Hypotension During Vasopressor Infusion Occurs in Predictable Clusters: A Multicenter Analysis.

Background: Published evidence indicates that mean arterial pressure (MAP) below a goal range (hypotension) is associated with worse outcomes, though MAP management failures are common. We sought to characterize hypotension occurrences in ICUs and consider the implications for MAP management. Methods: Retrospective analysis of 3 hospitals' cohorts of adult ICU patients during continuous vasopressor infusion. Two cohorts were general, mixed ICU patients and one was exclusively acute spinal cord injury patients. "Hypotension-clusters" were defined where there were ≥10 min of cumulative hypotension over a 60-min period and "constant hypotension" was ≥10 continuous minutes. Trend analysis was performed (predicting future MAP using 14 min of preceding MAP data) to understand which hypotension-clusters could likely have been predicted by clinician awareness of MAP trends. Results: In cohorts of 155, 66, and 16 ICU stays, respectively, the majority of hypotension occurred within the hypotension-clusters. Failures to keep MAP above the hypotension threshold were notable in the bottom quartiles of each cohort, with hypotension durations of 436, 167, and 468 min, respectively, occurring within hypotension-clusters per day. Mean arterial pressure trend analysis identified most hypotension-clusters before any constant hypotension occurred (81.2%-93.6% sensitivity, range). The positive predictive value of hypotension predictions ranged from 51.4% to 72.9%. Conclusions: Across 3 cohorts, most hypotension occurred in temporal clusters of hypotension that were usually predictable from extrapolation of MAP trends.

Development and Validation of a Predictive Model for Hemodynamic Responses to Resuscitation during Uncontrolled Hemorrhage.

We investigated whether a statistical model could predict mean arterial pressure (MAP) during uncontrolled hemorrhage; such a model could be used for automated decision support, to help clinicians decide when to provide intravascular volume to achieve MAP goals. This was a secondary analysis of adult swine subjects during uncontrolled splenic bleeding. By protocol, after developing severe hypotension (MAP < 60 mmHg), subjects were resuscitated with either saline (NS) or fresh frozen plasma (FFP), determined randomly. Vital signs were documented at quasi-regular time-step intervals, until either subject death or 300 min. Subjects were randomly separated 50%/50% into training/validation sets, and regression models were developed to predict MAP for each subsequent (i.e., future) time-step. Median time-steps for serially recorded vital signs were +15 min. 5 subjects survived the protocol; 17 died after a median time of 87 min (IQR 78 - 134). The final model consisted of: current MAP; heart rate (HR); prior NS; imminent NS; and imminent FFP. The 95% limits-of-agreement between true subsequent MAP vs. predicted subsequent MAP were +10/-11 mmHg for the 79 time-steps in the training set; and +14/-13 for the 64 time-steps in the validation set. A total of 10 sudden death events (i.e., rapid, fatal MAP decrease within one single time-step) were excluded from analysis. In conclusion, for uncontrolled hemorrhage in a swine model, it was possible to estimate the next documented MAP value on the basis of the subject's current documented MAP; HR; prior NS; and the volume of resuscitation about to be administered. However, the model was unable to predict "sudden death" events. The applicability to populations with wider heterogeneity of hemorrhage patterns and with comorbidities requires further investigation.