Systematic Assessment of Shock Severity in Postoperative Cardiac Surgery Patients.

BACKGROUND: The Society for Cardiovascular Angiography and Interventions (SCAI) shock classification has been shown to provide robust mortality risk stratification in a variety of cardiovascular patients. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to evaluate the SCAI shock classification in postoperative cardiac surgery intensive care unit (CSICU) patients. METHODS: This study retrospectively analyzed 26,792 postoperative CSICU admissions at a heart center between 2012 and 2022. Patients were classified into SCAI shock stages A to E using electronic health record data. Moreover, the impact of late deterioration (LD) as an additional risk modifier was investigated. RESULTS: The proportions of patients in SCAI shock stages A to E were 24.4%, 18.8%, 8.4%, 35.5%, and 12.9%, and crude hospital mortality rates were 0.4%, 0.6%, 3.3%, 4.9%, and 30.2%, respectively. Similarly, the prevalence of postoperative complications and organ dysfunction increased across SCAI shock stages. After multivariable adjustment, each higher SCAI shock stage was associated with increased hospital mortality (adjusted OR: 1.26-16.59) compared with SCAI shock stage A, as was LD (adjusted OR: 8.2). The SCAI shock classification demonstrated a strong diagnostic performance for hospital mortality (area under the receiver operating characteristic: 0.84), which noticeably increased when LD was incorporated into the model (area under the receiver operating characteristic: 0.90). CONCLUSIONS: The SCAI shock classification effectively risk-stratifies postoperative CSICU patients for mortality, postoperative complications, and organ dysfunction. Its application could, therefore, be extended to the field of cardiac surgery as a triage tool in postoperative care and as a selection criterion in research.

Detection and analysis of cerebral aneurysms based on X-ray rotational angiography - the CADA 2020 challenge.

The Cerebral Aneurysm Detection and Analysis (CADA) challenge was organized to support the development and benchmarking of algorithms for detecting, analyzing, and risk assessment of cerebral aneurysms in X-ray rotational angiography (3DRA) images. 109 anonymized 3DRA datasets were provided for training, and 22 additional datasets were used to test the algorithmic solutions. Cerebral aneurysm detection was assessed using the F2 score based on recall and precision, and the fit of the delivered bounding box was assessed using the distance to the aneurysm. The segmentation quality was measured using the Jaccard index and a combination of different surface distance measures. Systematic errors were analyzed using volume correlation and bias. Rupture risk assessment was evaluated using the F2 score. 158 participants from 22 countries registered for the CADA challenge. The U-Net-based detection solutions presented by the community show similar accuracy compared to experts (F2 score 0.92), with a small number of missed aneurysms with diameters smaller than 3.5 mm. In addition, the delineation of these structures, based on U-Net variations, is excellent, with a Jaccard score of 0.92. The rupture risk estimation methods achieved an F2 score of 0.71. The performance of the detection and segmentation solutions is equivalent to that of human experts. The best results are obtained in rupture risk estimation by combining different image-based, morphological, and computational fluid dynamic parameters using machine learning methods. Furthermore, we evaluated the best methods pipeline, from detecting and delineating the vessel dilations to estimating the risk of rupture. The chain of these methods achieves an F2-score of 0.70, which is comparable to applying the risk prediction to the ground-truth delineation (0.71).

Using interpretability approaches to update "black-box" clinical prediction models: an external validation study in nephrology.

Despite advances in machine learning-based clinical prediction models, only few of such models are actually deployed in clinical contexts. Among other reasons, this is due to a lack of validation studies. In this paper, we present and discuss the validation results of a machine learning model for the prediction of acute kidney injury in cardiac surgery patients initially developed on the MIMIC-III dataset when applied to an external cohort of an American research hospital. To help account for the performance differences observed, we utilized interpretability methods based on feature importance, which allowed experts to scrutinize model behavior both at the global and local level, making it possible to gain further insights into why it did not behave as expected on the validation cohort. The knowledge gleaned upon derivation can be potentially useful to assist model update during validation for more generalizable and simpler models. We argue that interpretability methods should be considered by practitioners as a further tool to help explain performance differences and inform model update in validation studies.

