ABSTRACT
Life-course epidemiology is useful for describing and analyzing complex etiological mechanisms for disease development, but existing statistical methods are essentially confirmatory, because they rely on a priori model specification. This limits the scope of causal inquiries that can be made, because these methods are suited mostly to examine well-known hypotheses that do not question our established view of health, which could lead to confirmation bias. We propose an exploratory alternative. Instead of specifying a life-course model prior to data analysis, our method infers the life-course model directly from the data. Our proposed method extends the well-known Peter-Clark (PC) algorithm (named after its authors) for causal discovery, and it facilitates including temporal information for inferring a model from observational data. The extended algorithm is called temporal PC. The obtained life-course model can afterward be perused for interesting causal hypotheses. Our method complements classical confirmatory methods and guides researchers in expanding their models in new directions. We showcase the method using a data set encompassing almost 3,000 Danish men followed from birth until age 65 years. Using this data set, we inferred life-course models for the role of socioeconomic and health-related factors on development of depression.
Subject(s)
Epidemiologic Methods , Models, Statistical , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Algorithms , Causality , Child , Child, Preschool , Denmark/epidemiology , Depression/epidemiology , Depression/etiology , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Male , Middle Aged , Socioeconomic Factors , Young AdultABSTRACT
Background: In patients with intestinal failure who are receiving home parenteral support (HPS), catheter-related bloodstream infections (CRBSIs) inflict health impairment and high costs.Objective: This study investigates the efficacy and safety of the antimicrobial catheter lock solution, taurolidine-citrate-heparin, compared with heparin 100 IE/mL on CRBSI occurrence.Design: Forty-one high-risk patients receiving HPS followed in a tertiary HPS unit were randomly assigned in a double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial. External, stratified randomization was performed according to age, sex, and prior CRBSI incidence. The prior CRBSI incidence in the study population was 2.4 episodes/1000 central venous catheter (CVC) days [95% Poisson confidence limits (CLs): 2.12, 2.71 episodes/1000 CVC days]. The maximum treatment period was 2 y or until occurrence of a CRBSI or right-censoring because of CVC removal. The exact permutation tests were used to calculate P values for the log-rank tests.Results: Twenty patients received the taurolidine-citrate-heparin lock and 21 received the heparin lock, with 9622 and 6956 treatment days, respectively. In the taurolidine-citrate-heparin arm, no CRBSIs occurred, whereas 7 CRBSIs occurred in the heparin arm, with an incidence of 1.0/1000 CVC days (95% Poisson CLs: 0.4, 2.07/1000 CVC days; P = 0.005). The CVC removal rates were 0.52/1000 CVC days (95% Poisson CLs: 0.17, 1.21/1000 CVC days) and 1.72/1000 CVC days (95% Poisson CLs: 0.89, 3.0/1000 CVC days) in the taurolidine-citrate-heparin and heparin arm, respectively, tending to prolong CVC survival in the taurolidine arm (P = 0.06). Costs per treatment year were lower in the taurolidine arm (2348) than in the heparin arm (6744) owing to fewer admission days related to treating CVC-related complications (P = 0.02).Conclusions: In patients with intestinal failure who are life dependent on HPS, the taurolidine-citrate-heparin catheter lock demonstrates a clinically substantial and cost-beneficial reduction of CRBSI occurrence in a high-risk population compared with heparin. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01948245.
