Ageing in Asia: Beyond the Astana Declaration Towards Financing Long-term Care for All Comment on "Financing Long-term Care: Lessons From Japan".

The Astana Declaration on primary healthcare in 2018 was the attempt to revive the ideals of the World Health Organization (WHO) Alma-Ata Declaration 40 years later, together with a call for the political will to provide adequate financing at acceptable quality of care. This approach is taken to achieve the past ideals of Health for All, given the new challenges of universal health coverage. The economic case for primary healthcare is justified against the growing demand due in part to the growing costs of chronic conditions and the rise of ageing population, other than the supply-side factors of the healthcare industry. Past healthcare systems have evolved greater roles of the state versus the market, but few have involved the Third Sector or civil society in more integrated ways to provide and finance long-term care (LTC) with population ageing. From the extremes of the communist state to capitalist free markets, an optimal public-private system has to reach a balance in access, cost and quality for health and LTC. Recent studies of health and LTC have distilled newer developments in public-private mixes of provision, financing and regulation, in response to the needs of fast-ageing Asian societies. While Japan was the oldest country in the world, other countries in Asia have caught up and are now acknowledged where innovative models of integrated eldercare under economic limits, hold great promise of their transferability to the rest of ageing societies. Besides other forms of integrated LTC delivery with traditional systems, newer forms of financing like savings funds and superannuation have been developed, with participation from government, industry and civil society. There is much to learn from the new Asian models of financing, using appropriate technology and social innovations, and integrating health and social systems for LTC.

Long-Term Care Policy: Singapore's Experience.

Singapore, like many developed countries, is facing the challenge of a rapidly aging population and the increasing need to provide long-term care (LTC) services for elderly in the community. The Singapore government's philosophy on care for the elderly is that the family should be the first line of support, and it has relied on voluntary welfare organizations (VWOs) or charities for the bulk of LTC service provision. For LTC financing, it has emphasized the principles of co-payment and targeting of state support to the low-income population through means-tested government subsidies. It has also instituted ElderShield, a national severe disability insurance scheme. This paper discusses some of the challenges facing LTC policy in Singapore, particularly the presence of perverse financial incentives for hospitalization, the pitfalls of over-reliance on VWOs, and the challenges facing informal family caregivers. It discusses the role of private LTC insurance in LTC financing, bearing in mind demand- and supply-side failures that have plagued the private LTC insurance market. It suggests the need for more standardized needs assessment and portable LTC benefits, with reference to the Japanese Long-Term Care Insurance program, and also discusses the need to provide more support to informal family caregivers.

Southeast Asian cooperation in health: a comparative perspective on regional health governance in ASEAN and the EU.

Globalization has led to new health challenges for the twenty-first century. These new health challenges have transnational implications and involve a large range of actors and stakeholders. National governments no longer hold the sole responsibility for the health of their people. These changes in health trends have led to the rise of global health governance as a theoretical notion for health policy making. The Southeast Asian region is particularly prone to public health threats such as emerging infectious diseases and faces future health challenges including those of noncommunicable diseases. This study looks at the potential of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as a regional organization to lead a regional dynamic for health cooperation in order to overcome these challenges. Through a comparative study with the regional mechanisms of the European Union (EU) for health cooperation, we look at how ASEAN could maximize its potential as a global health actor. Our study is based on primary research and semistructured field interviews. To illustrate our arguments, we refer to the extent of regional cooperation for health in ASEAN and the EU for (re)emerging infectious disease control and for tobacco control. We argue that regional institutions and a network of civil society organizations are crucial in relaying global initiatives, and ensuring the effective implementation of global guidelines at the national level. ASEAN's role as a regional body for health governance will depend both on greater horizontal and vertical integration through enhanced regional mechanisms and a wider matrix of cooperation.

Medical tourism and policy implications for health systems: a conceptual framework from a comparative study of Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia.

Medical tourism is a growing phenomenon with policy implications for health systems, particularly of destination countries. Private actors and governments in Southeast Asia are promoting the medical tourist industry, but the potential impact on health systems, particularly in terms of equity in access and availability for local consumers, is unclear. This article presents a conceptual framework that outlines the policy implications of medical tourism's growth for health systems, drawing on the cases of Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia, three regional hubs for medical tourism, via an extensive review of academic and grey literature. Variables for further analysis of the potential impact of medical tourism on health systems are also identified. The framework can provide a basis for empirical, in country studies weighing the benefits and disadvantages of medical tourism for health systems. The policy implications described are of particular relevance for policymakers and industry practitioners in other Southeast Asian countries with similar health systems where governments have expressed interest in facilitating the growth of the medical tourist industry. This article calls for a universal definition of medical tourism and medical tourists to be enunciated, as well as concerted data collection efforts, to be undertaken prior to any meaningful empirical analysis of medical tourism's impact on health systems.

Health and health-care systems in southeast Asia: diversity and transitions.

Southeast Asia is a region of enormous social, economic, and political diversity, both across and within countries, shaped by its history, geography, and position as a major crossroad of trade and the movement of goods and services. These factors have not only contributed to the disparate health status of the region's diverse populations, but also to the diverse nature of its health systems, which are at varying stages of evolution. Rapid but inequitable socioeconomic development, coupled with differing rates of demographic and epidemiological transitions, have accentuated health disparities and posed great public health challenges for national health systems, particularly the control of emerging infectious diseases and the rise of non-communicable diseases within ageing populations. While novel forms of health care are evolving in the region, such as corporatised public health-care systems (government owned, but operating according to corporate principles and with private-sector participation) and financing mechanisms to achieve universal coverage, there are key lessons for health reforms and decentralisation. New challenges have emerged with rising trade in health services, migration of the health workforce, and medical tourism. Juxtaposed between the emerging giant economies of China and India, countries of the region are attempting to forge a common regional identity, despite their diversity, to seek mutually acceptable and effective solutions to key regional health challenges. In this first paper in the Lancet Series on health in southeast Asia, we present an overview of key demographic and epidemiological changes in the region, explore challenges facing health systems, and draw attention to the potential for regional collaboration in health.

