The impact of debt relief on under five mortality rate in Sub-Saharan Africa.

This paper examines the impact of the Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative on under five mortality rate (U5MR) in Sub-Saharan Africa. The HIPC Initiative involves debt forgiveness and the redirection of funds that were meant to service external debt towards the provision of social services and poverty reduction in eligible countries. The Initiative is akin to a natural experiment since some countries benefited while some did not, and the timing of debt forgiveness varied across countries. We exploit these variations to identify the impact of HIPC Initiative on child mortality using a dynamic panel data estimator. We find that participation in HIPC Initiative is associated with statistically significant decreases in U5MR. On the other hand, the impact of actual debt cancelled is statistically insignificant.

Screening for a Chronic Disease: A Multiple Stage Duration Model with Partial Observability.

We estimate a dynamic multi-stage duration model to investigate how early detection of diabetes can delay the onset of lower extremity complications and death. We allow for partial observability of the disease stage, unmeasured heterogeneity, and endogenous timing of diabetes screening. Timely diagnosis appears important. We evaluate the effectiveness of two potential policies to reduce the monetary costs of frequent screening in terms of lost longevity. Compared to the status quo, the more restrictive policy yields an implicit value for an additional year of life of about $50,000, while the less restrictive policy implies a value of about $120,000.

The Effect of the 2009 U.S. Preventive Services Task Force Breast Cancer Screening Recommendations on Mammography Rates.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the effect of a change in U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) screening guidelines on mammography rates in the United States. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In 2010, the year following the change in guidelines, 12-month mammography prevalence among women aged 40-49 years fell by 2.09 percentage points (95 percent confidence interval [CI]: -2.87 to -1.31) from 54.63 percent in 2008. For women aged 50-74 years, and aged 75 years and older, 12-month screening rates were 2.21 (95 percent CI: -2.65 to -1.77) and 3.60 (95 percent CI: -4.48 to -2.70) percentage points lower than those in 2008. In 2012, for women aged 40-49 years, 12-month prevalence fell to 52.51 percent, a decline of 2.12 percentage points (95 percent CI: -2.79 to -1.32) relative to screening rates prior the USPSTF announcement. For women aged 50-74 years and aged 75 years and older screening rates were 2.45 (95 percent CI: -2.96 to -2.07) and 5.71 (95 percent CI: -6.61 to -4.81) percentage points lower, respectively, in 2012 than in 2008. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates an immediate and lasting reduction in the rates of breast cancer screening among women of all age groups after the 2009 revision of screening guidelines by the USPSTF.

Causes of the change in the rates of mortality and severe complications of diabetes mellitus: 1992-2012.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the causes of the changes in the rates of mortality and select severe complications of diabetes mellitus, type 2 (T2D) among the elderly between 1992 and 2012. RESEARCH DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study design based on Medicare 5% administrative claims data from 1992 to 2012 was used. Traditional fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries, age 65 and older, diagnosed with T2D and living in the United States between 1992 and 2012 were included in the study. Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition was used to quantify the potential causes of the change in the rates of death, congestive heart failure and/or acute myocardial infarction, stroke, amputation of lower extremity and end-stage renal disease between 1992 and 2012. RESULTS: The number of beneficiaries in the analysis sample diagnosed with T2D increased from 152,191 in 1992 to 289,443 in 2012. Over the same time period, rates of mortality decreased by 1.2, congestive heart failure and/or acute myocardial infarction by 2.6, stroke by 1.6, amputation by 0.6 while rates of end-stage renal disease increased by 1.5 percentage points. Improvements in the management of precursor conditions and utilization of recommended healthcare services, not population composition, were the primary causes of the change. CONCLUSIONS: With the exception of end-stage renal disease, outcomes among Medicare beneficiaries diagnosed with T2D improved. Analysis suggests that persons diagnosed with T2D are living longer with fewer severe complications. Much of the improvement in outcomes likely reflects more regular contact with health professionals and better management of care.

Relation between BMI and diabetes mellitus and its complications among US older adults.

