Do LUTS Predict Mortality? An Analysis Using Random Forest Algorithms.

Purpose: To evaluate a random forest (RF) algorithm of lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) as a predictor of all-cause mortality in a population-based cohort. Materials and Methods: A population-based cohort of 3143 men born in 1924, 1934, and 1944 was evaluated using a mailed questionnaire including the Danish Prostatic Symptom Score (DAN-PSS-1) to assess LUTS as well as questions on medical conditions and behavioral and sociodemographic factors. Surveys were repeated in 1994, 1999, 2004, 2009 and 2015. The cohort was followed-up for vital status until the end of 2018. RF uses an ensemble of classification trees for prediction with a good flexibility and without overfitting. RF algorithms were developed to predict the five-year mortality using LUTS, demographic, medical, and behavioral factors alone and in combinations. Results: A total of 2663 men were included in the study, of whom 917 (34%) died during follow-up (median follow-up time 15.0 years). The LUTS-based RF algorithm showed an area under the curve (AUC) 0.60 (95% CI 0.52-0.69) for five-year mortality. An expanded RF algorithm, including LUTS, medical history, and behavioral and sociodemographic factors, yielded an AUC 0.73 (0.65-0.81), while an algorithm excluding LUTS yielded an AUC 0.71 (0.62-0.78). Conclusion: An exploratory RF algorithm using LUTS can predict all-cause mortality with acceptable discrimination at the group level. In clinical practice, it is unlikely that LUTS will improve the accuracy to predict death if the patient's background is well known.

Do men adapt to lower urinary tract symptoms? An 11-year longitudinal study of male urinary urgency and associated bother.

OBJECTIVE: The study objective is to evaluate prognosis and predictors of bother caused by urinary urgency among middle-aged and older men. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A population-based sample of men born in 1974, 1964, 1954, 1944, 1934 and 1924 was followed-up from 2004 to 2015. The course of urgency and associated bother was evaluated with the Danish Prostatic Symptom Score at baseline and follow-up. Logistic regression was utilized to explore risk factors of increased bother at follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 2,480 men (39%) who had responded at baseline and follow-up were included in the study. Of them, 1,056 men (43%) had persistent mild urgency and 132 men (5%) persistent moderate or severe urgency at follow-up. The proportions of men experiencing at least moderate bother due to persistent urgency at follow-up were 6% (95% confidence interval 4.5-7.3) of those with mild and 79% (71.7-85.9) of the men with moderate or severe urgency. In multivariable-adjusted logistic regression, moderate to severe urgency was strongly associated with bother (odds ratio, OR 55.2, 95% CI 32.1-95.2). Other predictors of bother included cardiac disease (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.0-31.1), pulmonary disease (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.1-3.5) and medical treatment (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.6-4.6). CONCLUSIONS: Most men with urinary urgency have mild symptoms and bother. Only one out of five men with persistent moderate or severe urgency adapt to the symptoms. Men with a history of medical treatment for lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) or impaired cardiopulmonary health are more likely to experience bother from urinary urgency.

Lower Urinary Tract Symptoms and Mortality among Finnish Men: The Roles of Symptom Severity and Bother.

PURPOSE: The utility of male lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) as mortality risk factors remains unclear. We explored LUTS-associated mortality among Finnish men, evaluating the association of symptom severity and bother with risk of death. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A questionnaire including the Danish Prostatic Symptom Score was mailed to a population-based cohort of 3,143 men aged 50, 60 and 70 years in 1994, with repeat surveys in 1999, 2004, 2009 and 2015. The men were followed until the end of 2018. Mortality associated with LUTS was analyzed using time-dependent Cox regression adjusted for age and comorbidity, updating symptom data every 5 years, including interaction terms between symptoms and associated bother. RESULTS: Of the 1,167 men in the analysis, 591 (50.6%) died during the 24-year followup. In analyses of moderate and severe symptoms disregarding bother, overall voiding and storage LUTS, daytime frequency and urgency incontinence were associated with increased mortality: the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios were 1.19 (95% CI 1.00-1.40), 1.35 (1.13-1.62), 1.31 (1.09-1.58) and 2.19 (1.42-3.37), respectively. In analyses disregarding symptom severity and bother, voiding LUTS were associated with decreased mortality, while daytime frequency and nocturia were associated with increased mortality: the HRs were 0.82 (95% CI 0.67-1.00), 1.31 (95% CI 1.09-1.58) and 1.52 (95% CI 1.21-1.91), respectively. Excess mortality associated with bothersome daytime frequency and nocturia tended to be slightly higher: the HRs were 1.86 (95% CI 1.41-2.47) and 1.88 (95% CI 1.38-2.58), respectively. No significant interactions were found between symptoms and associated bother, however. CONCLUSIONS: Moderate and severe LUTS are potential risk factors for mortality, independently of their bother.

