Seasonal asthma in Melbourne, Australia, and some observations on the occurrence of thunderstorm asthma and its predictability.

We examine the seasonality of asthma-related hospital admissions in Melbourne, Australia, in particular the contribution and predictability of episodic thunderstorm asthma. Using a time-series ecological approach based on asthma admissions to Melbourne metropolitan hospitals, we identified seasonal peaks in asthma admissions that were centred in late February, June and mid-November. These peaks were most likely due to the return to school, winter viral infections and seasonal allergies, respectively. We performed non-linear statistical regression to predict daily admission rates as functions of the seasonal cycle, weather conditions, reported thunderstorms, pollen counts and air quality. Important predictor variables were the seasonal cycle and mean relative humidity in the preceding two weeks, with higher humidity associated with higher asthma admissions. Although various attempts were made to model asthma admissions, none of the models explained substantially more variation above that associated with the annual cycle. We also identified a list of high asthma admissions days (HAADs). Most HAADs fell in the late-February return-to-school peak and the November allergy peak, with the latter containing the greatest number of daily admissions. Many HAADs in the spring allergy peak may represent episodes of thunderstorm asthma, as they were associated with rainfall, thunderstorms, high ambient grass pollen levels and high humidity, a finding that suggests thunderstorm asthma is a recurrent phenomenon in Melbourne that occurs roughly once per five years. The rarity of thunderstorm asthma events makes prediction challenging, underscoring the importance of maintaining high standards of asthma management, both for patients and health professionals, especially during late spring and early summer.

On the use of composite analyses to form physical hypotheses: An example from heat wave - SST associations.

This paper highlights some caveats in using composite analyses to form physical hypotheses on the associations between environmental variables. This is illustrated using a specific example, namely the apparent links between heat waves (HWs) and sea surface temperatures (SSTs). In this case study, a composite analysis is performed to show the large-scale and regional SST conditions observed during summer HWs in Perth, southwest Australia. Composite results initially point to the importance of the subtropical South Indian Ocean, where physically coherent SST dipole anomalies appear to form a necessary condition for HWs to develop across southwest Australia. However, sensitivity tests based on pattern correlation analyses indicate that the vast majority of days when the identified SST pattern appears are overwhelmingly not associated with observed HWs, which suggests that this is definitely not a sufficient condition for HW development. Very similar findings are obtained from the analyses of 15 coupled climate model simulations. The results presented here have pertinent implications and applications for other climate case studies, and highlight the importance of applying comprehensive statistical approaches before making physical inferences on apparent climate associations.

Heat stress during the Black Saturday event in Melbourne, Australia.

The Black Saturday bushfire event of February 7, 2009, devastated the state of Victoria, Australia, resulting in 173 deaths. On this day, the maximum temperature in Melbourne (state capital of Victoria, population 4 million people) exceeded 46 °C, there were wind gusts of over 80 km h(-1) and the relative humidity dropped below 5 %. We investigated the severe meteorological conditions of Black Saturday and the risk of heat stress and dehydration for the residents of Melbourne. This was through the analysis of weather station data, air pollution data, the apparent temperature (AT) and the COMfort FormulA human energy budget model. A very strong pressure gradient caused hot and dry air to be advected to Melbourne from the desert interior of Australia creating the extreme weather conditions. The AT showed that on Black Saturday, heat stress conditions were present, though underrepresented due to assumptions in the AT formula. Further investigation into the human energy budget revealed that the conditions required a sweating rate of 1.4 kg h(-1) to prevent heat accumulation into the body. If sweating stopped, hyperthermia could occur in 15 min. Sensitivity tests indicated that the dry air and strong winds on Black Saturday helped to release latent heat, but the required sweating rate was virtually unattainable for an average person and would result in intense dehydration. Air particulates were at dangerous concentrations in Melbourne on Black Saturday, further intensifying the stresses to the human body. In the future, we recommend that the AT is not used as a thermal comfort measure as it underestimates the physical stress people experience.

A new 'bio-comfort' perspective for Melbourne based on heat stress, air pollution and pollen.