OBJECTIVES: This study examined relations between elevated body mass index (BMI) and time to diagnosis with type 2 diabetes mellitus and its complications among older adults in the United States. METHODS: Data came from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey, 1991-2010. A Cox proportional hazard model was used to assess relations between excess BMI at the first Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey interview and time to diabetes mellitus diagnosis, complications, and insulin dependence among Medicare beneficiaries, older than 65 years of age with no prior diabetes mellitus diagnosis, and who were not enrolled in Medicare Advantage (N = 14,657). RESULTS: Among individuals diagnosed as having diabetes mellitus, elevated BMIs were associated with a progressively higher risk of complications from diabetes mellitus. For women with a BMI ≥40, the risk of insulin dependence (hazard ratio [HR] 3.57; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.36-5.39) was twice that for women with 25 ≤ BMI < 27.5 (HR 1.77; 95% CI 1.33-2.33). A similar pattern was observed in risk of cardiovascular (25 ≤ BMI < 27.5: HR 1.34; 95% CI 1.15-1.54; BMI ≥40: HR 2.45; 95% CI 1.92-3.11), cerebrovascular (25 ≤ BMI < 27.5: HR 1.30; 95% CI 1.06-1.57; BMI ≥40: HR 2.00; 95% CI 1.42-2.81), renal (25 ≤ BMI < 27.5: HR 1.31; 95% CI 1.04-1.63; BMI ≥40: HR 2.23; 95% CI 1.54-3.22), and lower extremity complications (25 ≤ BMI < 27.5: HR 1.41; 95% CI 1.22-1.61; BMI ≥40: HR 2.95; 95% CI 2.35-3.69). CONCLUSIONS: Any increase in BMI above normal weight levels is associated with an increased risk of being diagnosed as having complications of diabetes mellitus. For men, the increased risk of these complications occurred at higher BMI levels than in women. Ocular complications occurred at higher BMI levels than other complication types in both men and women.

Social interactions and malaria preventive behaviors in sub-saharan Africa.

This paper examines the existence of social interactions in malaria preventive behaviors in Sub-Saharan Africa, that is, whether an individual's social environment has an influence on the individual's preventive behaviors. We focus on the two population groups which are the most vulnerable to malaria (children under 5 years and pregnant women) and on two preventive behaviors (sleeping under a bednet and taking intermittent preventive treatment during pregnancy). We define the social environment of the individual as people living in the same region. To detect social interactions, we calculate the size of the social multiplier by comparing the effects of an exogenous variable at individual and regional levels. Our data come from 92 surveys for 29 Sub-Saharan countries between 1999 and 2012, and they cover approximately 660,000 children and 95,000 women. Our results indicate that there are social interactions in malaria preventive behaviors in the form of social multipliers effects of women's education and household wealth. The long-run effects of these characteristics on preventive behaviors at the regional level are larger than those apparent at the individual level.

Has the European union achieved a single pharmaceutical market?

This paper explores price differences in the European Union (EU) pharmaceutical market, the EU's fifth largest industry. With the aim of enhancing quality of life along with industry competitiveness and R&D capability, many EU directives have been adopted to achieve a single EU-wide pharmaceutical market. Using annual 1994-2003 data on prices of molecules that treat cardiovascular disease, we examine whether drug price dispersion has indeed decreased across five EU countries. Hedonic regressions show that over time, cross-country price differences between Germany and three of the four other EU sample countries, France, Italy and Spain, have declined, with relative prices in all three as well as the fourth country, UK, rising during the period. We interpret this as evidence that the EU has come closer to achieving a single pharmaceutical market in response to increasing European Commission coordination efforts.

The effects of residential proximity to bars on alcohol consumption.

A person's decision to drink alcohol is potentially influenced by both price and availability of alcohol in the local area. This study uses longitudinal data from 1985 to 2001 to empirically assess the impact of distance from place of residence to bars on alcohol consumption in four large U.S. cities from 1985 to 2001. Density of bars within 0.5 km of a person's residence is associated with small increases in alcohol consumption as measured by: daily alcohol consumption (ml) drinks per week, and weekly consumption of beer, wine, and liquor. When person-specific fixed effects are included, the relationship between alcohol consumption and the number of bars within a 0.5 km radius of the person's place of residence disappears. Tests for endogeneity of the number of bars within the immediate vicinity of respondents' homes fail to reject the null hypothesis that the number of bars is exogenous. We conclude that bar density in the area surrounding the individuals' homes has at most a very small positive effect on alcohol consumption.

Pharmaceutical price differences in the EU: investigation from cardiovascular disease drugs.

Despite the market integration through the Single Market Program and European Monetary Union, and coordination efforts by the European Commission, the pharmaceutical industry in the EU has remained as separate markets in each member nation rather than integrated owing to several distinguished characteristics of the industry and member countries. As a result, there are large price differences across EU member nations. Although there are increasing harmonization efforts by the European Commission, price differences among the five major markets remain high. However, evidence from cardiovascular disease drugs shows that the average price paid for these treatments has been decreasing in recent years for five major pharmaceutical countries.

Longitudinal analysis of the relationship between regular eye examinations and changes in visual and functional status.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether regular eye examinations are associated with a greater or lesser rate of loss of ability to read newsprint, onset of blindness or low vision, or onset of limitations in instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) and activities of daily living (ADLs). DESIGN: A sample of 14,215 Medicare beneficiaries observed between 1994 and 1999 linked to the 1994 and 1999 National Long-Term Care Surveys (NLTCS). Effects of annual examinations were assessed using instrumental variables. SETTING: The Medicare-linked NLTCS is representative of U.S. elderly persons from 1994 to 1999. PARTICIPANTS: Longitudinal observational study of persons aged 65 and older. MEASUREMENTS: Change in self-reported and provider-reported vision and change in functional limitations associated with vision related to the number of years with eye examinations and other factors. RESULTS: Persons with more-regular eye examinations between 1994 and 1998 were less likely to have experienced a decline in vision or in functional status between 1994 and 1999. On average, an additional year with an eye examination was associated with a decrease in the probability of becoming unable to read newsprint of 0.12 (P=.03), a lower probability of onset of low vision or blindness of 0.009 (P=.06), and a decrease in the probability that the number of functional limitations increased of 0.13 (P=.002) for IADLs and 0.05 (P=.003) for ADLs. CONCLUSION: Elderly persons who have regular eye examinations experience less decline in vision and functional status.

