Exome Sequencing for Prenatal Detection of Genetic Abnormalities in Fetal Ultrasound Anomalies: An Economic Evaluation.

INTRODUCTION: In light of the prospective Prenatal Assessment of Genomes and Exomes (PAGE) study, this paper aimed to determine the additional costs of using exome sequencing (ES) alongside or in place of chromosomal microarray (CMA) in a fetus with an identified congenital anomaly. METHODS: A decision tree was populated using data from a prospective cohort of women undergoing invasive diagnostic testing. Four testing strategies were evaluated: CMA, ES, CMA followed by ES ("stepwise"); CMA and ES combined. RESULTS: When ES is priced at GBP 2,100 (EUR 2,407/USD 2,694), performing ES alone prenatally would cost a further GBP 31,410 (EUR 36,001/USD 40,289) per additional genetic diagnosis, whereas the stepwise would cost a further GBP 24,657 (EUR 28,261/USD 31,627) per additional genetic diagnosis. When ES is priced at GBP 966 (EUR 1,107/USD 1,239), performing ES alone prenatally would cost a further GBP 11,532 (EUR 13,217/USD 14,792) per additional genetic diagnosis, whereas the stepwise would cost a further additional GBP 11,639 (EUR 13,340/USD 14,929) per additional genetic diagnosis. The sub-group analysis suggests that performing stepwise on cases indicative of multiple anomalies at ultrasound scan (USS) compared to cases indicative of a single anomaly, is more cost-effective compared to using ES alone. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION: Performing ES alongside CMA is more cost-effective than ES alone, which can potentially lead to improvements in pregnancy management. The direct effects of test results on pregnancy outcomes were not examined; therefore, further research is recommended to examine changes on the projected incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

Forecast of Healthcare Facilities and Health Workforce Requirements for the Public Sector in Ghana, 2016-2026.

BACKGROUND: Ghana is implementing activities towards universal health coverage (UHC) as well as the attainment of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by the health sector by the year 2030. Aside lack of empirical forecast of the required healthcare facilities to achieve these mandates, health workforce deficits are also a major threat. We therefore modelled the needed healthcare facilities in Ghana and translated it into year-by-year staffing requirements based on established staffing standards. METHODS: Two levels of modelling were used. First, a predictive model based on Markov processes was used to estimate the future healthcare facilities needed in Ghana. Second, the projected healthcare facilities were translated into aggregate staffing requirements using staffing standards developed by Ghana's Ministry of Health (MoH). RESULTS: The forecast shows a need to expand the number/capacity of healthcare facilities in order to attain UHC. All things being equal, the requisite healthcare infrastructure for UHC would be attainable from 2023. The forecast also shows wide variations in staffing-need-availability rate, ranging from 15% to 94% (average being 68%) across the various staff types. Thus, there are serious shortages of staff which are worse amongst specialists. CONCLUSION: Ghana needs to expand and/or increase the number of healthcare facilities to facilitate the attainment of UHC. Also, only about 68% of the health workforce (HWF) requirements are employed and available for service delivery, leaving serious shortages of the essential health professionals. Immediate recruitment of unemployed but qualified health workers is therefore imperative. Also, addressing health worker productivity, equitable distribution of existing workers, and attrition may be the immediate steps to take whilst a long-term commitment to comprehensively address HWF challenges, including recruitments, expansion and streamlining of HWF training, is pursued.

Applications of the Capability Approach in the Health Field: A Literature Review.

The primary aims of this review are to document capability applications in the health field and to explore the objectives and decision-rules of studies measuring capability more broadly. Relevant studies are identified using a literature search strategy known as "comprehensive pearl growing". All studies with a primary focus on health are assessed individually, whilst a summary narrative analysis of the full review examines the objectives of capability studies. Four distinct groups in the health field are identified in the review: (1) physical activity and diet; (2) patient empowerment; (3) multidimensional poverty and (4) assessments of health and social care interventions. Different approaches to applying mixed methods, selecting capability dimensions and weighting capabilities are found across studies. There is a noticeable non-reliance on health status as a sole indicator of capability in health. In terms of objectives of studies measuring capability, although there is a lack of consistency, an objective related to sufficiency of capabilities appeared most often in the studies found in this review. Even though one of the appeals of the capability perspective is its underspecified nature, this review highlights the challenge of finding a coherent alternative to more established approaches of evaluation.

