The "SALPARE study" of spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage-part 2-early CT predictors of outcome in ICH: keeping it simple.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic role of hematoma characteristics and hematoma expansion (HE) in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). METHODS: This multicenter prospective cohort study enrolled consecutive adult patients with non-traumatic ICH admitted to three Italian academic hospitals (Salerno, Padova, Reggio Emilia) over a 2-year period. Early noncontrast CT (NCCT) features of the hematoma, including markers of HE, and 3-month outcome were recorded. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of poor outcome. RESULTS: A total of 682 patients were included in the study [mean age: 73 ± 14 years; 316 (46.3%) females]. Pontine and massive hemorrhage, intraventricular bleeding, baseline hematoma volume > 15 mL, blend sign, swirl sign, margin irregularity ≥ 4, density heterogeneity ≥ 3, hypodensity ≥ 1, island sign, satellite sign, and black hole sign were associated with a higher risk of mortality and disability. However, at multivariate analysis only initial hematoma volume (OR 29.71) proved to be an independent predictor of poor functional outcome at 3 months. CONCLUSION: Simple hematoma volume measured on baseline CT best identifies patients with a worse outcome, while early NCCT markers of HE do not seem to add any clinically significant information.

Retrospective Evaluation and Significance of Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio Prior to and 1 month Following Microwave Ablation of Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

PURPOSE: Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) recently demonstrated predictive value for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after thermal ablation. Microwave ablation (MWA) has been shown to induce changes in the immune landscape after HCC treatment. This study aims at identifying predictors of local tumor progression (LTP) and post-treatment NLR kinetics after MWA. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from 108 consecutive patients who underwent percutaneous MWA of 119 HCCs with a 2450 Hz/100 W generator in two institutions from October 2014 to September 2021 were retrospectively reviewed. Forty-five HCCs (42 patients) met inclusion criteria for analysis (technique efficacy, pre- and post-treatment NLR availability, follow-up > 6 months, absence of complications). NLR was analyzed prior to therapy and at 1-month follow-up; difference between the two time points was defined as ΔNLR1stFU. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 25 months, LTP occurred in 18 HCCs (40%) and 18 patients (42.9%). Multivariate competing risk regression comprising ΔNLR1stFU > 0, cirrhosis etiology and subcapsular location showed that the only independent predictor of LTP was ΔNLR1stFU > 0, on both a per-patient (HR = 2.7, p = 0.049) and per-tumor (HR = 2.8, p = 0.047) analysis. ΔNLR1stFU > 0 occurred in 24/42 patients (57.1%). In this subgroup, higher rates of female patients (p = 0.026), higher mean baseline NLR (p < 0.0001) and lower mean energy/size (p = 0.006) were observed. Upon ROC curve analysis, energy/size < 1414 J/mm predicted ΔNLR1stFU > 0 with 76% sensitivity and 70% specificity (AUC = 0.74). CONCLUSION: NLR increase after ablation was the only independent predictor of LTP, supporting the role of balance between systemic inflammation and immunity in recurrence after MWA. Ablation energy/tumor size predicted NLR increase, reinforcing the concept of immune ablation. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: III.

A radiological predictor for pneumomediastinum/pneumothorax in COVID-19 ARDS patients.

PURPOSE: To determine whether Macklin effect (a linear collection of air contiguous to the bronchovascular sheath) on baseline CT imaging is an accurate predictor for subsequent pneumomediastinum (PMD)/pneumothorax (PNX) development in invasively ventilated patients with COVID-19-related acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). MATERIALS AND METHODS: This is an observational, case-control study. From a prospectively acquired database, all consecutive invasively ventilated COVID-19 ARDS patients who underwent at least one baseline chest CT scan during the study time period (February 25th, 2020-December 31st, 2020) were identified; those who had tracheal lesion or already had PMD/PNX at the time of the first available chest imaging were excluded. RESULTS: 37/173 (21.4%) patients enrolled had PMD/PNX; specifically, 20 (11.5%) had PMD, 10 (5.8%) PNX, 7 (4%) both. 33/37 patients with subsequent PMD/PNX had Macklin effect on baseline CT (89.2%, true positives) 8.5 days [range, 1-18] before the first actual radiological evidence of PMD/PNX. Conversely, 6/136 patients without PMD/PNX (4.4%, false positives) demonstrated Macklin effect (p < 0.001). Macklin effect yielded a sensitivity of 89.2% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 74.6-96.9), a specificity of 95.6% (95% CI: 90.6-98.4), a positive predictive value (PV) of 84.5% (95% CI: 71.3-92.3), a negative PV of 97.1% (95% CI: 74.6-96.9) and an accuracy of 94.2% (95% CI: 89.6-97.2) in predicting PMD/PNX (AUC:0.924). CONCLUSIONS: Macklin effect accurately predicts, 8.5 days in advance, PMD/PNX development in COVID-19 ARDS patients.

