Predictability and conceptual repeatability of the predator-associated burst speed ecophenotype in western mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis).

Predation exerts strong selection pressure on morphological traits and is often studied in freshwater fishes. A common morphological ecophenotype driven by predation from pursuit predators is the predator-associated burst speed (PABS) ecophenotype. This ecophenotype, characterized by a smaller head, smaller body, and larger caudal region, is commonly found in western mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis) residing in environments with sunfish (family Centrarchidae) predators. However, the repeatability and transferability of the PABS ecophenotype across populations have not been tested. The four objectives of this study were to (1) assess the repeatability of methods to confirm the presence of the PABS ecophenotype in independent populations, (2) test whether morphology is correlated with predator abundance, (3) assess the repeatability of utilizing a discriminant function analysis (DFA) to accurately classify fish to predator status, and (4) use a DFA to conduct a cross-validation test of the PABS model using previously studied populations of G. affinis to predict predator status of newly studied populations. There was consistency in the occurrence of the PABS ecophenotype among populations with predators. Permuted MANOVA (PMANOVA) models fit to each dataset revealed a significant effect of collection site nested within predator status (i.e., presence or absence of predator), suggesting location-specific variations of the PABS ecophenotype. In addition, a PMANOVA model fit to body shape as a function of predator abundance (i.e., 0, 0.1-1.0, or >1.0 predators per minute of electrofishing) revealed a significant effect of predation level in the newly studied populations, suggesting morphology differs among populations with varying predator abundances. Cross-study validation of the DFA revealed low between-study accuracy compared to within-study accuracy, but elongation of the caudal region in the presence of predators was consistent across studies. Our findings ultimately suggest that although the PABS ecophenotype at studied locations provides partial predictive capacity at unstudied locations, the nature and magnitude of the PABS ecophenotype depend on environmental settings, encounter histories with predators, level of abundance of predators, or other spatially structured mechanisms.

Can fisheries bioenergetics modelling refine spatially explicit assessments of climate change vulnerability?

Rising water temperature under climate change is affecting the physiology, population dynamics and geographic distribution of freshwater taxa. We propose a novel application of individual-based bioenergetics modelling (BEM) to assess the physiological impacts of warming on freshwater fishes across broad spatial extents. We test this approach using the Guadalupe bass (Micropterus treculii), a species of conservation and recreational significance that is endemic to central TX, USA. We projected historical-to-future changes (middle 20th century to end of 21st century) in daily bioenergetics of individual fish across 7872 stream reaches and compared this output to changes in reach occupancy derived from traditional species distribution modelling (SDM). SDMs project an 8.7% to 52.1% decrease in reach occupancy, depending on model parameterizations and climate change scenarios. Persistence is projected in the central Edwards Plateau region, whereas extirpations are projected for the warmer southeastern region. BEM projected a median 79.3% and 143.2% increase in somatic growth of age-1 Guadalupe bass across historically occupied reaches under moderate and severe climate change scenarios, respectively. Higher end-of-year body size under future climate was caused by a longer growing season. Future scenarios exploring suppressed or enhanced prey consumption suggest that small changes in prey availability will have relatively greater effects on growth than forecasted changes in temperature. Projected growth was geographically discordant with SDM-based habitat suitability, suggesting that SDMs do not accurately reflect fundamental thermal niche dimensions. Our assessment suggests that for locations where the species persists, Guadalupe bass may benefit from warming, although realized consumption gains will depend on seasonal, spatially varying changes in prey availability and other biotic and abiotic factors. More generally, we demonstrate that uniting species-specific BEM with spatially explicit climate change projections can elucidate the physiological impacts of climate change-including seasonal variation-on freshwater fishes across broad geographic extents to complement traditional SDM.

Movement and mortality of invasive suckermouth armored catfish during a spearfishing control experiment.

Control of non-native, invasive species in groundwater-dependent ecosystems that are also inhabited by regionally endemic or at-risk species represents a key challenge in aquatic invasive species management. Non-native suckermouth armored catfish (SAC; family Loricariidae) have invaded freshwater ecosystems on a global scale, including the groundwater-dependent upper San Marcos River in Texas, USA. We used passive integrated transponder tags to follow the movements and fates of 65 fish in a 1.6 km spring-fed reach of the upper San Macros River to assess the efficacy of a community-based spearfishing bounty hunt for controlling SAC. We found the weekly probability of SAC survival was negatively correlated with the number of fish removed as a part of the bounty hunt each week (P = 0.003, R 2 = 0.86), while the probability of SAC being speared and reported was positively correlated with the number of fish removed (P = 0.011, R 2 = 0.53). The majority of SAC used < 25 m2 of river over a nine-week tracking period, but the area of river fish used correlated positively with the number of relocations (P < 0.001, R 2 = 0.36) as might be expected for a population that disperses through diffusive spread. These findings collectively suggest local-scale suppression of the SAC population is possible through community engagement in spearfishing, but over longer time periods immigration might offset some of the removal success. This conclusion provides an explanation for the pattern in which long-term spearfishing tournaments have reduced biomass but ultimately not resulted in eradication of the population. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10530-022-02834-2.

