Discovering and forecasting extreme events via active learning in neural operators.

Extreme events in society and nature, such as pandemic spikes, rogue waves or structural failures, can have catastrophic consequences. Characterizing extremes is difficult, as they occur rarely, arise from seemingly benign conditions, and belong to complex and often unknown infinite-dimensional systems. Such challenges render attempts at characterizing them moot. We address each of these difficulties by combining output-weighted training schemes in Bayesian experimental design (BED) with an ensemble of deep neural operators. This model-agnostic framework pairs a BED scheme that actively selects data for quantifying extreme events with an ensemble of deep neural operators that approximate infinite-dimensional nonlinear operators. We show that not only does this framework outperform Gaussian processes, but that (1) shallow ensembles of just two members perform best; (2) extremes are uncovered regardless of the state of the initial data (that is, with or without extremes); (3) our method eliminates 'double-descent' phenomena; (4) the use of batches of suboptimal acquisition samples compared to step-by-step global optima does not hinder BED performance; and (5) Monte Carlo acquisition outperforms standard optimizers in high dimensions. Together, these conclusions form a scalable artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted experimental infrastructure that can efficiently infer and pinpoint critical situations across many domains, from physical to societal systems.

Resolvent-based modeling of turbulent jet noise.

Resolvent analysis has demonstrated encouraging results for modeling coherent structures in jets when compared against their data-educed counterparts from high-fidelity large-eddy simulations (LES). We formulate resolvent analysis as an acoustic analogy that relates the near-field resolvent forcing to the near- and far-field pressure. We use an LES database of round, isothermal, Mach 0.9 and 1.5 jets to produce an ensemble of realizations for the acoustic field that we project onto a limited set of resolvent modes. In the near-field, we perform projections on a restricted acoustic output domain, r/D=[5,6], while the far-field projections are performed on a Kirchhoff surface comprising a 100-diameter arc centered at the nozzle. This allows the LES realizations to be expressed in the resolvent basis via a data-deduced, low-rank, cross-spectral density matrix. We find that a single resolvent mode reconstructs the most energetic regions of the acoustic field across Strouhal numbers, St=[0-1], and azimuthal wavenumbers, m=[0,2]. Finally, we present a simple function that results in a rank-1 resolvent model agreeing within 2 dB of the peak noise for both jets.

A cross-sectional study of the temporal evolution of electricity consumption of six commercial buildings.

Current approaches to building efficiency diagnoses include conventional energy audit techniques that can be expensive and time consuming. In contrast, virtual energy audits of readily available 15-minute-interval building electricity consumption are being explored to provide quick, inexpensive, and useful insights into building operation characteristics. A cross sectional analysis of six buildings in two different climate zones provides methods for data cleaning, population-based building comparisons, and relationships (correlations) of weather and electricity consumption. Data cleaning methods have been developed to categorize and appropriately filter or correct anomalous data including outliers, missing data, and erroneous values (resulting in < 0.5% anomalies). The utility of a cross-sectional analysis of a sample set of building's electricity consumption is found through comparisons of baseload, daily consumption variance, and energy use intensity. Correlations of weather and electricity consumption 15-minute interval datasets show important relationships for the heating and cooling seasons using computed correlations of a Time-Specific-Averaged-Ordered Variable (exterior temperature) and corresponding averaged variables (electricity consumption)(TSAOV method). The TSAOV method is unique as it introduces time of day as a third variable while also minimizing randomness in both correlated variables through averaging. This study found that many of the pair-wise linear correlation analyses lacked strong relationships, prompting the development of the new TSAOV method to uncover the causal relationship between electricity and weather. We conclude that a combination of varied HVAC system operations, building thermal mass, plug load use, and building set point temperatures are likely responsible for the poor correlations in the prior studies, while the correlation of time-specific-averaged-ordered temperature and corresponding averaged variables method developed herein adequately accounts for these issues and enables discovery of strong linear pair-wise correlation R values. TSAOV correlations lay the foundation for a new approach to building studies, that mitigates plug load interferences and identifies more accurate insights into weather-energy relationship for all building types. Over all six buildings analyzed the TSAOV method reported very significant average correlations per building of 0.94 to 0.82 in magnitude. Our rigorous statistics-based methods applied to 15-minute-interval electricity data further enables virtual energy audits of buildings to quickly and inexpensively inform energy savings measures.