ABSTRACT
Vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) emerges periodically from its focus of endemic transmission in southern Mexico to cause epizootics in livestock in the US. The ecology of VSV involves a diverse, but largely undefined, repertoire of potential reservoir hosts and invertebrate vectors. As part of a larger program to decipher VSV transmission, we conducted a study of the spatiotemporal dynamics of Simulium black flies, a known vector of VSV, along the Rio Grande in southern New Mexico, USA from March to December 2020. Serendipitously, the index case of VSV-Indiana (VSIV) in the USA in 2020 occurred at a central point of our study. Black flies appeared soon after the release of the Rio Grande's water from an upstream dam in March 2020. Two-month and one-year lagged precipitation, maximum temperature, and vegetation greenness, measured as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), were associated with increased black fly abundance. We detected VSIV RNA in 11 pools comprising five black fly species using rRT-PCR; five pools yielded a VSIV sequence. To our knowledge, this is the first detection of VSV in the western US from vectors that were not collected on premises with infected domestic animals.
ABSTRACT
Frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are forecast to increase in the 21st century. Predicting how managed ecosystems may respond to climatic extremes is intensified by uncertainty associated with knowing when, where, and how long effects of extreme events will be manifest in an ecosystem. In water-limited ecosystems with high inter-annual variability in rainfall, it is important to be able to distinguish responses that result from seasonal fluctuations in rainfall from long-term directional increases or decreases in precipitation. A tool that successfully distinguishes seasonal from directional biomass responses would allow land managers to make informed decisions about prioritizing mitigation strategies, allocating human resource monitoring efforts, and mobilizing resources to withstand extreme climatic events. We leveraged long-term observations (2000-2013) of quadrat-level plant biomass at multiple locations across a semiarid landscape in southern New Mexico to verify the use of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series derived from 250-m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data as a proxy for changes in aboveground productivity. This period encompassed years of sustained drought (2000-2003) and record-breaking high rainfall (2006 and 2008) followed by subsequent drought years (2011 through 2013) that resulted in a restructuring of plant community composition in some locations. Our objective was to decompose vegetation patterns derived from MODIS NDVI over this period into contributions from (1) the long-term trend, (2) seasonal cycle, and (3) unexplained variance using the Breaks for Additive Season and Trend (BFAST) model. BFAST breakpoints in NDVI trend and seasonal components were verified with field-estimated biomass at 15 sites that differed in species richness, vegetation cover, and soil properties. We found that 34 of 45 breaks in NDVI trend reflected large changes in mean biomass and 16 of 19 seasonal breaks accompanied changes in the contribution to biomass by perennial and/or annual grasses. The BFAST method using satellite imagery proved useful for detecting previously reported ground-based changes in vegetation in this arid ecosystem. We demonstrate that time series analysis of NDVI data holds potential for monitoring landscape condition in arid ecosystems at the large spatial scales needed to differentiate responses to a changing climate from responses to seasonal variability in rainfall.
