Impact of Ebola virus nucleoprotein on VP40 virus-like particle production: a computational approach.

Ebola virus (EBOV) matrix protein VP40 can assemble and bud as virus-like particles (VLPs) when expressed alone in mammalian cells. Nucleoprotein (NP) could be recruited to VLPs as inclusion body (IB) when co-expressed, and increase VLP production. However, the mechanism behind it remains unclear. Here, we use a computational approach to study NP-VP40 interactions. Our simulations indicate that NP may enhance VLP production through stabilizing VP40 filaments and accelerating the VLP budding step. Further, both the relative timing and amount of NP expression compared to VP40 are important for the effective production of IB-containing VLPs. We predict that relative NP/VP40 expression ratio and time are important for efficient production of IB-containing VLPs. We conclude that disrupting the expression timing and amount of NP and VP40 could provide new avenues to treat EBOV infection. This work provides quantitative insights into EBOV proteins interactions and how virion generation and drug efficacy could be influenced.

In silico agent-based modeling approach to characterize multiple in vitro tuberculosis infection models.

In vitro models of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection are a valuable tool for examining host-pathogen interactions and screening drugs. With the development of more complex in vitro models, there is a need for tools to help analyze and integrate data from these models. To this end, we introduce an agent-based model (ABM) representation of the interactions between immune cells and bacteria in an in vitro setting. This in silico model was used to simulate both traditional and spheroid cell culture models by changing the movement rules and initial spatial layout of the cells in accordance with the respective in vitro models. The traditional and spheroid simulations were calibrated to published experimental data in a paired manner, by using the same parameters in both simulations. Within the calibrated simulations, heterogeneous outputs are seen for bacterial count and T cell infiltration into the macrophage core of the spheroid. The simulations also predict that equivalent numbers of activated macrophages do not necessarily result in similar bacterial reductions; that host immune responses can control bacterial growth in both spheroid structure dependent and independent manners; that STAT1 activation is the limiting step in macrophage activation in spheroids; and that drug screening and macrophage activation studies could have different outcomes depending on the in vitro culture used. Future model iterations will be guided by the limitations of the current model, specifically which parts of the output space were harder to reach. This ABM can be used to represent more in vitro Mtb infection models due to its flexible structure, thereby accelerating in vitro discoveries.

Evaluation of fendiline treatment in VP40 system with nucleation-elongation process: a computational model of Ebola virus matrix protein assembly.

Ebola virus (EBOV) infection is threatening human health, especially in Central and West Africa. Limited clinical trials and the requirement of biosafety level-4 laboratories hinder experimental work to advance our understanding of EBOV and the evaluation of treatment. In this work, we use a computational model to study the assembly and budding process of EBOV and evaluate the effect of fendiline on these processes in the context of fluctuating host membrane lipid levels. Our results demonstrate for the first time that the assembly of VP40 filaments may follow the nucleation-elongation theory, as this mechanism is critical to maintaining a pool of VP40 dimers for the maturation and production of virus-like particles (VLPs). We further find that this nucleation-elongation process is likely influenced by fluctuating phosphatidylserine (PS), which can complicate the efficacy of lipid-targeted therapies like fendiline, a drug that lowers cellular PS levels. Our results indicate that fendiline-induced PS reduction may actually increase VLP production at earlier time points (24 h) and under low fendiline concentrations (≤2 µM). However, this effect is transient and does not change the conclusion that fendiline generally decreases VLP production. In the context of fluctuating PS levels, we also conclude that fendiline can be more efficient at the late stage of VLP budding relative to earlier phases. Combination therapy with a VLP budding step-targeted drug may therefore further increase the treatment efficiency of fendiline. Finally, we also show that fendiline-induced PS reduction more effectively lowers VLP production when VP40 expression is high. Taken together, our results provide critical quantitative information on how fluctuating lipid levels (PS) affect EBOV assembly and egress and how this mechanism can be disrupted by lipid-targeting molecules like fendiline. IMPORTANCE: Ebola virus (EBOV) infection can cause deadly hemorrhagic fever, which has a mortality rate of ~50%-90% without treatment. The recent outbreaks in Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo illustrate its threat to human health. Though two antibody-based treatments were approved, mortality rates in the last outbreak were still higher than 30%. This can partly be due to the requirement of advanced medical facilities for current treatments. As a result, it is very important to develop and evaluate new therapies for EBOV infection, especially those that can be easily applied in the developing world. The significance of our research is that we evaluate the potential of lipid-targeted treatments in reducing EBOV assembly and egress. We achieved this goal using the VP40 system combined with a computational approach, which both saves time and lowers cost compared to traditional experimental studies and provides innovative new tools to study viral protein dynamics.

