Evolution of the ecological niche behind the largest disjunct freshwater fish distribution in the world.

Ecological processes that are behind distributions of species that inhabit isolated localities, complex disjunct distributions, remain poorly understood. Traditionally, vicariance and dispersion have been proposed as explanatory mechanisms that drive such distributions. However, to date, our understanding of the ecological processes driving evolution of ecological niches associated with disjunct distributions remains rudimentary. Here, we propose a framework to deconstruct drivers of such distribution using World's most widespread freshwater fish Galaxias maculatus as a model and integrating marine and freshwater environments where its life cycle may occur. Specifically, we assessed ecological and historical factors (Gondwanan vicariance, marine dispersion) and potential dispersion (niche-tracking) that explain its distribution in the Southern Hemisphere. Estimated distribution was consistent with previously reported distribution and mainly driven by temperature and topography in freshwater environments and by primary productivity and nitrate in marine environments. Niche dynamics of G. maculatus provided evidence of synergy between vicariance and marine dispersion as explanatory mechanisms of its disjunct distribution, suggesting that its ecological niche was conserved since approximately 30 Ma ago. This integrated assessment of ecological niche in marine and freshwater environments serves as a generic framework that may be applied to understand processes underpinning complex distributions of diadromous species.

Los procesos ecológicos que subyacen a las distribuciones de especies que habitan en localidades aisladas, distribuciones disjuntas complejas, siguen siendo poco conocidos. Tradicionalmente, se han propuesto la dispersión y la vicarianza como mecanismos explicativos de tales distribuciones. Sin embargo, hasta la fecha, nuestra comprensión de los procesos ecológicos que impulsan la evolución de los nichos ecológicos de distribuciones disjuntas sigue siendo rudimentaria. Aquí proponemos un marco para de­construir los factores que impulsan dicha distribución, utilizando como modelo el pez de agua dulce con distribución más extendida del mundo, Galaxias maculatus, e integrando los entornos marinos y dulceacuícolas en los que se desarrolla su ciclo vital. En concreto, evaluamos los factores ecológicos e históricos (vicarianza gondwánica, dispersión marina) que explican su distribución en el hemisferio sur. La distribución estimada coincide con la descrita anteriormente para la especie y está determinada principalmente por la temperatura y la topografía en ambientes dulceacuícolas, y la productividad primaria y el nitrato en ambientes marinos. La dinámica de nicho de G. maculatus aportó pruebas de la sinergia entre vicarianza y dispersión marina como mecanismos explicativos de su distribución disjunta, lo que sugiere que su nicho ecológico se conservó desde hace aproximadamente 30 Ma. Esta evaluación integrada del nicho ecológico en ambientes marinos y dulceacuícolas puede aplicarse para comprender los procesos que subyacen a las distribuciones complejas de especies diádromas.

Global priority conservation areas in the face of 21st century climate change.

In an era when global biodiversity is increasingly impacted by rapidly changing climate, efforts to conserve global biodiversity may be compromised if we do not consider the uneven distribution of climate-induced threats. Here, via a novel application of an aggregate Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) that combines changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation with changes in their interannual variability, we assess multi-dimensional climate changes across the "Global 200" ecoregions - a set of priority ecoregions designed to "achieve the goal of saving a broad diversity of the Earth's ecosystems" - over the 21(st) century. Using an ensemble of 62 climate scenarios, our analyses show that, between 1991-2010 and 2081-2100, 96% of the ecoregions considered will be likely (more than 66% probability) to face moderate-to-pronounced climate changes, when compared to the magnitudes of change during the past five decades. Ecoregions at high northern latitudes are projected to experience most pronounced climate change, followed by those in the Mediterranean Basin, Amazon Basin, East Africa, and South Asia. Relatively modest RCCI signals are expected over ecoregions in Northwest South America, West Africa, and Southeast Asia, yet with considerable uncertainties. Although not indicative of climate-change impacts per se, the RCCI-based assessment can help policy-makers gain a quantitative and comprehensive overview of the unevenly distributed climate risks across the G200 ecoregions. Whether due to significant climate change signals or large uncertainties, the ecoregions highlighted in the assessment deserve special attention in more detailed impact assessments to inform effective conservation strategies under future climate change.