Predictors of Pneumothorax/Pneumomediastinum in Mechanically Ventilated COVID-19 Patients.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the incidence, predictors, and outcome of pneumothorax (PNX)/pneumomediastinum (PMD) in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING: Tertiary-care university hospital. PARTICIPANTS: One hundred sixteen consecutive critically ill, invasively ventilated patients with COVID-19 ARDS. INTERVENTIONS: The authors collected demographic, mechanical ventilation, imaging, laboratory, and outcome data. Primary outcome was the incidence of PNX/PMD. Multiple logistic regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of PNX/PMD. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: PNX/PMD occurred in a total of 28 patients (24.1%), with 22 patients developing PNX (19.0%) and 13 developing PMD (11.2%). Mean time to development of PNX/PMD was 14 ± 11 days from intubation. The authors found no significant difference in mechanical ventilation parameters between patients who developed PNX/PMD and those who did not. Mechanical ventilation parameters were within recommended limits for protective ventilation in both groups. Ninety-five percent of patients with PNX/PMD had the Macklin effect (linear collections of air contiguous to the bronchovascular sheaths) on a baseline computed tomography scan, and tended to have a higher lung involvement at intensive care unit (ICU) admission (Radiographic Assessment of Lung Edema score 32.2 ± 13.4 v 18.7 ± 9.8 in patients without PNX/PMD, p = 0.08). Time from symptom onset to intubation and time from total bilirubin on day two after ICU admission were the only independent predictors of PNX/PMD. Mortality was 60.7% in patients who developed PNX/PMD versus 38.6% in those who did not (p = 0.04). CONCLUSION: PNX/PMD occurs frequently in COVID-19 patients with ARDS requiring mechanical ventilation, and is associated with increased mortality. Development of PNX/PMD seems to occur despite use of protective mechanical ventilation and has a radiologic predictor sign.

Initial chest radiographs and artificial intelligence (AI) predict clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients: analysis of 697 Italian patients.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether the initial chest X-ray (CXR) severity assessed by an AI system may have prognostic utility in patients with COVID-19. METHODS: This retrospective single-center study included adult patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) between February 25 and April 9, 2020, with SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed on real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Initial CXRs obtained on ED presentation were evaluated by a deep learning artificial intelligence (AI) system and compared with the Radiographic Assessment of Lung Edema (RALE) score, calculated by two experienced radiologists. Death and critical COVID-19 (admission to intensive care unit (ICU) or deaths occurring before ICU admission) were identified as clinical outcomes. Independent predictors of adverse outcomes were evaluated by multivariate analyses. RESULTS: Six hundred ninety-seven 697 patients were included in the study: 465 males (66.7%), median age of 62 years (IQR 52-75). Multivariate analyses adjusting for demographics and comorbidities showed that an AI system-based score ≥ 30 on the initial CXR was an independent predictor both for mortality (HR 2.60 (95% CI 1.69 - 3.99; p < 0.001)) and critical COVID-19 (HR 3.40 (95% CI 2.35-4.94; p < 0.001)). Other independent predictors were RALE score, older age, male sex, coronary artery disease, COPD, and neurodegenerative disease. CONCLUSION: AI- and radiologist-assessed disease severity scores on CXRs obtained on ED presentation were independent and comparable predictors of adverse outcomes in patients with COVID-19. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04318366 ( https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04318366 ). KEY POINTS: • AI system-based score ≥ 30 and a RALE score ≥ 12 at CXRs performed at ED presentation are independent and comparable predictors of death and/or ICU admission in COVID-19 patients. • Other independent predictors are older age, male sex, coronary artery disease, COPD, and neurodegenerative disease. • The comparable performance of the AI system in relation to a radiologist-assessed score in predicting adverse outcomes may represent a game-changer in resource-constrained settings.