ABSTRACT
AIMS: Despite notable population differences in high-income and low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), national guidelines in LMICs often recommend using US-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk scores for treatment decisions. We examined the performance of widely used international CVD risk scores within the largest Brazilian community-based cohort study (Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health, ELSA-Brasil). METHODS: All adults 40-75 years from ELSA-Brasil (2008-2013) without prior CVD who were followed for incident, adjudicated CVD events (fatal and non-fatal MI, stroke, or coronary heart disease death). We evaluated 5 scores-Framingham General Risk (FGR), Pooled Cohort Equations (PCEs), WHO CVD score, Globorisk-LAC and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2 score (SCORE-2). We assessed their discrimination using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration with predicted-to-observed risk (P/O) ratios-overall and by sex/race groups. RESULTS: There were 12 155 individuals (53.0±8.2 years, 55.3% female) who suffered 149 incident CVD events. All scores had a model AUC>0.7 overall and for most age/sex groups, except for white women, where AUC was <0.6 for all scores, with higher overestimation in this subgroup. All risk scores overestimated CVD risk with 32%-170% overestimation across scores. PCE and FGR had the highest overestimation (P/O ratio: 2.74 (95% CI 2.42 to 3.06)) and 2.61 (95% CI 1.79 to 3.43)) and the recalibrated WHO score had the best calibration (P/O ratio: 1.32 (95% CI 1.12 to 1.48)). CONCLUSION: In a large prospective cohort from Brazil, we found that widely accepted CVD risk scores overestimate risk by over twofold, and have poor risk discrimination particularly among Brazilian women. Our work highlights the value of risk stratification strategies tailored to the unique populations and risks of LMICs.