Deep-learning-based real-time prediction of acute kidney injury outperforms human predictive performance.

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a major complication after cardiothoracic surgery. Early prediction of AKI could prompt preventive measures, but is challenging in the clinical routine. One important reason is that the amount of postoperative data is too massive and too high-dimensional to be effectively processed by the human operator. We therefore sought to develop a deep-learning-based algorithm that is able to predict postoperative AKI prior to the onset of symptoms and complications. Based on 96 routinely collected parameters we built a recurrent neural network (RNN) for real-time prediction of AKI after cardiothoracic surgery. From the data of 15,564 admissions we constructed a balanced training set (2224 admissions) for the development of the RNN. The model was then evaluated on an independent test set (350 admissions) and yielded an area under curve (AUC) (95% confidence interval) of 0.893 (0.862-0.924). We compared the performance of our model against that of experienced clinicians. The RNN significantly outperformed clinicians (AUC = 0.901 vs. 0.745, p < 0.001) and was overall well calibrated. This was not the case for the physicians, who systematically underestimated the risk (p < 0.001). In conclusion, the RNN was superior to physicians in the prediction of AKI after cardiothoracic surgery. It could potentially be integrated into hospitals' electronic health records for real-time patient monitoring and may help to detect early AKI and hence modify the treatment in perioperative care.

Machine learning for real-time prediction of complications in critical care: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: The large amount of clinical signals in intensive care units can easily overwhelm health-care personnel and can lead to treatment delays, suboptimal care, or clinical errors. The aim of this study was to apply deep machine learning methods to predict severe complications during critical care in real time after cardiothoracic surgery. METHODS: We used deep learning methods (recurrent neural networks) to predict several severe complications (mortality, renal failure with a need for renal replacement therapy, and postoperative bleeding leading to operative revision) in post cardiosurgical care in real time. Adult patients who underwent major open heart surgery from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2016, in a German tertiary care centre for cardiovascular diseases formed the main derivation dataset. We measured the accuracy and timeliness of the deep learning model's forecasts and compared predictive quality to that of established standard-of-care clinical reference tools (clinical rule for postoperative bleeding, Simplified Acute Physiology Score II for mortality, and the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes staging criteria for acute renal failure) using positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value, sensitivity, specificity, area under the curve (AUC), and the F1 measure (which computes a harmonic mean of sensitivity and PPV). Results were externally retrospectively validated with 5898 cases from the published MIMIC-III dataset. FINDINGS: Of 47 559 intensive care admissions (corresponding to 42 007 patients), we included 11 492 (corresponding to 9269 patients). The deep learning models yielded accurate predictions with the following PPV and sensitivity scores: PPV 0·90 and sensitivity 0·85 for mortality, 0·87 and 0·94 for renal failure, and 0·84 and 0·74 for bleeding. The predictions significantly outperformed the standard clinical reference tools, improving the absolute complication prediction AUC by 0·29 (95% CI 0·23-0·35) for bleeding, by 0·24 (0·19-0·29) for mortality, and by 0·24 (0·13-0·35) for renal failure (p<0·0001 for all three analyses). The deep learning methods showed accurate predictions immediately after patient admission to the intensive care unit. We also observed an increase in performance in our validation cohort when the machine learning approach was tested against clinical reference tools, with absolute improvements in AUC of 0·09 (95% CI 0·03-0·15; p=0·0026) for bleeding, of 0·18 (0·07-0·29; p=0·0013) for mortality, and of 0·25 (0·18-0·32; p<0·0001) for renal failure. INTERPRETATION: The observed improvements in prediction for all three investigated clinical outcomes have the potential to improve critical care. These findings are noteworthy in that they use routinely collected clinical data exclusively, without the need for any manual processing. The deep machine learning method showed AUC scores that significantly surpass those of clinical reference tools, especially soon after admission. Taken together, these properties are encouraging for prospective deployment in critical care settings to direct the staff's attention towards patients who are most at risk. FUNDING: No specific funding.