Physical, biological and anthropogenic drivers of spatial patterns of coral reef fish assemblages at regional and local scales.

Species abundance, diversity and community assemblage structure are determined by multiple physical, habitat and management drivers that operate across multiple spatial scales. Here we used a multi-scale coral reef monitoring dataset to examine regional and local differences in the abundance, species richness and composition of fish assemblages in no-take marine reserve (NTMR) and fished zones at four island groups in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, Australia. We applied boosted regression trees to quantify the influence of 20 potential drivers on the coral reef fish assemblages. Reefs in two locations, Magnetic Island and the Keppel Islands, had distinctive fish assemblages and low species richness, while the Palm and Whitsunday Islands had similar species composition and higher species richness. Overall, our analyses identified several important physical (temperature, wave exposure) and biological (coral, turf, macroalgal and unconsolidated substratum cover) drivers of inshore reef fish communities, some of which are being altered by human activities. Of these, sea surface temperature (SST) was more influential at large scales, while wave exposure was important both within and between island groups. Species richness declined with increasing macroalgal cover and exposure to cyclones, and increased with SST. Species composition was most strongly influenced by mean SST and percent cover of macroalgae. There was substantial regional variation in the local drivers of spatial patterns. Although NTMR zoning influenced total fish density in some regions, it had negligible effects on fish species richness, composition and trophic structure because of the relatively small number of species targeted by the fishery. These findings show that inshore reef fishes are directly influenced by disturbances typical of the nearshore Great Barrier Reef, highlighting the need to complement global action on climate change with more targeted localised efforts to maintain or improve the condition of coral reef habitats.

Measuring sediment grain size across the catchment to reef continuum: Improved methods and environmental insights.

Sediments collected within freshwater, estuarine and marine habitats were used to trial various chemical and physical pre-treatments to develop a systematic protocol for grain-size analysis using laser diffraction. Application of this protocol mitigates the influence of bio-physical processes that may transform grain-size distributions, enabling the characterisation and quantification of 'primary' mineral sediments across the complex freshwater-marine continuum to be more reliably assessed. Application of the protocol to two Great Barrier Reef (Australia) river catchments and their estuaries reveals the ecologically relevant <20 µm fraction comprises a larger component of exported sediment than existing methods indicate. These findings are highly relevant when comparing measured data to grain-size-specific modelled sediment loads and water-quality targets. Finally, adoption of the protocol also improves the environmental interpretation of the influence of 'terrigenous sediment' in marine settings, including quantification of newly-delivered flood plume sediment.

Baseline assessment of coastal water quality, in Vanuatu, South Pacific: Insights gained from in-situ sampling.

Nearshore deterioration of water quality in Pacific coastal waters is a growing problem, associated with increasing urban and industrial sewage discharges, and agricultural runoff. Published water quality studies in the Pacific region are limited in both number and scope, making it difficult to resolve the extent of the issue or quantify the variability of water quality across Pacific islands and countries. This study collected water quality measurements over three years in the coastal waters around the Island of Efate (Vanuatu) with majority of work carried out in Port Vila, its capital. Port Vila is the key urban centre for Vanuatu where the increasing population and pollution inputs are placing substantial pressure on the coastal environment. Highest concentrations of dissolved nutrients and suspended sediments were measured adjacent or near the urban drains that enter the coastal areas along the capital's seafront, highlighting many of the issues around anthropogenic inputs are linked to the increasing urbanisation in Port Vila Bay. We provide baseline data that explores variability of coastal water quality and these types of datasets for Pacific islands are a first step towards facilitating development of long-term monitoring programmes and informing coastal zone management decision making.

Long-term dynamics and drivers of coral and macroalgal cover on inshore reefs of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park.