Adjusting Estimates of the Expected Value of Information for Implementation: Theoretical Framework and Practical Application.

BACKGROUND: Value of information (VoI) calculations give the expected benefits of decision making under perfect information (EVPI) or sample information (EVSI), typically on the premise that any treatment recommendations made in light of this information will be implemented instantly and fully. This assumption is unlikely to hold in health care; evidence shows that obtaining further information typically leads to "improved" rather than "perfect" implementation. OBJECTIVES: To present a method of calculating the expected value of further research that accounts for the reality of improved implementation. METHODS: This work extends an existing conceptual framework by introducing additional states of the world regarding information (sample information, in addition to current and perfect information) and implementation (improved implementation, in addition to current and optimal implementation). The extension allows calculating the "implementation-adjusted" EVSI (IA-EVSI), a measure that accounts for different degrees of implementation. Calculations of implementation-adjusted estimates are illustrated under different scenarios through a stylized case study in non-small cell lung cancer. RESULTS: In the particular case study, the population values for EVSI and IA-EVSI were £ 25 million and £ 8 million, respectively; thus, a decision assuming perfect implementation would have overestimated the expected value of research by about £ 17 million. IA-EVSI was driven by the assumed time horizon and, importantly, the specified rate of change in implementation: the higher the rate, the greater the IA-EVSI and the lower the difference between IA-EVSI and EVSI. CONCLUSIONS: Traditionally calculated measures of population VoI rely on unrealistic assumptions about implementation. This article provides a simple framework that accounts for improved, rather than perfect, implementation and offers more realistic estimates of the expected value of research.

A Practical Application of Value of Information and Prospective Payback of Research to Prioritize Evaluative Research.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Efforts to ensure that funded research represents "value for money" have led to increasing calls for the use of analytic methods in research prioritization. A number of analytic approaches have been proposed to assist research funding decisions, the most prominent of which are value of information (VOI) and prospective payback of research (PPoR). Despite the increasing interest in the topic, there are insufficient VOI and PPoR applications on the same case study to contrast their methods and compare their outcomes. We undertook VOI and PPoR analyses to determine the value of conducting 2 proposed research programs. The application served as a vehicle for identifying differences and similarities between the methods, provided insight into the assumptions and practical requirements of undertaking prospective analyses for research prioritization, and highlighted areas for future research. METHODS: VOI and PPoR were applied to case studies representing proposals for clinical trials in advanced non-small-cell lung cancer and prostate cancer. Decision models were built to synthesize the evidence available prior to the funding decision. VOI (expected value of perfect and sample information) and PPoR (PATHS model) analyses were undertaken using the developed models. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: VOI and PPoR results agreed in direction, suggesting that the proposed trials would be cost-effective investments. However, results differed in magnitude, largely due to the way each method conceptualizes the possible outcomes of further research and the implementation of research results in practice. Compared with VOI, PPoR is less complex but requires more assumptions. Although the approaches are not free from limitations, they can provide useful input for research funding decisions.

Assessing sufficient capability: A new approach to economic evaluation.

Amartya Sen's capability approach has been discussed widely in the health economics discipline. Although measures have been developed to assess capability in economic evaluation, there has been much less attention paid to the decision rules that might be applied alongside. Here, new methods, drawing on the multidimensional poverty and health economics literature, are developed for conducting economic evaluation within the capability approach and focusing on an objective of achieving "sufficient capability". This objective more closely reflects the concern with equity that pervades the capability approach and the method has the advantage of retaining the longitudinal aspect of estimating outcome that is associated with quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), whilst also drawing on notions of shortfall associated with assessments of poverty. Economic evaluation from this perspective is illustrated in an osteoarthritis patient group undergoing joint replacement, with capability wellbeing assessed using ICECAP-O. Recommendations for taking the sufficient capability approach forward are provided.