Microglial roles in Alzheimer's disease: An agent-based model to elucidate microglial spatiotemporal response to beta-amyloid.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is characterized by beta-amyloid (Aß) plaques in the brain and widespread neuronal damage. Because of the high drug attrition rates in AD, there is increased interest in characterizing neuroimmune responses to Aß plaques. In response to AD pathology, microglia are innate phagocytotic immune cells that transition into a neuroprotective state and form barriers around plaques. We seek to understand the role of microglia in modifying Aß dynamics and barrier formation. To quantify the influence of individual microglia behaviors (activation, chemotaxis, phagocytosis, and proliferation) on plaque size and barrier coverage, we developed an agent-based model to characterize the spatiotemporal interactions between microglia and Aß. Our model qualitatively reproduces mouse data trends where the fraction of microglia coverage decreases as plaques become larger. In our model, the time to microglial arrival at the plaque boundary is significantly negatively correlated (p < 0.0001) with plaque size, indicating the importance of the time to microglial activation for regulating plaque size. In addition, in silico behavioral knockout simulations show that phagocytosis knockouts have the strongest impact on plaque size, but modest impacts on microglial coverage and activation. In contrast, the chemotaxis knockouts had a strong impact on microglial coverage with a more modest impact on plaque volume and microglial activation. These simulations suggest that phagocytosis, chemotaxis, and replication of activated microglia have complex impacts on plaque volume and coverage, whereas microglial activation remains fairly robust to perturbations of these functions. Thus, our work provides insights into the potential and limitations of targeting microglial activation as a pharmacological strategy for the treatment of AD.

Mathematical modeling indicates that regulatory inhibition of CD8+ T cell cytotoxicity can limit efficacy of IL-15 immunotherapy in cases of high pre-treatment SIV viral load.

Immunotherapeutic cytokines can activate immune cells against cancers and chronic infections. N-803 is an IL-15 superagonist that expands CD8+ T cells and increases their cytotoxicity. N-803 also temporarily reduced viral load in a limited subset of non-human primates infected with simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV), a model of HIV. However, viral suppression has not been observed in all SIV cohorts and may depend on pre-treatment viral load and the corresponding effects on CD8+ T cells. Starting from an existing mechanistic mathematical model of N-803 immunotherapy of SIV, we develop a model that includes activation of SIV-specific and non-SIV-specific CD8+ T cells by antigen, inflammation, and N-803. Also included is a regulatory counter-response that inhibits CD8+ T cell proliferation and function, representing the effects of immune checkpoint molecules and immunosuppressive cells. We simultaneously calibrate the model to two separate SIV cohorts. The first cohort had low viral loads prior to treatment (≈3-4 log viral RNA copy equivalents (CEQ)/mL), and N-803 treatment transiently suppressed viral load. The second had higher pre-treatment viral loads (≈5-7 log CEQ/mL) and saw no consistent virus suppression with N-803. The mathematical model can replicate the viral and CD8+ T cell dynamics of both cohorts based on different pre-treatment viral loads and different levels of regulatory inhibition of CD8+ T cells due to those viral loads (i.e. initial conditions of model). Our predictions are validated by additional data from these and other SIV cohorts. While both cohorts had high numbers of activated SIV-specific CD8+ T cells in simulations, viral suppression was precluded in the high viral load cohort due to elevated inhibition of cytotoxicity. Thus, we mathematically demonstrate how the pre-treatment viral load can influence immunotherapeutic efficacy, highlighting the in vivo conditions and combination therapies that could maximize efficacy and improve treatment outcomes.