The Impact of Nocturia on Mortality: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PURPOSE: Nocturia (waking from sleep at night to void) is a common cause of sleep disruption associated with increased comorbidity and impaired quality of life. However, its impact on mortality remains unclear. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the association of nocturia with mortality as a prognostic factor and a causal risk factor. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We searched PubMed®, Scopus®, CINAHL® (Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature) and major conference abstracts up to December 31, 2018. Random effects meta-analyses were done to address the adjusted RR of mortality in people with nocturia. Meta-regression was performed to explore potential determinants of heterogeneity, including the risk of bias. We applied the GRADE (Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation) framework to rate the quality of evidence for nocturia as a prognostic risk factor for mortality and separately as a cause of mortality. RESULTS: Of the 5,230 identified reports 11 observational studies proved eligible for inclusion. To assess nocturia 10 studies used symptom questionnaires and 1 used frequency-volume charts. Nocturia was defined as 2 or more episodes per night in 6 studies (55%) and as 3 or more episodes per night in 5 (45%). Pooled estimates demonstrated a RR of 1.27 (95% CI 1.16-1.40, I2=48%) with an absolute 1.6% and 4.0% 5-year mortality difference in individuals 60 and 75 years old, respectively. The pooled estimates of relative risk did not differ significantly across varying age, gender, followup, nocturia case definition, risk of bias or study region. We rated the quality of evidence for nocturia as a prognostic factor as moderate and as a cause of mortality as very low. CONCLUSIONS: Nocturia is probably associated with an approximately 1.3-fold increased risk of death.

The Impact of Nocturia on Falls and Fractures: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PURPOSE: Although nocturia is associated with various comorbidities, its impact on falls and fractures remains unclear. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the association between nocturia and falls and fractures as a prognostic and as a causal risk factor. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We searched PubMed®, Scopus®, CINAHL (Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature) and abstracts of major urological meetings up to December 31, 2018. We conducted random effects meta-analyses of adjusted relative risks of falls and fractures. We applied the GRADE (Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation) approach to rate the quality of evidence for nocturia as a prognostic and causal factor of falls and fractures. RESULTS: Among 5,230 potential reports 9 observational longitudinal studies provided data on the association between nocturia and falls or fractures (1 for both, 4 for falls, 4 for fractures). Pooled estimates demonstrated a risk ratio of 1.20 (95% CI 1.05-1.37, I2=51.7%, annual risk difference 7.5% among the elderly) for association between nocturia and falls and 1.32 (95% CI 0.99-1.76, I2=57.5%, annual risk difference 1.2%) for association between nocturia and fractures. Subgroup analyses showed no significant effect modification by age, gender, followup time, nocturia case definition or risk of bias. We rated the quality of evidence for nocturia as a prognostic factor as moderate for falls and low for fractures, and as very low as a cause of falls/fractures. CONCLUSIONS: Nocturia is probably associated with an approximately 1.2-fold increased risk of falls and possibly an approximately 1.3-fold increased risk of fractures.

Impact of lower urinary tract symptoms on mortality: a 21-year follow-up among middle-aged and elderly Finnish men.