Humans are at risk from exposure to extremes in their environment, yet there is no consistent way to fully quantify and understand the risk when considering more than just meteorological variables. An outdoor 'bio-comfort' threshold is defined for Melbourne, Australia using a combination of heat stress, air particulate concentration and grass pollen count, where comfortable conditions imply an ideal range of temperature, humidity and wind speed, acceptable levels of air particulates and a low pollen count. This is a new approach to defining the comfort of human populations. While other works have looked into the separate impacts of different variables, this is the first time that a unified bio-comfort threshold is suggested. Composite maps of surface pressure are used to illustrate the genesis and evolution of the atmospheric structures conducive to an uncomfortable day. When there is an uncomfortable day due to heat stress conditions in Melbourne, there is a high pressure anomaly to the east bringing warm air from the northern interior of Australia. This anomaly is part of a slow moving blocking high originating over the Indian Ocean. Uncomfortable days due to high particulate levels have an approaching cold front. However, for air particulate cases during the cold season there are stable atmospheric conditions enhanced by a blocking high emanating from Australia and linking with the Antarctic continent. Finally, when grass pollen levels are high, there are northerly winds carrying the pollen from rural grass lands to Melbourne, due to a stationary trough of low pressure inland. Analysis into days with multiple types of stress revealed that the atmospheric signals associated with each type of discomfort are present regardless of whether the day is uncomfortable due to one or multiple variables. Therefore, these bio-comfort results are significant because they offer a degree of predictability for future uncomfortable days in Melbourne.

On the causes of variability in amounts of airborne grass pollen in Melbourne, Australia.

In Melbourne, Australia, airborne grass pollen is the predominant cause of hay fever (seasonal rhinitis) during late spring and early summer, with levels of airborne grass pollen also influencing hospital admissions for asthma. In order to improve predictions of conditions that are potentially hazardous to susceptible individuals, we have sought to better understand the causes of diurnal, intra-seasonal and inter-seasonal variability of atmospheric grass pollen concentrations (APC) by analysing grass pollen count data for Melbourne for 16 grass pollen seasons from 1991 to 2008 (except 1994 and 1995). Some of notable features identified in this analysis were that on days when either extreme (>100 pollen grains m(-3)) or high (50-100 pollen grains m(-3)) levels of grass pollen were recorded the winds were of continental origin. In contrast, on days with a low (<20 pollen grains m(-3)) concentration of grass pollen, winds were of maritime origin. On extreme and high grass pollen days, a peak in APC occurred on average around 1730 hours, probably due to a reduction in surface boundary layer turbulence. The sum of daily APC for each grass pollen season was highly correlated (r = 0.79) with spring rainfall in Melbourne for that year, with about 60% of a declining linear trend across the study period being attributable to a reduction of meat cattle and sheep (and hence grazing land) in rural areas around Melbourne. Finally, all of the ten extreme pollen events (3 days or more with APC > 100 pollen grains m(-3)) during the study period were characterised by an average downward vertical wind anomaly in the surface boundary layer over Melbourne. Together these findings form a basis for a fine resolution atmospheric general circulation model for grass pollen in Melbourne's air that can be used to predict daily (and hourly) APC. This information will be useful to those sectors of Melbourne's population that suffer from allergic problems.

Large-scale factors in tropical and extratropical cyclone transition and extreme weather events.

Transition mechanisms characterizing changes from hurricanes to midlatitude cyclones and vice-versa (extratropical and tropical transition) have become a topic of increasing interest, partially because of their association with recent unusual storms that have developed in different ocean basins of both hemispheres. The aim of this work is to discuss some recent cases of transition and highly unusual hurricane developments and to address some of their wider implications for climate science. Frequently those dramatic cyclones are responsible for severe weather, potentially causing significant damage to property and infrastructure. An additional manifestation discussed here is their association with cold surges, a topic that has been very little explored in the literature. In the Southern Hemisphere, the first South Atlantic hurricane, Catarina, developed in March 2004 under very unusual large-scale conditions. That exceptional cyclone is viewed as a case of tropical transition facilitated by a well-developed blocking structure. A new index for monitoring tropical transition in the subtropical South Atlantic is discussed. This "South Atlantic index" is used to show that the unusual flow during and prior to Catarina's genesis can be attributed to tropical/extratropical interaction mechanisms. The "Donald Duck" case in Australia and Vince in the North Atlantic have also been examined and shown to belong to a category of hybrid-transitioning systems that will achieve at least partial tropical transition. While clearly more research is needed on the topic of transition, as we gain further insight, it is becoming increasingly apparent that features of large-scale circulation do play a fundamental role. A complex interaction between an extratropical transition case and an extreme summer cold surge affecting southeastern Australia is discussed as an example of wider climate implications.