Evaluation of Fendiline Treatment in VP40 System with Nucleation-Elongation Process: A Computational Model of Ebola Virus Matrix Protein Assembly.

Ebola virus (EBOV) infection is threatening human health, especially in Central and West Africa. Limited clinical trials and the requirement of biosafety level-4 (BSL-4) laboratories hinders experimental work to advance our understanding of EBOV and evaluation of treatment. In this work, we use a computational model to study the assembly and budding process of EBOV and evaluate the effect of fendiline on these processes. Our results indicate that the assembly of VP40 filaments may follow the nucleation-elongation theory, as it is critical to maintain a pool of VP40 dimer for the maturation and production of virus-like particles (VLPs). We further find that the nucleation-elongation process can also be influenced by phosphatidylserine (PS), which can complicate the efficacy of fendiline, a drug that lowers cellular PS levels. We observe that fendiline may increase VLP production at earlier time points (24 h) and under low concentrations (≤ 2 µM). But this effect is transient and does not change the conclusion that fendiline generally decreases VLP production. We also conclude that fendiline can be more efficient at the stage of VLP budding relative to earlier phases. Combination therapy with a VLP budding step-targeted drug may further increase the treatment efficiency of fendiline. Finally, we also show that fendiline has higher efficacy when VP40 expression is high. While these are single-cell level results based on the VP40 system, it points out a potential way of fendiline application affecting EBOV assembly, which can be further tested in experimental studies with multiple EBOV proteins or live virus.

Reduced macrophage killing of M. avium drives infection risk in post-menopausal patients.

Non-tuberculous mycobacterial (NTM) infections, and Mycobacterium avium Complex (MAC) in particular, affect women at nearly twice the rate of men, and post-menopausal patients are at higher risk than pre-menopausal patients. The reasons for the disproportionate number of cases in women and post-menopausal patients remain unclear. One possibility is that menopause-associated immunological changes contribute to higher MAC prevalence post-menopause compared to pre-menopause. Menopause-associated immune disruption includes increased cytokine and chemokine production, and reduced cytotoxicity and phagocytosis in macrophages. Here we use an agent-based model of bacterial and host immune interactions in the airway to translate the combined impact of menopause-associated cellular immune disruptions to tissue scale outcomes. Our simulations indicate that menopause-associated immune disruptions can result in increased macrophage recruitment. However, this increase in macrophage number is unable to overcome functional deficits in macrophage phagocytosis and killing, since the post-menopausal simulations also show increased bacterial loads. Post-menopausal conditions are also associated with a lower number of cleared infections, and more simulations that have predominantly extracellular bacteria. Taken together, our work quantifies the potential impact of menopause-associated disruptions of innate immune functions on early MAC infection progression. Our findings will support the development of new therapies targeted to this high-risk group of patients.

Agent-based model indicates chemoattractant signaling caused by Mycobacterium avium biofilms in the lung airway increases bacterial loads by spatially diverting macrophages.

Incidence and prevalence of MAC infections are increasing globally, and reinfection is common. Thus, MAC infections present a significant public health challenge. We quantify the impact of MAC biofilms and repeated exposure on infection progression using a computational model of MAC infection in lung airways. MAC biofilms aid epithelial cell invasion, cause premature macrophage apoptosis, and limit antibiotic efficacy. In this computational work we develop an agent-based model that incorporates the interactions between bacteria, biofilm, and immune cells. In this computational model, we perform virtual knockouts to quantify the effects of the biofilm sources (deposited with bacteria vs. formed in the airway), and their impacts on macrophages (inducing apoptosis and slowing phagocytosis). We also quantify the effects of repeated bacterial exposures to assess their impact on infection progression. Our simulations show that chemoattractants released by biofilm-induced apoptosis bias macrophage chemotaxis towards pockets of infected and apoptosed macrophages. This bias results in fewer macrophages finding extracellular bacteria, allowing the extracellular planktonic bacteria to replicate freely. These spatial macrophage trends are further exacerbated with repeated deposition of bacteria. Our model indicates that interventions to abrogate macrophages' apoptotic responses to bacterial biofilms and/or reduce frequency of patient exposure to bacteria will lower bacterial load, and likely overall risk of infection.