Economic analysis of pandemic influenza vaccination strategies in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: All influenza pandemic plans advocate pandemic vaccination. However, few studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of different vaccination strategies. This paper compares the economic outcomes of vaccination compared with treatment with antiviral agents alone, in Singapore. METHODOLOGY: We analyzed the economic outcomes of pandemic vaccination (immediate vaccination and vaccine stockpiling) compared with treatment-only in Singapore using a decision-based model to perform cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses. We also explored the annual insurance premium (willingness to pay) depending on the perceived risk of the next pandemic occurring. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The treatment-only strategy resulted in 690 deaths, 13,950 hospitalization days, and economic cost of USD$497 million. For immediate vaccination, at vaccine effectiveness of >55%, vaccination was cost-beneficial over treatment-only. Vaccine stockpiling is not cost-effective in most scenarios even with 100% vaccine effectiveness. The annual insurance premium was highest with immediate vaccination, and was lower with increased duration to the next pandemic. The premium was also higher with higher vaccine effectiveness, attack rates, and case-fatality rates. Stockpiling with case-fatality rates of 0.4-0.6% would be cost-beneficial if vaccine effectiveness was >80%; while at case-fatality of >5% stockpiling would be cost-beneficial even if vaccine effectiveness was 20%. High-risk sub-groups warrant higher premiums than low-risk sub-groups. CONCLUSIONS: The actual pandemic vaccine effectiveness and lead time is unknown. Vaccine strategy should be based on perception of severity. Immediate vaccination is most cost-effective, but requires vaccines to be available when required. Vaccine stockpiling as insurance against worst-case scenarios is also cost-effective. Research and development is therefore critical to develop and stockpile cheap, readily available effective vaccines.

SARS in Singapore-challenges of a global health threat to local institutions.

SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) has been declared by WHO (World Health Organisation) as a global health threat. Within a period of four to five months in 2003, the disease infected some 8,000 people in more than 25 countries and left 774 dead. The many studies that have been done on the spread of SARS in Asia as well as countries as far flung as Germany and Canada have focused on the global dimension of the infectious disease as well as the speed of its spread upon emergence in southern China and then Hong Kong. Less attention has been paid to its spatial distribution at the national and local scales. This discussion focuses on the spread of SARS at the national and local spatial scales. In the process, the study presents the management of a hazard, in this case, an emerging infectious disease by national health care institutions such as the hospitals that ultimately proved to have been wholly unprepared for coping with at least the health aspects of the outcome of a globalised national agenda for growth and economic progress.

Urbanization and slum formation.

The formation of slums need not be inevitable with rapid urbanization. Such an argument appears to be contradicted by evidence of large slum populations in a large number of developing countries and particularly in rapidly urbanizing regions like Asia. The evidence discussed suggests that city authorities faced with rapid urban development lack the capacity to cope with the diverse demands for infrastructural provision to meet economic and social needs. Not only are strategic planning and intervention major issues in agenda to manage rapid urbanization, but city governments are not effectively linking the economic development trajectory to implications for urban growth and, hence, housing needs. In the following discussion, a case study is presented in support of the argument that city governments have to first recognize and then act to establish the link that is crucial between economic development, urban growth, and housing. This is the agendum that has been largely neglected by city and national governments that have been narrowly focused on economic growth with the consequent proliferation of slum formation as a housing solution.

Economics of neuraminidase inhibitor stock piling for pandemic influenza, Singapore.

We compared strategies for stock piling neuraminidase inhibitors to treat and prevent influenza in Singapore. Cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses, with Monte Carlo simulations, were used to determine economic outcomes. A pandemic in a population of 4.2 million would result in an estimated 525-1,775 deaths, 10,700-38,600 hospitalization days, and economic costs of 0.7 dollars to 2.2 billion Singapore dollars. The treatment-only strategy had optimal economic benefits: stock piles of antiviral agents for 40% of the population would save an estimated 418 lives and 414 million dollars, at a cost of 52.6 million dollars per shelf-life cycle of the stock pile. Prophylaxis was economically beneficial in high-risk subpopulations, which account for 78% of deaths, and in pandemics in which the death rate was >0.6%. Prophylaxis for pandemics with a 5% case-fatality rate would save 50,000 lives and 81 billion dollars. These models can help policymakers weigh the options for pandemic planning.

Towards a comparative analysis of health systems reforms in the Asia-Pacific Region.

The paper will review a representative selection of health systems reforms throughout the Asia-Pacific region to summarise the regional experience, identify the key lessons learnt from innovative health reforms and propose policy recommendations for sustainable health systems development. Broad descriptive trends of health systems reforms will be compared across the Asia-Pacific region within the context of rapid demographic, health and socio-economic development. More specifically, the study will address the following questions: 1. What are the main features of innovative health systems reforms? 2. How have these reforms affected the health systems? 3. Are there lessons and other implications from these reforms? A common conceptual framework to compare health systems reforms is adopted, using a standardised format to report data of national health systems. A classification of health systems is constructed by categorising them according to the level of development of their respective economies: 1) Developed 2 )High Performing 3) Newly Industrialising 4) Transitional, and 5) Developing. A typology of common issues, challenges and responses are generalised for these health systems at different stages of socio-economic development of individual countries. Evaluative criteria are proposed to compare the long-term effects of these reforms on national health systems in terms of efficiency, equity, quality and sustainability.