BACKGROUND: The usefulness of lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) as mortality risk factors remains unclear. Repeated assessments are required to take into account symptom fluctuation and de novo symptom appearance. The study objective was to evaluate mortality in relation to three urinary storage symptoms-urgency, daytime frequency, and nocturia-in middle-aged and elderly men, considering also other time-varying factors during follow-up. METHODS: A mail survey of a population-based cohort of men initially aged 50, 60, and 70 years was conducted in Finland in 1994, 1999, 2004, and 2009. The questionnaire included assessments of LUTS based on the Danish Prostatic Symptom Score and comorbidities. The men were followed up for mortality through the population registry through 2014. LUTS-related hazard ratios (HR) were analyzed with time-dependent Cox regression adjusted for the year of birth and comorbidities using variable values updated every 5 years. Sensitivity analyses were conducted using values of all variables fixed to the baseline assessment of 1994. RESULTS: Of the 1332 eligible men with data on LUTS from each preceding survey, 514 (38.6%) died during the 21-year follow-up. In time-dependent analyses, daytime frequency, and nocturia were significantly associated with increased mortality: the adjusted HR was 1.42 (95% CI 1.11-1.83) for daytime frequency, 1.38 (1.07-1.79) for nocturia and 1.19 (0.94-1.50) for urgency. In sensitivity analyses with fixed baseline characteristics, only nocturia was suggestively associated with an increased risk of death: the adjusted HR was 1.09 (0.84-1.42) for daytime frequency, 1.41 (0.99-2.02) for nocturia and 0.94 (0.52-1.68) for urgency. CONCLUSIONS: Among aging men, LUTS are more accurate predictors of short-term than longer-term mortality risk. Repeated assessments are needed to detect clinically relevant and persistent symptoms, often associated with ill health. Accordingly, men with daytime frequency or nocturia exhibit a 1.4-fold risk of death and therefore, should be evaluated for underlying comorbidity.

Incidence and Remission of Nocturia: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

CONTEXT: Although vital for decision-making about management, the natural history of nocturia remains uncertain. A systematic review would clarify the issue, but because natural history reviews are uncommon it would require methodological innovations. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence and remission of nocturia, and refine methods for meta-analyses assessing natural history. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: We conducted a comprehensive search of PubMed, Scopus, and Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature databases and abstracts of major urologic meetings as far as August 31, 2015. Random effects meta-analyses addressed incidence/remission rates of nocturia; meta-regression explored potential determinants of heterogeneity. Studies were categorized as either low or high risk of bias using a novel instrument specifically designed for longitudinal symptom studies aimed at the general population. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: Of 4165 potentially relevant reports, 16 proved eligible. Pooled estimates from 13 studies (114 964 person-years of follow-up) demonstrated that annual incidence was strongly associated with age: 0.4% (0-0.8%) for adults aged < 40 yr; 2.8% (1.9-3.7%) for adults aged 40-59 yr; and 11.5% (9.1-14.0%) for adults aged ≥ 60 yr. Of those with nocturia, each year 12.1% (9.5-14.7%) experienced remission. CONCLUSIONS: The available evidence suggests that nocturia onset is strongly associated with age, with much higher rates in those over 60 yr; remission occurs in approximately 12% each year. These estimates can aid with management decisions and counseling related to nocturia. PATIENT SUMMARY: We reviewed all previous studies of progression of night-time urination (nocturia). We found that in any given year 0.4% of adults aged < 40 yr, 3% of adults aged 40-59 yr, and 12% of adults aged ≥ 60 yr will develop nocturia, while overall 12% of those with nocturia will improve. These findings may be helpful in making decisions about coping with or treating nocturia.

Long-term Impact of Mode of Delivery on Stress Urinary Incontinence and Urgency Urinary Incontinence: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

CONTEXT: Stress urinary incontinence (SUI) and urgency urinary incontinence (UUI) are associated with physical and psychological morbidity, and large societal costs. The long-term effects of delivery modes on each kind of incontinence remain uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the long-term impact of delivery mode on SUI and UUI. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: We searched Medline, Scopus, CINAHL, and relevant major conference abstracts up to October 31, 2014, including any observational study with adjusted analyses or any randomized trial addressing the association between delivery mode and SUI or UUI ≥1 yr after delivery. Two reviewers extracted data, including incidence/prevalence of SUI and UUI by delivery modes, and assessed risk of bias. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: Pooled estimates from 15 eligible studies demonstrated an increased risk of SUI after vaginal delivery versus cesarean section (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.85; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.56-2.19; I(2)=57%; risk difference: 8.2%). Metaregression demonstrated a larger effect of vaginal delivery among younger women (p=0.005). Four studies suggested no difference in the risk of SUI between spontaneous vaginal and instrumental delivery (aOR: 1.11; 95% CI, 0.84-1.45; I(2)=50%). Eight studies suggested an elevated risk of UUI after vaginal delivery versus cesarean section (aOR: 1.30; 95% CI, 1.02-1.65; I(2)=37%; risk difference: 2.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with cesarean section, vaginal delivery is associated with an almost twofold increase in the risk of long-term SUI, with an absolute increase of 8%, and an effect that is largest in younger women. There is also an increased risk of UUI, with an absolute increase of approximately 3%. PATIENT SUMMARY: In this systematic review we looked for the long-term effects of childbirth on urinary leakage. We found that vaginal delivery is associated with an almost twofold increase in the risk of developing leakage with exertion, compared with cesarean section, with a smaller effect on leakage in association with urgency.