Quantifying the role of biophysical and anthropogenic drivers of coral reef ecosystem processes can inform management strategies that aim to maintain or restore ecosystem structure and productivity. However, few studies have examined the combined effects of multiple drivers, partitioned their impacts, or established threshold values that may trigger shifts in benthic cover. Inshore fringing reefs of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP) occur in high-sediment, high-nutrient environments and are under increasing pressure from multiple acute and chronic stressors. Despite world-leading management, including networks of no-take marine reserves, relative declines in hard coral cover of 40-50% have occurred in recent years, with localized but persistent shifts from coral to macroalgal dominance on some reefs. Here we use boosted regression tree analyses to test the relative importance of multiple biophysical drivers on coral and macroalgal cover using a long-term (12-18 yr) data set collected from reefs at four island groups. Coral and macroalgal cover were negatively correlated at all island groups, and particularly when macroalgal cover was above 20%. Although reefs at each island group had different disturbance-and-recovery histories, degree heating weeks (DHW) and routine wave exposure consistently emerged as common drivers of coral and macroalgal cover. In addition, different combinations of sea-surface temperature, nutrient and turbidity parameters, exposure to high turbidity (primary) floodwater, depth, grazing fish density, farming damselfish density, and management zoning variously contributed to changes in coral and macroalgal cover at each island group. Clear threshold values were apparent for multiple drivers including wave exposure, depth, and degree heating weeks for coral cover, and depth, degree heating weeks, chlorophyll a, and cyclone exposure for macroalgal cover, however, all threshold values were variable among island groups. Our findings demonstrate that inshore coral reef communities are typically structured by broadscale climatic perturbations, superimposed upon unique sets of local-scale drivers. Although rapidly escalating climate change impacts are the largest threat to coral reefs of the GBRMP and globally, our findings suggest that proactive management actions that effectively reduce chronic stressors at local scales should contribute to improved reef resistance and recovery potential following acute climatic disturbances.

A flood of information: Using Sentinel-3 water colour products to assure continuity in the monitoring of water quality trends in the Great Barrier Reef (Australia).

An operational method to assess trends in marine water composition and ecosystem health during flood periods has been developed for the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Queensland, Australia. This method integrates satellite water colour data with field water quality and ecosystem monitoring data and involves the classification of Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS satellite) pixels into six distinct water bodies using a "wet season" colour scale developed specifically for the GBR. Using this information, several monitoring and reporting products have been derived and are operationally implemented into a long-term water quality monitoring program for the GBR. However, MODIS sensors are aging and a long-term monitoring solution is needed. This study reviewed the water colour monitoring products currently used in the GBR. It tested the feasibility to transition these methods from historical MODIS satellite imagery to the new Sentinel-3 satellite of the European Space Agency and from the wet season colour scale to the historical Forel-Ule colour scale, using a freely-distributed Forel Ule (FU) Satellite Toolbox. Monitoring products derived from both satellites and colour scales showed very similar patterns across two case study regions of the GBR, the Wet Tropics and Burdekin marine regions, over the 2017-18 wet season. The results obtained in this study highlighted the potential of using FU Sentinel-3 imagery for the mapping of GBR marine water bodies, including flood conditions. Furthermore, the operational monitoring products and frameworks developed for the GBR are likely to provide valuable foundations for analysis of FU Sentinel-3 data in the future. Such satellite water colour datasets and frameworks will be instrumental to better understand the impact of floods and reduced water clarity on marine ecosystems, as well as to support water quality management and facilitate catchment management policy in the GBR and worldwide.

Defining wet season water quality target concentrations for ecosystem conservation using empirical light attenuation models: A case study in the Great Barrier Reef (Australia).