BAC chromosomal microarray for prenatal detection of chromosome anomalies in fetal ultrasound anomalies: an economic evaluation.

INTRODUCTION: To determine the cost-effectiveness of prenatal chromosomal microarray (CMA) when performed for structural anomalies on fetal ultrasound scan over conventional techniques. METHOD: A decision tree was populated using data from a prospective cohort of women undergoing testing when a fetal ultrasound scan showed a structural abnormality. Nine strategies of testing were modeled including combinations of the tests: QFPCR, G-band karyotyping, CMA and FISH for DiGeorge (22q) microdeletion. RESULTS: When CMA costs GBP 405 and using a 1-Mb BAC array it would cost GBP 24,600 for every additional case detected by CMA over a combination of QFPCR, followed by G-band karyotype, followed lastly by FISH (for DiGeorge syndrome). If CMA is performed instead of conventional karyotyping alone it costs GBP 33,000 for every additional case detected. However, if the cost of CMA is reduced to GBP 360 than when CMA is performed instead of conventional karyotyping alone it would cost GBP 9,768 for every additional case detected. DISCUSSION: The use of a prenatal BAC CMA is not currently cost-effective when compared to other testing strategies. However, as CMA costs decrease and resolution (and detection rates) increase it is likely to become the cost-effective option of the future.

Cost-effectiveness of diagnostic strategies for the management of abnormal uterine bleeding (heavy menstrual bleeding and post-menopausal bleeding): a decision analysis.

BACKGROUND: Heavy menstrual bleeding (HMB) and post-menopausal bleeding (PMB) together constitute the commonest gynaecological presentation in secondary care and impose substantial demands on health service resources. Accurate diagnosis is of key importance to realising effective treatment, reducing morbidity and, in the case of PMB, reducing mortality. There are many tests available, including transvaginal scan (TVS), endometrial biopsy (EBx), saline infusion sonography and outpatient hysteroscopy (OPH); however, optimal diagnostic work-up is unclear. OBJECTIVES: To determine the most cost-effective diagnostic testing strategy for the diagnosis and treatment of (i) HMB and (ii) PMB. DATA SOURCES: Parameter inputs were derived from systematic quantitative reviews, individual patient data (IPD) from existing data sets and focused searches for specific data. In the absence of data estimates, the consensus view of an expert clinical panel was obtained. METHODS: Two clinically informed decision-analytic models were constructed to reflect current service provision for the diagnostic work-up of women presenting with HMB and PMB. The model-based economic evaluation took the form of a cost-effectiveness analysis from the perspective of the NHS in a contemporary, 'one-stop' secondary care clinical setting, where all indicated testing modalities would be available during a single visit. RESULTS: Two potentially cost-effective testing strategies for the initial investigation of women with HMB were identified: OPH alone or in combination with EBx. Although a combination testing strategy of OPH + EBx was marginally more effective, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was approximately £21,000 to gain one more satisfied patient, whereas for OPH it was just £360 when compared with treatment with the levonorgestrel intrauterine system (LNG-IUS) without investigation. Initial testing with OPH was the most cost-effective testing approach for women wishing to preserve fertility and for women with symptoms refractory to empirical treatment with a LNG-IUS. For the investigation of PMB, selective use of TVS based on historical risk prediction for the diagnostic work-up of women presenting with PMB generated an ICER compared with our reference strategy of 'no initial work-up' of £129,000 per extra woman surviving 5 years. The ICERs for the two other non-dominated testing strategies, combining history and TVS or combining OPH and TVS, were over £2M each. LIMITATIONS: In the absence of IPD, estimates of accuracy for test combinations presented some uncertainty where test results were modelled as being discordant. CONCLUSIONS: For initial investigation of women presenting to secondary care with HMB who do not require preservation of their fertility, our research suggests a choice between OPH alone or a combination of OPH and EBx. From our investigation, OPH appears to be the optimal first-line diagnostic test used for the investigation of women presenting to secondary care with HMB wishing to preserve their fertility or refractory to previous medical treatment with the LNG-IUS. We would suggest that the current recommendation of basing the initial investigation of women with PMB on the universal TVS measurement of endometrial thickness at a 5-mm threshold may need to be replaced by a strategy of restricting TVS to women with risk factors (e.g. increasing age-raised body mass index, diabetes or nulliparity), obtained from the preceding clinical assessment. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Predicting the ICECAP-O capability index from the WOMAC osteoarthritis index: is mapping onto capability from condition-specific health status questionnaires feasible?