Systematic review and metaanalysis of genetic association studies of urinary symptoms and prolapse in women.

OBJECTIVE: Family studies and twin studies demonstrate that lower urinary tract symptoms and pelvic organ prolapse are heritable. This review aimed to identify genetic polymorphisms tested for an association with lower urinary tract symptoms or prolapse, and to assess the strength, consistency, and risk of bias among reported associations. STUDY DESIGN: PubMed and HuGE Navigator were searched up to May 1, 2014, using a combination of genetic and phenotype key words, including "nocturia," "incontinence," "overactive bladder," "prolapse," and "enuresis." Major genetics, urology, and gynecology conference abstracts were searched from 2005 through 2013. We screened 889 abstracts, and retrieved 78 full texts. In all, 27 published and 7 unpublished studies provided data on polymorphisms in or near 32 different genes. Fixed and random effects metaanalyses were conducted using codominant models of inheritance. We assessed the credibility of pooled associations using the interim Venice criteria. RESULTS: In pooled analysis, the rs4994 polymorphism of the ADRB3 gene was associated with overactive bladder (odds ratio [OR], 2.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7-3.6; n = 419). The rs1800012 polymorphism of the COL1A1 gene was associated with prolapse (OR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.0-1.7; n = 838) and stress urinary incontinence (OR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.4-3.2; n = 190). Other metaanalyses, including those for polymorphisms of COL3A1,LAMC1,MMP1,MMP3, and MMP9 did not show significant effects. Many studies were at high risk of bias from genotyping error or population stratification. CONCLUSION: These metaanalyses provide moderate epidemiological credibility for associations of variation in ADRB3 with overactive bladder, and variation of COL1A1 with prolapse. Clinical testing for any of these polymorphisms cannot be recommended based on current evidence.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of candidate gene association studies of lower urinary tract symptoms in men.

CONTEXT: Although family studies have shown that male lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) are highly heritable, no systematic review exists of genetic polymorphisms tested for association with LUTS. OBJECTIVE: To systematically review and meta-analyze studies assessing candidate polymorphisms/genes tested for an association with LUTS, and to assess the strength, consistency, and potential for bias among pooled associations. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: A systematic search of the PubMed and HuGE databases as well as abstracts of major urologic meetings was performed through to January 2013. Case-control studies reporting genetic associations in men with LUTS were included. Reviewers independently and in duplicate screened titles, abstracts, and full texts to determine eligibility, abstracted data, and assessed the credibility of pooled associations according to the interim Venice criteria. Authors were contacted for clarifications if needed. Meta-analyses were performed for variants assessed in more than two studies. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: We identified 74 eligible studies containing data on 70 different genes. A total of 35 meta-analyses were performed with statistical significance in five (ACE, ELAC2, GSTM1, TERT, and VDR). The heterogeneity was high in three of these meta-analyses. The rs731236 variant of the vitamin D receptor had a protective effect for LUTS (odds ratio: 0.64; 95% confidence interval, 0.49-0.83) with moderate heterogeneity (I(2)=27.2%). No evidence for publication bias was identified. Limitations include wide-ranging phenotype definitions for LUTS and limited power in most meta-analyses to detect smaller effect sizes. CONCLUSIONS: Few putative genetic risk variants have been reliably replicated across populations. We found consistent evidence of a reduced risk of LUTS associated with the common rs731236 variant of the vitamin D receptor gene in our meta-analyses. PATIENT SUMMARY: Combining the results from all previous studies of genetic variants that may cause urinary symptoms in men, we found significant variants in five genes. Only one, a variant of the vitamin D receptor, was consistently protective across different populations.