Optically active water quality components (OAC) transported by flood plumes to nearshore marine environments affect light levels. The definition of minimum OAC concentrations that must be maintained to sustain sufficient light levels for conservation of light-dependant coastal ecosystems exposed to flood waters is necessary to guide management actions in adjacent catchments. In this study, a framework for defining OAC target concentrations using empirical light attenuation models is proposed and applied to the Wet Tropics region of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) (Queensland, Australia). This framework comprises several steps: (i) light attenuation (Kd(PAR)) profiles and OAC measurements, including coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM), chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentrations collected in flood waters; (ii) empirical light attenuation models used to define the contribution of CDOM, Chl-a and SPM to the light attenuation, and; (iii) translation of empirical models into manageable OAC target concentrations specific for wet season conditions. Results showed that (i) Kd(PAR) variability in the Wet Tropics flood waters is driven primarily by SPM and CDOM, with a lower contribution from Chl-a (r2 = 0.5, p < 0.01), (ii) the relative contributions of each OAC varies across the different water bodies existing along flood waters and strongest Kd(PAR) predictions were achieved when the in-situ data were clustered into water bodies with similar satellite-derived colour characteristics ('brownish flood waters', r2 = 0.8, p < 0.01, 'greenish flood waters', r2 = 0.5, p < 0.01), and (iii) that Kd(PAR) simulations are sensitive to the angular distribution of the light field in the clearest flood water bodies. Empirical models developed were used to translate regional light guidelines (established for the GBR) into manageable OAC target concentrations. Preliminary results suggested that a 90th percentile SPM concentration of 11.4 mg L-1 should be maintained during the wet season to sustain favourable light levels for Wet Tropics coral reefs and seagrass ecosystems exposed to 'brownish' flood waters. Additional data will be collected to validate the light attenuation models and the wet season target concentration which in future will be incorporated into wider catchment modelling efforts to improve coastal water quality in the Wet Tropics and the GBR.

Effects of reduced water quality on coral reefs in and out of no-take marine reserves.

Near-shore marine environments are increasingly subjected to reduced water quality, and their ability to withstand it is critical to their persistence. The potential role marine reserves may play in mitigating the effects of reduced water quality has received little attention. We investigated the spatial and temporal variability in live coral and macro-algal cover and water quality during moderate and major flooding events of the Fitzroy River within the Keppel Bay region of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park from 2007 to 2013. We used 7 years of remote sensing data on water quality and data from long-term monitoring of coral reefs to quantify exposure of coral reefs to flood plumes. We used a distance linear model to partition the contribution of abiotic and biotic factors, including zoning, as drivers of the observed changes in coral and macro-algae cover. Moderate flood plumes from 2007 to 2009 did not affect coral cover on reefs in the Keppel Islands, suggesting the reef has intrinsic resistance against short-term exposure to reduced water quality. However, from 2009 to 2013, live coral cover declined by ∼ 50% following several weeks of exposure to turbid, low salinity water from major flood plume events in 2011 and subsequent moderate events in 2012 and 2013. Although the flooding events in 2012 and 2013 were smaller than the flooding events between 2007 to 2009, the ability of the reefs to withstand these moderate floods was lost, as evidenced by a ∼ 20% decline in coral cover between 2011 to 2013. Although zoning (no-take reserve or fished) was identified a significant driver of coral cover, we recorded consistently lower coral cover on reserve reefs than on fished reefs throughout the study period and significantly lower cover in 2011. Our findings suggest that even reefs with an inherent resistance to reduced water quality are not able to withstand repeated disturbance events. The limitations of reserves in mitigating the effects of reduced water quality on near-shore coral reefs underscores the importance of integrated management approaches that combine effective land-based management with networks of no-take reserves.

Using MODIS data for understanding changes in seagrass meadow health: a case study in the Great Barrier Reef (Australia).