BACKGROUND: There is a growing interest in the application of the capability approach in health economic analysis. The aim of the research reported here is to assess the feasibility of mapping from a condition-specific questionnaire (Western Ontario and McMaster Universities [WOMAC] Osteoarthritis Index) to a capability well-being questionnaire (ICEpop CAPability measure for Older people [ICECAP-O]). METHODS: . One hundred five osteoarthritis patients requiring joint replacement completed the 5 attributes on the ICECAP-O (attachment, security, role, enjoyment, and control) and the 3 WOMAC categories (pain, stiffness, and physical function). The prediction data set consisted of baseline scores, whereas follow-up data were used to validate the predictions. The mapping algorithms used ordinary least squares and multinomial logistic regression models to predict the relationship between WOMAC scores, categories, or items and ICECAP-O scores or the 5 ICECAP-O attributes. RESULTS: . ICECAP-O scores predicted from WOMAC category scores produced the lowest mapping error statistics (mean absolute error = 0.0832; mean squared error = 0.0142) as well as highest goodness of fit (R(2) = 0.3976). Prediction of ICECAP-O attributes from WOMAC category scores was possible for the majority of capability dimensions. The "control" attribute and physical function WOMAC category exhibited the strongest relationship (R(2) = 0.2143). The "attachment" attribute proved difficult to predict from any WOMAC category, which is in line with intuition given this attribute captures psychological well-being rather than pain, stiffness, or physical function. CONCLUSION: . This is the first study to investigate the predictive ability of a condition-specific measure of health onto capability. The results presented here suggest it is feasible to map from condition-specific measures to an overall capability index, although WOMAC cannot predict individual capability in its entirety. Although the results here are encouraging for those interested in using ICECAP-O, given the small validation sample size applied, further research will be required to verify these findings.

The REFER (REFer for EchocaRdiogram) protocol: a prospective validation of a clinical decision rule, NT-proBNP, or their combination, in the diagnosis of heart failure in primary care. Rationale and design.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure is a major cause of mortality and morbidity. As mortality rates are high, it is important that patients seen by general practitioners with symptoms suggestive of heart failure are identified quickly and treated appropriately. Identifying patients with heart failure or deciding which patients need further tests is a challenge. All patients with suspected heart failure should be diagnosed using objective tests such as echocardiography, but it is expensive, often delayed, and limited by the significant skill shortage of trained echocardiographers. Alternative approaches for diagnosing heart failure are currently limited. Clinical decision tools that combine clinical signs, symptoms or patient characteristics are designed to be used to support clinical decision-making and validated according to strict methodological procedures. The REFER Study aims to determine the accuracy and cost-effectiveness of our previously derived novel, simple clinical decision rule, a natriuretic peptide assay, or their combination, in the triage for referral for echocardiography of symptomatic adult patients who present in general practice with symptoms suggestive of heart failure. METHODS/DESIGN: This is a prospective, Phase II observational, diagnostic validation study of a clinical decision rule, natriuretic peptides or their combination, for diagnosing heart failure in primary care. Consecutive adult primary care patients 55 years of age or over presenting to their general practitioner with a chief complaint of recent new onset shortness of breath, lethargy or peripheral ankle oedema of over 48 hours duration, with no obvious recurrent, acute or self-limiting cause will be enrolled. Our reference standard is based upon a three step expert specialist consensus using echocardiography and clinical variables and tests. DISCUSSION: Our clinical decision rule offers a potential solution to the diagnostic challenge of providing a timely and accurate diagnosis of heart failure in primary care. Study results will provide an evidence-base from which to develop heart failure care pathway recommendations and may be useful in standardising care. If demonstrated to be effective, the clinical decision rule will be of interest to researchers, policy makers and general practitioners worldwide. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN17635379.

