ABSTRACT
The development of detailed national pathways towards sustainable food and land systems aims to provide stakeholders with clarity on how long-term goals could be achieved and to reduce roadblocks in the way to making commitments. However, the inability to perfectly capture the relationships between all variables in a system and the unknown probability of future values (deep uncertainty) makes it very difficult to design scenarios that account for the full breadth of system uncertainty. Here we use scenario discovery to systematically explore the effect of different parameter ranges on model outputs, and design resilient pathways to sustainability in which multiple target achievement requires a broad portfolio of solutions. We use a model of the Australian food and land system, the FABLE (Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land-use, Energy) Calculator, to investigate conditions for achieving a sustainable Australian food and land system under scenarios based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 1, 2, and 3 narratives. Here we link the FABLE Calculator with a Monte Carlo simulation tool to explore hundreds of thousands of scenarios. This allows us to identify the ranges of systemic drivers that achieve multiple sustainability targets around diets, net forest growth, agricultural water consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity conservation, and exports by 2050. Our results show that livestock productivity and density, afforestation, and dietary change are powerful influencers for sustainability target achievement. Around 10% of the SSP1 scenarios could achieve all modelled sustainability targets. However, practically none of the scenarios based on SSP2 and SSP3 narratives could achieve such targets. The results suggest that there are options to achieve a more sustainable and resilient Australian food and land-use system with better socio-economic and environmental outcomes than under current trends. However, its achievement requires significant structural changes and coordinated interventions in several components of the domestic food and land system to increase its resilience and environmental and socio-economic performance. Understanding the bounds within which this system needs to change and operate to achieve sustainability targets will enable greater clarity and flexibility during discussions between decision-makers and stakeholders. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-022-01202-2.
ABSTRACT
Particle therapy relies on the advantageous dose deposition which permits to highly conform the dose to the target and better spare the surrounding healthy tissues and organs at risk with respect to conventional radiotherapy. In the case of treatments with heavier ions (like carbon ions already clinically used), another advantage is the enhanced radiobiological effectiveness due to high linear energy transfer radiation. These particle therapy advantages are unfortunately not thoroughly exploited due to particle range uncertainties. The possibility to monitor the compliance between the ongoing and prescribed dose distribution is a crucial step toward new optimizations in treatment planning and adaptive therapy. The Positron Emission Tomography (PET) is an established quantitative 3D imaging technique for particle treatment verification and, among the isotopes used for PET imaging, the 11C has gained more attention from the scientific and clinical communities for its application as new radioactive projectile for particle therapy. This is an interesting option clinically because of an enhanced imaging potential, without dosimetry drawbacks; technically, because the stable isotope 12C is successfully already in use in clinics. The MEDICIS-Promed network led an initiative to study the possible technical solutions for the implementation of 11C radioisotopes in an accelerator-based particle therapy center. We present here the result of this study, consisting in a Technical Design Report for a 11C Treatment Facility. The clinical usefulness is reviewed based on existing experimental data, complemented by Monte Carlo simulations using the FLUKA code. The technical analysis starts from reviewing the layout and results of the facilities which produced 11C beams in the past, for testing purposes. It then focuses on the elaboration of the feasible upgrades of an existing 12C particle therapy center, to accommodate the production of 11C beams for therapy. The analysis covers the options to produce the 11C atoms in sufficient amounts (as required for therapy), to ionize them as required by the existing accelerator layouts, to accelerate and transport them to the irradiation rooms. The results of the analysis and the identified challenges define the possible implementation scenario and timeline.
