ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The 2012 Guidelines for Diagnosis and Management of Patients with Stable Ischemic Heart Disease recommend intensive antianginal and risk factor treatment (optimal medical management [OMT]) before considering revascularization to relieve symptoms. The Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation 2 Diabetes (BARI 2D) trial randomized patients with ischemic heart disease and anatomy suitable to revascularization to (1) initial OMT with revascularization if needed or (2) initial revascularization plus OMT and found no difference in major cardiovascular events. Ultimately, however, 37.9% of the OMT group was revascularized during the 5-year follow-up period. METHODS: Data from the 1192 patients randomized to OMT were analyzed to identify subgroups in which the incidence of revascularization was so high that direct revascularization without a trial period could be justified. Multivariate logistic analysis, Cox regression models of baseline data, and a landmark analysis of participants who did not undergo revascularization at 6 months were constructed. RESULTS: The models that used only data available at the time of study entry had limited predictive value for revascularization by 6 months or by 5 years; however, the model incorporating severity of angina during the first 6 months could better predict revascularization (C statistic = 0.789). CONCLUSIONS: With the possible exception of patients with severe angina and proximal left anterior descending artery disease, this analysis supports the recommendation of the 2012 guidelines for a trial of OMT before revascularization. Patients could not be identified at the time of catheterization, but a short period of close follow-up during OMT identified the nearly 40% of patients who underwent revascularization.