"I Think I Am Getting There" Understanding the Computational Identity of Engineering Students Participating in a Computationally Intensive Thermodynamics Course.

In response to the growing computational intensity of the healthcare industry, biomedical engineering (BME) undergraduate education is placing increased emphasis on computation. The presence of substantial gender disparities in many computationally intensive disciplines suggests that the adoption of computational instruction approaches that lack intentionality may exacerbate gender disparities. Educational research suggests that the development of an engineering and computational identity is one factor that can support students' decisions to enter and persist in an engineering major. Discipline-based identity research is used as a lens to understand retention and persistence of students in engineering. Our specific purpose is to apply discipline-based identity research to define and explore the computational identities of undergraduate engineering students who engage in computational environments. This work will inform future studies regarding retention and persistence of students who engage in computational courses. Twenty-eight undergraduate engineering students (20 women, 8 men) from three engineering majors (biomedical engineering, agricultural engineering, and biological engineering) participated in semi-structured interviews. The students discussed their experiences in a computationally-intensive thermodynamics course offered jointly by the Biomedical Engineering and Agricultural & Biological Engineering departments. The transcribed interviews were analyzed through thematic coding. The gender stereotypes associated with computer programming also come part and parcel with computer programming, possibly threatening a student's sense of belonging in engineering. The majority of the participants reported that their computational identity was "in the making." Students' responses also suggested that their engineering identity and their computational identity were in congruence, while some incongruence is found between their engineering identity and a creative identity as well as between computational identity and perceived feminine norms. Responses also indicate that students associate specific skills with having a computational identity. This study's findings present an emergent thematic definition of a computational person constructed from student perceptions and experiences. Instructors can support students' nascent computational identities through intentional mitigation of the gender stereotypes and biases, and by framing assignments to focus on developing specific skills associated with the computational modeling processes.

Systems biology approaches to investigate the role of granulomas in TB-HIV coinfection.

The risk of active tuberculosis disease is 15-21 times higher in those coinfected with human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV) compared to tuberculosis alone, and tuberculosis is the leading cause of death in HIV+ individuals. Mechanisms driving synergy between Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) and HIV during coinfection include: disruption of cytokine balances, impairment of innate and adaptive immune cell functionality, and Mtb-induced increase in HIV viral loads. Tuberculosis granulomas are the interface of host-pathogen interactions. Thus, granuloma-based research elucidating the role and relative impact of coinfection mechanisms within Mtb granulomas could inform cohesive treatments that target both pathogens simultaneously. We review known interactions between Mtb and HIV, and discuss how the structure, function and development of the granuloma microenvironment create a positive feedback loop favoring pathogen expansion and interaction. We also identify key outstanding questions and highlight how coupling computational modeling with in vitro and in vivo efforts could accelerate Mtb-HIV coinfection discoveries.

Phosphatidylserine clustering by the Ebola virus matrix protein is a critical step in viral budding.

Phosphatidylserine (PS) is a critical lipid factor in the assembly and spread of numerous lipid-enveloped viruses. Here, we describe the ability of the Ebola virus (EBOV) matrix protein eVP40 to induce clustering of PS and promote viral budding in vitro, as well as the ability of an FDA-approved drug, fendiline, to reduce PS clustering and subsequent virus budding and entry. To gain mechanistic insight into fendiline inhibition of EBOV replication, multiple in vitro assays were run including imaging, viral budding and viral entry assays. Fendiline lowers PS content in mammalian cells and PS in the plasma membrane, where the ability of VP40 to form new virus particles is greatly lower. Further, particles that form from fendiline-treated cells have altered particle morphology and cannot significantly infect/enter cells. These complementary studies reveal the mechanism by which EBOV matrix protein clusters PS to enhance viral assembly, budding, and spread from the host cell while also laying the groundwork for fundamental drug targeting strategies.