Experiences of outreach workers in promoting smoking cessation to Bangladeshi and Pakistani men: longitudinal qualitative evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Despite having high smoking rates, there have been few tailored cessation programmes for male Bangladeshi and Pakistani smokers in the UK. We report on a qualitative evaluation of a community-based, outreach worker delivered, intervention that aimed to increase uptake of NHS smoking cessation services and tailor services to meet the needs of Bangladeshi and Pakistani men. METHODS: This was a longitudinal, qualitative study, nested within a phase II cluster randomised controlled trial of a complex intervention. We explored the perspectives and experiences of five outreach workers, two stop smoking service managers and a specialist stop smoking advisor. Data were collected through focus group discussions, weekly diaries, observations of management meetings, shadowing of outreach workers, and one-to-one interviews with outreach workers and their managers. Analysis was undertaken using a modified Framework approach. RESULTS: Outreach workers promoted cessation services by word of mouth on the streets, in health service premises, in local businesses and at a wide range of community events. They emphasised the reasons for cessation, especially health effects, financial implications, and the impact of smoking on the family. Many smokers agreed to be referred to cessation services, but few attended, this in part being explained by concerns about the relative inflexibility of existing service provision. Although outreach workers successfully expanded service reach, they faced the challenges of perceived lack of awareness of the health risks associated with smoking in older smokers and apathy in younger smokers. These were compounded by perceptions of "lip service" being given to their role by community organisations and tensions both amongst the outreach workers and with the wider management team. CONCLUSIONS: Outreach workers expanded reach of the service through taking it to diverse locations of relevance to Pakistani and Bangladeshi communities. The optimum method of outreach to retain and treat Bangladeshi and Pakistani smokers effectively in cessation programmes needs further development.

An economic evaluation of alternative test-intervention strategies to prevent spontaneous pre-term birth in singleton pregnancies.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the potential cost-effectiveness of alternative 'test-and-treat' strategies in the prevention of spontaneous pre-term birth before 34 and 37 weeks' gestation. DESIGN: Model-based economic evaluation. Setting. Clinics, general practices, health centers or any setting delivering antenatal care. POPULATION: Asymptomatic women in early pregnancy and symptomatic women with threatened pre-term labor in later pregnancy. METHODS: Data from systematic reviews of effectiveness and accuracy were combined into strategies and analyzed using a decision-tree model. Full deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were carried out. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Spontaneous pre-term labor avoided for asymptomatic women and spontaneous pre-term birth avoided for symptomatic women. RESULTS: The systematic reviews identified evidence on the accuracy of 22 types of tests and on the effectiveness of 40 possible interventions. Cost data were based on secondary evidence, supplemented with primary data from local sources. Testing prior to intervention was not shown to be the most cost-effective strategy in the main analyses for 34 and 37 weeks. Prophylactic fish oil in asymptomatic women, without prior testing, was highlighted as potentially cost-effective in preventing threatened pre-term labor before 34 weeks. In symptomatic women with a viable pregnancy, indomethacin without prior testing was a potentially cost-effective strategy to prevent pre-term birth occurring before 37 weeks. CONCLUSION: An effective, affordable and safe intervention applied to all mothers without prior testing is likely to be the most cost-effective strategy in the prevention of spontaneous pre-term labor and birth. The results reported in this paper are important for prioritizing future research, world-wide.

A second-order simulation model of the cost-effectiveness of managing dyspepsia in the United States.

