Likelihood of Extreme Early Flight of Myzus persicae (Hemiptera: Aphididae) Across the UK.

Myzus persicae (Sulzer, Hemiptera: Aphididae) is a major global crop pest; it is the primary aphid vector for many damaging viruses and has developed resistance to most insecticides. In temperate regions, the risk of widespread crop infection and yield loss is heightened following warm winters, which encourage rapid population growth and early flight. Estimates of the frequency and magnitude of warm winters are, therefore, helpful for understanding and managing this risk. However, it is difficult to quantify the statistical distribution of climate events, particularly extremes, because climate observations represent just a small sample of the possible climate variations in a region. The purpose of this study was to establish a large-scale relationship between temperature and M. persicae observations across the UK and apply this to a very large ensemble of climate model simulations, which better sample the variability in climate, to quantify the current likelihood of extreme early M. persicae flight across the UK. The timing of M. persicae flight was shown to be significantly related to January-February mean temperature, where a 1°C warmer/cooler temperature relates to about 12 d earlier/later flight. Climate model simulations predict 40% likelihood of experiencing a year with unprecedented early M. persicae flight during the next decade in the UK. Results from this method can help crop managers assess the long-term viability of crops and management practices across the UK and provide early warning information for targeting pest surveillance activities on the locations and timings at highest risk of early M. persicae flight.

Spatial and habitat variation in aphid, butterfly, moth and bird phenologies over the last half century.

Global warming has advanced the timing of biological events, potentially leading to disruption across trophic levels. The potential importance of phenological change as a driver of population trends has been suggested. To fully understand the possible impacts, there is a need to quantify the scale of these changes spatially and according to habitat type. We studied the relationship between phenological trends, space and habitat type between 1965 and 2012 using an extensive UK dataset comprising 269 aphid, bird, butterfly and moth species. We modelled phenologies using generalized additive mixed models that included covariates for geographical (latitude, longitude, altitude), temporal (year, season) and habitat terms (woodland, scrub, grassland). Model selection showed that a baseline model with geographical and temporal components explained the variation in phenologies better than either a model in which space and time interacted or a habitat model without spatial terms. This baseline model showed strongly that phenologies shifted progressively earlier over time, that increasing altitude produced later phenologies and that a strong spatial component determined phenological timings, particularly latitude. The seasonal timing of a phenological event, in terms of whether it fell in the first or second half of the year, did not result in substantially different trends for butterflies. For moths, early season phenologies advanced more rapidly than those recorded later. Whilst temporal trends across all habitats resulted in earlier phenologies over time, agricultural habitats produced significantly later phenologies than most other habitats studied, probably because of nonclimatic drivers. A model with a significant habitat-time interaction was the best-fitting model for birds, moths and butterflies, emphasizing that the rates of phenological advance also differ among habitats for these groups. Our results suggest the presence of strong spatial gradients in mean seasonal timing and nonlinear trends towards earlier seasonal timing that varies in form and rate among habitat types.

Dynamics of PVY strains in field grown potato: Impact of strain competition and ability to overcome host resistance mechanisms.

Potato virus Y (PVY) is the most important viral pathogen affecting potato crops worldwide. PVY can be transmitted non-persistently by aphids that do not colonize the host plant, resulting in a rapid acquisition and transmission of the virus between plants. PVY exists as a complex of strains that can be distinguished according to their pathogenicity, serology and genomic analysis. While virus incidence remains low in Scottish seed potato crops, PVY has become the increasingly prevalent virus. The monitoring of PVYN and PVYO serotypes has revealed a recent shift towards PVYN which now accounts for more than 90% of all PVY cases. A survey of the molecular diversity of PVYN isolates indicated that 80%-90% belong to the recombinant European (EU)-NTN group, with North-American (NA)-NTN and non-recombinant EU-N variants accounting for the remainder. The shift from non-recombinant to recombinant PVY isolates is a common trend observed worldwide. Surveys of a range of PVY isolates representing the main strain and phylogenetic groups suggest that PVY has the ability to overcome hypersensitive response-mediated resistance with significant differences between isolates of the same strain group. Contrastingly, genes mediating extreme resistance (Ryadg, Rysto) provide efficient resistance to PVY transmission to progeny tubers. Transmission experiments in field conditions of PVY isolates representing the three main molecular groups (PVYO, PVYEU-NTN, PVYNA-NTN) indicate that PVYEU-NTN has the highest transmission rate. Our results suggest that PVYEU-NTN isolate has a competitive advantage over PVYO and PVYNA-NTN isolates which is likely to be an important factor in shaping the evolution of viruses and the population dynamics of PVY.

