A regionally coherent ecological fingerprint of climate change, evidenced from natural history collections.

Climate change has dramatic impacts on ecological systems, affecting a range of ecological factors including phenology, species abundance, diversity, and distribution. The breadth of climate change impacts on ecological systems leads to the occurrence of fingerprints of climate change. However, climate fingerprints are usually identified across broad geographical scales and are potentially influenced by publication biases. In this study, we used natural history collections spanning over 250 years, to quantify a range of ecological responses to climate change, including phenology, abundance, diversity, and distributions, across a range of taxa, including vertebrates, invertebrates, plants, and fungi, within a single region, Central Norway. We tested the hypotheses that ecological responses to climate change are apparent and coherent at a regional scale, that longer time series show stronger trends over time and in relation to temperature, and that ecological responses change in trajectory at the same time as shifts in temperature. We identified a clear regional coherence in climate signal, with decreasing abundances of limnic zooplankton (on average by 7691 individuals m-3 °C-1) and boreal forest breeding birds (on average by 1.94 territories km-2 °C-1), and earlier plant flowering phenology (on average 2 days °C-1) for every degree of temperature increase. In contrast, regional-scale species distributions and species diversity were largely stable. Surprisingly, the effect size of ecological response did not increase with study duration, and shifts in responses did not occur at the same time as shifts in temperature. This may be as the long-term studies include both periods of warming and temperature stability, and that ecological responses lag behind warming. Our findings demonstrate a regional climate fingerprint across a long timescale. We contend that natural history collections provide a unique window on a broad spectrum of ecological responses at timescales beyond most ecological monitoring programs. Natural history collections are thus an essential source for long-term ecological research.

Urban aliens and threatened near-naturals: Land-cover affects the species richness of alien- and threatened species in an urban-rural setting.

Urbanisation has strong effects on biodiversity patterns, but impacts vary among species groups and across spatial scales. From a local biodiversity management perspective, a more general understanding of species richness across taxonomic groups is required. This study aims to investigate how fine-scale land-cover variables influence species richness patterns of locally threatened and alien species. The study was performed in Trondheim, Norway, covering a steep urbanisation gradient. Spatially correlated Generalised Linear Mixed Effects Models predicting the number of all-, threatened-and alien species by taxon, habitat, habitat heterogeneity and mean aspect within 500 m×500 m grid cells were constructed. The habitat categories were based on detailed land-cover maps. The highest number of threatened species was found in habitats relatively less affected by humans, whereas the number of alien species were only dependent on taxonomic group and spatial correlation. It is shown that land-cover variables within an administrative border can be used to make predictions on species richness within overarching species groups. Recommendations to biodiversity management agencies are to ensure protection of natural habitats to favour locally threatened species, and closely monitor urban areas to mitigate the introduction and spread of alien species.

Can plant traits predict seed dispersal probability via red deer guts, fur, and hooves?

ABSTRACT: Seed dispersal by mammals provides functional connectivity between isolated plant habitat patches. Across much of Europe, red deer (Cervus elaphus) populations are growing steadily, potentially leading to increasing importance of this large mammal species to plant dispersal. While deer endozoochory is relatively well studied, epizoochory via fur and hoof attachment is much less understood. Seed dispersal internally and externally on 57 red deer individuals was investigated by sampling the seed content of intestinal tracts, fur, and hooves of animals shot during annual hunts in four contrasted landscapes in Denmark. We assessed compositional differences between dispersal modes whether plant species' association to a dispersal mode could be predicted by seed traits, whole-plant traits, and species' local abundance. We found the largest difference in seed species composition to be between epizoochory (fur and hooves) and endozoochory (gut contents). Probability of plant dispersal through guts and fur was correctly predicted from traits more often than not. Hoof-epizoochory, however, could not be correctly predicted from plant traits. Most plant species encountered were picked up by all three dispersal modes, suggesting an overriding effect of plant abundance in the landscapes in which the deer roam, which was also indicated by the statistical analysis. Nonetheless, a significant proportion of species were associated with either gut, fur, or hoof-borne dispersal, reflecting the effect of plant traits and, potentially, animal behavior. Plant species being dispersed more often than expected through intestines were mainly associated with ruderal habitats, whereas species transported via fur tended toward association with wooded habitats. Considering the increasing red deer populations in Europe, and the differences between seed dispersal modes, all modes of animal seed dispersal should be taken into account in future studies. OPEN RESEARCH BADGES: This article has been awarded Open Data and Open Materials Badges. All materials and data are publicly accessible via the Open Science Framework at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.7982483 and https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.7982483.