Mechanisms of phosphatidylserine influence on viral production: A computational model of Ebola virus matrix protein assembly.

Ebola virus (EBOV) infections continue to pose a global public health threat, with high mortality rates and sporadic outbreaks in Central and Western Africa. A quantitative understanding of the key processes driving EBOV assembly and budding could provide valuable insights to inform drug development. Here, we use a computational model to evaluate EBOV matrix assembly. Our model focuses on the assembly kinetics of VP40, the matrix protein in EBOV, and its interaction with phosphatidylserine (PS) in the host cell membrane. It has been shown that mammalian cells transfected with VP40-expressing plasmids are capable of producing virus-like particles (VLPs) that closely resemble EBOV virions. Previous studies have also shown that PS levels in the host cell membrane affects VP40 association with the plasma membrane inner leaflet and that lower membrane PS levels result in lower VLP production. Our computational findings indicate that PS may also have a direct influence on VP40 VLP assembly and budding, where a higher PS level will result in a higher VLP budding rate and filament dissociation rate. Our results further suggest that the assembly of VP40 filaments follow the nucleation-elongation theory, where initialization and oligomerization of VP40 are two distinct steps in the assembly process. Our findings advance the current understanding of VP40 VLP formation by identifying new possible mechanisms of PS influence on VP40 assembly. We propose that these mechanisms could inform treatment strategies targeting PS alone or in combination with other VP40 assembly steps.

The Role of Biofilms, Bacterial Phenotypes, and Innate Immune Response in Mycobacterium avium Colonization to Infection.

Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC), is known for colonizing and infecting humans following inhalation of the bacteria. MAC pulmonary disease is notoriously difficult to treat and prone to recurrence. Both the incidence and prevalence MAC pulmonary disease have been increasing globally. MAC is well known to form biofilms in the environment. In vitro, these biofilms have been shown to aid MAC in epithelial cell invasion, protect MAC from phagocytosis, and cause premature apoptosis in macrophages. In vivo, the system of interactions between MAC, biofilms and host macrophages is complex, difficult to replicate in vitro and in animal models, has not been fully characterized. Here we present a three-dimensional agent-based model of a lung airway to help understand how these interactions evolve in the first 14 days post-bacterial inhalation. We parameterized the model using published data and performed uncertainty analysis to characterize outcomes and parameters' effects on those outcomes. Model results show diverse outcomes, including wide ranges of macrophage recruitment levels, and bacterial loads and phenotype distribution. Though most bacteria are phagocytosed by macrophages and remain intracellular, there are also many simulations in which extracellular bacteria continue to drive the colonization and infection. Initial parameters dictating host immune levels, bacterial loads introduced to the airway, and biofilm conditions have significant and lasting impacts on the course of these results. Additionally, though macrophage recruitment is key for suppressing bacterial loads, there is evidence of significant excess recruitment that fail to impact bacterial numbers. These results highlight a need and identify a path for further exploration into the inhalation events in MAC infection. Early infection dynamics could have lasting impacts on the development of nodular bronchiectatic or fibrocavitary disease as well as inform possible preventative and treatment intervention targeting biofilm-macrophage interactions.

Mathematical modeling of N-803 treatment in SIV-infected non-human primates.