BACKGROUND: The "gold-standard'' evidence of effectiveness for a clinical practice guideline is the randomized controlled trial (RCT), although RCTs have a limited ability to explore potential management strategies for a chronic disease where these interact over time. Modeling can be used to fill this gap, and models have become increasingly complex, with both dynamic sampling and representation of second-order uncertainty to provide more precise estimates. However, both simulation modeling and probabilistic sensitivity analysis are rarely used together. The objective of this study was to explore uncertainty in controversial areas of the 2005 American Gastroenterology Association position statement on the management of dyspepsia. METHODS: Individual sampling model, incorporating a second-order probabilistic sensitivity analysis. POPULATION: US adult patients presenting in primary care with dyspepsia. Interventions compared: empirical acid suppression, test and treat for Helicobacter pylori, initial endoscopy, acid suppression then endoscopy, test and treat then proton pump inhibitor (PPI) then endoscopy. OUTCOMES: Cost-effectiveness, quality-adjusted life years, and costs in US dollars from a societal perspective, measured over a 5-year period. DATA SOURCES: mainly Cochrane meta-analyses. RESULTS: Endoscopy was dominated at all ages by other strategies. PPI therapy was the most cost-effective strategy in 30-year-olds with a low prevalence of H. pylori. In 60-year-olds, H. pylori test and treat was the most cost-effective option. CONCLUSIONS: Acid suppression alone was more cost-effective than either endoscopy or H. pylori test and treat in younger dyspepsia patients with a low prevalence of infection.

Cost effectiveness of home based population screening for Chlamydia trachomatis in the UK: economic evaluation of chlamydia screening studies (ClaSS) project.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the cost effectiveness of screening for Chlamydia trachomatis compared with a policy of no organised screening in the United Kingdom. DESIGN: Economic evaluation using a transmission dynamic mathematical model. SETTING: Central and southwest England. PARTICIPANTS: Hypothetical population of 50,000 men and women, in which all those aged 16-24 years were invited to be screened each year. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cost effectiveness based on major outcomes averted, defined as pelvic inflammatory disease, ectopic pregnancy, infertility, or neonatal complications. RESULTS: The incremental cost per major outcome averted for a programme of screening women only (assuming eight years of screening) was 22,300 pounds (33,000 euros; $45,000) compared with no organised screening. For a programme screening both men and women, the incremental cost effectiveness ratio was approximately 28,900 pounds. Pelvic inflammatory disease leading to hospital admission was the most frequently averted major outcome. The model was highly sensitive to the incidence of major outcomes and to uptake of screening. When both were increased the cost effectiveness ratio fell to 6200 pound per major outcome averted for screening women only. CONCLUSIONS: Proactive register based screening for chlamydia is not cost effective if the uptake of screening and incidence of complications are based on contemporary empirical studies, which show lower rates than commonly assumed. These data are relevant to discussions about the cost effectiveness of the opportunistic model of chlamydia screening being introduced in England.

Partner notification of chlamydia infection in primary care: randomised controlled trial and analysis of resource use.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of a practice nurse led strategy to improve the notification and treatment of partners of people with chlamydia infection. DESIGN: Randomised controlled trial. SETTING: 27 general practices in the Bristol and Birmingham areas. PARTICIPANTS: 140 men and women with chlamydia (index cases) diagnosed by screening of a home collected urine sample or vulval swab specimen. INTERVENTIONS: Partner notification at the general practice immediately after diagnosis by trained practice nurses, with telephone follow up by a health adviser; or referral to a specialist health adviser at a genitourinary medicine clinic. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome was the proportion of index cases with at least one treated sexual partner. Specified secondary outcomes included the number of sexual contacts elicited during a sexual history, positive test result for chlamydia six weeks after treatment, and the cost of each strategy in 2003 sterling prices. RESULTS: 65.3% (47/72) of participants receiving practice nurse led partner notification had at least one partner treated compared with 52.9% (39/68) of those referred to a genitourinary medicine clinic (risk difference 12.4%, 95% confidence interval -1.8% to 26.5%). Of 68 participants referred to the clinic, 21 (31%) did not attend. The costs per index case were 32.55 pounds sterling for the practice nurse led strategy and 32.62 pounds sterling for the specialist referral strategy. CONCLUSION: Practice based partner notification by trained nurses with telephone follow up by health advisers is at least as effective as referral to a specialist health adviser at a genitourinary medicine clinic, and costs the same. Trial registration Clinical trials: NCT00112255.