Traffic environment and demographic factors affecting impaired driving and crashes.

INTRODUCTION: Data availability has forced researchers to examine separately the role of alcohol among drivers who crashed and drivers who did not crash. Such a separation fails to account fully for the transition from impaired driving to an alcohol-related crash. METHOD: In this study, we analyzed recent data to investigate how traffic-related environments, conditions, and drivers' demographics shape the likelihood of a driver being either involved in a crash (alcohol impaired or not) or not involved in a crash (alcohol impaired or not). Our data, from a recent case-control study, included a comprehensive sampling of the drivers in nonfatal crashes and a matched set of comparison drivers in two U.S. locations. Multinomial logistic regression was applied to investigate the likelihood that a driver would crash or would not crash, either with a blood alcohol concentration (BAC)=.00 or with a BAC≥.05. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this study is the first to examine how different driver characteristics and environmental factors simultaneously contribute to alcohol use by crash-involved and non-crash-involved drivers. This effort calls attention to the need for research on the simultaneous roles played by all the factors that may contribute to motor vehicle crashes.

The Long Beach/Fort Lauderdale relative risk study.

PROBLEM: The role of alcohol as a major factor in traffic crash causation has been firmly established. However, controversy remains as to the precise shape of the relative risk function and the BAC at which crash risk begins to increase. METHODS: This study used a case-control design in two locations: Long Beach, California, and Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Data were collected on 2,871 crashes of all severities and a matched control group of drivers selected from the same time, location, and direction of travel as the crash drivers. Of the 14,985 sample drivers, 81.3% of the crash drivers and 97.9% of the controls provided a valid BAC specimen. RESULTS: When adjusted for covariates and nonparticipation bias, increases in relative risk were observed at BACs of .04-.05, and the elevations in risk became very pronounced when BACs exceeded .10. DISCUSSION: The results provide strong support for .08 per se laws and for state policies that increase sanctions for BACs in excess of .15. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: This study provides further precision on the deleterious effects of alcohol on driving and, by implication, on other complex tasks.

Evaluation of a high visibility enforcement project focused on passenger vehicles interacting with commercial vehicles.

INTRODUCTION: In 2004, Washington State applied NHTSA's High Visibility Enforcement model used in the Click It or Ticket seat belt campaign in an attempt to reduce unsafe driving behaviors around commercial motor vehicles (CMVs). The program was called Ticketing Aggressive Cars and Trucks (TACT). This paper details the methods used to evaluate the program's effectiveness and the results of the evaluation. METHOD: Four high-crash interstate highway corridors, each approximately 25 miles in length, were selected. Two of these corridors received TACT media messages and increased enforcement over an 18-month period while two comparison corridors did not receive any increased media or enforcement. RESULTS: A total of 4,737 contacts were made with drivers during the two enforcement waves, and 72% of these contacts led to a citation. Drivers at the intervention sites who said they saw or heard any of the TACT messages increased from 17.7% in the pre period to a high of 67.3% in the post periods. Drivers at the intervention sites also reported increased exposure to the core message of leaving more space when passing trucks (14% pre to 40% post period). The percentage of drivers who said they leave more room when passing trucks than when passing cars rose from 16% in the pre period to 24% in the post period at the intervention sites, while comparison sites showed no change. Over 150 hours of video recorded by law enforcement officers in unmarked vehicles were utilized to examine violation rates and severity of violations before and after the intervention campaigns. Statistical analyses showed that violation rates were reduced significantly at the intervention sites (between 23% and 46%), while remaining constant at the comparison sites. Analyses of the video data also showed that the seriousness of the residual violations at the intervention sites decreased. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the evaluation results provide a consistent picture of the effectiveness of the TACT pilot project. Success was demonstrated at every step - messages were received and understood, knowledge was changed in the intended direction, self reported driving behavior around large trucks improved, and observed driving behaviors confirmed the self reports. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: After this initial success in Washington State, the TACT model will continue to be implemented and evaluated by FMCSA in an attempt to validate the program. Based on the results of this study and the consistent positive results found for other sTEP projects, it is likely that TACT will show continued success in a variety of settings and will help reduce the number and severity of crashes involving CMVs. Future research should attempt to use many of the methods described here to further validate the methods for not only evaluations of TACT programs, but also for any other highway safety programs that require measurements of the program's effectiveness.

The relationship between blood alcohol concentration (BAC), age, and crash risk.