Immunomodulatory drugs could contribute to a functional cure for Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). Interleukin-15 (IL-15) promotes expansion and activation of CD8+ T cell and natural killer (NK) cell populations. In one study, an IL-15 superagonist, N-803, suppressed Simian Immunodeficiency Virus (SIV) in non-human primates (NHPs) who had received prior SIV vaccination. However, viral suppression attenuated with continued N-803 treatment, partially returning after long treatment interruption. While there is evidence of concurrent drug tolerance, immune regulation, and viral escape, the relative contributions of these mechanisms to the observed viral dynamics have not been quantified. Here, we utilize mathematical models of N-803 treatment in SIV-infected macaques to estimate contributions of these three key mechanisms to treatment outcomes: 1) drug tolerance, 2) immune regulation, and 3) viral escape. We calibrated our model to viral and lymphocyte responses from the above-mentioned NHP study. Our models track CD8+ T cell and NK cell populations with N-803-dependent proliferation and activation, as well as viral dynamics in response to these immune cell populations. We compared mathematical models with different combinations of the three key mechanisms based on Akaike Information Criterion and important qualitative features of the NHP data. Two minimal models were capable of reproducing the observed SIV response to N-803. In both models, immune regulation strongly reduced cytotoxic cell activation to enable viral rebound. Either long-term drug tolerance or viral escape (or some combination thereof) could account for changes to viral dynamics across long breaks in N-803 treatment. Theoretical explorations with the models showed that less-frequent N-803 dosing and concurrent immune regulation blockade (e.g. PD-L1 inhibition) may improve N-803 efficacy. However, N-803 may need to be combined with other immune therapies to countermand viral escape from the CD8+ T cell response. Our mechanistic model will inform such therapy design and guide future studies.

Iterative community-driven development of a SARS-CoV-2 tissue simulator.

The 2019 novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is a pathogen of critical significance to international public health. Knowledge of the interplay between molecular-scale virus-receptor interactions, single-cell viral replication, intracellular-scale viral transport, and emergent tissue-scale viral propagation is limited. Moreover, little is known about immune system-virus-tissue interactions and how these can result in low-level (asymptomatic) infections in some cases and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in others, particularly with respect to presentation in different age groups or pre-existing inflammatory risk factors. Given the nonlinear interactions within and among each of these processes, multiscale simulation models can shed light on the emergent dynamics that lead to divergent outcomes, identify actionable "choke points" for pharmacologic interventions, screen potential therapies, and identify potential biomarkers that differentiate patient outcomes. Given the complexity of the problem and the acute need for an actionable model to guide therapy discovery and optimization, we introduce and iteratively refine a prototype of a multiscale model of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in lung tissue. The first prototype model was built and shared internationally as open source code and an online interactive model in under 12 hours, and community domain expertise is driving regular refinements. In a sustained community effort, this consortium is integrating data and expertise across virology, immunology, mathematical biology, quantitative systems physiology, cloud and high performance computing, and other domains to accelerate our response to this critical threat to international health. More broadly, this effort is creating a reusable, modular framework for studying viral replication and immune response in tissues, which can also potentially be adapted to related problems in immunology and immunotherapy.

In Vitro Granuloma Models of Tuberculosis: Potential and Challenges.

Despite intensive research efforts, several fundamental disease processes for tuberculosis (TB) remain poorly understood. A central enigma is that host immunity is necessary to control disease yet promotes transmission by causing lung immunopathology. Our inability to distinguish these processes makes it challenging to design rational novel interventions. Elucidating basic immune mechanisms likely requires both in vivo and in vitro analyses, since Mycobacterium tuberculosis is a highly specialized human pathogen. The classic immune response is the TB granuloma organized in three dimensions within extracellular matrix. Several groups are developing cell culture granuloma models. In January 2018, NIAID convened a workshop, entitled "3-D Human in vitro TB Granuloma Model" to advance the field. Here, we summarize the arguments for developing advanced TB cell culture models and critically review those currently available. We discuss how integrating complementary approaches, specifically organoids and mathematical modeling, can maximize progress, and conclude by discussing future challenges and opportunities.

Fluoroquinolone Efficacy against Tuberculosis Is Driven by Penetration into Lesions and Activity against Resident Bacterial Populations.