A metagenetic approach to determine the diversity and distribution of cyst nematodes at the level of the country, the field and the individual.

Distinct populations of the potato cyst nematode (PCN) Globodera pallida exist in the UK that differ in their ability to overcome various sources of resistance. An efficient method for distinguishing between populations would enable pathogen-informed cultivar choice in the field. Science and Advice for Scottish Agriculture (SASA) annually undertake national DNA diagnostic tests to determine the presence of PCN in potato seed and ware land by extracting DNA from soil floats. These DNA samples provide a unique resource for monitoring the distribution of PCN and further interrogation of the diversity within species. We identify a region of mitochondrial DNA descriptive of three main groups of G. pallida present in the UK and adopt a metagenetic approach to the sequencing and analysis of all SASA samples simultaneously. Using this approach, we describe the distribution of G. pallida mitotypes across Scotland with field-scale resolution. Most fields contain a single mitotype, one-fifth contain a mix of mitotypes, and less than 3% contain all three mitotypes. Within mixed fields, we were able to quantify the relative abundance of each mitotype across an order of magnitude. Local areas within mixed fields are dominated by certain mitotypes and indicate towards a complex underlying 'pathoscape'. Finally, we assess mitotype distribution at the level of the individual cyst and provide evidence of 'hybrids'. This study provides a method for accurate, quantitative and high-throughput typing of up to one thousand fields simultaneously, while revealing novel insights into the national genetic variability of an economically important plant parasite.

High-throughput diagnosis of potato cyst nematodes in soil samples.

Potato cyst nematode (PCN) is a damaging soilborne pest of potatoes which can cause major crop losses. In 2010, a new European Union directive (2007/33/EC) on the control of PCN came into force. Under the new directive, seed potatoes can only be planted on land which has been found to be free from PCN infestation following an official soil test. A major consequence of the new directive was the introduction of a new harmonized soil sampling rate resulting in a threefold increase in the number of samples requiring testing. To manage this increase with the same staffing resources, we have replaced the traditional diagnostic methods. A system has been developed for the processing of soil samples, extraction of DNA from float material, and detection of PCN by high-throughput real-time PCR. Approximately 17,000 samples are analyzed each year using this method. This chapter describes the high-throughput processes for the production of float material from soil samples, DNA extraction from the entire float, and subsequent detection and identification of PCN within these samples.

Long-term phenological trends, species accumulation rates, aphid traits and climate: five decades of change in migrating aphids.

Aphids represent a significant challenge to food production. The Rothamsted Insect Survey (RIS) runs a network of 12·2-m suction-traps throughout the year to collect migrating aphids. In 2014, the RIS celebrated its 50th anniversary. This paper marks that achievement with an extensive spatiotemporal analysis and the provision of the first British annotated checklist of aphids since 1964. Our main aim was to elucidate mechanisms that advance aphid phenology under climate change and explain these using life-history traits. We then highlight emerging pests using accumulation patterns. Linear and nonlinear mixed-effect models estimated the average rate of change per annum and effects of climate on annual counts, first and last flights and length of flight season since 1965. Two climate drivers were used: the accumulated day degrees above 16 °C (ADD16) indicated the potential for migration during the aphid season; the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) signalled the severity of the winter before migration took place. All 55 species studied had earlier first flight trends at rate of ß = -0·611 ± SE 0·015 days year(-1). Of these species, 49% had earlier last flights, but the average species effect appeared relatively stationary (ß = -0·010 ± SE 0·022 days year(-1)). Most species (85%) showed increasing duration of their flight season (ß = 0·336 ± SE 0·026 days year(-1)), even though only 54% increased their log annual count (ß = 0·002 ± SE <0·001 year(-1)). The ADD16 and NAO were shown to drive patterns in aphid phenology in a spatiotemporal context. Early in the year when the first aphids were migrating, the effect of the winter NAO was highly significant. Further into the year, ADD16 was a strong predictor. Latitude had a near linear effect on first flights, whereas longitude produced a generally less-clear effect on all responses. Aphids that are anholocyclic (permanently parthenogenetic) or are monoecious (non-host-alternating) were advancing their phenology faster than those that were not. Climate drives phenology and traits help explain how this takes place biologically. Phenology and trait ecology are critical to understanding the threat posed by emerging pests such as Myzus persicae nicotianae and Aphis fabae cirsiiacanthoidis, as revealed by the species accumulation analysis.