Regional impacts of warming on biodiversity and biomass in high latitude stream ecosystems across the Northern Hemisphere.

Warming can have profound impacts on ecological communities. However, explorations of how differences in biogeography and productivity might reshape the effect of warming have been limited to theoretical or proxy-based approaches: for instance, studies of latitudinal temperature gradients are often conflated with other drivers (e.g., species richness). Here, we overcome these limitations by using local geothermal temperature gradients across multiple high-latitude stream ecosystems. Each suite of streams (6-11 warmed by 1-15°C above ambient) is set within one of five regions (37 streams total); because the heating comes from the bedrock and is not confounded by changes in chemistry, we can isolate the effect of temperature. We found a negative overall relationship between diatom and invertebrate species richness and temperature, but the strength of the relationship varied regionally, declining more strongly in regions with low terrestrial productivity. Total invertebrate biomass increased with temperature in all regions. The latter pattern combined with the former suggests that the increased biomass of tolerant species might compensate for the loss of sensitive species. Our results show that the impact of warming can be dependent on regional conditions, demonstrating that local variation should be included in future climate projections rather than simply assuming universal relationships.

Diatoms can be an important exception to temperature-size rules at species and community levels of organization.

Climate warming has been linked to an apparent general decrease in body sizes of ectotherms, both across and within taxa, especially in aquatic systems. Smaller body size in warmer geographical regions has also been widely observed. Since body size is a fundamental determinant of many biological attributes, climate-warming-related changes in size could ripple across multiple levels of ecological organization. Some recent studies have questioned the ubiquity of temperature-size rules, however, and certain widespread and abundant taxa, such as diatoms, may be important exceptions. We tested the hypothesis that diatoms are smaller at warmer temperatures using a system of geothermally heated streams. There was no consistent relationship between size and temperature at either the population or community level. These field data provide important counterexamples to both James' and Bergmann's temperature-size rules, respectively, undermining the widely held assumption that warming favours the small. This study provides compelling new evidence that diatoms are an important exception to temperature-size rules for three reasons: (i) we use many more species than prior work; (ii) we examine both community and species levels of organization simultaneously; (iii) we work in a natural system with a wide temperature gradient but minimal variation in other factors, to achieve robust tests of hypotheses without relying on laboratory setups, which have limited realism. In addition, we show that interspecific effects were a bigger contributor to whole-community size differences, and are probably more ecologically important than more commonly studied intraspecific effects. These findings highlight the need for multispecies approaches in future studies of climate warming and body size.