Fluoroquinolones represent the pillar of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) treatment, with moxifloxacin, levofloxacin, or gatifloxacin being prescribed to MDR-TB patients. Recently, several clinical trials of "universal" drug regimens, aiming to treat drug-susceptible and drug-resistant TB, have included a fluoroquinolone. In the absence of clinical data comparing their side-by-side efficacies in controlled MDR-TB trials, a pharmacological rationale is needed to guide the selection of the most efficacious fluoroquinolone. The present studies were designed to test the hypothesis that fluoroquinolone concentrations (pharmacokinetics) and activity (pharmacodynamics) at the site of infection are better predictors of efficacy than the plasma concentrations and potency measured in standard growth inhibition assays and are better suited to determinations of whether one of the fluoroquinolones outperforms the others in rabbits with active TB. We first measured the penetration of these fluoroquinolones in lung lesion compartments, and their potency against bacterial populations that reside in each compartment, to compute lesion-centric pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) parameters. PK modeling methods were used to quantify drug penetration from plasma to tissues at human-equivalent doses. On the basis of these metrics, moxifloxacin emerged with a clear advantage, whereas plasma-based PK/PD favored levofloxacin (the ranges of the plasma AUC/MIC ratio [i.e., the area under the concentration-time curve over 24 h in the steady state divided by the MIC] are 46 to 86 for moxifloxacin and 74 to 258 for levofloxacin). A comparative efficacy trial in the rabbit model of active TB demonstrated the superiority of moxifloxacin in reducing bacterial burden at the lesion level and in sterilizing cellular and necrotic lesions. Collectively, these results show that PK/PD data obtained at the site of infection represent an adequate predictor of drug efficacy against TB and constitute the baseline required to explore synergies, antagonism, and drug-drug interactions in fluoroquinolone-containing regimens.

Integrating Non-human Primate, Human, and Mathematical Studies to Determine the Influence of BCG Timing on H56 Vaccine Outcomes.

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death by an infectious agent, and developing an effective vaccine is an important component of the WHO's EndTB Strategy. Non-human primate (NHP) models of vaccination are crucial to TB vaccine development and have informed design of subsequent human trials. However, challenges emerge when translating results from animal models to human applications, and connecting post-vaccination immunological measurements to infection outcomes. The H56:IC31 vaccine is a candidate currently in phase I/IIa trials. H56 is a subunit vaccine that is comprised of 3 mycobacterial antigens: ESAT6, Ag85B, and Rv2660, formulated in IC31 adjuvant. H56, as a boost to Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG, the TB vaccine that is currently used in most countries world-wide) demonstrates improved protection (compared to BCG alone) in mouse and NHP models of TB, and the first human study of H56 reported strong antigen-specific T cell responses to the vaccine. We integrated NHP and human data with mathematical modeling approaches to improve our understanding of NHP and human response to vaccine. We use a mathematical model to describe T-cell priming, proliferation, and differentiation in lymph nodes and blood, and calibrate the model to NHP and human blood data. Using the model, we demonstrate the impact of BCG timing on H56 vaccination response and reveal a general immunogenic response to H56 following BCG prime. Further, we use uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to isolate mechanisms driving differences in vaccination response observed between NHP and human datasets. This study highlights the power of a systems biology approach: integration of multiple modalities to better understand a complex biological system.

Multifidelity Analysis for Predicting Rare Events in Stochastic Computational Models of Complex Biological Systems.

Rare events such as genetic mutations or cell-cell interactions are important contributors to dynamics in complex biological systems, eg, in drug-resistant infections. Computational approaches can help analyze rare events that are difficult to study experimentally. However, analyzing the frequency and dynamics of rare events in computational models can also be challenging due to high computational resource demands, especially for high-fidelity stochastic computational models. To facilitate analysis of rare events in complex biological systems, we present a multifidelity analysis approach that uses medium-fidelity analysis (Monte Carlo simulations) and/or low-fidelity analysis (Markov chain models) to analyze high-fidelity stochastic model results. Medium-fidelity analysis can produce large numbers of possible rare event trajectories for a single high-fidelity model simulation. This allows prediction of both rare event dynamics and probability distributions at much lower frequencies than high-fidelity models. Low-fidelity analysis can calculate probability distributions for rare events over time for any frequency by updating the probabilities of the rare event state space after each discrete event of the high-fidelity model. To validate the approach, we apply multifidelity analysis to a high-fidelity model of tuberculosis disease. We validate the method against high-fidelity model results and illustrate the application of multifidelity analysis in predicting rare event trajectories, performing sensitivity analyses and extrapolating predictions to very low frequencies in complex systems. We believe that our approach will complement ongoing efforts to enable accurate prediction of rare event dynamics in high-fidelity computational models.