assess population-level characteristics and post-metastasis survival of people with recurrent metastatic breast cancer (rMBC) during a period when new publicly-subsidised adjuvant and metastatic systemic therapies became available. METHODS: Record linkage study of females in NSW Cancer Registry (NSWCR) diagnosed with non-metastatic breast cancer (BC) in 2001-2002 (C1) and 2006-2007 (C2). We identified first rMBC from NSWCR, administrative hospital records, dispensed medicines and radiotherapy services (2001-2016). We used death registrations to estimate cumulative incidence of BC death. RESULTS: The analysis included 2267 women with rMBC (C1:1210, C2:1057). Compared to C1, C2 had access to adjuvant HER2-targeted therapy and were more likely to have received adjuvant chemotherapy (C1:38%, C2:47%) and aromatase inhibitors (C1:52%, C2:73%, of those dispensed endocrine therapy). Five-year probability of BC death was 65% (95%CI:62-68%) in C1 and 63% (95%CI:60-66%) in C2. Regional disease (T4 or N + ) at initial BC diagnosis (C1:62%, C2:68%), and age ≥ 70 years at first metastasis (C1:27%, C2:31%) were more common in C2 and had poorer prognosis. Five-year probability of BC death was lower in C2 than C1 for treatment-defined HER2-positive BC (C1:72% 95%CI:63-79%; C2:52% 95%CI 45-60%) and those dispensed chemotherapy alone (C1:76% 95%CI:69-82, C2:67% 95%CI:59-74%, p = 0.01), but not treatment-defined hormone receptor-positive HER2-negative BC (C1:60% 95%CI 56-63%, C2:64% 95%CI 60-68%). CONCLUSIONS: Despite less favourable prognostic characteristics in C2, BC-related survival following rMBC was similar between the two cohorts; and improved for women with HER2-positive tumours. These findings support the real-world benefits of newer treatments for rMBC.

Estimated Lifetime Cardiovascular, Kidney, and Mortality Benefits of Combination Treatment With SGLT2 Inhibitors, GLP-1 Receptor Agonists, and Nonsteroidal MRA Compared With Conventional Care in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes and Albuminuria.

BACKGROUND: Sodium glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i), glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RA), and the nonsteroidal mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist (ns-MRA) finerenone all individually reduce cardiovascular, kidney, and mortality outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes and albuminuria. However, the lifetime benefits of combination therapy with these medicines are not known. METHODS: We used data from 2 SGLT2i trials (CANVAS [Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment] and CREDENCE [Canagliflozin and Renal Events in Diabetes with Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation]), 2 ns-MRA trials (FIDELIO-DKD [Finerenone in Reducing Kidney Failure and Disease Progression in Diabetic Kidney Disease] and FIGARO-DKD [Efficacy and Safety of Finerenone in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and the Clinical Diagnosis of Diabetic Kidney Disease]), and 8 GLP-1 RA trials to estimate the relative effects of combination therapy versus conventional care (renin-angiotensin system blockade and traditional risk factor control) on cardiovascular, kidney, and mortality outcomes. Using actuarial methods, we then estimated absolute risk reductions with combination SGLT2i, GLP-1 RA, and ns-MRA in patients with type 2 diabetes and at least moderately increased albuminuria (urinary albumin:creatinine ratio ≥30 mg/g) by applying estimated combination treatment effects to participants receiving conventional care in CANVAS and CREDENCE. RESULTS: Compared with conventional care, the combination of SGLT2i, GLP-1 RA, and ns-MRA was associated with a hazard ratio of 0.65 (95% CI, 0.55-0.76) for major adverse cardiovascular events (nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death). The corresponding estimated absolute risk reduction over 3 years was 4.4% (95% CI, 3.0-5.7), with a number needed to treat of 23 (95% CI, 18-33). For a 50-year-old patient commencing combination therapy, estimated major adverse cardiovascular event-free survival was 21.1 years compared with 17.9 years for conventional care (3.2 years gained [95% CI, 2.1-4.3]). There were also projected gains in survival free from hospitalized heart failure (3.2 years [95% CI, 2.4-4.0]), chronic kidney disease progression (5.5 years [95% CI, 4.0-6.7]), cardiovascular death (2.2 years [95% CI, 1.2-3.0]), and all-cause death (2.4 years [95% CI, 1.4-3.4]). Attenuated but clinically relevant gains in event-free survival were observed in analyses assuming 50% additive effects of combination therapy, including for major adverse cardiovascular events (2.4 years [95% CI, 1.1-3.5]), chronic kidney disease progression (4.5 years [95% CI, 2.8-5.9]), and all-cause death (1.8 years [95% CI, 0.7-2.8]). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with type 2 diabetes and at least moderately increased albuminuria, combination treatment of SGLT2i, GLP-1 RA, and ns-MRA has the potential to afford relevant gains in cardiovascular and kidney event-free and overall survival.

Prevalence and Persistence of Prescription Opioid Use Following Hospital Discharge After Childbirth: An Australian Population-Based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Opioid analgesics are used for acute postpartum pain relief but carry risks, including persistent long-term opioid use. Our primary objective was to estimate the prevalence of persistent use following hospital discharge after childbirth. METHODS: We conducted a population-based cohort study of women discharged from public or private hospitals in New South Wales, Australia, between 2012 and 2018 following vaginal birth (VB) or cesarean delivery (CD). We used linked hospitalization and medicine dispensing data to calculate the prevalence of opioid use within 14 days of hospital discharge for childbirth using an external estimate of the total number of hospital admissions for childbirth per year as the denominator. Among women dispensed an opioid postdischarge, we estimated the prevalence of persistent use defined as ≥3 dispensings between 30- and 365-days postdischarge. To calculate the odds of persistent opioid use, we performed a series of logistic regressions each including a single characteristic of interest. Included characteristics were maternal and birth characteristics, maternal medical conditions, prior use of certain medicines, and the initial opioid dispensed following discharge for childbirth. RESULTS: The final cohort comprised of 38,832 women who were dispensed an opioid in the 14 days following discharge after childbirth. Between 2012 and 2018, the prevalence of opioid use was increased following CD (public hospital 16.6%-21.0%; private hospital 9.8%-19.5%) compared with VB (public hospital 1.5%-1.5%; private hospital 1.2%-1.4%) and was higher following discharge from public hospitals compared with private. The most commonly dispensed opioids following discharge for childbirth were oxycodone (44.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 44.3-45.3), codeine (42.1%; 95% CI, 41.6-42.6), and tramadol (12.9%; 95% CI, 12.6-13.2). Among women dispensed an opioid, the prevalence of persistent opioid use was 5.4% (95% CI, 5.1-5.6). This prevalence was 11.4% (95% CI, 10.5-12.3) following a VB as compared with 4.3% (95% CI, 4.1-4.6) among those who underwent a CD ( P < .001). Characteristics associated with persistent opioid use included smoking during pregnancy, age <25 years, living in remote areas, discharged from a public hospital, history of opioid use disorder, other substance use disorder, mental health diagnosis, or prior use of prescription opioids, nonopioid analgesics, or benzodiazepines. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this cohort study indicate that Australian women have a higher prevalence of opioid use following CD compared to VB. One in 19 women dispensed an opioid postdischarge used opioids persistently. Careful monitoring of opioid therapy following childbirth is warranted, particularly among women with characteristics we identified as high risk for persistent opioid use.