Enhancing urban flood forecasting in drainage systems using dynamic ensemble-based data mining.

This study presents a novel approach for urban flood forecasting in drainage systems using a dynamic ensemble-based data mining model which has yet to be utilised properly in this context. The proposed method incorporates an event identification technique and rainfall feature extraction to develop weak learner data mining models. These models are then stacked to create a time-series ensemble model using a decision tree algorithm and confusion matrix-based blending method. The proposed model was compared to other commonly used ensemble models in a real-world urban drainage system in the UK. The results show that the proposed model achieves a higher hit rate compared to other benchmark models, with a hit rate of around 85% vs 70 % for the next 3 h of forecasting. Additionally, the proposed smart model can accurately classify various timesteps of flood or non-flood events without significant lag times, resulting in fewer false alarms, reduced unnecessary risk management actions, and lower costs in real-time early warning applications. The findings also demonstrate that two features, "antecedent precipitation history" and "seasonal time occurrence of rainfall," significantly enhance the accuracy of flood forecasting with a hit rate accuracy ranging from 60 % to 10 % for a lead time of 15 min to 3 h.

Development of an artificial intelligence-based framework for biogas generation from a micro anaerobic digestion plant.

Despite the advantages of the Anaerobic Digestion (AD) technology for organic waste management, low system performance in biogas production negatively affects the wide spread of this technology. This paper develops a new artificial intelligence-based framework to predict and optimise the biogas generated from a micro-AD plant. The framework comprises some main steps including data collection and imputation, recurrent neural network/ Non-Linear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) model, shuffled frog leaping algorithm (SFLA) optimisation model and sensitivity analysis. The suggested framework was demonstrated by its application on a real micro-AD plant in London. The NARX model was developed for predicting yielded biogas based on the feeding data over preceding days in which their lag times were fine-tuned using the SFLA. The optimal daily feeding pattern to obtain maximum biogas generation was determined using the SFLA. The results show that the developed framework can improve the productivity of biogas in optimal operation strategy by 43 % compared to business as usual and the average biogas produced can raise from 3.26 to 4.34 m3/day. The optimal feeding pattern during a four-day cycle is to feed over the last two days and thereby reducing the operational costs related to the labour for feeding the plant in the first two days. The results of the sensitivity analysis show the optimised biogas generation is strongly influenced by the content of oats and catering waste as well as the optimal allocated day for adding feed to the main digester compared to other feed variables e.g., added water and soaked liner.