Paradigm versus paradox on the prairie: testing competing stream fish movement frameworks using an imperiled Great Plains minnow.

BACKGROUND: Movement information can improve conservation of imperiled species, yet movement is not quantified for many organisms in need of conservation. Prairie chub (Macrhybopsis australis) is a regionally endemic freshwater fish with unquantified movement ecology and currently considered for listing under the Endangered Species Act. The purpose of this study was to test competing ecological theories for prairie chub movement, including the colonization cycle hypothesis (CCH) that posits adults must make upstream movements to compensate for downstream drift at early life stages, and the restricted movement paradigm (RMP) that describes populations as heterogeneous mixes of mostly stationary and few mobile fish. METHODS: We tagged prairie chub with visible implant elastomer during the summer (May-August) of 2019 and 2020 to estimate net distance moved (m) and movement rate (m/d). We tested the hypotheses that observed prairie chub movement would be greater than expected under the RMP and that prairie chub movement would be biased in an upstream direction as predicted by the CCH. RESULTS: We tagged 5771 prairie chub and recaptured 213 individuals across 2019 and 2020. The stationary and mobile components of the prairie chub population moved an order of magnitude further and faster than expected under the RMP during both years. However, we found only limited evidence of upstream bias in adult prairie chub movement as would be expected under the CCH. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings are partly inconsistent with the RMP and the CCH, and instead closely follow the drift paradox (DP), in which upstream populations persist despite presumed downstream drift during early life stages and in the apparent absence of upstream bias in recolonization. Previous mathematical solutions to the DP suggest organisms that experience drift maintain upstream populations through either minimization of drift periods such that small amounts of upstream movement are needed to counter the effects of advection or increasing dispersal regardless of directionality. We conclude that the resolution to the DP for prairie chub is an increase in total dispersal and our results provide insight into the spatial scales at which prairie chub conservation and management may need to operate to maintain broad-scale habitat connectivity.

Which species, how many, and from where: Integrating habitat suitability, population genomics, and abundance estimates into species reintroduction planning.

Extirpated organisms are reintroduced into their former ranges worldwide to combat species declines and biodiversity losses. The growing field of reintroduction biology provides guiding principles for reestablishing populations, though criticisms remain regarding limited integration of initial planning, modeling frameworks, interdisciplinary collaborations, and multispecies approaches. We used an interdisciplinary, multispecies, quantitative framework to plan reintroductions of three fish species into Abrams Creek, Great Smoky Mountains National Park, USA. We first assessed the appropriateness of habitat at reintroduction sites for banded sculpin (Cottus carolinae), greenside darter (Etheostoma blennioides), and mottled sculpin (Cottus bairdii) using species distribution modeling. Next, we evaluated the relative suitability of nine potential source stock sites using population genomics, abundance estimates, and multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) based on known correlates of reintroduction success. Species distribution modeling identified mottled sculpin as a poor candidate, but banded sculpin and greenside darter as suitable candidates for reintroduction based on species-habitat relationships and habitats available in Abrams Creek. Genotyping by sequencing revealed acceptable levels of genetic diversity at all candidate source stock sites, identified population clusters, and allowed for estimating the number of fish that should be included in translocations. Finally, MCDA highlighted priorities among candidate source stock sites that were most likely to yield successful reintroductions based on differential weightings of habitat assessment, population genomics, and the number of fish available for translocation. Our integrative approach represents a unification of multiple recent advancements in the field of reintroduction biology and highlights the benefit of shifting away from simply choosing nearby populations for translocation to an information-based science with strong a priori planning coupled with several suggested posteriori monitoring objectives. Our framework can be applied to optimize reintroduction successes for a multitude of organisms and advances in the science of reintroduction biology by simultaneously addressing a variety of past criticisms of the field.

Groundwater declines are linked to changes in Great Plains stream fish assemblages.