PROBLEM: The role of age (youth and driving inexperience) and alcohol as major risk factors in traffic crash causation has been firmly established by numerous studies over the past 50 years. Less well established is how the two variables interrelate to influence crash risk. Some investigations have hypothesized an interactive or synergistic effect in which young drivers with less experience and a greater tendency to take risks are more adversely affected at lower blood alcohol concentrations (BACs) than are older drivers. The evidence for this hypothesis is mixed. Resolution of this issue has important implication for developing countermeasures directed at the young driver crash problem. METHOD: Case control data previously collected in Long Beach and Fort Lauderdale were reanalyzed using a more sensitive method for detecting interaction effects than used in the original analysis. A conditional logistic regression analyses found a highly significant agexBAC interaction (P<.0001) involving differences between drivers under 21 and those 21 and older. DISCUSSION: The results clearly indicate that positive BACs in drivers under 21 are associated with higher relative crash risks than would be predicted from the additive effect of BAC and age. It is likely that two mechanisms are operating to cause the interaction. First, it seems likely that the crash avoidance skill of young novice drivers would be more adversely affected by alcohol due to their driving inexperience, immaturity, and less experience with alcohol. Second, drivers under 21 who choose to drink and to drive after drinking probably have pre-existing characteristics that predisposed them to risk taking and crash involvement apart from any increased vulnerability to alcohol impairment. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The results support increased enforcement of zero-tolerance BAC laws for minors.

Problem driver remediation: a meta-analysis of the driver improvement literature.

PROBLEM: Given the public safety risk posed by violation and crash repeaters and the substantial costs for state driver improvement programs, it is important that their effectiveness be scientifically demonstrated and that intervention programs are based on sound research findings. METHOD: Crash and traffic violation standardized effect sizes (d) representing 106 individual interventions were coded from 35 methodologically sound studies and analyzed using meta-analysis. RESULTS: Driver improvement intervention in general was associated with small but significant reductions in both crashes (dw = 0.03) and violations (dw = 0.06). Significant effects were found on both measures for warning letters, group meetings, individual hearings, and license suspense/revocation. Of the driver improvement interventions studied, license suspension/revocation was by far the most effective treatment for both crashes and violations (dw = 0.11 and 0.19). Since one of the objectives of license suspension/revocation is to eliminate driving for the period of suspension, it is possible that much or all of the effect is due to reduced exposure and/or more careful driving during the suspension interval. Results were mixed for other types of interventions, although distributing educational or informational material was not associated with any reductions. Interventions associated with violation reduction tended to also be associated with crash reduction, although the relationship was not very strong (r = .30). DISCUSSION: Although interpretation of the effect size estimates was complicated by almost ubiquitous heterogeneity, the results do suggest an overall positive impact of driver improvement interventions in general. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The results support the continued use of driver improvement interventions, chiefly warning letters, group meetings, individual hearings, and especially license suspension/revocation. The results also suggest that court-triggered traffic violator programs are less effective than interventions triggered by drivers license agencies.

Using traffic conviction correlates to identify high accident-risk drivers.

One of the primary missions of the California Department of Motor Vehicles is to protect the public from drivers who represent unacceptably high accident risks. Optimum fulfillment of this objective requires the development and implementation of strategies for identifying high-risk drivers. One such system in California is the department's negligent operator point system. This system assigns points to moving violations and accidents and authorizes the department to take driver control actions against drivers who meet the prima facie definition of a negligent operator. The present study explored the viability of predicting accidents from equations constructed to predict convictions for the general driving population. Equations or models that better identify drivers at increased risk of future accident involvement would increase the number of accidents prevented through post license control actions. Although the results did not support prior findings that equations keyed to citations do as well as or better than equations keyed to accidents in predicting subsequent accident involvement, a canonical correlation approach considering subsequent accident and citation rates simultaneously produced a 14.9% improvement in the classification accuracy or "hit rate" for identifying accident-involved drivers.

Graduated driver licensing and safer driving.

Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) inserts between the leaner permit and full licensure an intermediate or "provisional" license that allows novices to drive unsupervised but subject to provisions intended to reduce the risks that accompany entry into highway traffic. Introduction of GDL has been followed by lowered accident rates, resulting from both limiting exposure of novices to unsafe situations and by helping them to deal with them more safely. Sources of safer driving include extended learning, early intervention, contingent advancement, and multistage instruction. To extend the learning process, most GDL systems lengthen the duration of the learner phase and require a specified level of adult-supervised driving. Results indicate that extended learning can reduce accidents substantially if well structured and highly controlled. Early intervention with novice traffic violators have shown both a general deterrent effect upon novice violators facing suspension and a specific effect upon those who have experienced it. Making advancement to full licensure contingent upon a violation-free record when driving on the provisional license has also evidenced a reduction in accidents and violations during that phase of licensure. Multistage instruction attempts development of advanced skills only after novices have had a chance to master more basic skills. Although this element of GDL has yet to be evaluated, research indicates crash reduction is possible in situations where it does not increase exposure to risk. While the various elements of GDL have demonstrated potential benefit in enhancing the safety of novice drivers, considerable improvement in the nature and enforcement of GDL requirements is needed to realize that potential.