Using remote sensing data within an optimal spatiotemporal model for invasive plant management: the case of Ailanthus altissima in the Alta Murgia National Park.

We tackle the problem of coupling a spatiotemporal model for simulating the spread and control of an invasive alien species with data coming from image processing and expert knowledge. In this study, we implement a spatially explicit optimal control model based on a reaction-diffusion equation which includes an Holling II type functional response term for modeling the density control rate. The model takes into account the budget constraint related to the control program and searches for the optimal effort allocation for the minimization of the invasive alien species density. Remote sensing and expert knowledge have been assimilated in the model to estimate the initial species distribution and its habitat suitability, empirically extracted by a land cover map of the study area. The approach has been applied to the plant species Ailanthus altissima (Mill.) Swingle within the Alta Murgia National Park. This area is one of the Natura 2000 sites under the study of the ongoing National Biodiversity Future Center (NBFC) funded by the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), and pilot site of the finished H2020 project ECOPOTENTIAL, which aimed at the integration of modeling tools and Earth Observations for a sustainable management of protected areas. Both the initial density map and the land cover map have been generated by using very high resolution satellite images and validated by means of ground truth data provided by the EU Life Alta Murgia Project (LIFE12 BIO/IT/000213), a project aimed at the eradication of A. altissima in the Alta Murgia National Park.

Local bi-fidelity field approximation with Knowledge Based Neural Networks for Computational Fluid Dynamics.

This work presents a machine learning based method for bi-fidelity modelling. The method, a Knowledge Based Neural Network (KBaNN), performs a local, additive correction to the outputs of a coarse computational model and can be used to emulate either experimental data or the output of a more accurate, but expensive, computational model. An advantage of the method is that it can scale easily with the number of input and output features. This allows bi-fidelity modelling approaches to be applied to a wide variety of problems, for instance in the bi-fidelity modelling of fields. We demonstrate this aspect in this work through an application to Computational Fluid Dynamics, in which local corrections to a velocity field are performed by the KBaNN to account for mesh effects. KBaNNs were trained to make corrections to the free-stream velocity field and the boundary layer. They were trained on a limited data-set consisting of simple two-dimensional flows. The KBaNNs were then tested on a flow over a more complex geometry, a NACA 2412 airfoil. It was demonstrated that the KBaNNs were still able to provide a local correction to the velocity field which improved its accuracy. The ability of the KBaNNs to generalise to flows around new geometries that share similar physics is encouraging. Through knowledge based neural networks it may be possible to develop a system for bi-fidelity, computer based design which uses data from past simulations to inform its predictions.

Meta-modeling on detailed geography for accurate prediction of invasive alien species dispersal.

Invasive species are recognized as a significant threat to biodiversity. The mathematical modeling of their spatio-temporal dynamics can provide significant help to environmental managers in devising suitable control strategies. Several mathematical approaches have been proposed in recent decades to efficiently model the dispersal of invasive species. Relying on the assumption that the dispersal of an individual is random, but the density of individuals at the scale of the population can be considered smooth, reaction-diffusion models are a good trade-off between model complexity and flexibility for use in different situations. In this paper we present a continuous reaction-diffusion model coupled with arbitrary Polynomial Chaos (aPC) to assess the impact of uncertainties in the model parameters. We show how the finite elements framework is well-suited to handle important landscape heterogeneities as elevation and the complex geometries associated with the boundaries of an actual geographical region. We demonstrate the main capabilities of the proposed coupled model by assessing the uncertainties in the invasion of an alien species invading the Basque Country region in Northern Spain.