Groundwater pumping for agriculture is a major driver causing declines of global freshwater ecosystems, yet the ecological consequences for stream fish assemblages are rarely quantified. We combined retrospective (1950-2010) and prospective (2011-2060) modeling approaches within a multiscale framework to predict change in Great Plains stream fish assemblages associated with groundwater pumping from the United States High Plains Aquifer. We modeled the relationship between the length of stream receiving water from the High Plains Aquifer and the occurrence of fishes characteristic of small and large streams in the western Great Plains at a regional scale and for six subwatersheds nested within the region. Water development at the regional scale was associated with construction of 154 barriers that fragment stream habitats, increased depth to groundwater and loss of 558 km of stream, and transformation of fish assemblage structure from dominance by large-stream to small-stream fishes. Scaling down to subwatersheds revealed consistent transformations in fish assemblage structure among western subwatersheds with increasing depths to groundwater. Although transformations occurred in the absence of barriers, barriers along mainstem rivers isolate depauperate western fish assemblages from relatively intact eastern fish assemblages. Projections to 2060 indicate loss of an additional 286 km of stream across the region, as well as continued replacement of large-stream fishes by small-stream fishes where groundwater pumping has increased depth to groundwater. Our work illustrates the shrinking of streams and homogenization of Great Plains stream fish assemblages related to groundwater pumping, and we predict similar transformations worldwide where local and regional aquifer depletions occur.

Comparative riverscape genetics reveals reservoirs of genetic diversity for conservation and restoration of Great Plains fishes.

We used comparative landscape genetics to examine the relative roles of historical events, intrinsic traits and landscape factors in determining the distribution of genetic diversity of river fishes across the North American Great Plains. Spatial patterns of diversity were overlaid on a patch-based graphical model and then compared within and among three species that co-occurred across five Great Plains watersheds. Species differing in reproductive strategy (benthic vs. pelagic-spawning) were hypothesized to have different patterns of genetic diversity, but the overriding factor shaping contemporary patterns of diversity was the signature of past climates and geological history. Allelic diversity was significantly higher at southern latitudes for Cyprinella lutrensis and Hybognathus placitus, consistent with northward expansion from southern Pleistocene refugia. Within the historical context, all species exhibited lowered occupancy and abundance in heavily fragmented and drier upstream reaches, particularly H. placitus; a pelagic-spawning species, suggesting rates of extirpation have outpaced losses of genetic diversity in this species. Within most tributary basins, genetically diverse populations of each species persisted. Hence, reconnecting genetically diverse populations with those characterized by reduced diversity (regardless of their position within the riverine network) would provide populations with greater genetic and demographic resilience. We discuss cases where cross-basin transfer may be appropriate to enhance genetic diversity and mitigate negative effects of climate change. Overall, striking similarities in genetic patterns and in response to fragmentation and dewatering suggest a common strategy for genetic resource management in this unique riverine fish assemblage.

Human impact on freshwater ecosystem services: a global perspective.

Human environmental change influences freshwaters as well as the regulating, provisioning, and cultural services that ecosystems provide worldwide. Here, we assess the global human impact on the potential value of six freshwater ecosystem services (ES) and estimate the proportion of each used globally (the mean value across all countries is in parentheses): biodiversity (0.37), disturbance regulation (0.24), commodities (0.39), greenhouse gases (0.09), water availability (0.10), and water quality (0.33). We also created a composite index of the impact. Using different valuation schemes, we found that humans have used potential global freshwater ES scaled by a relative value of roughly 4-20%, with a median of 16%. All countries use a considerable amount of the potential ES value, invalidating the idea that wealthier countries have less impact on their ES once they have developed. The data suggest that humans have diminished the potential ES provided by freshwaters across the globe and that factors associated with high population growth rates are related to the overall degradation.

Fragmentation alters stream fish community structure in dendritic ecological networks.

Effects of fragmentation on the ecology of organisms occupying dendritic ecological networks (DENs) have recently been described through both conceptual and mathematical models, but few hypotheses have been tested in complex, real-world ecosystems. Stream fishes provide a model system for assessing effects of fragmentation on the structure of communities occurring within DENs, including how fragmentation alters metacommunity dynamics and biodiversity. A recently developed habitat-availability measure, the "dendritic connectivity index" (DCI), allows for assigning quantitative measures of connectivity in DENs regardless of network extent or complexity, and might be used to predict fish community response to fragmentation. We characterized stream fish community structure in 12 DENs in the Great Plains, USA, during periods of dynamic (summer) and muted (fall) discharge regimes to test the DCI as a predictive model of fish community response to fragmentation imposed by road crossings. Results indicated that fish communities in stream segments isolated by road crossings had reduced species richness (alpha diversity) relative to communities that maintained connectivity with the surrounding DEN during summer and fall. Furthermore, isolated communities had greater dissimilarity (beta diversity) to downstream sites notisolated by road crossings during summer and fall. Finally, dissimilarity among communities within DENs decreased as a function of increased habitat connectivity (measured using the DCI) for summer and fall, suggesting that communities within highly connected DENs tend to be more homogeneous. Our results indicate that the DCI is sensitive to community effects of fragmentation in riverscapes and might be used by managers to predict ecological responses to changes in habitat connectivity. Moreover, our findings illustrate that relating structural connectivity of riverscapes to functional connectivity among communities might aid in maintaining metacommunity dynamics and biodiversity in complex dendritic ecosystems.