Stretching more than 2000 km along the Queensland coast, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBR) shelters over 43,000 square km of seagrass meadows. Despite the status of marine protected area and World Heritage listing of the GBR, local seagrass meadows are under stress from reduced water quality levels; with reduction in the amount of light available for seagrass photosynthesis defined as the primary cause of seagrass loss throughout the GBR. Methods have been developed to map GBR plume water types by using MODIS quasi-true colour (hereafter true colour) images reclassified in function of their dominant colour. These data can be used as an interpretative tool for understanding changes in seagrass meadow health (as defined in this study by the seagrass area and abundance) at different spatial and temporal scales. We tested this method in Cleveland Bay, in the northern GBR, where substantial loss in seagrass area and biomass was detected by annual monitoring from 2007 to 2011. A strong correlation was found between bay-wide seagrass meadow area and biomass and exposure to turbid Primary (sediment-dominated) water type. There was also a strong correlation between the changes of biomass and area of individual meadows and exposure of seagrass ecosystems to Primary water type over the 5-year period. Seagrass meadows were also grouped according to the dominant species within each meadow, irrespective of location within Cleveland Bay. These consolidated community types did not correlate well with the exposure to Primary water type, and this is likely to be due to local environmental conditions with the individual meadows that comprise these groupings. This study proved that remote sensing data provide the synoptic window and repetitivity required to investigate changes in water quality conditions over time. Remote sensing data provide an opportunity to investigate the risk of marine-coastal ecosystems to light limitation due to increased water turbidity when in situ water quality data is not available or is insufficient.

Using MODIS data for mapping of water types within river plumes in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia: towards the production of river plume risk maps for reef and seagrass ecosystems.

River plumes are the major transport mechanism for nutrients, sediments and other land-based pollutants into the Great Barrier Reef (GBR, Australia) and are a major threat to coastal and marine ecosystems such as coral reefs and seagrass beds. Understanding the spatial extent, frequency of occurrence, loads and ecological impacts of land-based pollutants discharged through river plumes is essential to drive catchment management actions. In this study, a framework to produce river plume risk maps for seagrass and coral ecosystems, using supervised classification of MODIS Level 2 (L2) satellite products, is presented. Based on relevant L2 thresholds, river plumes are classified into Primary, Secondary, and Tertiary water types, which represent distinct water quality (WQ) parameters concentrations and combinations. Annual water type maps are produced over three wet seasons (2010-2013) as a case of study. These maps provide a synoptic basis to assess the likelihood and magnitude of the risk of reduced coastal WQ associated with the river discharge (river plume risk) and in combination with sound knowledge of the regional ecosystems can serve as the basis to assess potential ecological impacts for coastal and marine GBR ecosystems. The methods described herein provide relevant and easily reproducible large-scale information for river plume risk assessment and management.

A novel approach to model exposure of coastal-marine ecosystems to riverine flood plumes based on remote sensing techniques.

Increased loads of land-based pollutants are a major threat to coastal-marine ecosystems. Identifying the affected marine areas and the scale of influence on ecosystems is critical to assess the impacts of degraded water quality and to inform planning for catchment management and marine conservation. Studies using remotely-sensed data have contributed to our understanding of the occurrence and influence of river plumes, and to our ability to assess exposure of marine ecosystems to land-based pollutants. However, refinement of plume modeling techniques is required to improve risk assessments. We developed a novel, complementary, approach to model exposure of coastal-marine ecosystems to land-based pollutants. We used supervised classification of MODIS-Aqua true-color satellite imagery to map the extent of plumes and to qualitatively assess the dispersal of pollutants in plumes. We used the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), the world's largest coral reef system, to test our approach. We combined frequency of plume occurrence with spatially distributed loads (based on a cost-distance function) to create maps of exposure to suspended sediment and dissolved inorganic nitrogen. We then compared annual exposure maps (2007-2011) to assess inter-annual variability in the exposure of coral reefs and seagrass beds to these pollutants. We found this method useful to map plumes and qualitatively assess exposure to land-based pollutants. We observed inter-annual variation in exposure of ecosystems to pollutants in the GBR, stressing the need to incorporate a temporal component into plume exposure/risk models. Our study contributes to our understanding of plume spatial-temporal dynamics of the GBR and offers a method that can also be applied to monitor exposure of coastal-marine ecosystems to plumes and explore their ecological influences.