The effect of the tobacco settlement and smoking bans on alcohol consumption.

In the last few years, the price of cigarettes has increased considerably in the USA. In addition, a number of states have also imposed smoking bans. These increases in the cost and barriers to smoking have created a natural experiment to study relationships between smoking and drinking behaviors. In this study, we employ data from the first six waves of the Health and Retirement Survey (HRS) to analyze the effects of smoking bans and cigarette prices on alcohol consumption. We also test if past cigarette and alcohol consumption affect current alcohol consumption as predicted by co-addiction models. We estimate dynamic panel models using GMM estimators. Our approach allows us to obtain consistent estimates irrespective of the number of time periods. The three main findings of this study are: (1) there is positive reinforcement effect of past cigarette consumption on current alcohol consumption, (2) smoking bans reduce alcohol consumption and (3) there is a positive effect of cigarette prices on alcohol consumption.

Monitoring visual status: why patients do or do not comply with practice guidelines.

OBJECTIVE: To determine factors affecting compliance with guidelines for annual eye examinations for persons diagnosed with diabetes mellitus (DM) or age-related macular degeneration (ARMD). DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING: Nationally representative, longitudinal sample of individuals 65+ drawn from the National Long-Term Care Survey (NLTCS) with linked Medicare claims records from 1991 to 1999. STUDY DESIGN: Medicare beneficiaries were followed from 1991 to 1999, unless mortality intervened. All claims data were analyzed for presence of ICD-9 codes indicating diagnosis of DM or ARMD and the performance of eye exams. The dependent variable was a binary indicator for whether a person had an eye exam or not during a 15-month period. Independent variables for demographics, living conditions, supplemental insurance, income, and other factors affecting the marginal cost and benefit of an eye exam were assessed to determine reasons for noncompliance. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Panel data were created from claims files, 1991-1999, merged with data from the NLTCS. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The probability of having an exam reflected perceived benefits, which vary by patient characteristics (e.g., education, no dementia), and factors associated with the ease of visit. African Americans were much less likely to be examined than were whites. CONCLUSIONS: Having an exam reflects multiple factors. However, much of the variation in the probability of an exam remained unexplained as were reasons for the racial differences in use.

Do routine eye exams improve vision?

We use a longitudinal national sample of Medicare claims linked to the National Long-Term Care Survey (NLTCS) to assess the productivity of routine eye examinations. Although such exams are widely recommended by professional organizations for certain populations, there is limited empirical evidence on the productivity of such care. We measure two outcomes, the ability to continue reading, and no onset of blindness or low vision, accounting for potential endogeneity of frequency of eye exams. Using instrumental variables, we find a statistically significant and beneficial effect of routine eye exams for both outcomes. Marginal effects for reading ability are large, but decline in the number of years with eye exams. Effects for blindness/low vision are smaller for the general elderly population, but larger for persons with diabetes. Instrumental variables provide a useful approach for assessing the productivity of particular interventions, particularly in situations in which randomized controlled trials are expensive or perhaps unethical and difficult to conduct over a lengthy time period.

Analysis of hospital length of stay and discharge destination using hazard functions with unmeasured heterogeneity.

The hospital length-of-stay and the discharge destination of a Medicare patient are the outcomes of one decision process involving the interests of the patient, the hospital, and the firms offering covered post-hospital care. We use a competing risk hazard estimation procedure and adjust for unobserved heterogeneity with a non-parametric technique to identify significant factors in the decision process. A patient's health and socio-economic characteristics, the availability of informal care, local market area conditions, and Medicare policies influence length-of-stay and discharge destination. The substitution we find between hospital and post-hospital care and among post-hospital care alternatives has policy implications for Medicare.

Are for-profit hospital conversions harmful to patients and to Medicare?

We examine how changes in hospital ownership to and from for-profit status affect quality and Medicare payments per hospital stay. We hypothesize that hospitals converting to for-profit ownership boost post acquisition profitability by reducing dimensions of quality not readily observed by patients and by raising prices. We find that 1-2 years after conversion to for-profit status, mortality of patients, which is difficult for outsiders to monitor, increases while hospital profitability rises markedly and staffing decreases. Thereafter, the decline in quality is much lower. A similar decline in quality is not observed after hospitals switch from for-profit to government or private nonprofit status.